Very nice picks. I too think Biden will easily regain Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania will be closer, but I expect Biden to win it when the votes are all counted. The Blue Wall is back, baby.

As for the toss-ups, we agree on:

Georgia: Biden
Iowa: Trump [He's got to win one of them, right?]
North Carolina: Biden
Pennsylvania: Biden

But we diverge on a couple because I think:

Arizona: Biden... Arizona is out of reach for Trump
Florida: Biden... Seniors and independents
Ohio: Biden... Independents and wishful thinking

As for Texas: Never heard of it. ;)

Okay, Texas is in play in 2020 because approximately 16%-18% of voters are "new" and didn't vote in 2016, and the numbers in 2020 are "off the charts" in a state that usually has participation of "dead last" or awfully dang near the bottom of the list. Your description for Texas is actually spot on, CW, as "Gen Z" are coming out in full force in Texas, and the suburbs continue to move away from the GOP.

The key to winning Texas will be GOTV of Hispanic voters, and they have also been disproportionately affected by COVID-19. Texas is now definitely possible.

Texas in 2024? Easier flip.
Texas in 2020? I'm not expecting it, honestly, and I'm a skeptic for many reasons... not the least of which is history. It's going to be close. My number crunching shows Trump losing an average of 8% across the board, and he won Texas by 9% in 2016. So it wouldn't surprise me if Trump wins it by a point. Still... I'm not about to bet against the Indies in Texas. You definitely have some giant honking cojones in calling Texas for Biden! :)

The popular vote is just that, a straight percentage.
Biden...55.5
Trump...41.1

Wow. That is very optimistic, and a 14-point win would equate to a landslide in the Electoral College.

I expect closer to:
Biden... 53%
Trump... 45%

I hope you are correct and I am wrong. :)

http://www.chrisweigant.com/2020/11/03/closing-time-schedule/

Everyone ready? Here we go!

-CW

Obviously, barring any accidental last-minute nuking of California and New York, Biden seems to be in the groove to be the next hall monitor of the US of Whatsits.

I ran a few numbers based on all the percentage-based polling for both the Popular vote and state EC tallies...I ran them twice to be pedantic.

The popular vote is just that, a straight percentage.
Biden...55.5
Trump...41.1

The ECV is where the juice is...

Biden has an 81.7% chance of hitting 270 first.
Trump, the sad fuck, has a 17.3% chance of crawling over the line first. (fun fact, Trump has the same odds as one roll of a die to hit a randomly chosen number.)

Over the last few years, I think I may have mentioned an old and dear acquaintance who works for a 'Disreputable Media outlet'...(cough-FOX-cough). We usually don't talk politics, as he never matured into a thoughtful liberal. We play WGT golf, and he's not bad, except for his approaches, he's clueless when it comes to the wind speed x height + distance...It's child play. Anyhoo, we chatted last night and covered a bit of ground. He's fairly sure Trump is back on the ground regarding his chances as out of the blue all things Trump at the network have been scaled back. Apparently, there's an internal juggle underway, as he put it...'A directional shift of a few degrees to caution'. Given what he knows, as his job is safe, between now and Christmas there are a few of the more feral Foxian types on the chopping block if 'tone' and content can't reign itself in... Hannity and Levin seem to be tameable, Carlson apparently doesn't care and Ingraham does what she's told. Seems the Murdoch's want a slight shift away from antagonising 'anyone' regardless of who's kicking around the White House.

The most telling thing I heard was, my 'acquaintance' was dis-invited to soiree tonight, for 'business'.

Asked what to watch out for tonight, 'No doubt, Jimmy, Texas'

For what it's worth, I don't see it, I can see Florida --maybe--, but then I don't have a billion-dollar corporation's tools to use. There's a bottle of 15-year-old Dalwhinnie single malt riding on this sucker, and I don't want to give it up, I've had it 12 years. If I win, I get a MAGA hat worn and signed by Trump from 2016.

Good luck everyone, Biden, putative president, should be called by one am... or earlier.

LL&P

I don't think either one of us was especially tough on her.

Oh, I quite agree, JFC. I think we have been pretty nice under the circumstances and all.

I wonder if Aussies know that story about the pot and the kettle.

Pot is good in brownies, and kettles are good too; I just assumed everybody already knew that. ;)

I also wonder if Aussies know that story about not being able to pour piss out of a boot with a hole in the toe and the directions on the heel.

I remember her getting really hostile with me...

Me too... I got these memory issues where I remember things, and I most definitely remember many of us saying things that she accused "no one" here of ever saying... while multiple of us already said it and said it directly to her. I also definitely remember her referring to Americans as "liars"... but not before she posted a bunch of falsehoods about Americans and America.

... while simultaneously getting really chummy with Mike Hunt.

Who? ;)

I for one loved to see some wild-eyed optimism. It's been missing from all the rundowns I've seen. So thanks!

I thought I was being pretty wild-eyed with that Texas call, too.

:-)

-CW

Thanks for sticking the boot in and reminding me why I don't come here very often anymore.

"Boot in"? Heh.

You're not exactly a friendly or pleasant group.

Said the Australian with memory issues who pops in occasionally and refers to this group as "liars"... but not before she posts a lot of falsehoods and misinformation.

http://www.chrisweigant.com/2020/10/26/electoral-math-the-final-stretch/#comment-170719

I thought it would have improved without Michale but evidently not.

Who?

The republican challenge lost in the state Supreme Court and, most recently, in US District Court with Judge Andrew Hanen tossing it out in a verbal ruling.

Incorrect. Most recently, the GOP lost in the Fifth Circuit: See [28] above. Also, Judge Hanen made a ruling both verbally and written.

https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/2020/10/2020-11-02-063-Order-Dismissing-Complaint.pdf

We got paper in Texas too. :)

I don't think either one of us was especially tough on her.

I wonder if Aussies know that story about the pot and the kettle. I remember her getting really hostile with me while simultaneously getting really chummy with Mike Hunt.

I'm definitely not drinking anyone's koolaid and don't have access to any weed, but if I did, I would most likely bake it into cookies or cake.

Good choice. Brownies are seriously perfect for baking weed.

PS: I'm not good at reading punctuation emojis beyond :( and :) so I wouldn't recognise a wink from a nudge.

;) <---- That's a wink. I know nothing of a "nudge."

Thank you for pointing out all my mistakes. I am now completely pessimistic. We'll lose every senate seat including Alabama. Happy now?

Actually, I really did like your list and how you have Democrats winning 60% of the Senate; I just know that's not going to happen in 2020. I think a realistic outcome will be 51-53 seats... somewhere around there. Do not bet on Doug Jones, but definitely don't bet against the astronaut. :)

Thanks for sticking the boot in and reminding me why I don't come here very often anymore. You're not exactly a friendly or pleasant group. I thought it would have improved without Michale but evidently not.

Thank you for pointing out all my mistakes. I am now completely pessimistic. We'll lose every senate seat including Alabama. Happy now?

The republican challenge lost in the state Supreme Court and, most recently, in US District Court with Judge Andrew Hanen tossing it out in a verbal ruling. They have now filed with the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. Not sure when the suit will be heard but chances are good they'll promptly side with Judge Hanen and it will be thrown out again.

I'm definitely not drinking anyone's koolaid and don't have access to any weed, but if I did, I would most likely bake it into cookies or cake.

Unfortunately it is not yet legal here though our Deputy Premier tells me they have voted to legalise it. His party has just won another 4-year term so I'm expecting/hoping marijuana will be legalised here sometime in the next year or so.

As for my Senate picks - and I wish I could include Amy McGrath but I don't think her outstanding debate performance will move the needle with Kentucky stick-in-the-muds - I prefer to be optimistic, especially since there's been very little opportunity for optimism in the last four years. And in case the worse happens, I want to get as much optimism in as I can while I can!

PS: I'm not good at reading punctuation emojis beyond :( and :) so I wouldn't recognise a wink from a nudge.

Trump's polling really well with the penguin demographic...

Heh.

-CW

Cool, I hadn't seen that last part, latest I'd heard was that they were still planning to appeal the ruling. Good to see that the votes already cast will be counted. I think the injunction, even if it had been ordered, probably wouldn't have been a big deal, more of a face-saving effort than anything.

My friend is among those over 127k votes that republicans are trying to negate in Texas. The most recent I've heard is that courts have rejected the attempt, but who knows how it'll turn out. I honestly don't know how my friend voted as I've never talked politics with him, but I really hope he gets his vote counted, regardless of who it goes to.

It'll be counted. The Texas Supreme Court denied it twice, and the federal judge found that plaintiffs had no standing to bring suit and stated that even if he had made a ruling on their case, he would have allowed the votes to count. Winning! GOP losing.

Of course, plaintiffs appealed the case to the 5th Circuit but dropped their request that the votes be thrown out and sought an injunction banning drive-thru voting, which overnight/last night was:

IT IS ORDERED that appellants’ motion for injunctive relief to issue a preliminary injunction banning drive-thru voting on Election Day, November 3, 2020, is DENIED.

https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/2020/10/ORDER.pdf

*
Still winning... GOP still losing but trying desperately to stop Texans from voting because they're seeing the same numbers coming out of Texas that everyone else is, and they're terrified to have all the votes in Texas counted!

Suck it, GOP. Texas is flipping... sooner or later. :)

Mike Espy in Mississippi? Highly unlikely.

Montana: Bullock? I hope so... but I'm a skeptic.

In a state hard hit with Covid19, the health issue will win out (and might even give Biden the edge).

Biden having an edge in Montana? Montana? :)

South Carolina: Jaime Harrison... I wish... but demographically unlikely.

Texas: Hegar a nail-biter? Boy do I wish. We are stuck with Cornyn for another six years (I'm a Texan).

Alabama: Also in the plus column, I think we have a good chance of retaining Doug Collins

Doug Collins is running in the Georgia special election so he's not likely to win in Alabama... and neither is Doug Jones who actually is running in Alabama.

Democrats currently have 46 seats in the US Senate.

Nope. They have 45 plus 2 Independents who caucus with them for a total of 47.

If we hold Alabama and win 11, that will put us on 57.

Alabama? Alabama? :)

I think Warnock can beat out Loeffler which would give us 58.

Your numbers are off... also 58!

Add in the two Independents and the Left side can make the magic 60 figure.

Democrats have 45 seats in the Senate plus 2 Independents that caucus with them for a total of 47 seats at the current time. Hold Alabama? What are you smoking? Make the magic 60 figure? It must be some really good weed. ;)

Instead of being insulting, if you don't like my list, let's see yours.

I said nothing about "not liking" your "list." I did, however, note that you've called every single competitive race in the Senate in favor of the Democratic candidate and then winked and asked you a question. :)

So what are you consuming?

* Baked weed
* Rolled weed
* Kool-Aid

That, incidentally, was my list. ;)

Instead of being insulting, if you don't like my list, let's see yours.

You have Democrats winning every competitive seat in the Senate. Are you eating or smoking that weed? ;)

I think Adam Schiff will be favourite to become the next Speaker of the House.

It's common knowledge that Pelosi has been grooming Schiff for multiple years now. :)

Breaking News: Trump Campaign demands recount of Dixville Notch results, claiming massive voter fraud.

Heh... and then Hair Dick Tater tweets out:

50,000 ballots located in Notch: Trump declared King of Dicksville!
_____________

Yes, I need sleep. :)

I wish I could use emojis because I'd have all the grinning and laughing ones in a row in response to this breaking news!

In a free and fair election...

Arizona: Mark Kelley beats out Martha McSally easily and Arizona goes to Biden on Kelley's coattails.

Colorado: Popular 2-term governor John Hickenlooper takes out Cory Gardner.

Georgia John Ossoff beats David Perdue after annihilating him in a recent debate.

Georgia Rev Raphael Warnock makes it to the run-off with Kelly Loeffler.

Iowa Theresa Greenville picks up Joni Ernst's seat.

Kansas Former republican state senator and now passionate Democrat Barbara Bollier will beat out Roger Marshall in this open seat.

Maine Sara Gideon had this won as soon as she declared. Susan Collins has made too many glaring mistakes and Mainers have had enough of her.

Mississippi Mike Espy has out-campaigned the lacklustre Cindy Hyde-Smith who refused to debate him because she knew she'd come off the worse and everyone else knows it too.

Montana Another popular 2-term governor, and current governor, Steve Bullock will beat out Steve Daines. Bullock has a proven ability to reach across the aisle that Daines does not have. Also Montanans don't want to lose the ACA or the expanded Medicaid Bullock gave them. In a state hard hit with Covid19, the health issue will win out (and might even give Biden the edge).

North Carolina Cal Cunningham is one of those candidates with "winner" written all over him while Thom Tillis resembles a damp dishrag. I think Cunningham has got this.

South Carolina I've never before seen a person so desperate to lose their seat as Lindsay Graham. I think his losing tactics will work for him and Jaime Harrison will pick up this seat.

Texas This will be a nail-biter but I think Mary J Hegar will edge out a gaff-ridden John Cornyn.

Also in the plus column, I think we have a good chance of retaining Doug Collins in Alabama - he's likeable and they like him!

Democrats currently have 46 seats in the US Senate. If we hold Alabama and win 11, that will put us on 57. I think Warnock can beat out Loeffler which would give us 58. Add in the two Independents and the Left side can make the magic 60 figure.

I'm also confident Democrats will increase their majority in the US House. With Biden safely in the White House, I believe Nancy Pelosi will pass on the gavel and retire at the end of her next term. I think Adam Schiff will be favourite to become the next Speaker of the House.

Breaking News: Trump Campaign demands recount of Dixville Notch results, claiming massive voter fraud.

I hope your prediction is right to the extent that election day is largely peaceful. I am concerned that there will be aggressive harassment of voters in some places by worked-up trumpers.

I wasn't concerned until I read about the harassment of the Biden-Harris bus in Texas and the attempt there to run it off the road. That was followed by trumpers blocking traffic on major highways in New York and New Jersey and a 95-mile blockade in Nevada.

There's organisation in the background and it's being fuelled by Trump encouraging this bullying lawlessness.

Good heavens no! Don't anyone tell Trump or he'll declare himself the winner already while he's in front!

The indications are strong that republicans cheat in Pennsylvania (via voting machines and tabulators without paper trails but with state laws that prevent these machines ever being forensically investigated so tampering is immune to detection), North Carolina, Georgia, Florida (it's rampant in this state and the only way republicans can win the governorship and keep senators) and some parts of Texas. Given that Karl Rove and Roger Stone are likely to be the ones in charge of the ratf*^king, all these states may go to Trump.

There's also plenty of anecdotal evidence that cheating in Wisconsin is via tabulators but likely only in a few places and it may not be enough this time round to stop Biden from winning. (It wasn't enough to stop the governorship going to a Democrat and that's a good sign.)

Republican cheaters have been caught in North Carolina and charged with fraud. That only affected one race in 2018 (and their corrupt republican legislature stepped in to make sure the do-over race favoured the replacement republican when they should have kept their beaks out of the whole situation). The first complaint about this fraud was made in 2016 but ignored by the then GOP-majority State Election Commission. The Dem-majority Election Commission investigated in 2018.

Fraud has also been found in the ranks of the state's GOP leadership and more people have been charged there too.

Georgia's penchant for cheating became the basis for a court case back in 2017. Just days after the suit was filed, the computer server central to the 2016 election was quietly wiped clean by its custodians. When the judge in the case ordered that back-up data on a university computer be downloaded and brought to court, that computer also was mysteriously wiped clean.

Stacey Abrams, without directly calling out former State SoS Brian Kemp, has also subtly implied that Georgia is beset with electoral fraud.

Because these fraud schemes are perpetrated via voting machines and tabulators, Trump and his GOP cronies are terrified that mail-in paper ballots will vastly outnumber electronic votes and therefore not be subject to their fraud schemes. Enter DeJoy to sabotage the USPS.

I'm hoping their cheating schemes won't work for them this year. It's obvious Trump is worried enough to want McConnell to rush through Barrett's confirmation to SCOTUS in case he needs the Supreme Court to decide the winner.

If he's losing Tuesday night and Wednesday, Trump will not leave it there. He and his co-conspirators have already plotted out the moves they intend to make. I don't know what's going to happen but I'll be watching for it and hoping hard GOP dirty tricks fail them this time.

Example of a sentence that must be read in context.

I can't sleep... just in case anyone was wondering. ;)

Joe Biden will win New Hampshire. That's not the spoiler alert.

One of the voters in Dixville Notch was a lifelong Republican. That's not the spoiler.

I've crunched enough data to know that's it's safe to say we'll be hearing about a lot of Republicans voting for Joe Biden. :)

I guess I forgot to credit E-V.com this time. I've always gotten my data from them, but I like the maps on 270ToWin, mostly because you can download them as a file. Most other sites that let you play around with the electoral map don't.

chaszzzbrown [3] -

I almost mentioned the "reverse coattail" effect, both for AZ and for NC (I think it'll help Biden there, too). But I forgot, in the end. Good point, though -- it's a strange thing for a Senate candidate to help the top of the ticket instead of the other way 'round...

Kick [5] -

Dixville Notch is down to only 5 voters? I remember they used to at least be in the teens... thanks I'll check the link out!

:-)

-CW

Former Vice President Joe Biden took all five of the votes cast for president in Dixville Notch, a tiny New Hampshire township along the US-Canada border that is among the first places in the country to make its presidential preference known.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/02/politics/dixville-notch-2020-results/index.html

But as several commentators have noted, Joe is running a double race. Along with trying to actually win, he has to virtually win. That is, he needs to have early and solid leads in the states that will cause the media to give him the nod on Tuesday night. If he can't pull that together, the president's predictable "Stop counting! I've won!" will have some legs, and who knows what will happen next, even if Joe's totals trickle in to the 350-190 numbers later in the week.

By the way, I am curious why you invoke the 270ToWin site in this post, when for the past few weeks you have been drawing on Electoral Vote dot com for your projections.