Electoral Math -- A Pre-Debate Snapshot

[ Posted Monday, September 28th, 2020 – 18:02 UTC ]

As we get closer to the election, these columns will increase in frequency as well. We haven't decided when to move to a weekly format (every Monday), but it's coming soon, just to let everyone know.

It has been two weeks since the last time we looked at the polls, and not a whole lot has changed. The race tightened a bit in a few states, but overall Biden still has the clear advantage.

Let's begin (as always) by taking a look a the chart of Electoral Votes (EV). Also as always, our polling data comes from the superb site, which we strongly recommend to people who love numbers and charts. Our first chart shows what percentage each candidate would get if the election were held today and all the polling was perfectly accurate. Joe Biden starts at the bottom in blue, Donald Trump starts at the top in red, and whichever color crosses the 50 percent line will be the winner.

Electoral Math By Percent

[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]

The last time we checked in was 9/14, halfway between the 9/8 and 9/22 markers on the chart. Since then, Biden has dropped in percentage -- but so has Trump (to a smaller degree). This is possible because two states -- Iowa and Florida -- are now perfectly tied. Iowa has only 6 EV, but Florida has a whopping 29. That's why the white space between Biden and Trump is so large this time around.

Joe Biden entered the period with a total of 353 EV. Eleven states showed movement between the categories this time around, with five of them affecting this chart. Iowa went from Trump's column to tied, while Florida went from Biden to tied. Ohio flipped briefly from Biden to Trump, but then flipped back a week later with a new poll. Only two states shifted from one candidate to the other, as Georgia moved from Biden to Trump while North Carolina moved back to Biden's column after briefly being in Trump's. The other six states which moved around (either strengthening or weakening for one of the candidates) without affecting this chart were: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, South Carolina, and Virginia. More on them in a moment.

Biden began the period by adding 15 EV, as North Carolina moved back to him. This gave him 368 EV, which would prove to be the high point for him. Biden briefly lost Ohio before gaining it back, and then also lost Georgia to Trump. The biggest hit Biden took, however, was when Florida moved to the tied category. This reflected on Biden's final tally, which wound up at 323 EV.

Trump began the period with 185 EV, but then took a hit as he lost North Carolina to Biden once again. Trump then picked up Ohio for one week, and flipped Georgia. For two days, this gave him his highest EV total of the entire race, at 204 EV. But the loss of Iowa and Ohio pulled him back down again, and he finished the period slightly down from his start, at only 180 EV.

Percentage-wise, Joe Biden is obviously losing ground (with the loss of Florida), and he's now only at an overall total of 60 percent of the Electoral College. Trump fell slightly as well (since there are so many EV in the tied category) to finish up at 33 percent. Even though this is a low point for Biden (as the chart plainly shows), he's still almost at a 2-to-1 advantage over Trump.

The other thing the chart plainly shows is the importance of Florida. If Biden manages to win the Sunshine State, Trump's chances of winning may disappear entirely.

But let's take a closer look at the respective candidates' strengths. As always, "Strong" means a polling lead of 10 points or better, "Weak" covers between 5 and 10 points up, and "Barely" is any polling lead of less than 5 percent.

Biden Electoral Math

Biden's graph showed a lot of movement between Strong and Weak, but overall his "Strong Plus Weak" line stayed fairly constant. Biden did lose significant ground in the Barely category, though, which brought his overall numbers down to their lowest point in the race so far. Biden did then improve a bit at the end, though.

Three states wobbled for Biden, all in the right direction, but then they all wobbled back again by the end. This created the hump in the dark blue Strong line, as both Minnesota and Michigan moved into Strong Biden for a time, but then moved back to Weak Biden in the end. Arizona moved from Barely Biden to Weak as well, but also wobbled back to Barely later on. Ohio wobbled between Biden and Trump, moving from Barely Biden to Barely Trump but then right back to Barely Biden. This allowed Biden to recover from his lowest point, a total of only 305 EV, which he hit four days ago. With Ohio's total added in, overall Biden now stands at 323 EV.

Other states moved around as well. Nevada went all the way from Barely Biden to Strong Biden, while one poll out of Virginia moved it from Strong to Weak Biden. Biden lost Georgia to Trump while gaining North Carolina from him. But the biggest hit was Florida moving from Barely Biden to a perfect tie. Taken together with the loss of Texas to Trump last time around, this has had a significant impact on Biden's overall total, as the two states add up to 67 EV between them.

For the period, Biden increased his Strong number from 213 up to 239, but then it fell back again to finish at only 206. This is a little concerning, since it is the lowest point he's charted so far. But his Weak numbers improved over the same period, from 56 EV up to 69 EV. Biden's Barely total saw a falloff, from 84 EV at the start down to only 48 EV at the end. Overall, Biden moved from 353 EV total up to 368 EV, then briefly down to his lowest point ever at 305 EV, before recovering back up to 323 EV at the end.

But as always, the line I pay the most attention to is "Strong Plus Weak." Let's take a look at how Biden is doing historically, in this important category.

Democrats Strong/Weak

Ever since the start of the month, Joe Biden has been flirting with that 270 line. He stayed exactly at 270 for a period, rose a bit only to fall to 269 EV, which he hit on two separate occasions. He now stands just above the threshold, at 275 EV with the addition of Nevada's 6 EV. Obviously, things could be better for Biden, although there's one interesting footnote for those worried about an Electoral College tie (where both candidates get 269). The two districts in states that do not award all their EV to the statewide winner, in Maine and Nebraska, both are polling strongly for Biden right now. What this could mean is an extra EV added to Biden's column in the end. We've been ignoring this subtlety in these charts, since usually these districts wind up following the rest of their state -- so we've assumed Maine's will follow Maine's statewide result and the same for Nebraska. But if Nebraska goes for Trump while one district goes for Biden that could add a very crucial EV -- just something to keep in mind.

As you can see in the chart, Biden's really not doing all that badly in a historic sense. He's still doing as well or better than the last three Democratic candidates. He is currently tied with where Barack Obama was at this point in 2012, only the second time Biden hasn't been leading the pack outright.

As you can see, though, once we get into October and the impact of the debates starts to be felt, things can change. Biden did not have anywhere near as bad a "September slump" as the other Democratic candidates, so it'll be interesting to see what happens in October.

But please remember, this chart only shows the Strong and Weak categories. So with none of the battleground states included, Biden still has enough EV to win the race. That's important, to keep things in perspective.

Now let's take a look at how Donald Trump is doing in the polling.

Trump Electoral Math

Trump's chart is a lot more stable, even at the low levels he's managing. In the Strong and Weak categories, Trump only saw one state move at all, as South Carolina firmed up for him right at the end. Otherwise, his numbers were completely flat for the whole period.

Instead, almost all the movement in Trump's chart happened at the margins, in the Barely Trump category. Trump started with 65 EV in Barely, which then dropped to 50 EV with the loss of North Carolina to Biden. This picked up to 68 EV as Ohio moved to Trump, but then by the end of the period it had moved right back out again. Trump hit a high point of 84 EV with the addition of Georgia, but it fell all the way down to 60 EV by the end, as Ohio went back to Biden and Iowa moved to a tie.

Overall, Trump's total moved from 185 EV up to his personal best of 204 EV for two days, but by the end Trump moved back down to 180 EV, an overall loss of 5 EV for the period.

Trump's numbers have stayed remarkably stable through the whole race, even with the fluctuations in the Barely Trump category. Normally this would be good news for a candidate, but Trump's problem is how low his ceiling appears to be. It is the end of September, and Trump has only cracked the 200 EV line twice in the entire race. By this point in the 2016 race, by comparison, Trump was not only solidly above 200 EV, he had even broken through the 250 EV barrier once.

Let's take a closer look at how Trump is doing, historically, with his Strong Plus Weak chart.

Republicans Strong/Weak

That's pretty dismal, you've got to admit. Trump has only once moved above 150 EV in Strong Plus Weak, and is currently at only 120 EV. This did not change at all this period, even though Trump did shore up his support in South Carolina from Weak to Strong.

Trump has only bested his own 2016 numbers once as well, during that same upward spike in mid-August. Since then, he's been almost completely flat in this category.

In fact, this is such a boring chart that there's really not a whole lot more to say about it.


My Picks

[I'm just going to cut and paste my introduction here from the last time around:]

Which brings us to the "gut feeling" part of the program, where I attempt to sort the states into the categories of "Safe," "Probable," and "Leaning" for both candidates, while leaving a few in the "Too Close To Call" tossup category. As usual, checking out's individual state graphs is crucial to see how much polling is being conducted as well as overall trends (rather than just taking the most recent poll as gospel). Also, there are full lists of states at the bottom of this column, so you can see where I've placed them all (together with their EV totals).


Likely States -- Biden

Safe Biden (17 states, 200 EV)
One state moved down from Safe Biden to Probable Biden, as a new poll out of Virginia showed the race tightening. All the previous polls have shown Biden with a very strong lead in what has now become a pretty solidly blue state, but Virginia polls are only reported about every two or three weeks or so, meaning we'll have to wait to see whether the most recent one was just an outlier or not. We did see the first poll out of Vermont from this election cycle, which showed exactly what everyone expected -- a strong Biden lead.

Probable Biden (6 states, 75 EV)
There were a lot of interesting things happening in the Probable Biden category this time around. As noted, Virginia moved down from Safe Biden. But the good news for Biden here is that Nevada moved up from Lean Biden, after one good poll showed a very strong lead -- much larger than the few other polls which have been taken here. In fact, an argument could be made to move Nevada all the way up to Safe Biden, but we're going to wait for at least one more good poll before we do so.

Three states in this category are also on the brink of moving up to Safe Biden -- Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin. This would be notable, since they are all battleground states that Trump is desperate to win. Biden's got a strong lead in all three states, and is above the critical 50-percent mark in both Michigan and Wisconsin. But because they've been so crucial this time around, we're going to wait before moving them up.

The other state in this category is Pennsylvania, which didn't see much movement. Biden is holding his lead there, but it is smaller than in the other former "blue wall" states.


Likely States -- Trump

Safe Trump (13 states, 81 EV)
Trump finally added a state to his Safe Trump category, as a very strong poll came in from South Carolina. Democrats would really like to see Lindsey Graham defeated in his Senate re-election race here -- which is still a possibility -- but the likelihood that Trump is going to win the state now has to be seen as pretty strong.

Probable Trump (6 states, 39 EV)
Trump lost one state here this time around, but it was good news for him as South Carolina moved up to Safe Trump. The other states still in this category: Alaska, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, and Utah.


Tossup States

Lean Biden (2 states, 15 EV)
There wasn't a whole lot of movement among any of the tossup states this time around, as just two states had to be shifted. Biden lost a state from Lean Biden, as Nevada moved up to Probable Biden. Otherwise this category stayed the same.

Arizona seems to be tightening, with multiple polls coming in constantly. Biden held an early lead here, but the state is approaching the point where it is a complete tie. For now, we're going to leave it as a Lean Biden state, but this could easily change the next time around.

New Hampshire saw one close poll last time around, but all previous polls had shown Biden with a fairly big lead. So it could just have been an outlier, or it could reflect a closer race. But until we see further polling from the state, it has to remain as only Lean Biden for now.

Lean Trump (2 states, 44 EV)
The best news for Trump this time around was that he is now is showing a very slight lead in Texas. The state has been in the Too Close To Call category all along, but it now should be seen as at least leaning in Trump's direction. This normally wouldn't be considered remarkable, since Texas has voted Republican in most recent presidential elections, but the fact that it has even been this close is what is really notable. Texas is famous for building up Democratic hopes and dreams only to have them come crashing back to reality on Election Day (see: Beto O'Rourke), and this time around will likely play out exactly the same. Things could always change, of course, but for now Texas has to be seen as at least Lean Trump. Texas joins Arkansas as the only other state in this category.

Too Close To Call (5 states, 84 EV)
Texas moved out of the Too Close To Call category this time around, which leaves five other states so close that it's anyone's guess which way they'll go on Election Day: Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio. Polling in all of them has been almost constantly coming in, but neither candidate has shown a lasting edge in any of them. Biden did just see one strong poll in Ohio, but it will have to be considered an outlier until it is backed up by a few other polls.


Final Tally

On the eve of the first presidential debate, the race has gotten tighter. Joe Biden needs to flip some of those battleground states back to his column to shore up his margin of victory, while Donald Trump desperately needs a game-changing moment to give him any sort of chance at all. Whether either of those will happen tomorrow night is an open question, of course, and we likely won't know the answer for at least a week or two, as voters' reactions to the debate percolate down to individual polls.

The biggest improvement this time around was in the "Tied" category, which now stands at 35 EV (Florida and Iowa). Biden lost ground overall, but then so did Trump. Biden's downward slide was bigger, though.

Comparing the relative strength of both candidates, Biden is currently at 206 EV in the Strong category, to Donald Trump's 87 EV. In Strong Plus Weak, Biden is already over the winning line with 275 EV, while Trump doesn't even have half of this at only 120 EV. So even if every single state in both candidates' Barely columns and the two tied states went for Trump, Biden would still win the race. For Trump to even have a chance, he's got to move at least one state out of either Weak Biden or Strong Biden all the way over to his side. This is possible, of course (anything's possible in electoral politics), but time is running out for Trump to achieve this bold goal.

If Trump doesn't manage to sweep all the battlegrounds and both tied states, then the only thing in question will be how big Biden's margin of victory will be. Right now, Biden's got 323 EV in his column, while Trump only has 180 EV -- a full 90 EV away from victory. Even giving Florida and Iowa to Trump would only improve this to 215 EV.

This is a tighter race than before, however. Biden lost ground over the past two weeks, so if he turns in a decent debate performance perhaps he can move some of those states back into his column, as well as shore up his support in some of the closer states. Trump, on the other hand, has to have a truly breakout moment during the debate which would shift the dynamics of the race significantly.

Right now, Biden could lose all of the following and still win the Electoral College and the election: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. If he wins any one of them on the night of the election (especially Florida or Ohio), then it might not matter how many lawsuits Trump files because the election will essentially be over at that point. Trump has to not only win all of those states, he also has to flip at least one more state from Biden.

So while the race is indeed tighter, Joe Biden still has an enormous edge. Biden almost has too many paths to victory to be accurately counted, while Trump only has one -- to absolutely run the table in every single battleground state and flip a few states that now seem to be in Biden's pocket.

Tomorrow night's debate might be the last best chance Trump has at moving these numbers, so it will certainly be interesting to watch, that's for sure.


[Full Data:]
(State electoral votes are in parenthesis following each state's name. Washington D.C. is counted as a state, for a total of 51.)

Joe Biden Likely Easy Wins -- 23 States -- 275 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 17 States -- 200 Electoral Votes
California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington D.C. (3), Washington (12)

Probable States -- 6 States -- 75 Electoral Votes
Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10)


Donald Trump Likely Easy Wins -- 19 States -- 120 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 13 States -- 81 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)

Probable States -- 6 States -- 39 Electoral Votes
Alaska (3), Kansas (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6)


Tossup States -- 9 States -- 143 Electoral Votes:

Tossup States Leaning Biden -- 2 States -- 15 Electoral Votes
Arizona (11), New Hampshire (4)

Tossup States Leaning Trump -- 2 States -- 44 Electoral Votes
Arkansas (6), Texas (38)

Too Close To Call -- 5 States -- 84 Electoral Votes
Florida (29), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18)


Polling data gaps:

Polled, but no recent polling data -- 6 States
(States which have not been polled since the beginning of August, with the dates of their last poll in parenthesis.)

Alaska (7/24), Arkansas (6/10), Connecticut (5/24), North Dakota (3/5), Mississippi (2/28), Tennessee (5/22)

No polling data at all, yet -- 10 States
(States which have not been polled so far this year.)

Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Louisiana, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Washington D.C., West Virginia, Wyoming


-- Chris Weigant


Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant


62 Comments on “Electoral Math -- A Pre-Debate Snapshot”

  1. [1] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Program Note:

    I will be writing a snap-reaction column to tomorrow night's debate, so it will have to be posted very late in the evening. Just to warn everyone what to expect...


  2. [2] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    i don't think anybody on either side trusts the pollsters this time around.

  3. [3] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Tomorrow night's debate might be the last best chance Trump has at moving these numbers, so it will certainly be interesting to watch, that's for sure.

    His last best chance is to impress the Hell out of everyone watching. Ahem.

  4. [4] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    darn tootin!

  5. [5] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:


  6. [6] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Speaking of the debate, how about a little drinking game!?

    Every time my guy flashes the famous Biden smile, I'll have a sip of Sambucca.

    I hope Biden comes out flashing that smile right in Trump's face. You know, try to disarm him right out of the gate.

    This is going to be so much fun, I can't even tell y'all!


  7. [7] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Make that Sambuca. Well, you know what I mean. I'm starting early.

  8. [8] 
    John M wrote:

    Trump has withdrawn TV advertising in all but 3 battleground states: Arizona, Florida, and Georgia.

    Biden in the most recent polls is also above 50 percent in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and I believe leads in both Nevada and Ohio also, but by a smaller margin.

  9. [9] 
    John M wrote:


    I didn't know you were in retail too. That's cool. Lucky that you get to make your own schedule. I don't have to work every Sunday. But my schedule does vary enormously in fact. Just whenever I am needed.

    I am in Florida. So I am in the Eastern time zone. Same as Toronto, Montreal, or New York.

    I wish I knew when the Democrats will take voting seriously. Hopefully starting now. Sustaining it will be the problem.

    I hope we're on a first name basis now Elizabeth.

    People resist and are not comfortable with change generally. I think this is why voting is still done with polling stations like it was back in the 18th century, for the most part.

  10. [10] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Very nice.

    I don't adapt easily to change but, the really cool thing is that, after a short while, I don't remember what it was like before the change. Heh.

    Take care and stay safe, John!

  11. [11] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    Holy Moley --

    The Lincoln Project got Sully!

  12. [12] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    Yup, tonight's debate is must watch TV. I'm REALLY looking forward to seeing if Trump has a meltdown on stage.

    Dunno who picked Fox's Chris Wallace to be the first.moderator but that choice should take the wind out of any, "The debate was rigged against me" post debate excuses.

    You be careful with that Sambuca, Elizabeth!

  13. [13] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    Oh and here's a Midas Touch offering including Bette Midler.

  14. [14] 
    James T Canuck wrote:

    I adore graphs, charts, trends and poling data, not for what information they impart but for what they subtly omit. When I see a poll I instantly wonder where it was taken, not by whom or from what age, sex, or other micro-voting bloc. For instance, if you ask 1000 college-educated white males, between 25 and 40 who is better suited to run the economy, Biden v Trump... if this question is asked on Wall st the results will be completely different to the exact dynamic were it asked 30 blocks away. Polls are notoriously fickle in the US as regional sentiment in urban areas can fluctuate from zip code to zip code.

    My confidence in the grace of the thoughtful society, voting with their maturity to wisely choose a leader based solely on the strength of a candidate's character has been eroded since 2016. Voting in a known bounder and unabashed cad simply because the other candidate was a woman. (and don't kid yourselves, that's what torpedoed Clinton, it wasn't that people disliked her more than Trump, it was a continuation of the American angst. Eight years of sturdy leadership by a black man so incensed white America, no one but a white man, regardless of his vulgarity, was a slam dunk in 2016...When you come to terms with that as a society, you'll enjoy maturity and growth as a nation. As it stands right now, America resembles a kindergarten class trying to elect a milk monitor, with all the attendant crying, wailing, and stomping off in a huff.) I'll have no truck with any other consideration, America has struggled to mature beyond its infancy as a democracy because it still holds Victorian era sentimentality up as a standard for electing individuals to office... By that I mean, the candidate must be in harmony with society's 'model' man, well-off, Ivy league, religious, family orientated, preferably of ancestral military blood and any other archaic characteristic usually assigned to upper-middle-class assumed snobbery. When one cuts through that reality one ends up with a white male whose family can trace their ancestry back 300 years because the family preferred to look back in awe instead of looking forward with excitement.

    When I was growing up in England in the 70's we looked to America for excitement and trend innovation, we all thought the US was full of bald detectives who 'loved ya baby' with leather-jacketed warm-hearted rakes who effervesced 'cool' and quirky hipsters that 'nanoo nanooed'... That was America selling the American way when America's standing at the top of the food chain was unassailable, sadly, America sat on its laurels and stopped maturing, like all teenagers, thinking it knew everything and could be told nothing.

    And here we are, today, in the now. We have forty-something, living in the basement, listening to KISS on vinyl referring to everyone as bro or baby without even the hope of a mid-life crisis to blame because he never experienced emotional growth.

    America now gives of the vibe that it really isn't old enough or wise enough to manage its own affairs, therefore it picks a Trump to lead in the hope he will absorb all the absurdity of the times and deflect from the rudderless nature of its direction. If you disagree, you need only to look to what drives issues like abortion and gun control, two moot discussions in every western democracy on the planet. If that isn't a tell you to recognize, try religion...No western democracy on earth even considers religion a part of political consideration, in fact it is the singular reason the Canadian 'progressive' Conservatives lost the last general election, their painfully religious leader repeatedly invoked his god and was soundly thrashed at the polls for doing so. That irreligious sentiment was cemented here in Ontario when Doug-the Plug Ford was swept into office on a Conservative ticket, indeed, the brother of Rob Ford who redefined vulgarity in Canadian politics long before Trump was heard bragging about grabbing pussies on a whim.

    Now, don't misinterpret the point I'm trying get across, I'm not America bashing, that I leave those who hate the US and everything it represents, if I hated the US I wouldn't give a shit who ran it into the ground or why, I would heap derision on it to smother and kill it. On the contrary, I have nothing but concern, with a smattering of hope, because I hold many Americans in the highest esteem from my many interactions with a mosaic of Americans from every corner of the union (with the exception of South Carolina, where I'm convinced all the village idiots in the country are instinctively drawn to procreate).

    I know there's a lot of hand-wringing and nervousness in the US right now, and I get it, no reasonable person wants to get in the mud to fight a pig...It is what it is, to coin a childish tautology. However, I have confidence in the collective decency of the American voter, I don't for a moment believe Democrats will stay away from voting in person due to CV19, in fact I think they will come out in droves. Nothing, in my experience, gets on an American's tits more than being told that their right to vote will be subverted in any way. Trump sealed his landslide loss before the echo died of him declaring "the only way we can lose is if they cheat"...that single utterance was so antithetical to an American ear, it will resound for a generation. Mark my words.

    Chin up, smiles on, smoke a joint and keep your stick on the ice.


  15. [15] 
    James T Canuck wrote:


    Waddaya know, we were both right...Therefore, it must be true.


  16. [16] 
    ListenWhenYouHear wrote:

    James T Canuck,

    Oh I remembered Don Jr.’s comments, and I do not disagree with your comments on Trump’s money laundering for Russia, but I also knew Eric told on daddy’s dirty deeds years earlier as well. The Times is reporting that Trump has over $400 million in loans that are coming due in the next 4 years based on the new tax returns that they received.

  17. [17] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:


    James T Canuck wrote,

    Voting in a known bounder and unabashed cad simply because the other candidate was a woman. (and don't kid yourselves, that's what torpedoed Clinton, it wasn't that people disliked her more than Trump, it was a continuation of the American angst. Eight years of sturdy leadership by a black man so incensed white America, no one but a white man, regardless of his vulgarity, was a slam dunk in 2016...When you come to terms with that as a society, you'll enjoy maturity and growth as a nation. As it stands right now, America resembles a kindergarten class trying to elect a milk monitor, with all the attendant crying, wailing, and stomping off in a huff.)

    Brutal. And likely spot on. Misogyny is impossible to quantify but beyond (or in addition to) Establishment Dems screwing Bernie, Comey and the Rooskies that's probably what sank Hillary.

    Again, Hillary not winning combined with Trump's lethal incompetence has the silver lining of hastening the rise of Progressivism so necessary to undo the effects of Reaganism ®.

  18. [18] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:
  19. [19] 
    Kick wrote:

    Elizabeth Miller

    Speaking of the debate, how about a little drinking game!?

    As long as we're not doing it to the words "fake news," we should be fine.

    Every time my guy flashes the famous Biden smile, I'll have a sip of Sambucca.

    We'll all get wasted!

    I like it. :)

  20. [20] 
    Kick wrote:

    I stole this from someone on Twitter who stole it from someone on Facebook.

    At the debate tonight, Biden should start his response to every question by looking at Chris Wallace and saying:

    "Well, that's the 750 dollar question, isn't it?" :)

  21. [21] 
    Kick wrote:


    Holy Moley --

    The Lincoln Project got Sully!

    "VoteVets" got Sully, and "The Lincoln Project" teamed up with them on that one.

    It ranks right up there with my favorite:

    Benedict Donald

  22. [22] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    LizM -

    Here's an article just for you...


    Enjoy! You're not alone...


  23. [23] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:


    This is a well considered miniature essay, JTC. No "America bashing" just the facts, Ma'am.

  24. [24] 
    Kick wrote:

    I want an article... just for me. ;)

  25. [25] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:


    Ahhh, thanks Kick. That gives me an excuse to post my fave Wake Up.<

  26. [26] 
    James T Canuck wrote:

    [17] 'Brutal. And likely spot on. Misogyny is impossible to quantify but beyond (or in addition to) Establishment Dems screwing Bernie, Comey and the Rooskies that's probably what sank Hillary.

    Again, Hillary not winning combined with Trump's lethal incompetence has the silver lining of hastening the rise of Progressivism so necessary to undo the effects of Reaganism ®.'

    I appreciate that my 'brutal' screed is being taken in the same context as it's meant... A jackboot to the jacksie of complacency sometimes offends, but always gets noticed.

    My call for tonight is not unlike most other peoples, I'm guessing.

    Trump will outdo himself in rudeness, vulgarity, idiocy and rage inducement, again. Same shit storm of lies, conspiracy theories, manufactured accusations of familial corruption, and most disgustingly of all, projection pedophilia. It's all Trump has, and it's designed to provoke.

    Biden, he's the man to watch, I think everyone knows what Trump is about, the world is going to be watching Biden's reactions. Will he get riled? Will he speak to his points over interruptions? Will he be give Trump a dry slap when he belittles his son, Bo? Will he collapse and leave the stage broken and sobbing?

    Will he say...."Well, that's the 750 dollar question, isn't it?" :)"?

    This would be a tough one to call were it not for the fact that very little is riding on this for Biden, Trump will have to work all his angles to see any benefit.

    Illegitimis non carborundum, Biden....


  27. [27] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    A grand juror has forced the AG's hand in the Breonna Taylor case and we're apparently going to get more info tomorrow. The juror wants to speak freely and it seems that he/she disagrees with the AG's public statements.

  28. [28] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    I received another anti Amy McGrath mailer today and, once again, Moscow Mitch's name does not appear anywhere.

    In addition to other weirdness it says:

    Greetings from Washington, DC
    America's 51st State!

    Making DC America's 51st state guarantees the radical Democrats will give the "Swamp" two socialist Senators to represent the lobbyists and influence peddlers

    It has all the inappropriate capitalized words, punctuation and bolding of a Fat Donny tweet. The projection and hypocrisy are breath-taking.

  29. [29] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    McConnell has refused to appear at an debate with a female moderator (or even co-moderator) or any debate that includes the Libertarian Party candidate.

  30. [30] 
    SF Bear wrote:

    JFC #29
    If this is true that McConnell has refused to debate if there is a female why if that not front page news on the NYT or the POST? It certainly should be. If there is a quote to that effect it would sink his chances in KY.

  31. [31] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:


    I love those guys and gals!

    Especially the one who said it was Biden's time. Indeed, it is ... written in the stars.

    Thank-you. Thank-you very much.

  32. [32] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    SF Bear [30]

    If there is a quote to that effect it would sink his chances in KY.

    He's to careful to say anything like that, but I'm not sure I agree with your assumption anyway. I've lived here too long.

  33. [33] 
    chaszzzbrown wrote:

    BREAKING NEWS: Biden camp denies Trump campaign request to cut him open and see if he is made of cake, pie, or some third thing.

  34. [34] 
    James T Canuck wrote:

    I just made a cocktail, rolled a few fatties, dissabled the bullshit filter on the smart tv (otherwise I'd miss half the dialogue)... ok , I'm tucked in.


  35. [35] 
    Kick wrote:


    BREAKING NEWS: Biden camp denies Trump campaign request to cut him open and see if he is made of cake, pie, or some third thing.

    Ice cream!

  36. [36] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Never have I wished for a commercial break as I have tonight. It's just painful...

  37. [37] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    the russians are definitely at it again on the internet.

  38. [38] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    Sunday night on Fargo, one of the characters said "You like pie? Yeah you do. Everybody likes pie." Then she baked a sinister pie.

  39. [39] 
    John From Censornati wrote:


    I couldn't last for 20 minutes.

  40. [40] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    "You like pie? Yeah you do. Everybody likes pie."

    Of course they do!

  41. [41] 
    goode trickle wrote:

    Hoo boy...

    The fact check o meter has not only been broken I think it has been vaporized tonight...

  42. [42] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    I...I....ah... I'm going to bed, now ....

  43. [43] 
    TheStig wrote:

    Lessons learned from Debate One: give the moderator a pair of microphone kill switches and put the candidates in isolated, sound proof booths.

  44. [44] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    I missed the opening of this evening's shit show but these are my impressions:

    1- Joe needed to demonstrate fundamental competence and he accomplished that. Also, Joe didn't drool on himself or melt like a snowflake in the face of Trump's obnoxiousness, so he checked that box as well. Trump set the bar very low for Joe and Joe cleared that bar by a mile. Of the two, Joe was the adult in the room.

    2- Trump needed to change the dynamic of this race and he failed to do so. No doubt his 43% of America that support him thought that Cheetogod "won" but I didn't see Trump changing any minds in America.

    Cain't wait for Kamala going up against Mike Pence.

  45. [45] 
    goode trickle wrote:

    A quick scan of major news outlets post debate all lead with a type of chaos headline, Fox on the other hand of course has the debate broken down into trump the victorious battler segments.

    Just another thing that makes you go hmmm...

  46. [46] 
    rdnewman wrote:

    I'm predicting Chris's thoughts and analysis of tonight's debate. All two words.

    "Good lord."

  47. [47] 
    chaszzzbrown wrote:

    Biden: "Allow me to demonstrate that I am not an empty soulless ghoul bereft of empathy"

    Trump: "Forests need raking!"

  48. [48] 
    James T Canuck wrote:

    You know folks, I'm going miss Trump, at least he went out the way he came in, a complete arsehole dullard.

    It's done. Trump's pulled the pin on his own gig. I'd be astonished if Biden agreed to another Trump melt-down, why would he, Trump will just do another re-run. Biden is ahead to stay.

    I was appalled and almost embarrassed by Trump's antics, and I have very little skin in the game, unless you think Trump is a disgrace to all mankind.

    Thankfully, it's over. Trump's cooked.


  49. [49] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Chris, I won't fall asleep until I read your reaction to the debate ...

  50. [50] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:


    Thankfully, it's over. Trump's cooked.

    D'ya really think so, JTC!?

  51. [51] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    You can't fault me if I'm not completely confident, you know, I've been through so much ...

  52. [52] 
    goode trickle wrote:

    Is it just me or did trump have a bad case of the coke sweats?

  53. [53] 
    James T Canuck wrote:

    CW is probably having his jaw wired shut to stop it from dropping every 100 seconds...



  54. [54] 
    James T Canuck wrote:

    Liz, dear... I know things are tough all over, but at the end of the day, this is an American affair. I have a cold, my kids do too, do I think Biden will win, you bet your ass i do. If he doesn't it won't be on me and it won't be on you.

    Snap out of it.


  55. [55] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:


  56. [56] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Now, I'm going to go and watch Moonstruck. Heh.

  57. [57] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Or, maybe I'll just have another swig of Sambuca ...

  58. [58] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    In any event, I believe I'm calling it a night.

  59. [59] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    OK, my snap reaction debate column is up...

    (The title sums up how I felt afterwards)

    Gotta go drink a bunch of alcohol now, if you'll excuse me...


  60. [60] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    OK, let's see what you all had to say about it...

    James T Canuck [26] -

    Shouldn't that be:

    "Illegitimus non carborundum"?

    I mean, it's usually said in the plural ("illegitimi") as in "don't let the bastards wear you down," but let's get our fake Latin correct, shall we?

    Heh. Sorry, that alcohol is already doing some good, as you can tell...


    JFC [29] -

    Really? Is that true about McConnell and the female moderators? Wow....

    BashiBazouk [36] -

    Amen to that. Could have used at least two ad breaks...

    TheStig [43] -

    Amen to that too, brother! See my article, I made exactly the same point...

    rdnewman [46] -

    I think it'd be closer to: "Holy crap, Batman!"


    chaszzzbrown [47] -

    OK, now THAT was funny!

    Final note:

    Sorry, LizM, it takes a while to type it all out. Hope you hung in there for the reveal.

    Didn't have to have jaw wired shut, but am DAMN glad I stocked up on beer. As that famous SCOTUS jurist Justice Fratboy said: "I like beer."

    OK, I'm going to go decompress further now...


  61. [61] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    Yeah, Elizabeth, rest easy. Nothing (adopts Sgt. Schultz voice) nooothing has changed tonight. Except that I'm embarrassed for my country.

    Thank you, fucking pussy Obama. Your "Hope and change" was a cruel disappointment, you let Russia shit all over our country and you let the Repugs steal your Supreme Court nomination.

    Thank you, fucking Establishment Democrats, for screwing Bernie over to offer us Goldman Sachs Hillary.

    Not a drop of alcohol this evening. I'm just pissed that this is the best that America could do.

  62. [62] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    I don't remember any of this. Apparently, I was commenting somewhere else, too, last night and I don't remember doing that, either. :0

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