Back in the before-times... back when politics was fairly normal... we all had a special name for the time of year when Congress gives itself a 5- or 6-week vacation and political stories are thin on the ground. It was called the "Silly Season." It earned this moniker because in the dearth of actual political news being made, the mainstream media political types would zero in on some story that was (for one reason or another) just completely ridiculous. Mountains were made out of molehills. Idiotic stories would get blown out of proportion and enormous amounts of ink and airtime were devoted to dissecting whatever silly story everyone was obsessing about. A good time would be had by all, until Congress finally returned in September and started generating some actual political news once again.

Of course, all that changed with Donald Trump, since during his first term in office everything was: "All silly, all the time," no matter what month it happened to be. His "flood the zone" tactic of providing a firehose of distractions was always on full-blast, and so the news media always had some shiny object to chase no matter what time of year it was. August was no sillier than any other month, so the term fell out of use, for the most part.

This year, however, Silly Season seems to have come early, and indeed it is threatening to consume Donald Trump in a way never seen before -- because the pressure is coming from within his own party. And there's another new thing happening as well, because the story is so prominent that Trump's distractions simply are not working. Both of these are unprecedented events, for him.

Consider the fact that in the past week alone, the Trump administration has released an enormous trove of documents from the investigation of the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King Junior, and they've accused a former U.S. president of treason and sedition. Neither story managed to dethrone the Epstein files as the lead story, even though in normal times both of those stories would be blockbuster political earthquakes. But neither distraction worked.

There have been plenty of minor attempts at distraction as well, as Trump flails around complaining about the Washington football team's name and other equally petty attempts to change the subject. None of these have worked either.

Trump tried a misdirection, by punting the decision-making to federal judges, promising that he'd release the grand jury transcripts in the Epstein files -- if the judges allowed him to. One judge has already denied this attempt, although the matter is in front of a different judge in a different state as well. But seeing as how the Trump administration has no valid legal reason to ask for the grand jury files to be publicly released, and seeing as how any such transcripts are supposed to be held in secret except in very specific cases, it doesn't look like any of them will be released. Which is precisely what Trump intended, because he think's he'll be able to defuse the MAGA anger by just saying: "We tried, but the judge wouldn't let us."

This misdirection isn't working either, however, because the MAGA people recognize an attempt at pulling the wool over their eyes when they see it. In the first place the grand jury transcripts are only a tiny fraction of the files, and in the second place the testimony probably doesn't name the names the MAGA crowd wants to hear.

Of course, the story is not exactly a silly one, at its core. Sex trafficking and pedophilia are incredibly serious and heinous crimes. But (as Trump keeps trying to point out) the whole thing is six years old, so why has it become such a big deal now? Unfortunately for him, the answer to that is: "Because you made it a big deal." Fanning the flames of the "Epstein client list" during the campaign is coming back to bite Trump now, since he is currently in the position of being seen as directing the cover-up. Which is not too surprising, since as anyone with half a brain already knows, Trump's name is probably all over those files. In fact, the Department of Justice spent marathon sessions combing through all of the files earlier this year to flag Trump (and other prominent names), and then Trump was informed that his name was indeed all over the files. So it's not too hard to understand why Trump now desperately wants everyone to start talking about something (anything!) else. The fascinating part of the story is that he has been largely unsuccessful in distracting everyone (including his own easily-distractible base). Even accusing Barack Obama of treason didn't move the needle.

Trump has seen his approval ratings take a big hit during all of this, it is worth pointing out. Since the announcement (buried in the July 4th holiday weekend) that no more Epstein files would be released, Trump's numbers have gone down in a big way. Gallup just released their most-recent poll, which can only be described as "dismal" for Trump:

Six months into his second term, President Donald Trump's job approval rating has dipped to 37%, the lowest of this term and just slightly higher than his all-time worst rating of 34% at the end of his first term. Trump's rating has fallen 10 percentage points among U.S. adults since he began his second term in January, including a 17-point decline among independents, to 29%, matching his lowest rating with that group in either of his terms.

Trump's job disapproval number was 58 percent, meaning he is now a whopping 21 points below water. This poll was taken over a two-week period, beginning right after the Epstein files announcement was made, so it reflects a lot of what has happened since. And, to be fair, most other polls still show Trump a bit higher -- but this wasn't the only poll out this week to show Trump 21 points below water either.

Usually (back in the before-times) the Silly Season big story would appear almost without warning and take most politicians completely by surprise. This year that's not going to happen, since Democrats already smell blood in the water and are primed to hammer the issue home throughout the August break. Trump can continue his efforts to distract, but the Epstein files scandal isn't just going to suddenly fade away. When Congress returns, the first order of business for the House is going to be forcing a vote on a bill that would force Trump to release everything. That alone guarantees the story will still be alive come September.

Of course, even in that Gallup poll Trump still retains a high job approval rating from Republicans (89 percent). It won't be until his polling among Republicans starts to head downward that he'll be truly politically weakened. Which may or may not happen. Will the issue continue to grow during the August break? Will this year's Silly Season actually produce a profound shift in the political landscape, as Trump loses the support of a large slice of his base? It is too early to tell, but the possibility certainly does exist -- in a way it has never existed before for Trump. His superpower of being able to always distract the media and the entire political discussion seems to have met the kryptonite of a conspiracy theory Trump himself used for political advantage. But if Trump truly has lost his touch at constantly distracting everyone, this could wind up being the most important Silly Season ever.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant