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My Third Anniversary Blogging

Chris Weigant — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 01:47:52 +0000

This column apparently shares a birthday with none other than Donald Duck, who turned 75 years old yesterday. Who knew? Yes, my column turned three years old yesterday, since my first foray into blogging happened on Huffington Post on June 9, 2006. Since I don't follow horoscopes, I have no idea what the metaphysical significance is of this column sharing the date with a duck who doesn't wear pants, so I will leave that for wiser minds to decide.

A Surprise In Obama's Poll Numbers

Chris Weigant — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 23:28:05 +0000

It really is a bit early to focus on President Obama's approval ratings in the polls, I know. But, rather than looking at the overall picture of how he's doing, I have been noticing something interesting which I don't believe others have picked up on -- Obama's numbers dramatically improve depending on the sample used by the pollsters. When "likely voters" (LV) are polled, the numbers they give are different from when either "registered voters" (RV) or "all adults" (A) are polled. Obama's LV approval rating is about five points lower than the RV/A numbers. The difference is more pronounced in the disapproval ratings, where LV numbers are fully ten points higher than RV/A numbers.

Final Electoral Math -- My Election Picks

Chris Weigant — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 22:41:40 +0000

But the most exciting news is that Al Franken will win a very tight race in Minnesota. Senator Al Franken will take over from Senator Hillary Clinton as the biggest annoyance to Republican peace of mind across the country. Just the fact that Franken will now be in the United States Senate is going to drive some right-wingers clear around the bend (that's my prediction, anyway).

Barack Obama Is Smarter Than Us

Chris Weigant — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 00:21:57 +0000

But it has to be said -- Barack Obama is where he is today because he is smarter than us. Now, by "us" I am not referring to you, dear reader (perish the thought!), but rather the collective "us" out here blogging in the progressive trenches on the left. We (and I certainly include myself in this) have been second-guessing Obama's political tactics and strategy for over a year now. Obama has had us tearing our hair out at times with frustration, and each time he wound up proving us wrong.

Electoral Math -- Obama Has Closed The Deal

Chris Weigant — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 22:58:51 +0000

If you detect a certain giddiness here at Electoral Math Central, it is due to the fact that the election is actually drawing nigh, after a seemingly eternal campaign season. It's been a long, long road to where we find ourselves, and we're all feeling the strain. But fear not! Election Day is just around the corner, and just about everything seems to be breaking Obama's way.

Electoral Math -- Obama Holds His Lead

Chris Weigant — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 23:02:00 +0000

Which reminds me, what the heck is John McCain doing in Pennsylvania? He must be counting on one whopping big Bradley Effect there, because almost every poll I've seen says he doesn't stand a chance in the Keystone State.

Electoral Math -- Obama Lead Insurmountable?

Chris Weigant — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 23:09:58 +0000

This week's word is going to be "insurmountable." Look for it coming from the lips and pens of pundits everywhere in the next week. Because while mainstream media journalists are obviously trying to portray this race as a lot closer than it really is (better ratings that way), if Obama can just hold on to the leads he has right now -- not improve them in any way, just hold them -- then Election Day viewing parties nationwide may be over before anyone's even finished their first beer.

Electoral Math -- Obama Landslide?

Chris Weigant — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 22:59:59 +0000

I have to admit, that's a pretty provocative title. And enumerating the poultry before they emerge from the ova is always risky... as the saying goes. But it's hard to look at this week's polls without the word "landslide" appearing in your forebrain.

Electoral Math Looking Good For Obama

Chris Weigant — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 22:31:06 +0000

It's time once again for our weekly look at the state polls in the electoral race between John McCain and Barack Obama. Now, a lot has happened since last week's column, including the first debate, the "suspension" of McCain's campaign, Wall Street continuing to crash and burn, and Sarah Palin finally sitting down with Katie Couric (Katie must be beside herself with joy by this point, because she seems to be the only reporter Palin will now talk to). Palin interviews have headlined on CBS' evening news show for four weeknights in a row now. And that's not even mentioning the parody on Saturday Night Live ("I'd like to use my lifeline!").

Electoral Math Update -- Obama Bounces Back

Chris Weigant — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 23:11:02 +0000

Since last week's dismal outlook for Obama, there has been an absolute flood of state poll numbers released. One day after last week's column ran, over thirty states released polls on the same day. Whew! They even polled the District of Columbia, for the first time in the entire election season (you can see why they hadn't bothered up until now -- it unsurprisingly came out 82/13 in Obama's favor). But so many state polls are being released so fast, that for the first time every single state has been polled recently -- and not just in the past month, but in the past week. This flood of data is a good thing, though, as it keeps the electoral map a lot closer to the current voter preferences state-by-state.

Addendum -- Flood Of New State Polls

Chris Weigant — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 06:04:58 +0000

Yesterday, I did a roundup of the state polls and the electoral math outlook for the presidential race. Today, I checked the numbers as I do every morning, and over thirty states had new poll numbers -- an astonishing amount of data for one day. Even Washington, D.C. got polled, for the first time ever in this election cycle. It's easy to see why D.C. doesn't get polled much, since the outcome isn't exactly in doubt -- the spread in this poll is greater than any other state at 82% for Barack Obama and a paltry 13% for John McCain.

Electoral Math Checkup -- Obama's Low Point?

Chris Weigant — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 22:33:28 +0000

Barack Obama has had a hard few weeks in the polls. In fact, this week's check of how the electoral math plays out may (hopefully) be his lowest point during the campaign.

Electoral Math -- Obama Sure Could Use A Bump

Chris Weigant — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 22:25:40 +0000

It's time once again to take a look at how the electoral math is shaping up for Barack Obama and John McCain. While the news this time around isn't all that great for Obama, I wanted to take another of these snapshots of the polls -- before the running mates are announced and before the conventions happen -- in order to provide a statistical baseline to see how big a "bump" in the polls either candidate will get in the next few weeks. My analysis in short: while the news isn't dire quite yet, Obama could certainly use such a bump at this point.

Electoral Math Charts Updated

Chris Weigant — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 23:12:01 +0000

It's time once again to take a look at the Electoral College math from state-level polling. Nationwide polls are not completely meaningless, but they are pretty irrelevant -- because that's not how we elect a president. You have to win enough states to get more than half the electoral votes in the Electoral College. While many would like to change this system, it's what we've got for the 2008 election, and so looking at the state-level polling is much more important to figure out where the race is right now, and what the trends are.

Charting The Electoral Math Looks Good For Obama

Chris Weigant — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:42:40 +0000

Now, I don't want anyone to be swept up in untimely exuberance, and firmly caution against prematurely popping champagne corks here. There's a lot of time left in this race, and anything can happen. But things are undeniably looking good for Obama's chances of winning versus McCain's.

Electoral Math, From Knucklebiter To Landslide

Chris Weigant — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 22:30:47 +0000

For the first time in the general election campaign, I am ready to take a look at the electoral map and do some electoral math. Now, we're still pretty far out from Election Day, so likely any of these guesses will be laughably wrong when it rolls around. But we've got to start somewhere.

The 269-269 Electoral Tie Scenario

Chris Weigant — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 23:17:29 +0000

Last Sunday on the political talk shows, I noticed an interesting thing. An electoral math scenario for the outcome of the election in the Electoral College is being floated by some pundits: what happens if we get a 269-269 tie? I've noticed it more from right-wing commentators than left, but I think its true appeal is to the political wonk of either stripe -- a "what if" game to make this already exciting election even more so.