ChrisWeigant.com » Obama Poll Watch

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2017

Chris Weigant — Sat, 21 Jan 2017 00:06:09 +0000

Obama's Final Honeymoon Ends Well America now has a new president, meaning (among other things) it is time to take one final look back at the presidency of Barack Obama. The chart is now complete on the public's opinion of how President Obama performed his duties, and his final "honeymoon" period not only continued during [...]

Obama Poll Watch -- December, 2016

Chris Weigant — Thu, 05 Jan 2017 03:58:00 +0000

Obama's third, or "lame-duck" honeymoon continued strong in December, putting Obama at the highest point in public opinion polls that he's seen during his entire second term in office. In other words, he's stronger now than he was when sworn in for the second time, four years ago. Obama set four second-term records this month, hitting a job approval high in both daily and monthly average poll ratings, while also charting new daily and monthly lows in job disapproval. Obama had a great December, which was the capstone on the best year he's ever had during his entire presidency. Let's take a look at the penultimate chart of Obama's presidency:

Obama Poll Watch -- November, 2016

Chris Weigant — Thu, 08 Dec 2016 01:06:18 +0000

President Obama is on track to end his second term in office with higher job approval than he began it, back in January of 2013. Call it the third (or lame-duck) honeymoon, if you will. Obama saw record job approval in November, measured both monthly and daily, and tied his daily low for job disapproval (previously set February 24, 2013). After a very strong October, Obama charted an even stronger November in public opinion polls. Let's take a look at the new chart for this month to see all of this.

Obama Poll Watch -- October, 2016

Chris Weigant — Fri, 04 Nov 2016 00:23:59 +0000

President Obama is having the best year of his entire presidency, in terms of job approval improvement. In the ten months of 2016 so far, Obama's monthly job approval average has risen eight times, and only decreased twice. His job approval number has improved so much that he's now at the second-highest point of his entire second term. The only month he was at a better point was January of 2013, when he was sworn in a second time. On top of this, his daily job approval average hit the highest point of his entire second term last month. All in all, it's looking like Obama will finish his time in office in a pretty comfortable place. After falling back a bit in September, Obama roared back in October. Let's take a look at his new chart for this month.

2016 Electoral Math -- Two Weeks Out, Clinton's Looking Good

Chris Weigant — Tue, 25 Oct 2016 01:49:05 +0000

Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had a mixed week in the polls. Some states strengthened for both candidates, and some states weakened. For the most part, though, the race remained essentially unchanged.

2016 Electoral Math -- Clinton Continues Her Rise

Chris Weigant — Tue, 11 Oct 2016 01:55:16 +0000

Even with that big caveat, Hillary Clinton had another good week in the polls. In fact, almost all the news was good news for Clinton and bad news for Donald Trump. Clinton continued to ride the wave from the first debate, and this week shows the public's reaction to Trump's tax returns being leaked, showing an almost-billion-dollar loss in a single year (so much for the "I'm a great businessman" thing...). Trump is defiant about not paying any federal income taxes for almost two decades, which certainly didn't help him any with public opinion.

Obama Poll Watch -- September, 2016

Chris Weigant — Fri, 07 Oct 2016 00:02:22 +0000

After August's spectacular improvement in job approval polling, Barack Obama saw his numbers fall in September -- what the stock market might call a "correction." Obama had the best August he's ever had in terms of improving his poll numbers, but it seems now that the whole month was the high end of a slow, two-month cycle which might indicate he's hitting a plateau. That's all a very polite way of saying Obama's numbers went down in September, although not as much as they had risen in August. Let's take a look at his new chart.

Obama Poll Watch -- August, 2016

Chris Weigant — Thu, 01 Sep 2016 22:40:44 +0000

President Barack Obama's job approval polling numbers went sharply up in August, after falling slightly in July for the first time this year. Obama has now seen gains in seven of the eight months of 2016, and August was the third-biggest of these jumps. Obama's job approval is now higher than every other month in his second term except the first one (January, 2013), putting his legacy in pretty good position with the public. The bounce upward can clearly be seen even in the large-scale chart.

Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2016

Chris Weigant — Thu, 04 Aug 2016 23:56:13 +0000

Last month, President Obama's longest winning streak in job approval polling ended. For the first six months of 2016, Obama improved his monthly average job approval number each and every month. That's a longer streak than he's ever managed, to put it into perspective. His job approval rose a whopping 6.5 points during this period, while his average monthly job disapproval number fell 5.4 points. In July, however, both numbers experienced a mild correction, ending this notable streak.

Obama Poll Watch -- June, 2016

Chris Weigant — Wed, 06 Jul 2016 00:04:34 +0000

President Obama's job approval among the public hit a big milestone last month, as he wound up with a monthly average of exactly 50 percent. Half the public approves of the job he's doing, to put this another way. This was a rather dramatic improvement over Obama's rather flat May numbers. Let's take a look at the new chart, where his improvement is pretty easy to see.

Obama Poll Watch -- May, 2016

Chris Weigant — Thu, 02 Jun 2016 23:14:16 +0000

Barack Obama's job approval polling in May stayed remarkably stable. His job approval rating improved slightly, and his job disapproval rating very slightly got worse. In other words, he stayed almost exactly where he was in April. Though boring (nothing is more boring on a graph than a flat line), this was important because it reinforced and solidified the large gains Obama made since the start of the year. His improvement was no blip, in other words. Take a look at the new chart to see this.

Obama Poll Watch -- April, 2016

Chris Weigant — Fri, 06 May 2016 00:26:00 +0000

As I predicted last month, President Barack Obama consolidated his recent gains in public opinion polling in April, and only showed very slight improvement in his job approval and job disapproval numbers. While this doesn't sound very exciting, it does show that Obama's recent gains were not temporary, but instead show some real staying power. Let's take a look at the new chart.

Obama Poll Watch -- March, 2016

Chris Weigant — Tue, 05 Apr 2016 00:31:19 +0000

President Obama made a big breakthrough in public opinion polling in March, one that is (for once) pretty obvious in his chart. For the first time since May, 2013, Obama's average job approval number for last month was higher than his average disapproval. Take a look at this month's new chart -- it's pretty easy to see how big a deal this is, even on the overall chart of his entire time in office.

Obama Above Water Once Again

Chris Weigant — Thu, 10 Mar 2016 00:45:46 +0000

There is a lot going on in the political world to talk about today, but in the background of the raging presidential campaign President Barack Obama hit a second-term milestone today. His job approval polling average is now once again "above water" -- defined as more people who approve of the job he's doing than disapprove. This might not sound all that momentous, but it is actually the first time in almost three years that it has happened. Obama's public job approval has been on a major upswing this year, which (if it continues) might significantly boost the chances of the Democratic nominee winning in November. So while Obama's poll rise hasn't been a topic for conversation in the presidential race so far, it could prove decisive later on.

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2016

Chris Weigant — Thu, 04 Feb 2016 00:10:32 +0000

President Obama just had a very good month in the polls. Not spectacular, mind you, but still better than any month since January of 2015. Essentially, Obama regained the job approval polling ground he lost over the previous two or three months, and he is now positioned to continue improving in February as well. For the first time in a year, this movement is so noticeable it is easily visible on the big chart.

Obama Poll Watch -- December, 2015

Chris Weigant — Fri, 08 Jan 2016 01:19:31 +0000

After a fairly consistent (if not great) run in the polls for the first ten months of 2015, President Barack Obama finished the year on a decidedly downward slope. While the gains he made at the start of the year haven't completely eroded back to where he spent most of 2014, if Obama doesn't reverse the trend soon he could be looking at similar numbers within the next few months. This trend is clearly visible in the new chart for December.

Obama Poll Watch -- November, 2015

Chris Weigant — Fri, 04 Dec 2015 01:15:19 +0000

President Barack Obama's job approval rating took a dip downwards in November, to hit a new low point for the entire calendar year. Most of this was due to the panicky reaction the political world had to the Paris terrorist attack. President Obama's reaction to the attacks was fairly muted, spread out over an overseas trip which was followed up by a terse statement (rather than, say, a prime-time Oval Office speech) to America on his strategy for fighting terrorism and the Islamic State.

Obama Poll Watch -- October, 2015

Chris Weigant — Fri, 06 Nov 2015 00:36:23 +0000

Barack Obama has had not only his most stable year of job approval polling, but quite likely the most stable year ever recorded for any president (since scientific public opinion polling began). Now, this doesn't mean Obama's been charting extraordinarily good numbers (he is roughly 13 points lower than President Bill Clinton was, at this point in his second term), nor extraordinarily bad numbers (Obama is also polling 13 points above where George W. Bush was, at this point) -- but Obama's numbers have indeed been extraordinarily stable. Both his job approval monthly average and his job disapproval monthly average have kept within a range of around one percent, all year long.

Obama Poll Watch -- September, 2015

Chris Weigant — Tue, 06 Oct 2015 23:29:12 +0000

President Barack Obama had a pretty good month in the polls last month, as he saw his approval take a big step up and his disapproval take a tiny step down. Obama exited the summer doldrums earlier than usual this year, and chalked up a positive month all around. Let's take a look at the new chart.

Obama Poll Watch -- August, 2015

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 Sep 2015 00:24:10 +0000

President Barack Obama just had another bad August in the polls. This doesn't come as any real surprise, as summer seems to be the worst time of year for him throughout his term in office. Last month Obama posted the first positive July he ever has, but this month he reverted to form and slipped significantly in his job approval polling. Let's take a look at the new chart.

Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2015

Chris Weigant — Wed, 05 Aug 2015 00:02:17 +0000

Barack Obama doesn't usually have very good summers, as measured by his public opinion job approval numbers. Last month, he finally broke this curse and posted some solid gains -- the first time he's ever done so in July. The daily polling was a bit of a rollercoaster, though, so he could just as easily go back down in August, but let's focus on the good news for Obama fans first. Take a look at the new chart, for starters.

Obama Poll Watch -- June, 2015

Chris Weigant — Wed, 01 Jul 2015 23:43:43 +0000

June was a busy month for President Obama's job approval ratings. Lots of things were happening during the month, good and bad, and Obama's approval rating swung through an initial steep decline, but then at the end of the month experienced a spectacular recovery. What July will bring is anyone's guess, in other words. Obama wound up down for the month when the monthly averages were calculated, but they could very easily go right back up again in July. Here's our updated chart.

Obama Poll Watch -- May, 2015

Chris Weigant — Fri, 05 Jun 2015 00:58:00 +0000

This is going to be a rather abbreviated column, because President Obama's job approval poll numbers didn't change much either way in May. Not only were the changes minimal, it also flattened the trendlines out all the way back to February. Let's take a quick look at the chart to see what I'm talking about:

Obama Poll Watch -- April, 2015

Chris Weigant — Tue, 05 May 2015 23:11:52 +0000

After a somewhat disappointing March in public opinion polling, President Obama has regained ground in April. His monthly average job approval was up, and his job disapproval numbers went down even more. All around, it was a pretty good month, but to put it in perspective he's really just roughly gotten back to where his numbers were in February. Let's take a quick look at the new chart.

Obama Poll Watch -- March, 2015

Chris Weigant — Thu, 02 Apr 2015 22:44:05 +0000

Barack Obama's job approval poll numbers slipped a bit in March, ending a streak of good news in polling for the president which reaches back to last September. But while the numbers turned slightly negative, the overall outlook for Obama was looking up by the end of the month. This means Obama has a better than even chance of gaining ground again in April. But before we get to predicting the future, let's first take a look at the chart of the recent past.

Obama Poll Watch -- February, 2015

Chris Weigant — Wed, 04 Mar 2015 00:28:33 +0000

After an impressive showing in January, President Barack Obama's job approval ratings in February continued to climb, but at a slower rate. Obama seems to have topped off for now, in other words. Overall, the month averaged better than January, but Obama's numbers softened noticeably at the end of the month, and could turn flat or even slightly downward in March.

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2015

Chris Weigant — Tue, 03 Feb 2015 01:16:44 +0000

President Obama just finished a very good month in public opinion polling. Obama showed such notable improvement in January that it's tough to choose which metric he did best in. In improvement over the previous month, Obama just had the best month of his second term (so far). His January improvement was the fourth-best of his entire presidency. He hit numbers he hasn't seen since the summer of 2013 -- gaining back all the ground lost (and more) since the disastrous rollout of the Obamacare website. NBC's Chuck Todd, during coverage of Obama's State Of The Union speech, came up with the best metaphor for what has been happening since the midterm elections last year: Obama stole the GOP's "honeymoon." After a big Republican political victory, Obama has been increasingly bold. As a result, Obama got the bump in polling, instead of the Republicans. January was indeed a very good month for President Obama.

Obama Poll Watch -- December, 2014

Chris Weigant — Sat, 03 Jan 2015 00:31:55 +0000

Barack Obama's job approval polling numbers, at times, seem to follow seasonal trends. He usually loses ground in the summer, particularly in August. In winter, however, he usually gains ground. This year Obama seems likely to repeat this pattern, if December's numbers are any indication.

Obama Poll Watch -- November, 2014

Chris Weigant — Tue, 02 Dec 2014 00:47:13 +0000

Added together, the differences from October to November for Obama's average monthly job approval and job disapproval ratings total a whopping 0.1 percent. That's pretty flat. Remarkably, this was during a month with several enormous political stories, from the midterm election results to immigration reform to Ferguson, Missouri. Before we get to all of that, let's take a look at the flatness of the chart for November.

Obama Poll Watch -- October, 2014

Chris Weigant — Fri, 07 Nov 2014 00:44:05 +0000

This may come as a surprise to some, especially after Tuesday's election results, but President Obama actually had a rather good October in his job approval polling.

Obama Poll Watch -- September, 2014

Chris Weigant — Tue, 07 Oct 2014 00:00:58 +0000

President Obama announced a new American war this month, but it didn't resonate in his polling much, if at all. Overall, his poll numbers dropped, but the net result was rather flat. But the (so far) very slow nature of this new war may lead to Obama's numbers ticking up in the future. To put this slightly differently, Obama's poll numbers may very well reflect the direction of the war for the next few months (although the midterm election will also have a big influence). But before we look to the future, though, let's start with the new chart showing September's numbers.

Obama Poll Watch -- August, 2014

Chris Weigant — Thu, 11 Sep 2014 23:04:18 +0000

OK, with that out of the way, let's take a look at how President Obama did in job approval polling last month. The results were mixed, but overall fairly positive. Here's the new chart:

Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2014

Chris Weigant — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 22:42:32 +0000

President Obama had another bad month in the polls in July, although it wasn't as sharp a downturn as he experienced in June. That, and "he managed not to set any all-time or daily low points during the month" is about all that can be positively said. Without further ado, let's get to the new chart:

Obama Poll Watch -- June, 2014

Chris Weigant — Tue, 01 Jul 2014 23:06:21 +0000

President Barack Obama's poll numbers took a serious downturn in June, which essentially wiped out the progress he's made in the public's opinion since the beginning of the year. There's no real way to sugarcoat it: Obama had a bad month last month. About the only positive thing that can be said is that it wasn't his worst month ever -- but that's not really saying much, is it?

Obama Poll Watch -- May, 2014

Chris Weigant — Mon, 02 Jun 2014 22:55:37 +0000

President Obama's job approval ratings continued to improve, slowly, in the month of May. In five out of the last six months, in fact, Obama's numbers have gotten better. He is now roughly where he was right before the impact of the Obamacare website rollout hit his approval rating. This is still not fantastic territory for any president's approval rating to be in, but it does represent a steady increase as Obama has won back people he lost in the Obamacare website disaster. However, this trend may now be flattening out, meaning June's numbers may not be as positive. But we're getting ahead of ourselves. Let's start with a look at last month's chart:

Obama Poll Watch -- April, 2014

Chris Weigant — Mon, 05 May 2014 23:04:35 +0000

After suffering a negative month in the polls in March, President Obama bounced back in April, gaining back all the ground he had lost and then some (well, "and then a little bit more" would be more accurate...). He still hasn't quite made it back to where his poll numbers were before the Obamacare website rollout, but if the trendlines continue in May, he is at least within reach of this goal for the first time since last October. Let's take a look at the updated chart, shall we?

Obama Poll Watch -- March, 2014

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 Apr 2014 23:44:47 +0000

President Obama's job approval polling was down a bit last month, ending three months of positive news. He didn't slip back much, but the reversal does bring up a serious question: is Obama stuck in a "new normal" of job approval numbers in the low-40s range? We'll take a look at possible answers to this in a moment, but first let's take a look at the new monthly chart.

Obama Poll Watch -- February, 2014

Chris Weigant — Thu, 06 Mar 2014 00:20:17 +0000

For the second month in a row, President Obama had an all-around positive month in the public polls. His job approval average was up, his job disapproval was down, and he has almost completely recovered from the dip his numbers took after the Obamacare website rollout fiasco. This is clear when you take a look at the chart for February:

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2014

Chris Weigant — Mon, 03 Feb 2014 23:23:15 +0000

President Obama just had -- relatively -- the best month in job approval polling he's had for his entire second term. The reason for the qualifier in that previous sentence is that in absolute terms, Obama's poll numbers are still pretty bad, but when measured by month-to-month change, January was the best month Obama's had since the afterglow of his re-election. But then a picture is clearer than all these words, so let's take a look at the chart:

Obama Poll Watch -- December, 2013

Chris Weigant — Tue, 07 Jan 2014 01:55:25 +0000

President Obama had a pretty significant month in the polls, which might come as a surprise if all you've been listening to is the conventional wisdom in Washington (which has been happily parroting "Obama's polling is in free-fall!" all month long). In fact, what happened this month was that Obama stopped sliding downwards in the polls, and began actually recovering a bit of the ground he's lost since the disastrous Obamacare website launch at the beginning of October. What's more, Obama looks pretty good to continue this recovery for at least the next month or two. Which, as I said, might just come as a surprise to some.

Obama Poll Watch -- November, 2013

Chris Weigant — Wed, 04 Dec 2013 00:23:08 +0000

November was either a very bad month for President Obama in job approval polling, or his worst month ever. Take your choice.

Obama Poll Watch -- October, 2013

Chris Weigant — Tue, 05 Nov 2013 23:54:11 +0000

While Obama hit an all-time low in one recent poll which made a few headlines this week, he's actually not had that bad a month, relatively. In fact, his monthly average job approval number rose for only the second time in his second term. Obama had good news and bad news battling it out this month, and his polling reflected this tension. But the news for Obama in October was a lot better than you might think.

Obama Poll Watch -- September, 2013

Chris Weigant — Tue, 01 Oct 2013 23:10:27 +0000

Obviously, there are other things happening today in the world of politics, but instead of commenting upon them, we're going to stick to the schedule and instead offer up an abbreviated Obama Poll Watch column. It'll be somewhat shorter this month, due to the results having been accurately predicted in last month's column, and due to the fact that the situation on the ground in Washington is changing fast -- not weekly or daily, but hourly. Until we see how this week plays out, it's really anyone's guess how it'll affect the polling.

Obama Poll Watch -- August, 2013

Chris Weigant — Thu, 05 Sep 2013 23:00:17 +0000

For President Obama, August is the cruelest month. Every year, without fail, Obama slumps in the polls in the dog days of summer. This year was no different. That's the bad news, for Obama fans. The worse news is that there isn't a whole lot on the immediate horizon which could give Obama any sort of bump upwards in his polling numbers. But before we get to the future, let's take a look at the past month.

Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2013

Chris Weigant — Mon, 05 Aug 2013 23:11:34 +0000

President Barack Obama's job approval polling numbers continued a rather dramatic slide in July, resulting in the lowest public approval yet of his second term. He hasn't quite hit the low point of his first term, but he is getting dangerously close. Whether he can turn this trend around in August remains to be seen, but he's certainly got his work cut out for him. A quick look at this month's chart shows the size of the problem Obama's going to have to overcome, to do so.

Obama Poll Watch -- June, 2013

Chris Weigant — Tue, 02 Jul 2013 23:13:08 +0000

Welcome back to our monthly review of President Obama's job approval polling numbers. This is going to be an abbreviated version of our normal column, because it got squeezed out of the Monday slot by the 150th anniversary of the Battle of Gettysburg, so apologies for this month's brevity in advance. June wasn't a particularly good month for Obama's numbers -- in fact it was a fairly bad month for him, as his numbers went "underwater" for the first time in his second term. Let's take a look at this month's chart:

Obama Poll Watch -- May, 2013

Chris Weigant — Tue, 04 Jun 2013 00:22:07 +0000

Barack Obama had a pretty bad month inside the Beltway, with Republicans on the warpath over multiple scandals. Outside Washington, Obama didn't have too bad a month at all, as his job approval ratings barely budged. While this calm may seem to indicate that the public has a much higher tolerance for what constitutes a "scandal" than congressional Republicans, there were indications at the end of the month that this may just be a calm before much stormier poll numbers for the president. But first, let's look back on last month. Here's the chart:

Obama Poll Watch -- April, 2013

Chris Weigant — Mon, 06 May 2013 22:00:22 +0000

Welcome back once again to our monthly examination of President Barack Obama's job approval polling numbers. In April, Obama's numbers returned to a normal level, after experiencing a very short post-election "honeymoon period" with the public which bounced his numbers up to a peak, and then bounced them right back down again. You can plainly see this effect in this month's chart:

Obama Poll Watch -- March, 2013

Chris Weigant — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 23:13:14 +0000

OK, with that out of the way, let's have a look at March's polling. President Obama lost almost all the ground he had gained late in the 2012 election season, and his numbers fell back to where he was roughly six months ago. This isn't as bad as some media have made it out to be, since it may represent Obama's true natural level of support. But we're getting ahead of ourselves, let's take a look at this month's chart:

Obama Poll Watch -- February, 2013

Chris Weigant — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 00:35:30 +0000

Obama's approval ratings saw a sharp drop last month. The sharpest drop, in fact, since the summer of 2011, right before the campaign started getting underway. His average monthly approval fell from 52.7 percent down to 51.1 percent, a total drop of 1.6 percentage points. This followed a 0.4 percent drop in January, for a full two-point drop in the past two months.

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2013

Chris Weigant — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 23:23:43 +0000

President Obama ended up his first term by consolidating the job approval polling gains he made in his re-election. His numbers have settled into a new range, and were remarkably steady all month long. Obama's "second honeymoon" period with the public may not last more than a few months, but for now seems to be holding steady. With the election fading into the past, Obama's in a pretty good position right now in terms of "political capital," but this will likely change as legislative reality sets in.

Obama Poll Watch -- December, 2012

Chris Weigant — Thu, 03 Jan 2013 00:17:35 +0000

A happy chart indeed for Obama fans. Last month I predicted this rise by noting that many of the nationwide polling operations just ceased polling after the election was over. This dearth of data meant that while Obama's numbers were climbing fast, the "poll of polls" average at RealClearPolitics.com was dragged downwards by pre-election numbers still being averaged in. While I did predict that Obama's numbers would continue to rise in December (as more and more data came in), I will admit that even I was surprised at size of the post-election bump which Obama managed.

Obama Poll Watch -- November, 2012

Chris Weigant — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 23:28:05 +0000

All in all, a pretty triumphant month for the president, no matter how you look at it.

Final Electoral Math -- My 2012 Election Picks

Chris Weigant — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 23:18:22 +0000

Welcome to the last of these Electoral Math columns, at least for the next three and a half years. Today, we're just going to throw caution to the wind, and go ahead and predict the outcome of tomorrow night's returns. Before we get to that, though, a quick rundown of my previous record in the election prediction business, and then (for completeness' sake) the final electoral math graphs for 2012.

Obama Poll Watch -- October, 2012

Chris Weigant — Thu, 01 Nov 2012 23:54:07 +0000

October was debate month, and -- surprise! -- it didn't affect his job approval numbers much, if at all. In either direction, really. Obama's job approval rating hardly fluctuated at all throughout all three debates, continuing his trend upward but at a more modest rate.

2012 Electoral Math -- One Week Out

Chris Weigant — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 23:31:33 +0000

Are you worried that Frankenstorm will restrict your access to up-to-date polling numbers? Do you know more about the state of the race in places you’ve never been to, but haven’t decided what to do for Hallowe’en yet? Then you have come to the right place! With one week to go before Election Day dawns, the race for president is about as tight as it can get, so let's get right to it.

2012 Electoral Math -- The Race Tightens

Chris Weigant — Tue, 23 Oct 2012 23:38:41 +0000

As you can see, the race has tightened considerably since the first debate. There were more states tied during this last week than we've seen in a while, which shows up in white on the above chart. Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire were all tied at one point during the period, although at the end Virginia was the only one left even.

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama's Debate Cliff

Chris Weigant — Tue, 16 Oct 2012 01:41:15 +0000

Welcome back to our now-weekly Electoral Math column series. In the introduction to last week's column, I warned that the full effects of the first televised presidential debate had yet to fully appear. This week, the effects showed up in a big way -- which (as you can probably guess) was mostly good news for Mitt Romney and bad news for Barack Obama, as some of his numbers fell off a rather large cliff.

2012 Electoral Math -- Debate Effects Remain To Be Seen

Chris Weigant — Mon, 08 Oct 2012 23:47:06 +0000

Among Barack Obama supporters, panic seems to be setting in after his first debate performance was roundly panned. National polls have pulled back into a neck-and-neck contest. This is all fun for the pundits, who (pre-debate) were on the verge of declaring the race all but over (and, hence, boring), but we hasten to remind everyone that this is not how we elect presidents. The national popular vote is meaningless -- just ask Al Gore. Presidential elections are won and lost state by state, which is how this column series examines things.

Obama Poll Watch -- September, 2012

Chris Weigant — Tue, 02 Oct 2012 23:54:29 +0000

Shockingly, after a half a year of virtually no news whatsoever, last month was actually newsworthy in the world of presidential job approval polling. Barack Obama had a good month, and hit a noteworthy milestone in the percent of Americans who approve of the job he's doing.

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama Solidifies Bounce

Chris Weigant — Thu, 27 Sep 2012 00:21:28 +0000

While the overall split between the candidates hasn't changed a whole lot since last time, the dynamics of the race underlying the overall numbers has indeed shifted for both candidates. The news was slightly better for each candidate in some regards, and slightly worse in others. All around, Barack Obama is holding onto and improving on his post-convention bounce, and Mitt Romney continues to struggle to make any ground, while slightly strengthening his base.

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama's Bounce

Chris Weigant — Mon, 17 Sep 2012 22:05:00 +0000

The last time we took a look at the electoral math was just before convention season was about to get underway. Since it's now been over a week since the end of the Democratic National Convention, the effects of both parties' conventions are beginning to show up in the state-level polling. The news for the Obama team is good, almost across the board, as Romney showed little or no "bounce" from his convention, while Obama gained a significant bump after the Democrats' big party.

Obama Poll Watch -- August, 2012

Chris Weigant — Mon, 03 Sep 2012 00:17:56 +0000

Obama's average monthly job approval rating gained 0.6 percent this month, to finish up at 47.8 percent. His job disapproval rating slightly ticked up 0.2 points, to close at 48.3 percent. This leaves Obama a half a point underwater in the polls -- better than last month's 0.9 percent down.

2012 Electoral Math -- Pre-Convention Baseline

Chris Weigant — Wed, 22 Aug 2012 23:13:23 +0000

As we approach the "convention season" in the race for the presidency, it behooves us to take another look at how the electoral math currently stands. Mitt Romney chose to announce his running mate rather early, which is just beginning to be reflected in the polling. But, starting next week, each party will likely get a noticeable "convention bump" in the polls. Because the two conventions are happening right after one another, this should stir the big data pot well into September. Which is why now is a good time to look at the state of the race, to establish a baseline to measure all this expected frenzied movement.

Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2012

Chris Weigant — Thu, 02 Aug 2012 22:59:40 +0000

Barack Obama's worst time of year is the dog days of summer, and this year is proving no different. He had the worst month, overall, since last August, as his approval rate fell 0.6 percent to end the month at 47.2 percent average approval. His disapproval rate rose 0.3 percent, to end the month at 48.1 percent. This put Obama almost a full point "underwater" -- for the first time since January.

Obama Poll Watch -- June, 2012

Chris Weigant — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 23:27:03 +0000

With that out of the way, let's take a look at how Barack Obama is doing in the job approval category. For the first time ever, we have an exact tie, at 47.8 percent. Here's the chart:

2012 Electoral Math

Chris Weigant — Tue, 26 Jun 2012 00:11:57 +0000

It's time once again to begin seriously taking a look at the electoral math for the upcoming election. I know, I know, everyone else is court-watching this week, but instead I decided to spend some time poll-watching, for those of you who may be getting tired of endless Supreme Court speculation and analysis.

Obama Poll Watch -- May, 2012

Chris Weigant — Mon, 04 Jun 2012 19:54:19 +0000

May was not all that exceptional a month for Barack Obama, poll-wise. Both approval and disapproval rates were up slightly, but not significantly. It is a bit odd to have both numbers increase within the same month, but this is mostly due to the fact that the numbers themselves are so close to being even (statistically, this does odd things right around the point where they perfectly balance).

Obama Poll Watch -- April, 2012

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 May 2012 22:04:52 +0000

President Barack Obama had another uneventful month in the polls last month. I realize that's a pretty dull way to start a column, but we do the best with the data we are given, so to speak. Obama's average approval rate and disapproval rate both got better by the slimmest of margins -- one-tenth of a point -- which places him pretty much where he ended the past two months. His approval rating stayed above his disapproval rating, but by a margin of less than a full percentage point.

Obama Poll Watch -- March, 2012

Chris Weigant — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 22:30:16 +0000

President Obama had a fairly flat month of March in the polls. His approval rating slipped back a half a point, and his disapproval rating stayed unchanged from last month. While his approval stayed above his disapproval for the month, the gap between the two is smaller than it's ever been. All month long he teetered back and forth in terms of being "above water" but showed signs of at least stabilizing by month's end. This brought an end to five straight months of good news in the polls for the president, the longest streak he's ever managed to post.

Obama Poll Watch -- February, 2012

Chris Weigant — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 22:44:24 +0000

President Barack Obama's job approval numbers are back "above water" (where his approval rate is higher than his disapproval number), continuing an impressive rise in the polls which began in November of last year. This is the longest run of improved public job approval Obama has managed since he got elected. Obama posted a gain of almost two full percentage points in his approval rate in February, the third-best month he's ever had in this respect (and one of the two months he posted bigger gains in was the bounce he got from Osama Bin Laden's death). He wound up the month with his approval rating a full percent better than his disapproval rating, the best numbers he's seen since last June. But this trend could be flattening out, as he ended the month of February by slipping back a bit. So in the midst of plenty of good news on the polling front for Obama, there is reason for caution as well. Call it the dark lining to a very silver cloud, if you will.

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2012

Chris Weigant — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 22:34:18 +0000

President Barack Obama continued a three-month upward swing in the polls in January, with his average job approval rating for the month ticking up 1.2 points, and his disapproval rate falling by exactly the same amount.

Obama Poll Watch -- December, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 23:07:32 +0000

President Obama had a pretty good month last month in the job approval polls, bettering his standing in both approval and disapproval by roughly three-fourths of percentage point. This may not sound like that big a deal, but it was the second straight month of solid gains for the president in both categories.

Obama Poll Watch -- November, 2011

Chris Weigant — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 22:34:27 +0000

This month Obama poll watchers got some good news, and some bad news. This was capped off, at the end of the month, by the Washington punditocracy making an incredibly stupid comparison between polling for Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter -- which we will address at the end of the column (complete with a "guess the president" graph quiz, for your amusement).

Obama Poll Watch -- October, 2011

Chris Weigant — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 22:06:08 +0000

Barack Obama's job approval poll numbers in October were flat. Very flat. So flat, in fact, that he tied his own "flattest month ever" record, which he initially set back in November of last year. Obama's change in approval and disapproval combined last month totaled only a single tenth of a percent -- which is almost as flat as numerically possible.

Obama Poll Watch -- September, 2011

Chris Weigant — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 22:49:34 +0000

Barack Obama's poll numbers in September were not good. In fact, they were pretty bad. Obama fans looking for good news will have to be content with the fact that at least Obama seems to be slowing the trend of his dropping numbers somewhat. This isn't exactly a turnaround for him, but September was a lot less of a drastic change than the three months which preceded it.

Obama Poll Watch -- August, 2011

Chris Weigant — Mon, 05 Sep 2011 23:19:20 +0000

For President Obama, August is indeed the cruelest month.

Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 00:17:39 +0000

The easy answer to the question: "Who 'won' the debt ceiling debate?" is: nobody. The public sees everyone involved in a more negative light than when the whole manufactured crisis began. Hopefully, politicians will take note of this, but it is quite likely they will not, and this new standard of brinksmanship will become the norm, every time the debt ceiling debate arises. There's a comforting thought, after the past month, eh?

Obama Poll Watch -- June, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 20:21:31 +0000

As many were predicting, President Obama's bounce in approval polls due to the death of Osama Bin Laden did not last very long. While Obama started the month still strongly riding the wave of public approval from the Bin Laden raid, this had mostly dissipated by the second week in June, and Obama's poll numbers flattened out after that. The plateau he hit at this point is slightly higher than he had before the "OBL bump," but that's about the only consolation for Obama fans in the June numbers.

Obama Poll Watch -- May, 2011

Chris Weigant — Fri, 27 May 2011 06:04:25 +0000

This month was the best month President Barack Obama has ever had in the polls, when measured as change over the previous month. If you count it one way (measured by absolute values) Obama's best month was technically the second month into his term -- when he was still enjoying his "honeymoon" period, and had 63.4 percent support from the public. But in terms of actually changing public opinion, May was indeed the best month Obama's had, by far.

Obama Poll Watch -- April, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 04 May 2011 22:29:32 +0000

The death of Osama Bin Laden on the second day of this month has overshadowed Obama's poll numbers from last month already. Obama's poll numbers in May are going to be a lot more interesting (to put it mildly) than his poll numbers from April are going to be. I realize all of this, but I still (for completeness' sake) feel obligated to put out this monthly report of where Obama stood last month with the public.

Obama Poll Watch -- March, 2011

Chris Weigant — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 22:06:53 +0000

President Obama's poll numbers slipped back a bit in March, bringing an end to his recent "bump." This was Obama's first bad month in a while, ending the positive trends Obama had set for the past two months in approval rating, and for the past five months in disapproval rating. In March, Obama lost all the ground he had gained in February, but still finished the month up from where he started the year. In a statistical twist, Obama's approval and disapproval numbers for March, 2011 exactly matched his numbers for March, 2010.

Obama Poll Watch -- February, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 21:17:33 +0000

In January, President Obama had the biggest improvement in his public approval rating of his entire presidency. In February, Obama consolidated and built on his January "bump," by posting his second-most-improved month ever. This turnaround has set the clock back for Obama over a full year (in terms of his overall polling numbers), to roughly where he was in December, 2009. All in all, not a bad month for the president.

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 05:48:41 +0000

Obama poll-watchers have been waiting to see a "bump" upward in public opinion job approval ratings pretty much ever since he took office. In two years, there really hasn't been one. Until now.

Obama Poll Watch -- December, 2010

Chris Weigant — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 11:58:38 +0000

President Barack Obama had a mildly good month in the polls during December. Not a fantastic month, mind you; maybe not even a great month... but a mildly good month, nonetheless.

Obama Poll Watch -- November, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 22:50:57 +0000

President Obama just had his most stable month ever in the public opinion polls. This month also caps off a truly remarkable year of polling stability for Obama.

