The End Of The Cold War
Today, the Cold War's end is finally in sight. Begun almost immediately after World War II, the Cold War was the defining issue in American foreign policy right up to 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union. One final legacy remained for another quarter-century after the Berlin Wall came down, though: America's Cuba policy. This final leftover from the Cold War will now be brought to an end, decades after it had been proven not to work. President Barack Obama just spoke on the telephone with the leader of Cuba to finalize the two countries' new relations -- an event that hadn't happened in over half a century. The Cold War is now almost completely a matter of interest only to historians, to put things into context.
America's Cuban policy was always a personal one, driven by our hatred of Fidel Castro. The Bay of Pigs fiasco and the Cuban Missile Crisis cemented our policy into one of irrational behavior -- doing the same thing for 50 years, while continually expecting a different result. Harshness towards Cuba during this time was an absolute requirement for American presidents, lest they be painted "soft on communism." We slapped an economic embargo on the island that the rest of the world largely ignored (Cuban cigars and beach vacations have always been available in Europe), in order to crush the Cuban economy and force the Cuban people to overthrow Castro. The C.I.A. plotted (this is historical fact) with the Mafia to smuggle James Bond-like weapons (such as exploding cigars) into Cuba to get rid of him. None of it worked. Fidel Castro held onto control during the presidencies of Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush's son -- a total of ten presidents Castro lasted through. His continued leadership of Cuba showed how ineffectual our embargo and diplomatic shunning of Cuba has been, throughout the past five decades.
Castro finally stepped down in 2008, and handed over the reins of power to his brother, Raúl. This has paved the way towards much better relations between Cuba and America, since a lot of why the embargo was continued for so long stemmed from our sheer hatred for Fidel.
Supporters of the Cuban embargo would disagree, I realize. They'd trot out all the conventional reasons why we can't possibly have any interaction with Cuba: they are a communist nation, their government is totalitarian, there is no political freedom, all the Cuban political prisoners who have been jailed for questioning their government, Cuba's human rights record, and all the rest. These are all just hangovers from the Cold War mentality, however, since the same could be said of any number of other nations that America interacts with on the world stage -- all of which Americans are free to visit and see for themselves (unlike Cuba).
Take Vietnam, for instance. We fought a war -- and lost it -- against their communists, and now Vietnam is an important trading partner with the U.S. Or take communist China. Not only do they enjoy permanent "most favored nation" trade with the U.S., our government is actually heavily in debt to their communist government. It's ironic in the extreme that the world's biggest democracy is in hock to the biggest communist country, in fact. Totalitarian governments? Like, say, Saudi Arabia -- where women can't drive? That's just the most obvious example, there are plenty of others to choose from who all enjoy normal diplomatic relations with America, and where trade flows both ways. We now even are friends with Myanmar, and have to properly use this name instead of "Burma." The list of repressive governments who haven't warranted the same treatment we've doled out to Cuba is indeed a long one. The only difference is they are not ruled by Fidel Castro, really. That, and our shared history.
Barack Obama certainly added to his legacy today. Just as Nixon went to China, Obama will now go down in history as the president who opened up Cuba. How this will all play politically remains to be seen. Outside of the Miami area, Obama's on pretty safe ground. Most Americans favor opening up Cuba, and have for a long time. The policy we've been following is not only seen as outdated, but irrelevant to most people (at least outside the realm of cigar and rum aficionados).
Both support for Obama's new policy and opposition to it are going to be somewhat bipartisan. One prominent Cuban-American Democrat, Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey, has already strongly denounced Obama's move. But what will be interesting to see is the reaction from farm-state Republicans. In the past few years, there has been a quiet lobbying effort by farmers to be allowed to sell produce to Cuba. It's a big market right on the doorstep of the United States, and plenty of people think there's good money to be made by opening up trade with the island. The farther you get from Miami, the more reasonable Republicans might be on the issue, to put this another way.
America's Cuba policy has -- for decades -- been nothing more, really, than a pawn in the grand game of electoral politics. Florida is perhaps the most important swing state in the Electoral College, for two reasons. One is its size -- a whopping 29 electoral votes. The other is how consistent the state is in picking winners. Since the Cuban Missile Crisis, Florida has voted for the winner of the presidential contest in every election except Clinton's first (1992). That's 12 out of 13 elections -- a pretty impressive record.
Any presidential nominee during that period had to pander to Miami Cubans, by trying to outdo each other in support of the Cuban embargo -- much the same way nominees talk up their support for ethanol in Iowa. This era is now over. Even before Obama announced his new change today, support within the Cuban community in Miami for the embargo had severely slipped. It's a generational thing -- younger Cuban-Americans don't have the same fervor their parents and grandparents do against the Cuban government, to put it mildly.
Cuba will still be an issue in presidential politics in 2016, though. The Democratic nominee will finally be freed to speak of a rational and modern foreign policy towards Cuba, while the Republicans will be trying to outdo each other in their denunciations of Obama's actions. Two prominent Cuban-American Republicans are already thinking about running for president, meaning other Republicans are going to have to get really extreme to try to outflank either Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz on the issue.
Whatever the political fallout, President Obama made some history today. He had always indicated his willingness to relax our Cuba policy, starting from his first days in office. Barely three months into his term, he made it easier for Cuban-Americans to visit the relatives they left behind in Cuba and send them money. This was a reversal of a very hard line George W. Bush had drawn, and it represented the first indication of a major shift in our policy towards Cuba. Today Obama made the biggest step towards shifting our Cuba policy since John F. Kennedy was in the Oval Office. It is nothing short of the beginning of the end of the last vestige of the Cold War -- a policy that should probably have been jettisoned at least two decades ago. While Congress will have the final word on lifting the embargo -- which indeed may not happen for years to come -- President Obama will go down in history as the president who finally admitted that our Cold War policy towards Cuba has been nothing short of a dismal failure.
-- Chris Weigant
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Free people should be able to travel freely.
Damn. I just knew this was going to happen, sooner or later.
Those of us in the real free world, take note - if you have not yet traveled to Cuba, get to it before the inevitable American invasion!
CW-
End of an era to be sure, but the Cold War is frequently repurposed. Cuba is off the roster, N. Korea moves up the naughty list....and rightfully so. Russia's economy is in the toilet. Sanctions, and a bit of economic luck did that. Cold War Lite payback for Putin's fiddling in Ukraine. The game plods on.
Domain name I wish I had. Putinputyourshirtondickhead.
Since the Cuban Missile Crisis, Florida has voted for the winner of the presidential contest in every election except Clinton's first (1992).
... depending how you count Bush v Gore, where more Florida citizens legally eligible to vote tried to vote for the candidate who got more votes nationwide and would have gotten more electoral votes with Florida's, but where more votes were officially counted for the candidate who wound up being inaugurated.
Democrats can kiss Florida goodbye in 2016..
Michale
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End of an era to be sure, but the Cold War is frequently repurposed. Cuba is off the roster, N. Korea moves up the naughty list....and rightfully so. Russia's economy is in the toilet. Sanctions, and a bit of economic luck did that. Cold War Lite payback for Putin's fiddling in Ukraine. The game plods on.
Nailed it, TS...
While it's true that the old Cold War may be fini, the Cold War lives on...
The players change, but the game remains the same..
Michale
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JFC,
Free people should be able to travel freely.
I get it now!!
Yer being held prisoner in a Chinese Fortune Cookie Factory, right!? :D
Michale
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While Congress will have the final word on lifting the embargo -- which indeed may not happen for years to come -- President Obama will go down in history as the president who finally admitted that our Cold War policy towards Cuba has been nothing short of a dismal failure.
The embargo will remain in place until Cuba's leaders enact certain freedoms for the Cuban people..
This is one law that Emperor Barack The First cannot memoranda away...
Cuba is a dictatorship, no different than North Korea insofar as how the citizens are treated..
Sony catering to North Korea... Obama cratering to Cuba...
What a topsy turvy world it has become..
Michale
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... depending how you count Bush v Gore, where more Florida citizens legally eligible to vote tried to vote for the candidate who got more votes nationwide and would have gotten more electoral votes with Florida's, but where more votes were officially counted for the candidate who wound up being inaugurated.
Can we let that old tired dead horse rest in peace??
Every count before AND after the fact proved that Bush won Florida..
Basically the Left wanted to count and count and count until the Left got the result that THEY wanted...
Which NEVER was going to happen, as history shows...
All things considered, it's fortunate for this country that the "crazed sex poodle" didn't become POTUS...
Imagine Gore's reaction to 9/11..
"We filed a lawsuit in federal court to punish the terrorists who killed over 3000 innocent people"
-President Al Gore
:^/
Michale
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One good thing would come of a CUBA/US normalization of relations..
Cuba would have to extradite all the cop killers that are on the lam from the US and hiding in Cuba..
No diplomatic relations until every cop-killer is given up....
Michale
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Cuba is a dictatorship, no different than North Korea insofar as how the citizens are treated...
that's not entirely the case. this is not to say that the cuban population is well-treated. although definitely a dictatorship, cuba is not quite as totalitarian as north korea. i know i know, lighter shades of the same behavior. but cuba has dramatically eased restrictions on lifestyle choices such as religion - which is one reason the pope helped broker the current deal.
JL
If only the dictators in Cuba would be nice like the dictators in Saudi Arabia or Egypt or China, then the GOP could play ball.
Interestingly, Rant Paul (R) is siding with Emperor Obama. He apparently thinks that Floridians have more important issues upon which they'll decide who to vote for and that he can also cede KY's GOP primary delegates. Or maybe he's just pretending that he's running for prez.
That's not entirely the case. this is not to say that the cuban population is well-treated. although definitely a dictatorship, cuba is not quite as totalitarian as north korea. i know i know, lighter shades of the same behavior. but cuba has dramatically eased restrictions on lifestyle choices such as religion - which is one reason the pope helped broker the current deal.
I'll concede that it's a distinction.. But it makes little difference...
To put it into it's proper context, it would be as if the GOP was only a little LESS restrictive in it's Voter ID agenda..
Sure, it's better than worse.. But it's still bad... It's still unacceptable...
But, as I said... I am less opposed to it if Cuba gives up all the cop killers and extradite each and every criminal to the US for trial, incarceration and/or (in some cases, if we're lucky) execution...
Michale
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I actually think opening up relations with Cuba would do far more to help lead them towards a more democratic state than what we've been doing.
-David
I actually think opening up relations with Cuba would do far more to help lead them towards a more democratic state than what we've been doing.
How so??
As any parent can tell you, when you have a disobedient and recalcitrant child the very worst think you can do is reward bad behavior...
Much like Sony did with North Korea...
All this move will do is bailout the Castro regime and put them on an equal footing with civilized nations..
To put it in proper context, it would be as if the US would drop the Russia and Iran sanctions without either government changing their ways...
It rewards bad behavior..
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On the plus side, it guarantees that Florida will go GOP in 2016 and, if CW's prediction is correct, we'll have a GOP POTUS..
Ya simply GOT to like that!!
Michale
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The fact that Cuba and Russia have a defense/security pact doesn't concern anyone here at all??
Fascinating...
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Cuba is a country. It's not a child.
-David
Cuba is a country. It's not a child.
The same reasoning applies...
If opening up relations with recalcitrant countries leads to better behavior, we should drop sanctions against Iran and Russia and the DPRK....
Obama's Cuba stance, unsurprisingly, sends exactly the wrong message to the world...
Misbehave, destroy the will of your people, keep your people enslaved and beaten and the United States will reward you...
Michale
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Obama's Cuba stance, unsurprisingly, sends exactly the wrong message to the world...
Misbehave, destroy the will of your people, keep your people enslaved and beaten and the United States will reward you...
Where is that famous (infamous??) Liberal compassion for the downtrodden and the oppressed??
I mean, what's more important??
The basic human rights of the Cuban people??
Or the Obama/Democrat Political Agenda??
Michale
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The basic human rights of the Cuban people??
I'm not so sure that caring for basic human rights was the message our ongoing trade embargo sent to those living in Cuba. Many in the Cuban community in Miami may have seen it that way, but there's a division even there between hard-liners and those who want their relatives on the island to not be so cut off from the States.
Going with your naughty child analogy, I would ask what happens if he throws his cereal all over the floor. Do we teach him a lesson by making the whole family walk in a puddle of oatmeal, or do we still have to clean the floor, regardless of the "message" it sends?
JL
Going with your naughty child analogy, I would ask what happens if he throws his cereal all over the floor. Do we teach him a lesson by making the whole family walk in a puddle of oatmeal, or do we still have to clean the floor, regardless of the "message" it sends?
We make him clean it up and punish him by taking everyone's TV privileges away...
Put another way..
As a teacher, I am sure you have had to punish the entire class due to the actions of one child..
"Little Johnny just won't stop talking so EVERYONE misses recess today!!"
Thereby encouraging the other children to "police their own" so to speak..
It's a tried and true disciplinary concept..
Michale
"Little Johnny just won't stop talking so EVERYONE misses recess today!!"
Pedagogically speaking, collective punishment doesn't work - instead of getting students to police their own, it galvanizes them against the instructor. Even the ones who would otherwise support you and resent Johnny for disrupting their learning environment end up resenting the punishment and joining in the disruption.
The way to make a change is to get Johnny in private, away from the class, and show him that changes in his behavior will be rewarded, and the rewards will go away if he reverts to the old behavior. There's bound to be some push and pull, but ultimately the change happens.
JL
Pedagogically speaking, collective punishment doesn't work - instead of getting students to police their own, it galvanizes them against the instructor. Even the ones who would otherwise support you and resent Johnny for disrupting their learning environment end up resenting the punishment and joining in the disruption.
I'll bow to your expertise in these matters vis a vis the school environment...
However, the process DOES work enough to make it a viable process.. Another example would be Military Basic Training..
The way to make a change is to get Johnny in private, away from the class, and show him that changes in his behavior will be rewarded, and the rewards will go away if he reverts to the old behavior. There's bound to be some push and pull, but ultimately the change happens.
In the case of North Korea and Cuba, back channels has shown little success...
There is little to no incentive to change if the US uses carrots only..
Michale
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There is little to no incentive to change if the US uses carrots only..
Having said that I acknowledge as accurate your anticipated response that sticks haven't worked much to date...
So, it's a quandary..
It could possibly work out wonderfully..
But, as we have seen what happens when Obama goes it alone, it's more likely to blow up and cause more problems than it was intended to fix..
Michale
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Political support for the Cuba Embargo is inversely proportional to the square of the distance from Miami. Business sees opportunities in Cuba, and business finances US politics. Senior politicians of both parties see the embargo as counterproductive - it has helped the Castro brothers stay in power by providing a Boogie Man. Cuba is beginning to look past the Castro dynasty. Cuba has already looked past Russia. Cuba is not a child, but like children, countries mature.
Reality may finally be sinking in. I don't think Obama will catch much Republican flak from this. Noise will be made at upcoming Republican presidential debates and debating points will be mostly forgotten by Nov of 2016.
Political support for the Cuba Embargo is inversely proportional to the square of the distance from Miami. Business sees opportunities in Cuba, and business finances US politics.
So, yer saying we should ignore the humanitarian issues in favor of the business advantages.. :D
Glad I have that on record.. :D
Senior politicians of both parties see the embargo as counterproductive - it has helped the Castro brothers stay in power by providing a Boogie Man.
Oh bull donkeys... Fear is what has kept the Castro brothers in power.. Just like that statement that torturing terrorists proved to be a great recruiting tool..
If Castro didn't have the US as a boogie man, they would invent one..
It's already a BS caricature anyways...
Cuba is beginning to look past the Castro dynasty. Cuba has already looked past Russia. Cuba is not a child, but like children, countries mature.
And yet, there has been NO examples of maturity coming from Cuba, North Korea, Russia or Iran..
Yes, countries mature..
But, like children, they do not mature in a vacuum..
Reality may finally be sinking in. I don't think Obama will catch much Republican flak from this.
Yea?? That's what ya'all said about TrainWreckCare... Until the shit hit the fan and Obama caught a WHOLE LOTTA flak..
From EVERYONE... :D
Michale
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Michale,
Cuba would have to extradite all the cop killers that are on the lam from the US and hiding in Cuba..
You mean, there's more than one?
You mean, there's more than one?
At my last count there are 4... My research is not complete yet..
Michale
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So, yer saying we should ignore the humanitarian issues in favor of the business advantages.. :D
Glad I have that on record.. :D
I'm glad you're on record for putting words in my mouth.
Business sees opportunities in Cuba, and business finances US politics. No advocacy of this situation on my part. Far from it.
On to 300! :-)
I'm glad you're on record for putting words in my mouth.
Touche'... OK, I deserved that...
{{SLAAAPP}}
"But I don't think I deserved that one.."
{{SLAAAPP}}
"OK, now THAT one I deserved..."
-Captain Jack Sparrow
:D
Business sees opportunities in Cuba, and business finances US politics. No advocacy of this situation on my part. Far from it.
While you make a good point that good business opportunities are opened up by opening up Cuba, I just think that one DOES need to address the oppressed masses...
Due to the proximity of Cuba to the US and given it's "Gilligan's Island" feel, the people in Cuba are no more free than the people in North Korea...
On to 300! :-)
Danke... Yer a mensch... :D
Michale
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Due to the proximity of Cuba to the US and given it's "Gilligan's Island" feel, the people in Cuba are no more free than the people in North Korea...
Allow me to rephrase..
Due to the proximity of Cuba to the US and given it's "Gilligan's Island" feel it's natural to think that the people of Cuba have it all right...
But, in actuality, the people in Cuba are no more free than the people in North Korea...
They are simply oppressed in a nicer locale...
Michale
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What are their names?
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/12/18/what-s-next-for-the-cop-killers-hiding-in-havana.html
I know you don't like links, but I am winding it up for the night..
I'll go into more detail in the morning..
Michale
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Don't worry about it ... that article left no need for any further detail.
Yea, it's pretty open and shut...
"Know this well!! There can be no peace as long as Kirk lives!!"
-Klingon Ambassador
:D
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