My 2026 Election Picks

It’s time once again to put my crystal ball’s reputation on the line and predict the outcome of tomorrow’s midterm elections.

The biggest races are, of course, for Senate seats. The entire House of Representatives is up for election as well, but it’s virtually impossible to track 435 separate contests, so all the attention has been on the Senate races. Also flying mostly under the radar are many competitive governors’ races, and the Democrats have a very good chance of achieving something they haven’t managed since 2010 — winning a majority of governorships nationwide.

But as I said, most of the attention has been on the Senate contests, so that’s what I’m going to focus on here. Before I begin, I will just pull a number out of thin air and predict that Democrats are going to walk away with 230 House seats, easily regaining control of the chamber. This is actually a fairly conservative estimate, as some other pundits are predicting 235 or even 240 Democratic wins, but I am trying not to be too wild-eyed this year, so I’m going to put my money on 230 (and hope I have underestimated things).

I have listed the ten most competitive Senate races below, in rough geographical order. We’re all going to be watching the results come in from east to west, so that’s how I ordered my picks (without bothering to check exactly when the polls close in each state, I admit — I said the order was just “rough,” after all).

We’ve got a lot of races to look at, so I have to preface this rundown with a very quick roundup of a few states where hopes are now — or were once — high on either side of the aisle, but which just do not seem to me to be based in reality. All of these would be flipped states, were they to go the other direction, but none of them seem all that plausible to me. So here are the states I think will be easy wins (“gimmes,” almost) for both parties tomorrow night, in addition to the ten I’m going to address individually:

 

Republican wins

There is a building backlash across the Deep South by Black voters who are absolutely incensed with the Supreme Court (and their own state legislatures) for removing voting rights they had enjoyed since the Civil Rights era of the 1960s. This has meant certain states are actually polling very competitively, and some Democrats have gotten their hopes up for stunning upsets. But I remain skeptical, so I am predicting that the Senate races in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida are all going to remain in Republican hands.

Further west, I also think that the hopes some Democrats have of flipping South Dakota and Montana are also not realistic. In both of these cases, it wouldn’t exactly be flipping the state to the Democrats, because the candidate with the best chance of beating the Republican in both states is an Independent. In South Dakota, the Democratic candidate dropped out to clear the field, but in Montana the Democratic candidate refused to do so. The Independent candidates still have a shot in both states, but in the end I’m going to predict that both of them stay in Republican hands.

All of these five states are currently held by Republicans, I should mention, so hanging on to them won’t change the final tally at all.

 

Democratic wins

Likewise, some Republicans also got their hopes up for flipping some blue states, but all of these hopes are going to be dashed in the end. The three states Republicans tried to target will all remain safely blue, I predict. Georgia, in particular, is going to be a cakewalk for Senator Jon Ossoff. And New Hampshire and Minnesota will also remain in Democratic hands as well. Perhaps if this hadn’t been such a “blue wave” year, the GOP might have had a chance in one or more of them, but with the headwinds of Trump’s massive unpopularity, Republicans really just didn’t have a chance in any of them.

With that out of the way, let’s get to the ten tossup races, one by one.

 

North Carolina

This one is possibly the easiest one to call of the whole cycle, so it’s a good one to start with. Democrat Roy Cooper is going to absolutely crush his Republican opponent Michael Whatley. Every poll says so, often by double digits. Republicans even pulled all their advertising money out of the state weeks ago, effectively giving up on the race. Cooper is a very popular former governor of the state and Whatley is relatively unknown. This will be the first clear pickup of the night for Democrats, since the seat is open due to Republican Thom Tillis being forced out of office by Donald Trump’s wrath. Democrats should really thank Trump for handing them this seat on a silver platter (Whatley was Trump’s pick in the primaries, so he really does bear all of the blame).

 

South Carolina

This is one of many very deeply-red states where Democrats actually have a chance of winning, which is pretty shocking to even consider. When Lindsey Graham unexpectedly died this year, his sister, Darline Graham Nordone (who seems to have wisely dropped the “Nordone” part of her name, for the election at least) was appointed to take his place in the Senate. She was initially supposed to just be a placeholder, filling out her brother’s term until the midterm election. The initial plan was that she wasn’t even supposed to run for the seat in November.

But then Trump decided he liked her, and backed her entry into the GOP primary race. Which she went on to win (which seriously annoyed some state-level Republicans, who had been jockeying for the replacement slot). Graham Nordone faltered during a debate on a question about foreign policy (which was one of her brother’s strongest points), and lost some support by her weak performance.

But very recently, the New York Times released a poll showing that Dr. Annie Andrews, the Democratic nominee in the race, had pulled essentially even with Graham Nordone in the polls. This shook the race up, and elevated Democratic hopes for a surprise victory in a deeply red state.

But I just can’t buy it. This is South Carolina, for Pete’s sake. I think that the Times poll is just going to motivate on-the-fence Republicans to turn out to vote for Lindsey Graham’s sister, in the end. And although the victory may be a small one (margin-wise) I think Democrats will fall short here.

(If I am wrong about this, it could signal a Democratic blowout in a whole bunch of other races, I should at least mention in passing….)

 

Maine

This is a tough one. It really is. My heart wants to believe the polling, which is showing a very late surge by Democrat Troy Jackson. But my head keeps thinking that incumbent Republican Susan Collins has beaten the polling odds multiple times before.

Jackson, of course, was not the Maine voters’ initial choice for a Democratic nominee. That was Graham Platner, who was taken out of the race by a rape allegation from a former girlfriend. And Jackson is universally acknowledged to be not the best campaigner (not nearly as charismatic and crowd-friendly as Platner, at least).

But I am going to go against the polling surge and, quite sadly, predict that Collins survives. I hate to do so, I really do, but her message is a pretty simple one: “I bring home the bacon for Maine.” She has a very powerful position in the Senate and uses it to direct oodles of federal money to her state — which a newbie Democrat couldn’t hope to match. And this is a powerful thing in a small state (which sometimes larger-state people don’t fully appreciate).

I would really like to be wrong about this one, I really would. But in the end I have to say Susan Collins pulls a rabbit out of the hat once more and wins another term.

 

Ohio

I’m just going to go with my gut here, and predict that Democrat Sherrod Brown wins back a Senate seat, defeating incumbent Jon Husted (who has never won election for the seat, but was appointed to serve out the rest of JD Vance’s term, when he became vice president). And no, Trump’s love of the way Husted’s ass looks is just not going to help him with Ohio voters, by the way.

Brown has run an exemplary campaign, leaning in heavily on economic populism and (most especially) tapping into the bipartisan rage over data centers popping up in people’s neighborhoods unannounced. This should be a big message to other Democrats, going forward, in fact (the potency that this issue truly has).

Brown is a likeable guy, and much like Bernie Sanders has been consistent in his support for Unions and working-class Americans for decades, now. That is exactly the message voters are responding to, with gas and diesel prices through the roof and fears of data centers and A.I. taking people’s jobs. So although the polls are close (while mostly favoring Brown), I am going to confidently predict that Brown will win tomorrow night.

(Oh, also that Vivek Ramaswamy will lose, in the governor’s race. Which he deserves to, after that reprehensible ad….)

 

Michigan

This is also a tough one to call. But I’m going with my gut again here and predicting that Democrat Dr. Abdul El-Sayed will indeed pull out a victory here. This could wind up being as bad a call as my Maine pick, I do realize.

There was a very late-breaking earthquake on the Democratic side of the race, of course. But I think it’s going to largely backfire and actually create more motivation for people to vote for El-Sayed. This is a total gut feeling and could prove to be very wrong, but it just feels right to me. The defection of the Democrat El-Sayed beat in the primary at the last possible moment just doesn’t seem like enough to convince most voters to change their preference too.

The final poll from the New York Times put El-Sayed up by 11 points (53-42 percent), which I think will prove to be an outlier — I think the race will be closer than that — but in the end I still think El-Sayed will win tomorrow night.

 

Iowa

Iowa is perhaps the toughest one of all to predict. Out of all of the close races this year, Iowa has probably polled the closest. Looking at the polls, it seems like a perfectly-balanced tie right now. Which is why I have to reluctantly say that Josh Turek will get very close to beating Ashley Hinson, but fall short in the end. I think Iowa’s shift to being a reliably-red state will overcome the momentum Turek built during his campaign. I could wind up being wrong about this, but then that’s true for a number of these races. But in the end, I think Iowa winds up staying in the Republican column this year.

 

Nebraska

This one is a rather strange one, because there isn’t even a Democrat on the ballot. The Democratic nominee, after winning the primary, promptly dropped out of the race. This was intentional, in order to give Independent candidate Dan Osborn a clear shot at beating Republican Pete Ricketts in the general election.

Osborn has run before, but he fell just short of victory. Sadly, I think that scenario is going to repeat itself tomorrow. Nebraska, like many rural states, is in play this year because Trump’s economic agenda has hit farmers and ranchers so hard. So Osborn does have a chance, and the polling has been close. But in the end I think Nebraskans are going to go with what they consider the safe choice and Osborn will fall just short of victory once again.

 

Kansas

Kansas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but I think that winning streak for Republicans is going to be broken tomorrow night. From all accounts, Adam Hamilton has been running a stellar campaign, while Republican incumbent Roger Marshall has struggled with all kinds of issues.

Kansas is another very rural state with lots and lots of farmers and ranchers who are incensed about the high price of diesel fuel, Trump’s tariffs ruining their overseas market for crops like soybeans, and Trump interfering in the market for beef (to the detriment of U.S. ranchers).

Hamilton was an excellent choice for Kansas Democrats, as his values align very nicely with those of the people of his state. Marshall has been weighed down by his OB/GYN practice going after people who couldn’t pay their medical bills, and he’s never really recovered from that blow.

If it weren’t for some of the other headline races this year, Kansas flipping blue would have been the biggest political story of them all. Even with the other high-profile races, I think that Kansas sending a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in almost a century is going to be a political earthquake right in the middle of the country.

 

Texas

But Kansas will be overshadowed by the news from Texas, since I think James Talarico is going to beat Ken Paxton tomorrow night — which will be seen as the biggest upset of the election cycle. Democrats’ long-held dream of flipping Texas blue is finally going to be realized, after repeated disappointments in past elections.

An absolute mountain of money was spent on this race (Texas has many expensive media markets, making it very pricey to get a message out statewide). Elon Musk personally threw in many millions of dollars to boost Paxton. Donald Trump visited the state four times. But in the end, it isn’t going to be enough to overcome the sleaziness of the candidate Trump backed in the primaries.

Like North Carolina, Texas is going to be a state that Trump will personally be responsible for handing over to the Democrats. In both instances, Trump forced a sitting Republican senator out — both of whom would almost certainly have cruised to an easy re-election (especially in Texas).

Talarico is going to have some coattails too, I predict. I think Texas Governor Greg Abbott is going to be defeated by Democrat Gina Hinojosa tomorrow night as well. I feel less sure of this prediction, but if Texas is truly going blue, then why not blue across the board?

 

Alaska

Sadly, I think that the late-breaking bombshell news in Alaska is going to make a difference. Democrat Mary Peltola is going to fall short in her bid to unseat Dan Sullivan, and the scandal of how a second Dan Sullivan got on the ballot will likely be to blame.

This is a shame, because Peltola really did have a shot and had a small lead in the polls, before the scandal hit the news (in an explosive New York Times story). Peltola has tried to distance herself from the whole mess, but by doing so she ran the risk of seeming not to be in control of her own campaign staff. There was just no good way for her to react, really.

Playing political games with the ballot isn’t the worst scandal imaginable, mind you, but I think it will be enough to convince just enough voters to change their minds at the last minute for Peltola to fall short.

 

Conclusions

I have to admit I don’t feel a high degree of confidence in many of my picks this year. Polling has gotten less and less accurate over the past few decades, and Democrats had to fight up a very steep hill this cycle. But they have done a stellar job overall, becoming competitive in states that Trump won two years ago by double digits. Democrats are quite likely to win tomorrow in multiple states that no one in their right mind would have considered likely pickups a year ago. That is an impressive feat indeed.

My picks are a little more conservative than what others are saying, I realize. And for the record, I hope I am wrong about Maine, Iowa, or Alaska (or all three!). But even though I have tried to be extra-cautious about my selections, it still adds up to the Democrats taking back control of the Senate, with a 51-seat majority.

My hopes are that Democrats wind up with more seats than that, but I’ve been burned before by getting my hopes way too high right before Election Day, so I am playing it a little safer this year.

Anyway, those are my picks — Democrats win 230 seats in the House, 51 seats in the Senate, and a majority of governorships to boot. Think I’m wrong? Let me know in the comments what your picks are, and we’ll all gather ’round tomorrow night and watch the returns come in.

— Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant