The Democratic Party has been worried (with good reason) about their chances in the midterm congressional elections and beyond. Their brand has suffered, and voters aren't exactly flocking to their banner. But there are signs of life here and there, and a big one just happened in Iowa. Yesterday, a Democrat won a special election to the state senate, which will deny the Republicans a two-thirds supermajority in the chamber.

How big a deal is this for Democrats? Nobody really knows, at this point. Democrats have actually been doing very well in special elections held since the 2024 presidential elections, as even when they lose races they improve their margins from the 2024 contest. Does this signify a larger shift that will become apparent next November, or do special elections just not matter that much? That's the real question here, and we won't know the answer to it until the midterm votes are counted.

Still, it's hard not to be heartened by what just happened. Catelin Drey just beat her Republican opponent with an impressive 55 percent of the vote, a victory margin of 10 points. As Salon reports, "[Donald] Trump won the area that includes District 1 by a wide margin of 23 points." That is an enormous shift in the vote, in less than a year's time.

What's even more heartening is that this Democratic upset victory wasn't a one-off. Back in January, Democrat Mike Zimmer beat his Republican opponent by 52-48 percent in another state senate special election. This was also in a district that Trump had won by more than 20 points. And Iowa's not the only state where Democrats have been doing a lot better than 2024.

These two elections shifted the balance of power in Iowa from the GOP holding a majority of 35 seats to the Democrats' 15, down to only 33-17. That may not sound like a big deal, but it denies the Republicans absolute control over the chamber, since Democrats now hold more than one-third of the seats.

Shifting the vote margins a whopping 20-plus points is incredibly impressive, but it might not turn out to be indicative of a larger trend. Special elections (for state legislative seats especially) are low-turnout affairs, for the most part. From the numbers that have been reported, only 24 percent of the district's voters turned out for yesterday's election. That's not a lot. But hopefully, it shows to some extent that Democrats are now a lot more motivated than Republicans to get out and vote. It is one way of expressing disapproval at Trump and everything he's been doing, which is a big motivator for many right now. And even in Iowa -- a state that has shifted from purple to red over the past decade or so -- Trump's job approval rating is five points underwater.

The national party was apparently instrumental in yesterday's victory, which is also an encouraging sign. This led the Democratic Party leader to take a victory lap of sorts:

[Catelin] Drey drew support from the Democratic National Committee, which said it mobilized more than 30,000 volunteers for the race and argued the outcome was a warning sign for the GOP.

"Iowans are seeing Republicans for who they are: self-serving liars who will throw their constituents under the bus to rubber stamp Donald Trump's disastrous agenda -- and they're ready for change," DNC Chairman Ken Martin said in a statement.

This gives Martin a boost when he could really use one. Not all of the Democratic National Committee members are happy about his leadership, and at their recent national meeting there's been a contentious measure on the war in Gaza that has split the party. Martin hasn't been all that impressive in his fundraising efforts, so proving that he knows how to effectively invest in state races could be helpful for him right now.

Chalking up a string of victories in state races and even U.S. House special elections is no guarantee of success in the midterms. It can prove to be a good indicator of voter sentiment, but then again sometimes it isn't -- that's about the best that can be said about previous performance in this realm. Also, we are over a year away from next November, and anything could happen in the meantime. Voter sentiment may shift in ways no one expects due to unforeseen events, and about the only thing that can be said with any certainty is that whatever voters are talking about right now is going to be different than what they're talking about a year from now.

Still, winning is better than losing. And Democrats are on a real streak of winning in the special elections that have been happening. So maybe the increased motivation of Democratic voters to turn out and vote will last until the midterms. For now, the signs certainly do look good.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant