To Dream The Impossible Dream
Will Democrats have an opening to pick up a Senate seat next year... in Texas? Personally, I have to remain skeptical, since Texas has long been the source of perennial disappointment for Democrats who have the dream of "flipping Texas blue." It's an enticing dream, to be sure, because Texas would be incredibly pivotal in electing a Democrat back into the White House. Flipping Texas blue in the Electoral College would make it practically impossible for a Republican to put together the 270 votes needed to become president. But flipping it blue even in a Senate race (or a governor's race, for that matter) has not happened yet, despite several exciting campaigns and lots of money donated to the cause. After all, even Ted Cruz -- one of the most-disliked senators around -- managed to win re-election. So it's a stretch, at best, to imagine John Cornyn being defeated by a Democrat next year.
But the dynamics of the race could actually give Democrats an opening, as Politico points out today. Here's how things are shaping up:
Sen. John Cornyn is anathema to many Republican primary voters. Ken Paxton, a state attorney general, may be too tarred by scandal to win a general election.
Ten months out, the Texas Senate primary is shaping up as the GOP trainwreck of the 2026 election cycle, a cash-burning demolition derby that threatens to fracture the party, force the White House to intervene and perhaps even put an otherwise safe seat at risk in November.
"I hate to see that kind of internecine warfare in my party," said Rep. Mike McCaul (R-Texas). "It'll be an ugly one."
Cornyn, as the article goes on to point out, has voted with Trump most of the time and is in no way seen as a moderate or centrist Republican (as the article says: "no one could ever mistake him for moderate GOP Sen. Susan Collins"), but is also seen as insufficiently MAGA by some of the base. Paxton, on the other hand, might be called "mega-MAGA" for his full-hearted embrace of Donald Trump and his agenda. Paxton, however, comes with some serious baggage.
Paxton was the center of a previous intra-Republican fracas in Texas, and was actually impeached for misconduct by the Republican-held lower legislative chamber, but then wound up being acquitted by the state senate. So it's pretty easy to see him as a Trump-like figure -- and one who is loved by the hardcore base. But it also might be too much baggage to get him elected in a general election.
Paxton, of course, has won statewide elections previously. That's how he got to where he sits today, as the state's attorney general. But so far, the polling doesn't look especially good for him. Paxton is ahead in what early primary polling there is so far (the latest poll showed Paxton up an impressive 16 points over Cornyn), but that's before the campaign has even gotten started. Paxton isn't all that strong in the money-raising department, whereas Cornyn will likely begin the race with a mountain of campaign cash to spend. Texas is a very expensive state to run in, since it has multiple very large media markets to cover. If Cornyn unleashes a witheringly-negative ad campaign blitz against Paxton, the polls could certainly shift back to Cornyn's favor.
But if Paxton won the GOP nomination -- unseating a sitting Republican senator in a primary -- then he would be the worst possible choice to take on the Democrats. Right now Democratic House member Colin Allred is the most prominent name on the Democratic side, but while Cornyn and another Republican both are up by single digits in head-to-head polling with Allred, Paxton is down by a point.
That vulnerability is what is once again giving rise to Democratic hopes of flipping Texas blue. If Paxton wins the nomination -- but is bruised badly by the ad onslaught against him from Cornyn -- then maybe he could be defeated in the general election? Well... maybe. And then again maybe not.
A lot could depend on what Trump does. If there are three Republicans in the race, which one would Trump back? A Trump endorsement would go a long way for any of them, obviously. And if the Trump-endorsed candidate won the nomination, it would make it a lot easier for him to unite the Texas Republican Party afterwards, as the general election campaign got underway. If, however, Trump gives the nod to a candidate that goes on to lose, it might make it harder to pull the base voters back together -- some might be so disappointed in the primary loss that they sit out the general election. And with a very close (single-digit) race, that might be enough for the Democrat to actually win.
Of course, it is still ridiculously early to speculate about the state of a Senate race next year. Anything could happen between now and then, to put it mildly. Cornyn could even conceivably decide not to run and to retire (he is in his 70s).
During the Trump era, Republicans have not had a great record in Senate elections. They have lost numerous races that should have been eminently winnable for them, due to their primary voters' insistence on nominating the most flawed candidates imaginable (see, among others: Hershel Walker, Dr. Oz, , etc.). These candidates then prove to be laughably unqualified during the general election campaign, which has led to multiple Democratic victories (Georgia is currently represented by two Democrats, for instance) where less-laughable Republican candidates probably would have won.
So it is tempting to speculate if the same sort of thing could happen in Texas, although the chances of it happening are not overwhelming. Paxton, after all, is already an accomplished politician who has won statewide races before. Texas, for all the Democratic dreaming that has happened over the past two decades, is still pretty solidly red. If Texas voters can hold their noses and vote for Ted Cruz, then they'll likely do the same for Paxton, no matter what they think of him personally.
It will be a race worth watching, I will give it that. And I certainly would back Allred (or any other viable Democratic candidate) and would be delighted to see him win. But it also still seems like dreaming an impossible dream, to me. So I am sorry to end on a cynical note, but I would caution any Democrat who gets too ensorcelled by this dream to go ask Beto O'Rourke how it all turned out for him.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
it's nice to have a dream.
one of the best animated television episodes ever.
Right. This is a lot of fun, raking the weedpatch of Texas Republican politics to see what roadkill and toxic fungus might found there.
But then comes the fatal and true sentence near the end:
"Texas, for all the Democratic dreaming that has happened over the past two decades, is still pretty solidly red."
Got that? "Solidly red". And so, to retain credibility, you pull back and almost say, that was all just punditry BS, folks. It ain't going to happen, as much as Democrats would like to dream about it.
And the close is perfect, because I was trying to remember his name throughout my entire read of this piece. Who was that guy? He was supposed to be God's Gift to the Democrats Who Want to Flip Texas Blue. Talented, charismatic, able to win his own very liberal district in an insufferably conservative state. And then he just ... disappeared. Who was that guy?
Thanks, Chris, for filling in for my fading memory:
Beto O'Rourke
... I would caution any Democrat who gets too ensorcelled by this dream to go ask Beto O'Rourke how it all turned out for him.
I actually have asked Beto O'Rourke how it all turned out for him... not in those exact words, of course, and he has no regrets. I also asked him if he'd rule out another run for the Senate, and he had no response. So he's saying there's a chance.
I forgot a link to the episode:
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8i9ds2
Ya'all have been talking about Texas turning blue for quite a while now..
Now that PRESIDENT Trump has succeeded where Biden/Harris failed and actually got total control of the border, where are all these new Democrat voters going to come from???
"The sky!!!???"
-Bill Murray
:D
There is as much chance of Texas going blue as there is California going red..
But I understand.. Ya'all need something to hope for...
Far be it from me to dissuade ya'all from your impossible dream..
Have at it.. :D
With the UTMOST respect and sincerity, the idea that Texas could turn Democrat Blue is highly impossible given current political trends and the state’s controlled border.
Texas has remained a Republican stronghold, with Donald Trump winning 52% of the vote in 2024, per the Texas Secretary of State.
The state’s electoral map favors Republicans, as rural and suburban voters consistently back GOP candidates, evidenced by Ted Cruz’s 53% victory in the 2024 Senate race (Texas Politics Project).
Border security, a top issue for 64% of Republican primary voters (UT/Texas Politics Project, 2024), is now robust, with illegal immigrant criminal crossings dropping 95% to 7,180 in March 2025 under Trump’s policies, per CBP data.
NINETY FIVE PERCENT!!!
No more illegal Democrats to turn Texas blue..
This reduces the influx of undocumented immigrants, whom Democrats falsely assume would vote blue and ignores that voting requires citizenship and legal status, as enforced by Texas’ strict voter ID laws (Texas Election Code §63.0101).
The clincher is that Democrats have only 29% favorability in Texas, per a 2025 NBC poll, and their disconnect on issues like immigration (69% view them as out of touch, Washington Post) make a blue shift completely impossible.
Texas’ conservative values and electoral structure virtually guarantees Republican dominance for at least the rest of my life..
There ya go.. A completely factual comment delivered in a completely sincere and respectful manner, complete with cites.. Who could ask for anything more!!! :D
The new Michale has arrived.. Hope ya'all all enjoy him as much as he enjoys being here... :D
And because I am in a good mood I am going to ignore the fact that you quoted (ugh!) Tom Cruise as Reacher.
Fair enough...
The only thing ya hate more than Tom Cruise's JACK REACHER is Sly Stallone's JUDGE DREDD... :D
The TV show's so much better...
Most definitely.. Faithfully follows the novel..
CW comes and cracks down, Mike breaks out his AHD victim card of " oh, it not me, it's everyone else, Mike pouts and goes into lurk mode. Comments section becomes quiet, CW loses interest, time passes, JL and LIZ comment about how they (but, pretty much everyone else does not)"miss" Mike and his oh, so FACT filled wall to wall spleen venting. Mike posts some test comments, JL and LIZ welcome Mike back with open arms. Mike starts his usual slow roll to 50 or 60 copy and pastes from his rage feed between the hours of 2 to 6 am, then declares break time. God forbid anyone who disagrees with him and calls out the fact that OPINION pieces are not fact ( facts are things rooted in truth, FACTS are crap M copies and pastes, silence gives assent, another bullshit mike "rule"), Mike then deems that it is time for a sharp elbow or a just outright punch and when someone punches back, Mike inevitably escalates. Shit escalates, JL and LIZ go tut,tut, much pearl clutching and hand wringing later the comments section is a smoking crater. CW comes back and the "virtuous" cycle starts again. - good trickle 10/23/22
Good trickle forgot and time after time Chris does nothing.
one other thing gt got right was about the need to stop polluting additional columns with conversations from previous days.
goode trickle did an excellent summation, but it wasn't comprehensive. gt had clearly had enough of the smoking crater comment section and was moving on. He left out the part of the cycle we're currently experiencing.
Troll posts cat pics. CW's denial starts to kick in and he is daunted by the sheer volume of troll vomit and watches TV rather than review. Troll pretends to behave while it waits to see if CW ever gets back to reviewing its jerktroll behavior. TDS chatbot troll laughs at and mocks CW.
being as it was three years ago, someone should call gt back to offer an updated opinion.
nypoet22
10
one other thing gt got right was about the need to stop polluting additional columns with conversations from previous days.
There are very few “FPCs” dragging an older conversation into the current one. Mostly I see Weigantia simply adding to the older conversation’s thread. Michale being a troll is way more important.
[9] MtnCaddy,
I recall during the troll's lurk times reading numerous posts from you asking "where is the troll?" and wishing for its return. What took you so long to get to where you are now?
CW is still in one of the middle stages of loss/grief.
i'm at the testing stage.
MtnCaddy
13
There are very few “FPCs” dragging an older conversation into the current one.
Wait, what!? That spamming and double posting is actually part of the troll's modus operandi... the cherry-picking comments "from prior commentary" (f'n petty crap as defined by the commenter who'd had enough of it [and we haven't seen since], goode trickle) and dragging it forward in order to continue hurling insults and the repetitive rote routine.
Mostly I see Weigantia simply adding to the older conversation’s thread. Michale being a troll is way more important.
It has definitely gotten better recently no doubt due to admonishments, but when the needy troll "deems that it is time for a sharp elbow or a just outright punch," it's often (but not exclusively) delivered using posts "FPC" being dragged needlessly into another commentary, all part and parcel of his modus operandi, the neediness to be noticed and making sure his "f'n petty crap" is seen.
In other words, which I believe was the point of the comment, the trolling and the "polluting additional columns with conversations from previous days" are demonstrably part of the issue and definitely not mutually exclusive.
I suspect CW is further along than some of us might think.
The 7 stages of grief
JL
nypoet22
17
What about "withdrawal"? Did somebody remove it? ;)
I referred to goode trickle as "he". Is that correct? Does anyone know?
John From Censornati
19
I referred to goode trickle as "he". Is that correct? Does anyone know?
Yes, sir, definitely correct. We discussed many things over the years like combat boots, routine background checks (PITA), and where he was stationed:
USNS Comfort Arrives in New York City, March 30th, 2020
OK.... Let's do a little analysis... :D
20 comments, not including this one...
Of those comments, SIX are actually ON TOPIC, IE actually addresses the commentary...
TWO of those are mine...
One more comment of mine is a personal note to CW...
That leaves THIRTEEN COMMENTS that are completely off topic (a transgression ya'all CONSTANTLY and HYSTERICALLY whine and cry about) and ALL of them have to do with a SINGLE subject..
Yours truly...
What's amazing about these FACTS is that these comments come even AFTER CW has stated that I am "staying here"...
Well, he first called me a little shithead and THEN he said I was staying here.. :D
So, this proves beyond ANY shadow of a doubt two facts..
1. I was absolutely dead on ballz accurate (Industry Term) when I said that *I* am not the problem here..
2. Ya'all have an INORDINANT amount of empty space in your heads, of which I am living completely rent free...
And, considering that JL is included in that "YA'ALL", it is very surprising..
JFC?? Kick?? Caddy???
We all knew I lived rent free in a LOT of their head space..
But it's surprising that JL has joined that little group..
Anyways, I just thought that was VERY hilarious.. :D
It's my 3-day off weekend, so I am sure we'll (or, to be more accurateYA'ALL..) will talk more (much MUCH MUCH more) about this in the days to come..
:eyeroll:
G'night ya'all.. Gonna finish up Season Six of KOBRA KAI tonight..
The fact that they brought MR MIYAGI back!!!
PHENOMENAL!!!!!
Ni ni, my fellow Weigantians... :D
Michale
21
OK.... Let's do a little analysis... :D
It seems apropos since your standard operational game here contains very "little analysis."
20 comments, not including this one...
Well, why not include this one since it's a totally off-topic unnecessarily lengthy trolling total waste of bandwidth? Rhetorical question.
One more comment of mine is a personal note to CW...
So you're now excluding not one but two?
Well, I've got some really bad news for you and your pathetic trolling disguised as a "little analysis."
Our comments too are basically personal notes to CW, and therefore...
Congratulations, troll; you've been hoisted by your own petard! Your reading comprehension issues and inability to connect simple dots rears its ugly head again and blows your own pathetic argument totally to hell.
So, this proves beyond ANY shadow of a doubt two facts..
Opinions aren't facts. Also, based on the comments that he and we posted, we're obviously taking CW at his word that he hasn't yet read that day... the one wherein a grown-ass man could not stop himself from being a needy toxic troll and pathetic attention-seeking jerk.
But it's surprising that JL has joined that little group..
In case you missed it when CW questioned us, that group is definitely not little, and like CW said, you're the only one playing that game. Time to get a clue.
Kick,
, you're the only one playing that game.
Considering how many comments you made about me, am I REALLY the "only one" playing the game???
The FACTS say, frak no... :D
You've been PWNed... :D
Michale
23
Considering how many comments you made about me, am I REALLY the "only one" playing the game???
Yes, definitely. Identifying your game (as CW and many others have done so perfectly) and "playing" it are two entirely separate and wholly different things. Anyone pointing out your game makes them no more a "player" than a judge identifying an unconstitutional Executive Order means they're the POTUS. Try to keep up.
The FACTS say, frak no... :D
The facts would like to thank you for continuing to provide the proof of your intent.
You've been PWNed... :D
You've been yellow carded. Thank you for proving the reason CW was justified to call it.
And KICK continues to play the game... :D
Even JL has had the sense to back out and quit playing.. :D