Obama Poll Watch -- October, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 20:44:20 +0000

Obama got a mixed bag of candy and rocks this Hallowe'en, at the close of October. Feel free to make your own comparisons to the mixed election results, but we're talking here about the month leading up to the elections. Obama was out on the campaign trail in a big way, and his numbers were both up and down as a result. Let's take a look at the chart:

Obama Poll Watch -- September, 2010

Chris Weigant — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 20:34:02 +0000

President Obama got a bit of a bounce in his monthly poll average in September, but the news is of a decidedly mixed variety. There is good news and bad in the numbers from last month for Obama, and it's looking like there won't be much of a pre-election change in his numbers which could help congressional Democrats out on the midterm campaign trail.

Obama Poll Watch -- August, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 20:25:22 +0000

Augusts, to be frank, are not President Obama's friend. The past month was no different, at least as measured by public opinion polling. Obama was on a downswing heading into the month, and his numbers reflect this in a stark way. In other words, it was a bad month for Obama.

Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 21:32:07 +0000

President Barack Obama has reached the first crossover point of his presidency, where his job approval numbers with the public are lower than his disapproval numbers. This is not exactly good news for Obama fans, especially heading into a midterm election.

Obama Poll Watch -- June, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 22:29:52 +0000

Obama, after gaining a bit in his average approval ratings in May, slipped back in June. But the reversal was slight, continuing a five-month streak of amazingly stable numbers. Since February, Obama's approval rating has stayed within one half of one percentage point, which is pretty remarkable. Unfortunately, this trend may be at an end, and his numbers may be headed even further downwards in July.

Obama Poll Watch -- May, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 08:27:04 +0000

While I would immediately caution everyone not to get overly optimistic about what I'm about to say, President Obama's approval rating was looking up in April. Gains were modest, but were pretty much across the board. Although, as I said, the end of the month saw a slight reversal to this trend, likely the result of the drip, drip, drip nature (or, more properly, "gush, gush, gush") of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Obama Poll Watch -- April, 2010

Chris Weigant — Mon, 03 May 2010 09:40:00 +0000

I'm starting to feel a little like Martin's character, I have to admit. Because President Barack Obama seems to have hit a plateau in his approval ratings, which have remained largely unchanged for the past three months now, and not significantly changed since last November. Could it be that we've all just made up our minds about the job the president is doing? Should I just end this with "next Obama Poll Watch column in three months...?"

Obama Poll Watch -- March, 2010

Chris Weigant — Fri, 02 Apr 2010 23:56:09 +0000

But Obama's approval numbers did manage to rise this month, which stops a nine-month slide downwards. He may have bottomed out, in other words. But this gain was modest indeed, only two-tenths of a percent, so it can't really be said that his numbers are improving much, at least not yet.

Obama Poll Watch -- February, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 22:54:11 +0000

When will Obama turn this around? Will Obama turn this around? Well, there is a little good news recently, and Obama's numbers have gotten a bounce from his health reform "summit," but as this was at the end of February, it doesn't show up yet in the monthly figures, and it remains to be seen whether he will sustain it or not throughout March. But we'll all have to wait until next month to see the outcome.

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2010

Chris Weigant — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 23:44:23 +0000

When taken as a whole, President Barack Obama's poll numbers last month moved the least amount of any month of his presidency so far. His approval rating continued its trend of moving downwards, but only by two-tenths of a percent. His disapproval rating continued upwards, but only by four-tenths of one percent. Meaning January was a pretty stable month for Obama.

Dec. '09 Obama Poll Watch -- Below Fifty, But Stabilizing

Chris Weigant — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 22:59:01 +0000

Now, I do realize that we're all getting sick of looking back at 2009, and although I really would much prefer to be writing about looking forward to 2010, we simply must provide a final glance rearwards before moving on to prognosticating the future. Because it is time once again for Obama Poll Watch -- our monthly look back at Obama's approval ratings for the previous month!

Obama Poll Watch [November 2009] -- Scraping Fifty Percent

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 23:49:59 +0000

But, by doing so, his approval numbers continued their gradual slide downwards this month. And, although not reflected in our once-a-month snapshot, the truly worrisome thing for the White House is that for the first time, Obama's numbers flirted with going below 50 percent. This isn't an enormous deal (as, for instance, going below 40 percent would be), but it is still a big red flag to politicians, because it means you don't have the job approval of over half of the public.

Obama Poll Watch [October 2009] -- Flattening Trends

Chris Weigant — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:24:27 +0000

Much like Sherlock Holmes' non-barking nocturnal canine, the remarkable thing about President Barack Obama's poll numbers last month was that nothing remarkable happened. Both trendlines were pretty flat for the month, which was the second month in a row of little movement. Things are not getting much better for Obama's approval rate, but then neither are they getting much worse.

Obama Poll Watch [September 2009] -- Obama Halts His Slide

Chris Weigant — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 21:54:23 +0000

I say this because Obama has stopped his slide in the polls. The downward slope of his approval numbers came to a screeching halt, and instead began hovering above (but never dipping below) the 50 percent mark. Since then, they have wavered in the 50-55 point range -- not trending clearly upwards, but at least not trending clearly downwards, either. Better news for Obama fans is the fact that his disapproval numbers did actually reverse course, after hitting a mid-month peak, and have settled downwards from that point on.