Why is Russia so special to Donald Trump? Why does Trump always give Vladimir Putin a free pass? Those are questions that have long been asked (for various reasons), ever since Trump entered politics. But no matter what the actual answer is (many have speculated, but nobody truly knows, other than Trump himself), the fact that Trump treats Vladimir Putin's Russia with kid gloves is an incontrovertible fact.

The most recent glaring example of this is how Russia has (up to this point) been declared exempt from Trump's global trade war. Trump has been all over the map with his tariff threats, but one part of it has remained consistent: a 10 percent tariff on all countries, no matter what. This initially included every country Team Trump could find on a map -- including one solely populated by penguins -- but not Russia.

Trump was then convinced to back down on his "reciprocal tariff" scheme, so he paused them all for 90 days -- except the 10 percent across-the-board tariff on everyone (except Russia). He then extended this extension when he couldn't get any trade deals at all and had to settle for two (now three) handshake agreements that have no concrete details to them (at least, not that have been released to the public). But even these agreements contained that baseline 10 percent tariff. It's been declared non-negotiable, which could be one reason why the rest of the world isn't exactly eager to cut new trade deals with Trump.

But Russia is not part of this baseline. Trump has slapped exactly zero tariffs on Russia. To be fair, Russia isn't the only country which was made exempt. North Korea and Iran were also left off the tariff list, and when asked about it Trump would reply that there was essentially zero trade between America and these pariah nations, therefore a tariff would be meaningless on them.

But that's not quite true. In fact, due at least partly to the absence of tariffs, American farmers are now actually boosting Russia's economy. Farmers use various forms of fertilizer to grow crops. Two of them -- urea and urea ammonium nitrate -- are increasingly being supplied by Russia. Last year, American farmers imported $1.3 billion of these two fertilizers from Russia, and "is on a pace to bring in even more this year." The U.S. now imports 46 percent of the urea ammonium nitrate farmers use from Russia. And it seems that figure is increasing:

But recent tariff volatility has actually caused an increase in fertilizer imports from Russia. While Mr. Trump has subjected most countries to a flat 10 percent tariff, Russia has been able to avoid that. Total imports of urea into the United States are down 18 percent this year, but imports of urea from Russia are up 34 percent, [The Fertilizer Institute's Senior Economist Veronica] Nigh said. Total imports of all goods from Russia were up 23 percent during the first five months of 2025, according to the Census Bureau.

Note that last sentence: fertilizers aren't the only thing America imports from Russia. But back to the farmers. The two fertilizers are not exactly rare. Farmers could import the substance from other countries or we could make more of our own. But in either case, the price would go up:

If the United States no longer imports urea from Russia, there could be shortages. Should American fertilizer companies produce more, farmers would have to agree to pay more so the companies had an incentive to switch to making it. Anybody can make urea-based fertilizers, but they require a great deal of energy. Russia's vast stores of natural gas make it more cost-effective to develop there.

Trump campaigned boasting that he would end the war in Ukraine "on Day One." He promised, over and over again, that it would be an absolute piece of cake to stop the war. He'd just make a few phone calls and the whole thing would be over. No problem.

Yesterday marked the first six months of Trump's second term, and he is no closer to a ceasefire in Ukraine than he was on Day One. He ominously warned Russia recently that they had to agree to some sort of ceasefire "in 50 days" or Trump would get tough with the tariffs. He gave them almost two months, for no apparent reason. He even had been signalling that he now supported a measure in Congress that would slap some Draconian tariff rates on both Russia and its trading partners, but once he announced his 50-day pause all activity in Congress on the matter ground to a halt.

The tariffs in this proposed bill are steep -- 100 percent on Russia, and a whopping 500 percent on any nation that continued to buy oil and gas from Russia. But the question is whether Trump truly has the stomach for such drastic action. He has backed down from most of his other tariff threats, including many nations Trump seems to have a personal hatred for. Trump makes the news when he issues new threats, but so far the only times he has followed through have been with the universal 10 percent baseline and in his negotiations with China (which has been hit with a 30 percent tariff while trade talks continue). Trump has so far not made good on any of his other threats. So why should anyone believe that he's really going to get that tough on Russia?

Even in the middle of a war Trump is trying to stop, he refuses to even slap the baseline 10 percent tariff on Russia. He could have done so when he announced that 50-day pause, as a sort of warning shot across Russia's bow... but he didn't.

Many have pointed out how Trump loves to role-play as a tough-guy strongman, while heaping admiration on other world leaders who actually are strongmen. This has long been Trump's posture with Putin, in fact. Putin, quite obviously, is not afraid of telling Trump: "No." No, he won't suddenly stop attacking Ukraine and no, he won't end the war just because Trump wants him to. Trump seems incapable of standing up to Putin in any way, perhaps because he knows that Putin doesn't care one whit what Trump wants him to do.

So does anyone really believe Trump is going to suddenly smack Russia with a 100 percent tariff rate? We are less than two weeks away from the rest of the world's extension deadline on the reciprocal tariffs (set to go into effect August 1st), and no deals seem to be forthcoming. If Trump has to punt the ball again -- offering up an extension on the extension to the extension, as it were -- then the acronym "TACO" is going to be bandied about pretty freely. If Trump always chickens out even with countries he loathes, who really believes that he's going to get tough on Vladimir Putin? Putin will certainly be watching to see what Trump does when August dawns, that's for sure. If the deadline goes by and Trump punts to a new one once again, Putin's just going to laugh when Trump threatens 100 percent tariffs on Russia.

Because Trump has so far given Russia a free pass, American farmers are becoming more reliant on Russia for fertilizer. This means that if Trump actually does levy a tariff on Russia (even the baseline 10 percent), it is going to drive costs for farmers up. Trump could exempt fertilizer from any tariff he announces, of course, but in doing so he'd be limiting the impact on the Russian economy.

The safe money (call it the "TACO bet") is that Trump will not slap any tariffs on Russia at all. If a ceasefire isn't announced, Trump will say that the peace negotiations are so delicate that he can't upset them with a new tariff. If a peace deal is actually reached, it will likely include America agreeing not to levy tariffs on Russia. Either way, they will get a free pass. If we get to the 50-day deadline, Trump will just postpone it, like he has all the other tariff threats he's been making. Which is why Putin must be laughing at all of Trump's tough-guy talk about 100 percent tariffs. If Trump won't even slap the baseline 10 percent tariff on Russia (as Trump has done with almost every other nation on the planet), then who really expects he'll actually follow through at all? Russia will continue getting a free pass, because with Trump they always do.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant