ChrisWeigant.com » Obama Poll Watch

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2012

Chris Weigant — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 22:34:18 +0000

President Barack Obama continued a three-month upward swing in the polls in January, with his average job approval rating for the month ticking up 1.2 points, and his disapproval rate falling by exactly the same amount.

Obama Poll Watch -- December, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 23:07:32 +0000

President Obama had a pretty good month last month in the job approval polls, bettering his standing in both approval and disapproval by roughly three-fourths of percentage point. This may not sound like that big a deal, but it was the second straight month of solid gains for the president in both categories.

Obama Poll Watch -- November, 2011

Chris Weigant — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 22:34:27 +0000

This month Obama poll watchers got some good news, and some bad news. This was capped off, at the end of the month, by the Washington punditocracy making an incredibly stupid comparison between polling for Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter -- which we will address at the end of the column (complete with a "guess the president" graph quiz, for your amusement).

Obama Poll Watch -- October, 2011

Chris Weigant — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 22:06:08 +0000

Barack Obama's job approval poll numbers in October were flat. Very flat. So flat, in fact, that he tied his own "flattest month ever" record, which he initially set back in November of last year. Obama's change in approval and disapproval combined last month totaled only a single tenth of a percent -- which is almost as flat as numerically possible.

Obama Poll Watch -- September, 2011

Chris Weigant — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 22:49:34 +0000

Barack Obama's poll numbers in September were not good. In fact, they were pretty bad. Obama fans looking for good news will have to be content with the fact that at least Obama seems to be slowing the trend of his dropping numbers somewhat. This isn't exactly a turnaround for him, but September was a lot less of a drastic change than the three months which preceded it.

Obama Poll Watch -- August, 2011

Chris Weigant — Mon, 05 Sep 2011 23:19:20 +0000

For President Obama, August is indeed the cruelest month.

Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 00:17:39 +0000

The easy answer to the question: "Who 'won' the debt ceiling debate?" is: nobody. The public sees everyone involved in a more negative light than when the whole manufactured crisis began. Hopefully, politicians will take note of this, but it is quite likely they will not, and this new standard of brinksmanship will become the norm, every time the debt ceiling debate arises. There's a comforting thought, after the past month, eh?

Obama Poll Watch -- June, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 20:21:31 +0000

As many were predicting, President Obama's bounce in approval polls due to the death of Osama Bin Laden did not last very long. While Obama started the month still strongly riding the wave of public approval from the Bin Laden raid, this had mostly dissipated by the second week in June, and Obama's poll numbers flattened out after that. The plateau he hit at this point is slightly higher than he had before the "OBL bump," but that's about the only consolation for Obama fans in the June numbers.

Obama Poll Watch -- May, 2011

Chris Weigant — Fri, 27 May 2011 06:04:25 +0000

This month was the best month President Barack Obama has ever had in the polls, when measured as change over the previous month. If you count it one way (measured by absolute values) Obama's best month was technically the second month into his term -- when he was still enjoying his "honeymoon" period, and had 63.4 percent support from the public. But in terms of actually changing public opinion, May was indeed the best month Obama's had, by far.

Obama Poll Watch -- April, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 04 May 2011 22:29:32 +0000

The death of Osama Bin Laden on the second day of this month has overshadowed Obama's poll numbers from last month already. Obama's poll numbers in May are going to be a lot more interesting (to put it mildly) than his poll numbers from April are going to be. I realize all of this, but I still (for completeness' sake) feel obligated to put out this monthly report of where Obama stood last month with the public.

Obama Poll Watch -- March, 2011

Chris Weigant — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 22:06:53 +0000

President Obama's poll numbers slipped back a bit in March, bringing an end to his recent "bump." This was Obama's first bad month in a while, ending the positive trends Obama had set for the past two months in approval rating, and for the past five months in disapproval rating. In March, Obama lost all the ground he had gained in February, but still finished the month up from where he started the year. In a statistical twist, Obama's approval and disapproval numbers for March, 2011 exactly matched his numbers for March, 2010.

Obama Poll Watch -- February, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 21:17:33 +0000

In January, President Obama had the biggest improvement in his public approval rating of his entire presidency. In February, Obama consolidated and built on his January "bump," by posting his second-most-improved month ever. This turnaround has set the clock back for Obama over a full year (in terms of his overall polling numbers), to roughly where he was in December, 2009. All in all, not a bad month for the president.

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 05:48:41 +0000

Obama poll-watchers have been waiting to see a "bump" upward in public opinion job approval ratings pretty much ever since he took office. In two years, there really hasn't been one. Until now.

Obama Poll Watch -- December, 2010

Chris Weigant — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 11:58:38 +0000

President Barack Obama had a mildly good month in the polls during December. Not a fantastic month, mind you; maybe not even a great month... but a mildly good month, nonetheless.

Obama Poll Watch -- November, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 22:50:57 +0000

President Obama just had his most stable month ever in the public opinion polls. This month also caps off a truly remarkable year of polling stability for Obama.

Obama Poll Watch -- October, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 20:44:20 +0000

Obama got a mixed bag of candy and rocks this Hallowe'en, at the close of October. Feel free to make your own comparisons to the mixed election results, but we're talking here about the month leading up to the elections. Obama was out on the campaign trail in a big way, and his numbers were both up and down as a result. Let's take a look at the chart:

Obama Poll Watch -- September, 2010

Chris Weigant — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 20:34:02 +0000

President Obama got a bit of a bounce in his monthly poll average in September, but the news is of a decidedly mixed variety. There is good news and bad in the numbers from last month for Obama, and it's looking like there won't be much of a pre-election change in his numbers which could help congressional Democrats out on the midterm campaign trail.

Obama Poll Watch -- August, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 20:25:22 +0000

Augusts, to be frank, are not President Obama's friend. The past month was no different, at least as measured by public opinion polling. Obama was on a downswing heading into the month, and his numbers reflect this in a stark way. In other words, it was a bad month for Obama.

Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 21:32:07 +0000

President Barack Obama has reached the first crossover point of his presidency, where his job approval numbers with the public are lower than his disapproval numbers. This is not exactly good news for Obama fans, especially heading into a midterm election.

Obama Poll Watch -- June, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 22:29:52 +0000

Obama, after gaining a bit in his average approval ratings in May, slipped back in June. But the reversal was slight, continuing a five-month streak of amazingly stable numbers. Since February, Obama's approval rating has stayed within one half of one percentage point, which is pretty remarkable. Unfortunately, this trend may be at an end, and his numbers may be headed even further downwards in July.

Obama Poll Watch -- May, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 08:27:04 +0000

While I would immediately caution everyone not to get overly optimistic about what I'm about to say, President Obama's approval rating was looking up in April. Gains were modest, but were pretty much across the board. Although, as I said, the end of the month saw a slight reversal to this trend, likely the result of the drip, drip, drip nature (or, more properly, "gush, gush, gush") of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Obama Poll Watch -- April, 2010

Chris Weigant — Mon, 03 May 2010 09:40:00 +0000

I'm starting to feel a little like Martin's character, I have to admit. Because President Barack Obama seems to have hit a plateau in his approval ratings, which have remained largely unchanged for the past three months now, and not significantly changed since last November. Could it be that we've all just made up our minds about the job the president is doing? Should I just end this with "next Obama Poll Watch column in three months...?"

Obama Poll Watch -- March, 2010

Chris Weigant — Fri, 02 Apr 2010 23:56:09 +0000

But Obama's approval numbers did manage to rise this month, which stops a nine-month slide downwards. He may have bottomed out, in other words. But this gain was modest indeed, only two-tenths of a percent, so it can't really be said that his numbers are improving much, at least not yet.

Obama Poll Watch -- February, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 22:54:11 +0000

When will Obama turn this around? Will Obama turn this around? Well, there is a little good news recently, and Obama's numbers have gotten a bounce from his health reform "summit," but as this was at the end of February, it doesn't show up yet in the monthly figures, and it remains to be seen whether he will sustain it or not throughout March. But we'll all have to wait until next month to see the outcome.

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 23:44:23 +0000

When taken as a whole, President Barack Obama's poll numbers last month moved the least amount of any month of his presidency so far. His approval rating continued its trend of moving downwards, but only by two-tenths of a percent. His disapproval rating continued upwards, but only by four-tenths of one percent. Meaning January was a pretty stable month for Obama.

Dec. '09 Obama Poll Watch -- Below Fifty, But Stabilizing

Chris Weigant — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 22:59:01 +0000

Now, I do realize that we're all getting sick of looking back at 2009, and although I really would much prefer to be writing about looking forward to 2010, we simply must provide a final glance rearwards before moving on to prognosticating the future. Because it is time once again for Obama Poll Watch -- our monthly look back at Obama's approval ratings for the previous month!

Obama Poll Watch [November 2009] -- Scraping Fifty Percent

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 23:49:59 +0000

But, by doing so, his approval numbers continued their gradual slide downwards this month. And, although not reflected in our once-a-month snapshot, the truly worrisome thing for the White House is that for the first time, Obama's numbers flirted with going below 50 percent. This isn't an enormous deal (as, for instance, going below 40 percent would be), but it is still a big red flag to politicians, because it means you don't have the job approval of over half of the public.

Obama Poll Watch [October 2009] -- Flattening Trends

Chris Weigant — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:24:27 +0000

Much like Sherlock Holmes' non-barking nocturnal canine, the remarkable thing about President Barack Obama's poll numbers last month was that nothing remarkable happened. Both trendlines were pretty flat for the month, which was the second month in a row of little movement. Things are not getting much better for Obama's approval rate, but then neither are they getting much worse.

Obama Poll Watch [September 2009] -- Obama Halts His Slide

Chris Weigant — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 21:54:23 +0000

I say this because Obama has stopped his slide in the polls. The downward slope of his approval numbers came to a screeching halt, and instead began hovering above (but never dipping below) the 50 percent mark. Since then, they have wavered in the 50-55 point range -- not trending clearly upwards, but at least not trending clearly downwards, either. Better news for Obama fans is the fact that his disapproval numbers did actually reverse course, after hitting a mid-month peak, and have settled downwards from that point on.

Obama Poll Watch [August 2009] -- Obama's Base Support Erodes

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 22:49:33 +0000

So, with the standard disclaimer aside, we can delve in to Obama's poll numbers for August. The news for Obama fans continues to be bad, unfortunately. There may be a faint glimmer of a spark of hope in the numbers -- but that's about all I can promise here, sorry about that. Obama's approval numbers continued their downward trend this month, and his disapproval numbers also increased. We'll go into these numbers in detail, up front.

Obama Poll Watch [July 2009] -- The Honeymoon's Over

Chris Weigant — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 22:06:54 +0000

It's the beginning of a new month, which means it is time again to take a look at President Obama's poll numbers. The news this month for Obama fans is not particularly good, as Obama has definitely ended his "honeymoon" period (which virtually all first-term presidents go through). The downward trend to his numbers was expected, but the increase in the curve downward is slightly worrisome at this point -- but not yet what I would call a cause for alarm.

Obama Poll Watch [June 2009] -- Obama v. Clinton (Second Term)

Chris Weigant — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 22:41:23 +0000

Obama's June poll numbers were down a bit. But not by much. If you had nothing but the inside-the-Beltway pundits to listen to (as opposed to actual data, that is), you might be pretty worried about Obama's standing in the polls right now. Dire warnings that "Obama's dropping in the polls" or "Obama's poll numbers are tanking" or even "Obama has lost the public" and other such tommyrot has been a common theme for a few weeks now.

Obama Poll Watch [May 2009] -- Obama v. Clinton (First Term)

Chris Weigant — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 22:42:58 +0000

As a new month dawns, it is time once again to take a look at President Barack Obama's poll numbers. We kicked off this column series last month, and will be returning at the beginning of every month throughout Obama's term as president to take a snapshot of his approval ratings in the polls. This month, as an added feature, we will also be looking at Obama's poll numbers as compared to Bill Clinton's poll numbers from his first term.

Obama Poll Watch

Chris Weigant — Mon, 04 May 2009 23:42:39 +0000

Welcome to the first installment in what will hopefully be a four-year (or eight, even) monthly series of articles examining President Barack Obama's job approval ratings with the public, as provided by America's pollsters. Each month we will take a snapshot of how Obama is doing, and track it for his entire term. [...]

A Surprise In Obama's Poll Numbers

Chris Weigant — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 23:28:05 +0000

It really is a bit early to focus on President Obama's approval ratings in the polls, I know. But, rather than looking at the overall picture of how he's doing, I have been noticing something interesting which I don't believe others have picked up on -- Obama's numbers dramatically improve depending on the sample used by the pollsters. When "likely voters" (LV) are polled, the numbers they give are different from when either "registered voters" (RV) or "all adults" (A) are polled. Obama's LV approval rating is about five points lower than the RV/A numbers. The difference is more pronounced in the disapproval ratings, where LV numbers are fully ten points higher than RV/A numbers.