The Pollsters Can't Tell Who Will Vote
We seem to be entering the homestretch of the midterm election cycle, and I should begin by pointing out that this term is loaded with meaning. A "homestretch," of course, is the last part of a race, generally a horse race. So that's what the political media reports on -- the "horserace" aspect of the contest. Or, put more simply: the polls. But the reputation of professional pollsters has taken quite a beating over the past six years, as they have been proven surprisingly wrong time and time again. So everyone should cast a very skeptical eye over all the polls we'll all be hearing about over the next month. Because the recent polling miscalls (most notably in 2016 and 2020) can all be boiled down to one key cause: pollsters cannot accurately predict who is going to turn out to vote.
They do try, to give them some credit. They ask things like: "Did you vote in the past two elections?" or: "How sure are you that you will vote this year?" or even: "How enthusiastic are you about voting?" All are designed to try to gauge the relative motivation across the wide public, with breakdowns for individual groups. But it doesn't always work. Take that first question. Historically, it's been used to attempt to measure "likely voters," as opposed to "someone who just answered the phone and likes to talk, but has no intention of actually voting." Past voting performance was seen as a very strong indicator for actually showing up for any upcoming election.
This works, except when it doesn't. When a large number of people who haven't usually voted decide to participate in an election, it can skew the numbers in a large enough way to shock all the pollsters. This has happened to one degree or another in the past three election cycles. In 2016, a whole bunch of people voted for Donald Trump that the pollsters did not expect to actually vote. This included a whole lot of "first-time" voters as well as people who perhaps voted occasionally but not religiously. In 2018, there was a big backlash to Trump, most notably among women voters, which gave the Democrats a big edge. This was somewhat predicted by the pollsters, but not to the level it actually manifested itself. In 2020, there was a surge in turnout from both sides, and Joe Biden's surge beat Trump's surge -- but neither was fully expected or predicted by the polls (which led to a lot of disappointment among Democrats further down the ballot, as Republicans did much better than expected in the Senate and House races).
Looking at the 2022 midterms, the real question is: "Who is going to turn out to vote?" And the only correct answer is: "Nobody really knows." Will there be a big wave of new women voters, enraged about the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade? It is possible, but not guaranteed. Will young voters be enthused enough to turn out for a midterm race? Perhaps. Will the economy be the biggest motivator, and an anti-Biden wave will carry the day? This is also a possibility. But nobody really knows.
The only prediction I would venture to make, a month out, is that turnout will likely be high -- a lot higher than most modern midterm elections. Donald Trump has done many things to the American political system, but one seldom mentioned is that him being a candidate or being president motivated the public more than anyone else has managed to do for the past 60 years (or perhaps even "the past century"). Voter participation is up, and in the last midterm it was way up -- participation reached levels not seen in 100 years, in fact. People either love Trump or hate Trump, but either way it is a strong motivation to get more of them to the voting booth in November.
Quoting solid numbers to show this is problematic, because there are so many data sets out there. You can go with Wikipedia's numbers, or Ballotpedia's stats, or the ones collected by a group called Election Project. They all show slightly different percentages for how many of what they call the "Voting-Eligible Population" (V.E.P.) actually voted. But no matter what the hard percentages actually are, the trendlines are pretty much the same no matter which numbers you use.
Voter participation was a lot higher in the 19th century, but for some reason it dropped off in a big way right around the time of the turn of the century (through roughly World War I), and the numbers never really recovered. Take a look at the Election Project's graph (which tracks the data back much further than the other sites). To avoid the line whipsawing back and forth, they draw two lines, one for presidential elections and one for midterms. As you can see, up until the year 1900, people in the 1800s voted more in midterm elections than modern Americans vote in presidential years. That's pretty astonishing, when you think about it. In presidential years in the 1800s, the numbers were unbelievably high -- ranging from 70 to 80 percent turnout (of the V.E.P.). No presidential election since World War I has ever cracked even 70 percent, and most of them didn't even top 60 percent. Midterms were even worse, fluctuating in the range between 30 and 50 percent.
But look at the tail end of that graph. Trump's first election, in 2016, saw (for modern times) an impressive turnout, but not a record-setting one. A higher turnout happened for Barack Obama's first election, to put it in perspective. But this spiked upwards in a big way in 2020, where the turnout percentage was higher than in any race since at least John F. Kennedy won (some data sets put 2020 above 1960, some put it slightly below 1960). If Trump is on the 2024 ballot, this trend will likely continue.
This year, of course, there is no presidential contest. But that's where the "Trump effect" is even more pronounced. Look at the midterm line on that chart. Not only did midterm election participation jump by more than 13 percent (which is absolutely unprecedented -- there is no similar huge leap upward in the midterm numbers anywhere else on that chart, in all of American history), it hit a high not seen in 100 years.
This is but one data point, it bears mentioning. This trend could continue this year, but there is no guarantee it will. Fewer voters might turn out simply because Trump himself is not on the ballot or in office, for instance.
Which all makes the pollsters' jobs harder, since nobody knows how many first-time voters will show up -- or even second-time voters (voters who were first-time midterm voters in 2018, in other words). And even if the raw number were somehow magically known in advance, it would still leave the question of which new voters will turn out -- the ones Trump motivated, or the ones who were motivated to vote against Trump?
Shifts have taken place over the last few election cycles, but nobody is really sure if they are permanent or some aberration due to Trump. More Latinos started voting for Republicans, for instance. More women in the suburbs started voting Democratic. Young people turned out in higher numbers than expected. Will any of these repeat in 2022? Your guess is as good as mine.
President Joe Biden is certainly doing what he can to motivate young voters. He finally convinced Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to pass a bill which contained the largest effort ever by the United States to tackle climate change -- a big issue for younger voters, who are going to be around for a lot more of the effects of climate change than older voters. Biden singlehandedly forgave up to $20,000 of student loan debt per student, which should be a strong motivator for college students to vote Democratic so such policies will continue. And Biden also began moving the federal government away from its pointless and destructive War On Weed, with a blanket pardon for those convicted in federal court for simple possession of marijuana. He is the first president to do so, and (again) young people took note. But how many of them will bother to actually go vote?
The issue of abortion was thrust into the race by the Supreme Court, in their Dobbs decision, which has (to date) shut down 66 abortion providers across the country, and stripped a basic constitutional right from tens of millions of American women. This has absolutely outraged a whole lot of people, which may lead to a big wave of women voting Democratic just to send a message that they do not approve of the direction of the Republican Party. Or it could lead to a backlash of anti-abortion voters turning out instead. Nobody really knows, although so far the signs look a lot better for the pro-choice side of things.
I wanted to end on a positive note, by acknowledging that there is one person out there who sees things with an astonishing amount of optimism. Michael Moore is predicting a giant wave of "Roevember" voters will sweep Republicans from office. His claim to fame in the political prediction business is that he alone foresaw Trump's victory, very early on in 2016. He published an opinion piece titled "Five Reasons Trump Will Be President" in July of 2016 -- long before the election. And he was right. He was, of course, ignored at the time (or laughed at).
This time around, he's bucking the mainstream media's conventional wisdom again. Moore predicts that voters "are going to descend upon the polls en masse -- a literal overwhelming, unprecedented tsunami of voters -- and nonviolently, legally, and without mercy remove every last stinking traitor to our Democracy." He's issuing what he calls a "tsunami of truth" on his site on a daily basis, which all provide some evidence for Democratic optimism.
Maybe Moore just got lucky in 2016. Maybe this time around he's overreading the tea leaves through some awfully rosy-tinted glasses (if that isn't mixing metaphors too much). But then again maybe he's on to something.
What has carried the last few American elections might be called "the surprise factor" -- the voters who show up to vote that just weren't foreseen by the pollsters. Trump voters surprised everyone in 2016. Anti-Trump voters caused a big wave in 2018. The Trump voters showed up again in 2020 (more people voted for Trump in 2020 than did in 2016), but there were actually more anti-Trump voters, and it more than cancelled out the new Trump voters.
The real question for 2022 is who is going to turn out? Which groups will surprise the pollsters? Which races were predicted to be close but turned into easy victories for one side or the other? What issues did the pollsters miss that they should have asked about?
Polling is both a science and an artform. It always seeks to improve, which is a good thing. But in the past few elections there has been so much uncertainty and unpredictability, because all of a sudden the tried-and-true methods for predicting who would actually vote didn't work. Participation went up, and then went way up.
This is all healthy for democracy. It is a silver lining to the dark cloud of threats to American democracy which (sadly) now exist. More people are voting. More voices are being heard. Perhaps more of these people will develop such regular voting patterns that the pollsters' formulas and algorithms will start working properly again (even for midterms). Or perhaps pollsters will get better at identifying "surprise voters" before they surprise everyone. Maybe the entire phenomenon will disappear whenever Trump finally leaves the political stage. But for now, more people voting (no matter what the outcome turns out to be) is a good thing indeed for the health of American democracy. At this rate, who knows, maybe we'll even eventually get back to the voter-participation levels last seen in the 1890s.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
So get out the vote!
Remind people of the issues like the overturning of Roe and its consequences, like this one, with a 14-year old girl being refused her prescribed arthritis medication: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/10/05/abortion-arizona-arthritis-prescription-refill/
Remind people of the personal income of legislators who want to sunset social security and other tax-funded programs.
Remind people of the moral and ethical failings of people who want to legislate morality for others.
Remind them that these same people will try to prevent them from voting or prevent their votes being counted if elected this time.
Re [1]: The girl eventually got her meds, but only after her mother made a scene and got a technician to explain to the dispenser that something prescribed for years is unlikely to be used for the purpose of an abortion. The girl is 14, remember, and has juvenile arthritis.
Russ,
Your never ending wailing about preventing teachers from "grooming" your children deserves complete honesty in my response... your kids aren't being groomed by anyone. So tell your kid to stop calling. No means NO!
Of course my kids are not being groomed..
They are not in the clutches of Democrat groomer teachers..
DUH... Did your parents drop you on your head as a child alot?? It would sure explain a lot..
It's like finding out the Scout Leader buggered every kid in the troupe but yours... and you are left wondering, "Well what's wrong with my kid?!?"
I assume that's your attempt to be funny.. :^/
Only a mind as frak'ed up as yours would come up with something like that and think it's funny. :eyeroll:
You are given every opportunity to correct what you said if you were mistaken.
And, as I have proven beyond ANY doubt with the facts, I was not mistaken..
Yet, YOU continue to lie about it..
Per your norm..
Then you go on to call me a liar multiple times in the post and after you finish that post, you post about how unfair it is to always be called out for lying.
Ironic hyperbole is lost on you, eh?? :eyeroll:
My initial assessment is obviously correct.. You were dropped on your head a lot as a child..
By the by, I accept your concession...
Dementia Biden WAS lying when he said that firearm manufacturers is the ONLY industry that has immunity from liability lawsuits.
EVERY industry enjoys that same type of liability lawsuit that the PLCAA gives the firearm manufacturers..
SMACKDOWN!! :D
Mezzo,
Remind people of the issues like the overturning of Roe and its consequences, like this one, with a 14-year old girl being refused her prescribed arthritis medication:
One can ALWAYS find an outlier exception with a minimum of search..
But obviously you don't understand how laws work. I understand.. Yer a Democrat after all..
Allow me to explain it to you..
When creating a law, lawmakers must base the law on what is the norms. You don't create a law that covers crazy outliers.. You create a law that covers what occurs within the boundaries of the norm and then carve out the exceptions as they occur..
I hope this explains things to you so you can understand..
Remind people of the personal income of legislators who want to sunset social security and other tax-funded programs.
And also remind people how Democrats refuse to pass laws that allow Congress Critters to get rich off of their insider knowledge..
Remind people of the moral and ethical failings of people who want to legislate morality for others.
Yep.. Agreed... So get your Democrats to quit legislating their own perverse "morality"... such as it is.. :^/
Remind them that these same people will try to prevent them from voting or prevent their votes being counted if elected this time.
And yet, the Voter Integrity Laws that have come about have actually INCREASED the voter turnout..
Funny how that fact totally decimates your claim, eh? :D
Thank you for your contribution to Weigantia® discourse and discussion..
It is to your credit that yer not afraid to comment here as most everyone else appears to be.. :D
Mezzo,
Yer a Democrat after all..
Apologies.. Such a gross underhanded personal attack was uncalled for...
What Will Happen to America if Trump Wins Again? Experts Helped Us Game It Out.
Imagine it’s Jan. 20, 2025. Inauguration Day. The president-elect raises his right hand and begins to recite the oath: I, Donald John Trump, do solemnly swear …
It’s an anti-Trumper’s nightmare, but it could happen: 47 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents want Trump to be the nominee in 2024, according to a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll. And if Trump and Joe Biden are the contenders, Trump narrowly edges Biden, 48 to 46 percent, among registered voters (albeit within the poll’s margin of error).
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/what-will-happen-to-america-if-trump-wins-again-experts-helped-us-game-it-out/ar-AA12Npwp
BBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
This article is hilarious..
All the BAD things they claim will happen when President Trump is re-elected???
***IS ALREADY HAPPENING UNDER THE DEMENTIA BIDEN BANANA-REPUBLIC REGIME!!!***
How hilarious is that!!!! :D
And also remind people how Democrats refuse to pass laws that allow Congress Critters to get rich off of their insider knowledge..
Of course, that should read:
And also remind people how Democrats refuse to pass laws that PREVENT Congress Critters to get rich off of their insider knowledge..
's what I get when I comment before finishing my diet cokes.. :D
Looks like Fauxchohantas is still in the news.. :D
Elizabeth Warren mocked for 'Indigenous People's Day' tweet: ‘You just might want to sit this one out’
Twitter users were quick to point out the irony in Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., promoting Indigenous Peoples’ Day on Monday.
Warren celebrated the holiday, which replaces Columbus Day in various cities across the country, on her account that morning.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/elizabeth-warren-mocked-indigenous-peoples-day-tweet-want-sit-one
Warren is still trying to virtue-signal off of her bullshit claim that she is Native American.. :eyeroll:
Warren previously claimed to be Native American while teaching at Harvard Law School
Imagine being Elizabeth Warren and thinking you can still virtue signal on this...
-Spencer Brown
hehehehehe THAT is funny...
Speaking of Columbus Day..
How utterly MORONIC is it that Democrats want to change the holiday to "Indigenous People Day"???
:eyeroll:
Well, Dumbocrats aren't known for the brain power, that much is certain..
Dinner therapy: Key to a stress-free home may be regular family meals
DALLAS — Could the secret to easing stress be as simple as having dinner as a family? Researchers with the American Heart Association have found that 91 percent of parents notice their families are less stressed when they share meals together.
https://studyfinds.org/family-meals-helps-de-stress/
Too bad the Democrats are hell-bent on destroying the nuclear family unit.. :^/
It figgers.. Democrats hate so much and are intolerant of so much, OF COURSE they would be at the fore-front of destroying the GOOD in America... :^/
J.D. Vance DOMINATES in Ohio Senate Debate Against Radical Left-Wing Congressman Tim Ryan
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/paula-bolyard/2022/10/10/j-d-vance-dominates-in-ohio-senate-debate-against-radical-left-wing-congressman-tim-ryan-n1636016
Welp, Democrats can kiss Ohio and the Senate goodbye.. :D
Paula must be fit to be tied, eh?? :D
Dems under water on top two voter issues heading into midterms
With inflation and violent crime worrying Americans, polling indicates Americans trust Republicans on crime and the economy — and the GOP is taking advantage.
One month out from the midterm elections, voters have made clear that crime and the economy are the two most important issues to them, according to recent polling — and they trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle both top issues.
The economy, particularly inflation, has consistently ranked as the number one priority for voters. A new Monmouth University poll, for example, found that 82% of Americans ranked inflation as an extremely or very important issue.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/dems-under-water-top-two-voter-issues-heading-midterms
Leave it to Democrats to play to their own weaknesses and play to the GOP's strengths... :D
It's almost like Dims are TRYING to give the House & Senate to the GOP... :D
Trump Hits Biden for 'Armageddon' Remark, Warns It's 'Exactly the Wrong' Message
President Joe Biden's speculation about a possible "Armageddon" amid Russian President Vladimir Putin's threats of nuclear war is "exactly the wrong thing" to say, former President Donald Trump is warning.
Instead, the United States should be urging Russia and Ukraine to negotiate for peace to avoid an even more dire outcome for the more than 7-month-old war, Trump said at a Sunday rally in Arizona, the Washington Examiner reported.
"We have to be very smart and very nimble. We have to know what to say, what to do," Trump cautioned, the news outlet reported. "And we are saying exactly the wrong thing. We'll end up in a World War III."
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/donald-trump-joe-biden-ukraine/2022/10/10/id/1091163/
If there is going to be a third World War and/or nukes start flying...
Leave it to the banana-republic Dementia Biden's regime and the Democrats to stumble the US into it..
:eyeroll:
"We must demand immediate negotiation of a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine, or we will end up in World War III and there will never be a war like this," Trump said at the Mesa, Arizona, rally. "We will never have had a war like this, and that's all because of stupid people that don't have a clue. And it's also because of the kind of weaponry that's available today.
We have a president who is cognitively impaired and in no condition to lead our country," Trump said. "And is now casually talking about nuclear war with Russia, which would be World War III and far more devastating than any of the previous wars, because of the weaponry that no one even wants to think about or discuss."
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/donald-trump-joe-biden-ukraine/2022/10/10/id/1091163/
President Donald Trump..
The *ONLY* President worth having.. The *ONLY* President that does good by America....
Democrat Candidate in Ohio Senate Race Has Debate Meltdown
Just over four weeks before the November midterm elections, JD Vance and Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) met to debate on Monday night as they vie to replace retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH). While Ryan was once considered something of a moderate, and likes to think of himself as one still, his debate performance was very much one full of fear-mongering and hypocrisy.
Early on in the debate, moderators asked about China as the enemy, during which Ryan claimed that Vance has been invested in China. Although he kept bringing it up, he was unable to provide evidence.
The moderators also early on asked about abortion, including which limits Ryan would support on abortion, a question he has tried to dance around in the past. While Ryan signaled support for what he said would "codify Roe v. Wade, the legislation in question, the Women's Health Protection Act (WHPA), would actually expand Roe. It will also invalidate pro-life laws passed at the state level.
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/rebeccadowns/2022/10/11/jd-vancetim-ryan-debate-n2614290
Looks like Vance is beating the crap outta his Dim opponent... :D
Yep.. Ohio's Senate seat is safely in GOP hands.. :D
Ryan is one of those Dims who support up-to-kindergarten Baby Killing... :^/
Thank gods everyone here in Weigantia® support restrictions on Baby Killing... Well, except for MC, but his opinion changes depending on how drugged up he is.. :^/
Speaking of MC.. Where has he been lately??
He must be hiding because the Dems are getting pounded by the GOP left and more left. :D
What I say before about Americans leaving the Democrat Party in droves!!?? :D
'ELITIST CABAL'
Tulsi Gabbard announces she's leaving the 'cowardly' Democratic Party in fiery takedown
Tulsi Gabbard leaves Democratic Party, denounces it as 'elitist cabal'
Tulsi Gabbard argues the Democrats have given into 'cowardly wokeness' and 'anti-white racism'
Former Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard announced she left the Democratic Party on Tuesday, denouncing the organization as an "elitist cabal."
Gabbard attacked the institution in a minute-long video posted to her Twitter account. Gabbard did not announce plans to join the Republican Party or adopt any other political affiliation.
"I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism," Gabbard wrote.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tulsi-gabbard-leaves-democratic-party-denounces-elitist-cabal
The Democrat Party is shrinking!! :D
And, just when you thought the hysterical Global Warming fanatics could NOT get ANY more stoopid or more moronic...
They prove you wrong..
New Zealand government proposes taxing cow burps, pee to tackle climate change
New Zealand has approximately 10 million beef and dairy cattle and 26 million sheep
New Zealand announced Tuesday a proposal to tax greenhouse gases farm animals produce, including burping and peeing, as part of its efforts to address climate change.
According to the country's government, the proposed tax on farms would be the first in the world. It also said farmers should be able to regain the cost by upping the prices of climate-friendly products.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-zealand-government-proposes-taxing-cow-burps-pee-tackle-climate-change
Once again, it's PROVEN beyond ANY doubt..
The Global Warming BS is simply a con to make money..
The facts are clear..
When Left Wingers start giving up their cars and their use of electricity... THEN they might have a moral or ethical foundation to stand on..
Limitations on polling in today's tech climate are many and myriad. Because so few and so nonrandom people respond to pollsters it's nearly impossible to obtain anything like a representative sample.
SEAN HANNITY: It seems the momentum has clearly shifted towards Republicans
Hannity highlights how Republicans are growing in favor for midterms
But first, we are 29 days away from this inflection point in our country, a tipping point election, if there ever was one, our midterms. Republicans now are surging all across the country. It seems the momentum has clearly shifted towards Republicans.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/sean-hannity-momentum-shifted-towards-republicans
Well, that certain explains why everything is so quiet here in Weigantia®... :D
Limitations on polling in today's tech climate are many and myriad.
For example....????
Because so few and so nonrandom people respond to pollsters it's nearly impossible to obtain anything like a representative sample.
I have been saying that here for over 16 years... :D
The ONLY thing polls show is the bias and inclination of the poll takers...
Common Ground.. :D
Limitations on polling in today's tech climate are many and myriad.
For example....????
Disregard.. I misread your statement..
‘Thought Process’ ‘Is Wolflike’: Biological Man Transitioned To Female, Now Identifies As Wolf; Howls At Morning Show Hosts
Naia Okami, a biological male who identifies as a woman, also claims to be a wolf.
Joining “This Morning” on Monday, Okami identified as “otherkin therian.”
“A therian is somebody who believes that they are a non-human animal on a personal, integral level,” Okami told the hosts. “Now this isn’t to say that we’re delusional. I don’t physically believe that I’m a wolf. It’s more of a spiritual and psychological identification as a wolf.”
https://www.dailywire.com/news/thought-process-is-wolflike-biological-man-transitioned-to-female-now-identifies-as-wolf-howls-at-morning-show-hosts
This OBVIOUSLY mentally ill Democrat identifies as a wolf...
This is exactly why sane patriotic Americans roll their eyes at the Democrat Party... :^/ <---like that..
I only have one question.. Is she house-broken yet?? :D
I only have one question.. Is she house-broken yet?? :D
My bust.. Is *HE* house-broken yet..
“I think a lot of people have a misconception that I think I am literally a wolf and obviously I don’t.”
-Wolf Guy
“So, physically, I am a British Columbia wolf; black fur, amber eyes,” Okami said. “The reason I know this is when I dream, a lot of times I am in my wolf form, and I have also had third party dreams where I’ve seen myself.”
-ALSO Wolf Guy
Ta think that Democrats and Weigantians® accept this as perfectly normal behavior...
BBBWWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
And ya'all wonder why Democrats lose elections..
https://www.drudgereport.com/
Looks like Drudge has finally conceded that his news aggregation site is nothing but a Democrat Propaganda Outlet...
Truth in Advertising.. You don't see that much these days..
How bad is red meat for you? Health risks get star ratings
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221010-how-bad-is-red-meat-for-you-health-risks-get-star-ratings
I don't get it.. I LIKE my steaks rare..
But if ya'all don't like red meat...
Just cook it longer!! DUH...
:D
Battle for Senate majority remains a nail-biter
The 50-50 Senate is still finely balanced a month out from Election Day, the latest surveys show.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/09/senate-swing-state-polls-2022-00060983
Not really.. The facts clearly show that the GOP will take Senate... :D
Is that why the polls are usually so inaccurate? Asking for a friend.
Michale,
I like my filet mignon thick and juicy with a nice mushroom sauce, heavy on the mushrooms. Don't mind a little pink. :)
Is that why the polls are usually so inaccurate? Asking for a friend.
YES.. :D
And it's also why you can find a poll that supports ANY position you might want to take.. :D
I'm, well, so happy it hurts! Going to see Bryan Adams' Kick Ass rockin' band this evening. Started getting ready early this morning - the way I do it, it takes all day long. Heh.
Kick Ass - Bryan Adams
Jon Stewart interviewing the Arkansas AG on gender affirming care.
Really shows how the right is just flat out ignoring experts to push ideological BS. Republicans have become the party of oppressive government...
I once answered a call from political pollster. Thought sure do my civic duty and answer a few questions. Never again. That dam call went on for like twenty minutes. Five questions, sure happy too, fifty questions, you can piss right off with that. The last half was just stream of consciousness answers trying to guess which one would shorten the call. That mixed with so many robocalls that most people assume foe if they don't recognize the number, I'm not surprised that polls have gone down in quality.
WORLD Published October 11, 2022 10:49am EDT
Neonatal nurse accused of killing 7 babies, attempting to kill 10 more: 'Malevolent presence'
Nurse Lucy Letby allegedly poisoned babies with insulin or injected air into the bloodstream
https://www.foxnews.com/world/neonatal-accused-killing-7-babies-attempting-kill-10-more-malevolent-presence
Honorary Democrat... :^/
Michale, you have become a parody of yourself. Are you truly down to just blaming everything on the democrats? Even people from other countries? A war in some country no one has heard of: democrats fault. Jaywalking: democrats fault. A branch falls off a tree during a storm and falls on your house: democrats fault. Constipation: you got it, democrats. That pink soap scum that forms when you don't clean a sink often enough: definitely democrats...
Do you check for democrats under your bed before going to sleep?
Heh.
Bashi,
Oh, and that war in a country Americans haven't heard of? Probably America's fault. I'm just sayin' ...
Bash,
Michale, you have become a parody of yourself. Are you truly down to just blaming everything on the democrats?
You mean, like ya'all blame everything on President Trump & Republicans?? You mean like..
I am parodying ya'all.. DUH...
Even people from other countries?
I simply point out the similarities between this scumbag's Baby Killing agenda and Democrats' Baby Killing agenda..
Don't blame me because yer Democrats are into baby Killing..
You mean, like ya'all blame everything on President Trump & Republicans?? You mean like..
Really shows how the right is just flat out ignoring experts to push ideological BS. Republicans have become the party of oppressive government...
-Bashi
A perfect example.. :D
3 ways Joe Biden lost credibility with voters and what it means for the midterms
President Biden has forfeited a lot of good will by denying reality, making ridiculous excuses and blaming others for his administration's mistakes
Credibility isn’t black and white. It isn’t an either/or. It exists in the margins. But once you’ve been caught in a lie, it’s a lot easier to keep losing it than to rebuild it.
President Joe Biden is about to learn this firsthand.
In a few weeks, Democrats will likely wake up to a Republican majority in both the House and Senate and naively wonder how it all went wrong.
While the economy is the number one issue for voters, there is a slightly more intangible reason that looms large as well.
The Biden administration has lost its credibility.
It’s the reason they, despite some good news every now and then, can’t raise their poll numbers.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/3-ways-joe-biden-lost-credibility-voters-what-means-midterms
We're gonna have SOOOOO much fun here in Weigantia® on 9 Nov 2022, eh?? :D
A perfect example.. :D
Actually it is. Jon Stewart came in prepared and the AG was phoning it in. She could not back up her side at all. Much like you when pushed...
Actually it is.
Thank you.. I accept your concession.. :D
Especially since it's been the Democrats who have been so repressive.. Acting like Nazis
Right down the the red hue'ed Nazi speech that was right out of Hitler's playbook..
