Congress is eagerly getting ready to take an enormous chunk of time off once again. The Republican House of Representatives even pushed their final day in session up by one day, to get a jump on their extended "August break." But to be fair, they didn't do this because they were over-eager to go on vacation, instead they did it out of political necessity, since they had earlier announced that there wouldn't be any more floor votes until after the break. And they did this because they are terrified of the entire Epstein files issue. So my question at this point is what are their own voters going to say to them when they do go back to their home districts? Are we going to see lots of videos of town halls where their constituents rake them over the coals for not forcing the public release of the full Epstein files, or will it be more of a non-issue?

This is a rather important question, because it will be some measure of how much the MAGA base really does care about the issue. Up until now, we've heard from Donald Trump and the administration, Republicans in Congress, and popular right-wing influencers and journalists. But we haven't really heard from the actual GOP base voters in any big way.

Some Republicans in Congress have been claiming that the calls coming into their office are now "almost 100 percent" about the Epstein files. Others have claimed that "nobody has been mentioning it." Either Republican voters in differing districts care quite differently about the issue, or somebody's lying. And it will be interesting to see which one of these it is.

As I have pointed out before, the issue is a lose-lose one for Republicans in Congress (especially in the House). They have two basic choices: do what the MAGA base is screaming for and vote for a binding measure that would force Trump to release all the Epstein files -- and by doing so perhaps risk Trump's wrath; or vote against the release of the files and stay in Trump's good graces, but risk the wrath of the MAGA base. That's a tough choice for a Republican these days. The wrath of Trump is blatant and in-your-face, but the wrath of MAGA will likely show up as a whole lot of voters so disillusioned that they stop going to vote altogether -- which could be crucial in next year's midterms.

How things stand in Congress: one Republican (Thomas Massie) has been like a bulldog on the issue, co-sponsoring a bill that would force the release of all the Epstein files. Democrats have jumped on board this train, for obvious reasons (it puts Republicans in a lose-lose bind). Most Democrats don't care that much about releasing the files, they are simply making lots and lots of opportunistic political hay over the issue (since they are assuming that the reason Trump doesn't want the files released is that Trump's name is all over them -- which at this point seems a pretty safe assumption to make).

Both Massie and the Democrats have been forcing votes on the issue. They forced a vote in the Rules Committee (which has to approve each bill before it hits the House floor) and they even forced a procedural floor vote last week. One Republican on the Rules Committee voted for the measure, but it wasn't enough. Republicans arm-twisted enough of their members to make the floor vote fail too (but just barely). But this has caused a lot of frustration among some Republican House members, because deep down they really do want to vote to force the files' release.

This week, Massie and the Democrats moved again to force a Rules Committee vote (they are attaching their measure as an amendment to pretty much everything that goes through the Rules Committee). Republicans on the committee didn't want to vote on it again, so they just adjourned the committee for the rest of the week instead. This punts the issue past the August break, since no bill (other than one that can get an enormous amount of bipartisan support) can reach the floor without approval from the Rules Committee.

Meanwhile, Massie and the Democrats have made another move -- to force the speaker to bring the bill to the floor over his own objections with a "discharge petition." This is a method to force bills to the floor, and it only requires 218 signatures (a majority) to succeed. It already has enough co-sponsors to succeed, if every Democrat joins in. But there is a "seven legislative days" pause before they are officially allowed to start getting signatures. And this pause will also kick the discharge petition past the August break (which is what the party leadership wants right now -- "let's buy some time").

So one way or another, it seems likely that if the issue is still resonating hotly among the Republican base, that when they all come back to work in September, they will have to vote on whether to force Trump's White House to do what Trump doesn't want to do: release the files.

Which is why I will be very interested in whether Republican House members' constituents are still intensely angry about the issue... or not.

Now, Republicans these days are incredibly shy about meeting with their constituents. This began when seriously irate people started showing up at their town hall meetings and demanding answers over the Republican agenda (such as slashing Medicaid funding, for one). So the Republican leadership advised members of their caucus that maybe it would be a good idea not to meet with their voters -- at least in any kind of open forum. Maybe virtual video town halls might be better? Because that way, they can pre-screen which questions they answer and just ignore any irate constituents. Problem solved!

But some Republican politicians still have been continuing to hold open meetings with the public in their home districts. So we should see at least a few of these happening in the next couple of weeks. Which should answer one very big question: is the issue still hotly resonating with the MAGA base, or not? Will GOP members of Congress face screaming scorn for not forcing the files' release, or will it be largely a non-issue?

It could go either way. Trump has been desperately flailing around trying to either distract everyone (Let's rename the Washington football team again! Hey, here's some M.L.K. Jr. assassination files!) or to somehow do something with the appearance of releasing more stuff (without releasing the full files). Trump's move to release the grand jury testimony is a feint (since it is a tiny fraction of what is in the files), but maybe it is enough to satisfy the conspiracy theorists? Or maybe they'll rally behind Trump suing the Wall Street Journal?

One way or another, an answer is going to emerge. Either the issue is still red-hot among the GOP base or it isn't. If it is, then watch for Republican politicians to try to weasel out of not voting for it already while strongly vowing to vote for it when they return to Congress after the break. If it's not, then Massie's discharge petition won't get enough signatures to succeed, since GOP House members can tell each other: "Nobody cares about it anymore."

Either way, I will be watching to see which zeitgeist emerges from actual MAGA voters. Especially if they show up at Republican House members' town halls.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant