[This is the second part of a two-part article. The first part ran yesterday, and looked at the plausible scenarios for Democrats in the early primaries.]

OK, on to the Republican race. For this race, I am first going to provide you with polling data from all the early primary states, and then (just because it's easier for me to stomach), I'm going to address the question of: Which GOP presidential candidate would be the best for any generic Democratic candidate to run against? In other words: Who are Democratic partisans going to be rooting for to win the GOP nomination?

Republicans, it should be noted, are pretty dispirited going into this campaign. They feel the weight of the Iraq fiasco, they feel the weight of the fact that they've got a pretty disappointing field, and they feel the weight of President Bush dragging them ever downwards. In other words, Republicans are not happy campers when they think about the 2008 campaign.

Which will most likely lead them to the same calculation Democrats were making four years ago -- which candidate is most electable? Especially against Hillary. Or Barack. Or even Edwards. That's a cold political calculation to make, and it certainly won't be easy for Republican primary voters to make, considering the field.

Unfortunately, their crash program to clone Ronald Reagan hit a snag called George W. Bush. Not only did he not live up to his "the next Reagan" promise, but he then subsequently restricted stem cell research, which could have led to cloning techniques to revivify Saint Ronald of Reagan.

Ahem.

What I meant to say was "Let's look at the polls." Nationally, Rudy Giuliani has a fair-sized lead at this point. Fred Thompson (who hasn't even announced) is running a comfortable second. This is not good news for John McCain or Mitt Romney, running respectively third and fourth.

The Republican primary schedule is different than the Democrats'. Iowa caucuses first, then Nevada. New Hampshire and Wyoming are currently set to hold a primary on the same day (see note under Wyoming heading). Then South Carolina, Florida, and Maine in quick succession before Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday (SDTT). A quick run through the state polling data (these are aggregate averages):

Iowa
Romney -- 24.0
Giuliani -- 16.3
Thompson -- 13.3
McCain -- 11.7

Nevada
Thompson -- 25
Romney -- 20
Giuliani -- 17
McCain -- 8

New Hampshire
Romney -- 29.0
Giuliani -- 22.0
McCain -- 13.3
Thompson -- 12.3

Wyoming
The state of Wyoming (hello Equality Staters, or perhaps I should say Cowboy Staters?) has rashly passed a law to move their Republican presidential primary up to (and I quote) "the same day as New Hampshire's primary." Democrats were smarter, and refused to move their primary up past SDTT. Because by doing so legislatively, Wyoming risks opening a time-space vortex. The reason I say this is that New Hampshire's primary calendar states "our primary will precede all other state primaries by two weeks."

You can easily spot the temporal paradox in these two laws. Does not compute. One state says "our primary will be two weeks before anyone else" and yet another state says "our primary will be on the same day," and the possibilities for opening a rift in the space-time continuum is just too great to ignore. Myself, I personally plan to be as far as I can be from Green Bay, Wisconsin (the approximate geographic midpoint between the two states) the entire month of January next year.

All kidding aside, Wyoming poll data seems to be completely non-existent. This is completely understandable, seeing as how the county I grew up in had more people in it than the state of Wyoming. Anyone who can provide accurate polling data for the state of Wyoming (either party) will earn my undying respect, at this point.

Which means that handicapping it is worthless. There is no data to handicap, in other words, so fill in the blanks for which Republican wins this race on your own. Ultimately, it probably won't influence the outcome of the nomination all that much.

South Carolina
Giuliani -- 25.7
Thompson -- 23.0
McCain -- 12.3
Romney -- 7.3

Florida
Giuliani -- 26.5
Thompson -- 21.0
McCain -- 10.3
Romney -- 10.3

Maine
This is a somewhat dated poll, from 4/24/07. Maine polling data is also hard to find -- sorry, Pine Tree Staters.

Giuliani -- 24
McCain -- 21
Romney -- 12
Thompson -- 9

So, entering SDTT, and admitting that Wyoming seems to be up for grabs, here's how the four candidates will do (assuming the polling doesn't change, which of course, it will):

Giuliani -- 3 wins; 2 second-place; 1 third-place
Romney -- 2 wins; 1 second; 1 third; 2 fourth
Thompson -- 1 win; 2 second; 1 third, 2 fourth
McCain -- 1 second; 3 third; 2 fourth

This does not bode well for John McCain, who may not even make it to SDTT. Romney's betting on winning Iowa and New Hampshire and declaring himself the unbeatable frontrunner. He may even win Nevada as well, drawing on the Mormon vote to do so. Giuliani does better the closer you get to New York City, though, and we may enter SDTT with a two-man race between Romney and Giuliani.

Republican voters, it should be noted, are much better about lining up behind a presumptive nominee very early in the race. Historically, Republicans usually have settled on a nominee before Democrats. What this means in this race is anyone's guess, but you can bet Romney is aware of this history.

Sizing up the field

But what I really wanted to explore is which Republican it would be better for any Democratic candidate to run against -- who would be easiest to beat?

Luckily, all the Republican candidates are weak in one way or another. And not just weak heading into the general election (where the moderates and independents in the middle are courted by both sides) but they're all weak in the primary among their own conservative base.

Conservatives may stay home in droves this election as a result. One can only hope.

Looking at them one at a time:

McCain painted himself into a corner, by trying to be a "maverick" and the "heir apparent" at the same time. He has largely moved away from his "maverick" position, backing President Bush up to the hilt on Iraq, and campaigning for Bush during the '04 election. But conservatives have longer memories than most of the American electorate, and McCain has committed several unforgivable sins in their eyes. He was part of the McCain/Feingold election reform law. He actually was against torture (I can't believe I just typed that, but it is true that conservatives hold this against him). And, the final nail in the coffin of his campaign: he recently supported Bush's immigration reform effort. McCain would be fairly easy to run against, but Democrats probably won't get to do so, since I predict that McCain will be the first to get out of the race.

Giuliani would be a joy to run against. He's got so much history as Mayor of New York City that most of the country just isn't aware of -- and it would be so, so easy to dig this stuff up and run attack ads. There is a wealth of "Here's why Rudy shouldn't be President" material out there, and the ads just about write themselves. Republican voters are conveniently ignoring this history, the way they are conveniently ignoring his well-documented post-9/11 flaws. Democrats would not be ignoring these, they would be using them as campaign ad ammo.

Romney would be tough to run against for a few reasons. He's young, for one, and when you see his shining face among McCain, Giuliani, and Thompson, it shows up in a big way. The voters want "change" this election, and his youthfulness would be harder to run against than the others. It would also be tough for Democrats to attack him, since they would shy away from using his religion against him (other Republican candidates may not be so gentlemanly -- watch South Carolina closely for such attacks). Romney is also from a very liberal state, where he was governor, and that may appeal to moderates and the middle-of-the-road crowd, come next November.

But for my money, Fred Thompson would be the hardest Republican to run against -- if he runs the right type of campaign. Now, Fred Thompson so far shows no sign of competence in running a campaign (he was going to announce on July 4th, remember?), but that may change. But if he can successfully use the Ronald Reagan Playbook to campaign, he would be a formidable opponent. He's basically an empty vessel, at this point, which is why conservatives are flocking to him before he even announces. They are free to believe that he's "one of them" and shares their values (whatever that means). And, like Ronald Reagan, he knows how to stand on his mark, deliver his lines in his soothing stentorian voice, and smile for the cameras while doing so. Sincerity is famously the ultimate weapon in politics -- once you can fake that, you've got it made. And Thompson might be able to pull it off successfully. Many people scoff at a Thompson candidacy, pointing out how light his experience is and how he doesn't work very hard at being a politician, but I am not so sanguine. I remember everyone thinking the same thoughts about Reagan, and we got two terms of him.

While you are free to disagree (many do) -- I would list the Republicans in order of who Democrats should want to run against as: McCain, Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson.

-- Chris Weigant