Apartments owned by Warnock's church evict 'homeless' tenants while senator receives hefty housing stipend
'It’s disheartening. It’s horrible. It’s actually horrifying,' one Columbia Tower resident said of the apparent hypocrisy
A downtown Atlanta apartment building mostly owned by the church of Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., has reportedly been evicting disadvantaged tenants while the church pays the senator a hefty monthly housing stipend.
Ebenezer Baptist Church, which pays Warnock a sizable $7,417 monthly housing allowance as its senior pastor, is 99% owner of the Columbia Tower at MLK Village, where residents have received eviction notices for owing as little as $25.88 in past-due rent, according to documents obtained by The Washington Free Beacon.
Eight tenants at Columbia Tower, which is also run by Columbia Residential and described as a haven for the "chronically homeless" and those afflicted with "mental disabilities," have been issued eviction notices since early 2020 for owing an average of $125 in rent.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/apartments-owned-warnocks-church-evict-homeless-tenants-senator-receives-hefty-housing-stipend
Slumlord Rapheal Warlock collects money from charities and such and then evicts the tenants anyways...
And the condemnation from Democrats and Weigantians®...???
{{ccchhiiiirrrrrppppp}}{{ccchhhiiiiirrrrrpppppp}}
:eyeroll:
Democrats are praying to the Baby Killing gods to save them in the mid-terms..
Stoopid move.. :D
Bernie Sanders, James Carville warn Democrats against going all-in on abortion: 'Political malpractice'
Sanders said it would be 'political malpractice' to ignore the economy as a campaign issue
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-VT., and Democratic strategist James Carville both warned against Democrats going all-in on abortion and ignoring economic issues ahead of the midterms.
"But, as we enter the final weeks of the 2022 midterm elections, I am alarmed to hear the advice that many Democratic candidates are getting from establishment consultants and directors of well-funded Super Pacs that the closing argument of Democrats should focus only on abortion," Sanders wrote in an op-ed on Monday for The Guardian.
Sanders said it was "political malpractice" to ignore the economy but emphasized abortion should remain a top issue.
"I believe that if Democrats do not fight back on economic issues and present a strong pro-worker agenda, they could well be in the minority in both the House and the Senate next year," he wrote.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/bernie-sanders-james-carville-warn-democrats-against-going-all-in-abortion-political-malpractice
Democrats CAN'T fight back on the economy...
Democrats CAUSED the crappy economy..
CAUSED the inflation...
CAUSED the high gas prices..
Baby Killing is all Democrats have in the cupboard...
"I believe that if Democrats do not fight back on economic issues and present a strong pro-worker agenda, they could well be in the minority in both the House and the Senate next year."
-Bernie Sanders
Yup... Yup... Yup...
Democrats' ENTIRE campaign is a noun, a verb and Baby Killing..
THAT is the entirety of the Democrats' campaign strategy..
They DESERVE to lose...
And you've gone completely off the deep end...
And you've gone completely off the deep end...
You've been saying that for years..
And it's as factually inaccurate and meaningless now as it was back then..
Get some new material.. Yer boring... :^/
Nevada shows signs of growing red wave
Signs are emerging that Nevada could see a red wave in November, putting Democratic control of a critical state at risk and potentially costing the party its Senate majority.
Recent polling has shown Republican Senate hopeful Adam Laxalt leading Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), albeit within the margin of error, and demonstrated that Republicans’ preferred midterm issue — the economy and inflation — is dominating the minds of residents from the tourism-focused state.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3681907-nevada-shows-signs-of-growing-red-wave/
"Winter's coming"
:D
Hey, Michale, did you get yourself on William Bradley's email list?
Winter is coming.
Hey, Michale, did you get yourself on William Bradley's email list?
I begged.. :D
No, seriously, who is William Bradley? :D
Winter is coming.
It is indeed.. And, thanx to the Democrats' Cult of Economic Failure, there's a shellackin' a'comin'! :D
He's the non-partisan political analyst who calls it as he sees it, coloured only by his great experience and expertise in geopolitics.
I will look him up in the AM.. :D
It's dinner with the wife and QUANTUM LEAP time..
See ya'all in the mornin'... :D
Good luck with that - please let me know how you do!