Elon Musk is back in the news. He's upset over the Republican budget bill and he's having a hissy fit about it online. Musk seems destined to lose this battle, since by coming out against the bill he set himself at odds with Donald Trump -- and Trump is a lot more popular with the Republican base than Musk. On the other hand, Musk has an almost unlimited amount of money and he's quite willing to toss millions at political causes when he feels like it. So it's tough to really predict how any of this is going to play out.

Just last week, Musk was apparently saying goodbye to politics. He left his job advising Trump and said he was going to devote all his time to his various companies. He also said he intended to pull way back on spending money on political causes. But since Musk is just as mercurial as Trump, he can change his mind at any point on any position he previously held. Which he may possibly be doing. Or not -- perhaps he's just having a hissy fit and it'll wind up being another little tempest in a teapot.

Musk didn't even get close to succeeding at his government job, it's worth mentioning. He talks a big game but doesn't produce much, which could be one of the reasons why Trump likes him so much (since Trump is the same, in this regard). Musk bragged that he'd be cutting the federal budget by a trillion dollars -- and then he upped it to two trillion dollars -- while on the campaign trail, but in the end he only managed to cut $160 billion with his shiny chainsaw. And even that figure is highly suspect, since the math he put out to make the claim has been proven to be wrong multiple times (by anyone who digs into the numbers even a little bit).

Now Musk wants Congress to codify all the cuts he made, but none of this apparently made it into the "One Big Beautiful Bill" that is making its way through Congress. So Musk tweeted out:

I'm sorry, but I just can't stand it anymore.

This massive, outrageous pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.

Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.

He went further in a second post, with a threat:

In November next year, we fire all politicians who betrayed the American people.

This all follows an interview Musk gave last week where he also badmouthed the bill. However, this bill is likely to be Trump's biggest legislative accomplishment for the entire year (and perhaps even for his entire second term), and Trump is pushing very hard to get it onto his desk in some form. So by trashing the bill, Musk is also trashing Trump's agenda.

Trump, of course, doesn't even really care what is in the bill, he just wants a big signing ceremony so he can brag that he signed "the biggest tax cut in American history" (which is not true), just like he did in his first term. And he's halfway there, since the bill has now passed the House. Senate Republicans are fighting the same intra-party ideological wars that the House Republicans did, so some changes to the bill will likely emerge before they corral enough votes to pass it (which they've optimistically scheduled for next week).

Musk is trying to influence this process. And in our post-Citizens United world, Musk is free to threaten the entire Republican Party with his vast fortune. For him, spending enough to influence every single race in the House would be mere pocket change, after all. If Musk wanted to, he could easily finance (to the tune of millions of dollars) a primary challenger for each and every Republican in the House who voted for the bill -- which is virtually all of them. Senate races are a lot more expensive (since candidates have to campaign statewide), but Musk could certainly afford to try this as well, if he really wanted to. It would be a stunning attempt at a hostile takeover of the Republican Party, but Donald Trump already proved that such things can indeed happen.

I doubt it'll really come down to Musk-versus-Trump. Musk will probably get distracted by something else before spending vast amounts of money in an attempt to remake the party in his own image. And even if he doesn't, all of his money might not be enough anyway.

The Republican Party under Donald Trump already has a pretty poor track record of getting MAGA favorites elected -- especially in the Senate, where they blew a number of races they probably could have won (with better candidates). Achieving victory in the primary doesn't necessarily equate to victory in the general election -- even in red states such as Georgia. And Musk's money has already proven to be toxic in one statewide race in a purple state, as his chosen candidate for a state supreme court seat got beat by a whopping 10 points, even though the polling showed a very close race beforehand. Voters resented Musk's attempt to flat-out buy the seat, and they reacted at the ballot box in a big way. If any other slightly-less-obnoxious billionaire was making threats to primary every GOP officeholder in sight it might be a more worrisome situation for Republicans in Congress, but this is Elon Musk we're talking about.

For the time being, Musk seems destined to lose this battle. The budget bill is the only train leaving the Republican station and at this point it seems like it is in the "too big to fail" category. As mentioned, this is likely the only piece of significant legislation that Congress is likely to pass this year, so it's doubtful that any of the Republican senators now holding out will actually cause the bill to fail in the end. Some tweaks will be made, a few items either tossed out or tossed in, and they'll eventually corral the votes they need. The House will make a bunch of noise but they will also eventually pass whatever comes out of the Senate. Trump has demanded that the bill be on his desk by July 4th, and while that's not guaranteed at this point (depending on how prolonged the intra-party GOP battles are), it's certainly still possible. Trump will sign the bill with a flourish and Musk will be left whining on the sidelines. That now seems to be the most likely outcome, at any rate.

By next year's midterms, Musk will likely have moved on from his current snit over the budget bill. He may spend money on some of the races, but since this could backfire on him in the end there's no guarantee that he'll accomplish much. Donald Trump has taken exactly the same attitude towards Musk as much of the rest of the Republican Party has taken towards Trump, by brushing it all off with: "It's just Musk being Musk." Pay no attention, in other words -- he'll probably forget all about it by tomorrow.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant