So Donald Trump just got a big political win, as the House Republicans held their collective noses and voted for the Senate version of their budget bill today, which will allow Trump to hold his Independence Day signing ceremony on schedule. This is a momentous development, and in fact it might wind up being the defining issue for the midterm elections next year. Democrats know this and are already planning on politically capitalizing on the worst aspects of the bill.

What is going to happen next will be a messaging battle. Which side frames the issue more convincingly in the public eye will have a decided edge heading into the midterm election season. And for once, it seems like the Democrats already have the upper hand.

The Democrats' message is a simple one. Republicans kicked millions of people off their health insurance to give Elon Musk a big huge tax cut. That's a simple concept, and it is not a popular one. Add in the fact that the GOP also is stripping food aid to poor people and it becomes impossible to ignore. Here is how Hakeem Jeffries summed things up last night, while delivering a record-breaking address on the House floor:

Children will be hurt. Families will be hurt. Women will be hurt. Seniors will be hurt. Everyday Americans with disabilities will be hurt. Hospitals will close, nursing homes will shut down, and community-based health clinics will be unable to provide services.

All so billionaires can have yet another tax cut they don't need. Another good Democratic talking point: this bill is the largest redistribution of wealth in American history, except that it is Robin Hood in reverse, because it steals from the poor to shower money on the rich. They could even dust off a Republican political tactic and accuse the GOP of "waging class warfare," except (as noted), in reverse. It is a war on poor people for the benefit of the rich.

Over in the Senate, Chuck Schumer had his own take on how Democrats will be presenting their political argument to the public:

"There's going to be some powerful ads," said Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the chamber's Democratic leader, before rattling off potential scripts for advertisements that are set to begin airing as early as next week. "'My daughter had cancer. She was doing fine. Well, all of a sudden, her health care was blown up.' 'I worked at this rural hospital for 30 years. I put my heart into it because I wanted to help people. I was fired.' Stuff like that is going to really matter."

Such ads are already teed up and will be airing immediately, especially in districts and states where Republicans are the most vulnerable. People who are already aware of what is in the bill disapprove of it by roughly a 2-to-1 margin, polls show, which means Democrats are already doing a good job framing the bill. And that's before Democrats even begin in earnest to point out the worst aspects of it. From now on, every time a rural hospital closes its doors (as one just did in southwest Nebraska, citing expected Medicaid cuts), Democrats need to highlight it and make sure the story gets heard by as many people as possible.

Senator Brian Schatz of Hawai'i explained how Democrats will be framing the bill:

To know this bill is to hate it. But once it's enacted, people will start to dig into its individual provisions, and, frankly, they are all terrible and unpopular. So our job is to point out, when kids get less to eat, when rural hospitals shutter, when the price of electricity goes up, that this is because of what your Republican elected official did.

Also aiding Democratic messaging efforts will be quotes from Republicans who (for the most part) denounced the bill but then wound up voting for it anyway. Here's just one example of many:

Senator Josh Hawley, Republican of Missouri, had been blunt about his concerns about the Medicaid cuts, warning his colleagues: "We cannot be a working-class party if you are taking away health care for working-class people." Still, he voted yes.

He's not the only one. Plenty of other Republicans in both chambers had plenty of scathing things to say about the bill -- before voting for it anyway. And many of them will be vulnerable next year, so watch for these scathing statements to prominently appear in Democratic ads with the tagline: "So why did he/she wind up voting for it anyway?" The best example is probably Representative David Valadao, who represents a rural district in California where over 60 percent of his constituents are on Medicaid. He too made some noises about opposing the deep cuts to Medicaid... but then he wound up voting for the bill as-is. As a result, his district is now the number one target for Democrats to flip a seat next year. But again, he's not the only one. There are plenty of vulnerable Republicans in swing districts who won their seats by slim margins who can expect a well-financed campaign from Democrats looking to flip their seats. The Republican House passing this bill might wind up all but guaranteeing that Democrats regain control of the chamber next year, in fact.

The biggest pickup opportunity actually comes as a result of one of the rare Republicans who actually stuck to his principles and voted against the bill. Senator Thom Tillis not only did so, he delivered a speech on the Senate floor excoriating the Medicaid cuts his own party was enacting. But then due to sparking Trump's rage, he immediately announced he would not be running for re-election. Democrats have an excellent chance of picking up this now-open North Carolina seat -- one of the few chances they've got to flip a Senate seat next year. Another might be that of Susan Collins of Maine, who also voted against the bill. Maine voters are an independent lot, but Collins has always waltzed to re-election before, so this is less of a pickup opportunity than North Carolina (but it still is a tempting target for Democrats).

Democrats have a pretty easy argument to make. Donald Trump lied. He said he wouldn't touch Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security -- and then he did, to the tune of slashing $1.1 trillion dollars from Medicaid. He betrayed millions of people who voted for him, some of whom will be among the 17 million people who will lose their health insurance. Food stamps will be cut as well, hitting the poorest Americans even harder. And Trump's personal hatred of wind and solar programs will hurt everyone in their electrical bills, since by walking away from these two energy platforms, Americans' electricity costs will be going up.

Democrats may even have a wild card helping them out as well, although who really knows whether Elon Musk will follow through or not on his threat to form a third political party "the day after" the bill passes? Even taking the holiday into account, if Musk hasn't made any moves by early next week in this direction then we can all chalk it up to his usual meaningless bluster, but if he doubles down on his grudge then he could wind up doing Republicans some real political damage.

Even without Musk's help, though, Democrats are in a pretty good place politically, over a year out from the midterms. For the first time since their election loss last year, the party is not only unified but they're all singing successfully from the same songbook. The Republican budget has not just united them, it has also given Democrats a clear target for their opposition. All they have to do is point out, over and over again, all the worst aspects of the Republican budget. All they have to do is remind the voters that Trump got elected promising to bring prices down on everything and instead has made the economy much worse. All they have to do is lay blame on the Republicans for their bill's vast political overreach. Of course, the midterms are still an eternity away (politically-speaking), so it's possible other issues will have risen to the forefront by the time campaigning gets underway next summer -- but until that does happen, Democrats have a big, fat target to direct their political fire at. People already hate this bill, and the more they find out about it the more there is to hate. All Democrats have to do is make the case: "Republicans threw millions off health insurance to give Elon Musk a big tax cut." That's a pretty easy case to make.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant