After two big meetings between Donald Trump and the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, and various Europeans, it's hard to figure exactly where things stand. Was anything accomplished at all? If so, what?

While Trump has been cheerfully optimistic in his statements, the Europeans seem a lot more cautious and guarded in their outlook. Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin, though, don't exactly seem filled with any of this happy spirit. In fact, Russia keeps contradicting what Trump and the rest of them are claiming has been accomplished.

The most telling of the cheerful optimism that Trump displays is his apparent belief that he and Putin are great buddies, and that Putin really desires an end to this war. Neither of these things seem likely to be true, or at least certainly not to the degree that Trump believes. This was best evidenced by something an open microphone caught Trump saying to the president of France: "I think [Vladimir Putin] wants to make a deal. I think he wants to make a deal for me. Do you understand that? As crazy as it sounds." To Trump, Putin wants to be Trump's buddy so badly he'll make a peace deal just to please Trump. And yes, knowing Putin, that does sound pretty crazy.

All the developments during both big meetings were breathlessly reported by the Western media, without much in the way of confirmation from any Russian sources. Trump came away from his Alaska summit stating that Putin had agreed that Ukraine could have some security guarantees that would be similar to the Article 5 guarantee that NATO nations have -- a promise that if any of them are invaded, the others will react as if they were invaded as well and they'll all come to the rescue. Trump said that Putin agreed to meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but was vague on whether this meeting would also include Trump. Trump also said that a second summit between him and Putin (with or without Zelenskyy) had been agreed to.

Putin has confirmed none of this. What Putin got out of the summit meeting (other than the recognition and acceptance by a Western nation that he hasn't had since the war began) was to end all of Trump's threats against him. Heading into the meeting, Trump had said he'd be unhappy if a ceasefire wasn't agreed to and that there would be "very serious consequences" if it didn't happen. Exiting the meeting, Trump's new line is that if he makes good on any threat, then Putin will walk away from the table and there will be no peace agreement possible. So the net effect of the summit was: no ceasefire, no peace deal, and no more talk of sanctions or tariffs or any other ways of pressuring Russia. This was a loss for the American side and a gain for the Russian side.

Zelenskyy quickly set up his own meeting with Trump, and then enlisted the help of seven European leaders to back him up. His first White House meeting with Trump was so disastrous that he probably figured things would go a lot better with some other voices in the room. He appears to have been right in this calculation, as yesterday's meeting did go noticeably better, at least on the surface.

Much of the talk was apparently on what security guarantees Ukraine would get in any peace deal. Trump has been pretty vague about the details (he's been pretty vague about all of these negotiations, in fact), but what seems to be emerging is the prospect of stationing European troops from at least a few countries somewhere on Ukrainian soil. Perhaps not on the front lines, but they'd still be a deterrent if Putin decided to invade Ukraine all over again. That's the idea, at any rate. America would somehow coordinate this effort, but without putting American soldiers on the ground. Trump spoke vaguely about American air assets helping out, but again there were no actual specifics.

The Kremlin pushed back hard on the entire idea. They are calling it unacceptable to have any European soldiers on Ukrainian soil. After all, if there were Europeans and some sort of Article 5 style guarantee, then Russia would never just be facing Ukraine alone across a battlefield again.

Things are just as vague on the proposed next summit meeting(s). Trump shifts in how he talks about it, but as of the moment the plan seems to be to have Putin and Zelenskyy hold their own summit, and then to hold a trilateral summit adding Trump soon afterwards. Trump speaks of these meetings happening in a very short timeframe -- on the order of the next couple of weeks or so.

Neither the Kremlin nor Putin have publicly agreed to any of these meetings. The Kremlin pushed back on a quick summit between Putin and Zelenskyy, saying that preparatory meetings of lower-level representatives would be necessary first, and then they could slowly build up to a meeting between the principals. The Russian foreign minister said on Russian television that any summit would happen "step by step, gradually, starting from the expert level and then going through all the necessary stages." No timeline is given in these statements.

Some of the Europeans pushed Trump to get back to the idea of a ceasefire, but somehow Putin seems to have convinced Trump that such a thing is not only unnecessary but would somehow be a step backwards. The Europeans may have at least started to get Trump back on board with the concept, but for the time being Trump is still speaking rather dismissively about the benefits of imposing a ceasefire -- he seems to have bought the Russian stance that everyone should work towards a final peace deal without bothering with a ceasefire in the meantime.

Through all of this, Putin hasn't really budged on his demands. The thorny subject of ceding territory reportedly wasn't even discussed at either of Trump's meetings, showing how far away any actual deal still is.

Putin, at this point, holds all the cards. Trump is desperately trying to wrap all of this up as quickly as possible, while Putin is content to stall for as long as possible. Trump wants Putin to meet with Zelenskyy, and then have a meeting with all three of them present. Putin doesn't seem especially interested in talking with Zelenskyy at all. Trump wants to declare peace and collect his Nobel Peace Prize, but Putin isn't anywhere near as eager as Trump, which (again) gives Putin the advantage.

The Europeans are a lot more clear-eyed in their assessment of where things stand. Here's just one example:

"In Anchorage and in Washington, it was a triumph of empty vagueness and meaningless commitments," said Gérard Araud, who served as France's ambassador to the United States during Mr. Trump's first term. "In both cases, no firm decision has been taken. Nothing has changed."

That seems about right.

Maybe Trump's optimism will win the day. But a far more likely scenario is that one of two things happens in the next few weeks. Either Putin will endlessly stall, pushing out any future summit meetings until some condition or another is met, or Putin will meet with either or both of Trump and Zelenskyy and not much will be decided. Summit meetings are filled with pomp and circumstance, which Trump loves, but if they don't have any substance to them they are ultimately pointless. So far, none of the things that Trump says Putin has agreed to have been confirmed by Putin or the Kremlin. So while it certainly has been a whirlwind of diplomatic ceremony, afterwards not much has really changed.

The next two weeks will be critical to see whether any of this has created some sort of momentum towards actual dealmaking, or whether Putin is just playing Trump and the rest of the world for time.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant