ChrisWeigant.com

Greene Backs Down

[ Posted Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 – 16:15 UTC ]

And so Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene's doomed attempt to take down yet another Republican House speaker appears to have ended with a whimper, not a bang. After meeting with Speaker Mike Johnson twice (both yesterday and today), she appears to have backed off -- at least for the foreseeable future. With Greene, you never really know what she'll do next, but at least for the time being she appears to have been talked out of forcing her "motion to vacate the chair" onto the House floor this week.

Perhaps it was because the measure was guaranteed to fail... perhaps it was because Johnson gave her some sort of secret quid pro quo in their meetings... but the safe money is on: "perhaps it was because Donald Trump is against the idea and reportedly called her up this weekend to tell her not to." Trump carries the most weight in any Republican-on-Republican battle, and he has come down squarely on the side of Johnson (which was somewhat of a surprise). This means Greene moving forward would not please Trump at all, but instead possibly incur his wrath -- which is the one thing that virtually every current Republican politician now fears the most.

Greene tried playing hardball with Johnson yesterday, when she and fellow malcontent Representative Thomas Massie tried to browbeat Johnson into accepting their demands (which they then leaked to the press). Here is their list (emphasis in original):

  • No further aid for Ukraine;
  • A return to the "Hastert Rule," meaning no legislation is brought to a vote without support from a majority of the House majority;
  • Defunding the special counsel probes into former President Donald Trump in upcoming appropriations; and
  • Enforcement of the "Massie Rule," whereby government funding is automatically cut across the board if no superseding agreement is reached before a set deadline.

Most of these aren't all that problematic for Johnson (at least until the election happens in November), as the article goes on to point out. Most of the must-pass bills have already passed for the year, which would leave only one real pivot point of contention -- the expected vote to punt the budget football past the election instead of having a budget in place on the first of October. If Johnson did agree to all these items and then attempts to pass a continuing resolution to achieve this budget punt, Greene could go ballistic and call for his ouster in early October -- right before the election, in other words. This wouldn't exactly be a good look for the voters, since it would remind them all over again of how dysfunctional this Republican House has been.

But reportedly Johnson didn't give any actual commitments on any of Greene's demands. There are a few reasons why Johnson held firm, first and foremost being the fact that Democrats have already publicly stated that they will support him (by refusing to even allow the motion to vacate to get a House floor vote). Knowing his leadership job is safe gives Johnson the luxury of ignoring Greene, obviously. The other dynamic at play here is the lesson Johnson learned from what Kevin McCarthy initially had to go through through to become speaker. It took a seemingly-endless series of votes before he won the speaker's gavel -- which only happened because he cut several side deals with recalcitrant GOP members, effectively giving in to their demands to weaken his power as speaker before he even got the job. Johnson still lives with a lot of these weaknesses in his own speakership (most prominently the fact that Greene can even force the "motion to vacate" vote on her own -- as can any single member of the House), so why should he pile more on top of what he already has to deal with?

But what really took the wind from Greene's sails was what predated this meeting. Because Trump (who usually doesn't get involved in such details) took an active interest and called Greene up to talk her down:

[Donald] Trump and the Georgia firebrand [Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene], who speak often, had a lengthy phone call over the weekend, according to three Republicans familiar with the matter. Trump's message to her, per those people: Stand down from the so-called motion to vacate.

"I have it under very, very good sources that President Trump did engage. And I'm hoping that perhaps one would come to the conclusion: 'You made your point,'" said Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), citing a weekend discussion the former president had with Greene. "But don't be Kamikaze, because if you go for this, you're gonna get beaten down. And he made that point. I'm hoping that's the outcome."

Another Republican, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations, put it more bluntly: "He told her not to do it."

When your plan of action is so crazy that not even Trump is for it, that's a big problem. Which is why Greene backed down, obviously. Of course, she's still out there trying to save face, but it certainly sounds like a capitulation from her stance last week that she would definitely be forcing a floor vote on her motion this week:

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is seemingly retreating from her threat to hold a referendum on Mike Johnson's speakership this week after two meetings with the GOP leader.

The Georgia firebrand is backing away from her pledge to hold an ouster vote, for now, saying the small band of conservative rebels interested in booting him would continue to watch Johnson's actions moving forward. The speaker was widely expected to survive any attempted firing this week, as Democrats had committed to helping him.

"We will see.... Right now the ball is in Mike Johnson's court," she responded, when reporters repeatedly pressed her on whether she would carry out her promise to force the vote.

. . .

During an impromptu briefing on the Capitol steps with her chief ally Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), Greene offered no end date for the duo to decide when to try to force a vote on ending Johnson's reign and said only that his runway is "pretty short." Greene cautioned that her new stance didn't "necessarily" mean she had ruled out making a move this week, while Massie attempted to add an even more urgent condition.

"We actually have to see progress hourly" from the speaker, he said, though neither Greene nor Massie provided few specifics on what that would look like.

Despite making several key requests of Johnson in their two lengthy meetings this week, Greene and Massie walked away without a clear commitment from him -- and instead urged reporters to go talk to the GOP leader.

That's a nice attempt at spin, but what it means is that Johnson, Trump, and the Democrats' commitment to vote the motion down have all combined to leave Greene and Massey no viable path forward.

Trump, of course, is only really interested in Trump. And with the election going full-bore now, anything which draws the political media's attention away from him and spotlights Republicans bickering among themselves is not going to be helpful to him. He knows this full well, which is why he moved to defuse the situation.

If Greene truly does back down and never moves to force the vote on her motion to vacate, it appears that Johnson will keep his job for the rest of this year. Republicans who are annoyed with him (and there are more than just Greene and Massey, to be sure) are figuring that the time for them to move will be after the election. If Republicans retain control of the House in November, then their first order of business next January will be to elect a speaker. That is where Johnson will likely face a challenge (or even "multiple challenges"). For the time being, he's seen by Republicans -- from Trump on down -- as "good enough to continue as an interim speaker for the rest of the year." It's not exactly a ringing endorsement, but it'll have to do.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

2 Comments on “Greene Backs Down”

  1. [1] 
    Kick wrote:

    Greene tried playing hardball with Johnson yesterday, when she and fellow malcontent Representative Thomas Massie tried to browbeat Johnson into accepting their demands...

    * No further aid for Ukraine;

    Thank you, Marge, for your help in getting (more) aid for Ukraine enacted by forcing SOTH Johnson into the arms of the Democrats (not in disarray) who are playing a game of chess while you amuse yourself attempting tiddlywinks with checkers pieces.

    * A return to the "Hastert Rule," meaning no legislation is brought to a vote without support from a majority of the House majority;

    Thank you, Marge, for your help in reminding Americans about Dennis Hastert, the longest-serving Republican SOTH who was indicted on multiple federal charges for crimes he committed in connection with paying hush money to underage students he molested while coaching wrestling. While it obviously isn't a crime to pay hush money in order to buy silence, it's often the coverup that can land your guilty ass into prison.

    Dennis Hastert "serial child molester," received a sentence of 15 months in prison along with two years' supervised release thereafter and a quarter million dollar fine and will henceforth be known as the highest-ranking elected official in the history of the United States to go to prison... oh, wait; I'm being reminded this record has some stiff competition from Defendant Donald.

    * Defunding the special counsel probes into former President Donald Trump in upcoming appropriations;

    Thank you, Marge, for reminding Americans that the "lock her up" chanting MAGAts like yourself who foamed at the mouth at the thought of Trump weaponizing the Department of Justice against his political opponents are hypocrites of the highest order.

    * Enforcement of the "Massie Rule," whereby government funding is automatically cut across the board if no superseding agreement is reached before a set deadline.

    Kick the can... yawn.

    When your plan of action is so crazy that not even Trump is for it, that's a big problem.

    Of course, that list of demands is definitely Trump's plan of action, but now is not a good time for Marge and the MAGAts to set the House on fire only to get burned by being outmaneuvered by the SOTH and the Democrats.

    Marge has been conspiring directly with Trump since the day she was sworn into office and met at the White House for a January 6 planning session:

    https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1341162485253070849

  2. [2] 
    Kick wrote:

    It appears Marge has decided to light the match.

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