i kinda figured as much.

JL

Five bucks a gram? Did you just say five bucks a gram?!?

Wow. Color me impressed!

:-)

John M [29] -

Thanks for the update, I'd been kinda wondering when he'd commit. Got a link to go with that?

-CW

I don't think there is a shred of formal statistics in the model. All the variables are reasonable, but they are not independent of each other, and I doubt they are even close to being of equal weight. Given the surprising number professional political scientists in the USA, and the infrequency of elections, somebody's model is likely to be spot on due to dumb luck. Lichtman is no fool (far from it) but the model is a parlor game.

And, the mail-in ballot, ah, debate is another potential fly in the ointment with 65% of Trump voters responding in a recent poll that they will vote in-person while 76% of Biden's supporters say they intend to vote by mail.

That's not quite right.

What this poll actually found was that amongst those respondents who said they would be voting 'in person', 65% would vote for Trump; of all the respondents who said they intend to vote by mail, 76% said they would vote for Biden.

So, that is still quite a disparity. But, how could this impact the outcome of the election is the interesting debate ...

I do not believe Trump realizes that the testing that most Americans are given doesn’t offer immediate (+/ - 15 min) results...because the White House tests DO. Trump does not think past his own existence — he is not capable of doing that!

Yep. He just makes up BS and spews whatever drivel he thinks will win him the day, and his staff has to scramble and tell everyone "what he actually meant." *shakes head*

Social media is finally getting wise to Trump's misinformation that is deadly and literally killing Americans. Children are not "immune" or "almost immune"... not even close... they are superspreaders.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2020/08/05/trump-facebook-post-fox-interview-covid-19-removed-misinformation/3304557001

Trump has been spreading misinformation about the novel coronavirus and downplaying its severity and pushing fake news since Day 1, and the gullible sheeple and useful idiots bleat it back on cue... and it's killing people.

Wow. That truck driver was Florida Man too.

Here is the link for that poll I mentioned above - it shows that among likely voters, 50 percent support Biden while 46% support Trump and only 4 percent of likely voters are undecided, a big drop since last month.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/july-national-poll-biden-maintains-lead-in-presidential-race-majority-support-nationwide-mask-mandate-in-public-spaces

I don't think there is consensus within the intel community on this.

But, I've been flabbergasted with Trump's affection for Putin since that presser in Helsinki. In fact, I thought that alone was grounds for kicking him out of the WH.

There a bunch of factors this time around that are capable of upending Lichtman's analysis, superficial as that analysis seems to be during the best of times, with the increasingly disastrous COVID-19 situation throughout the US being the most impactful.

And, the mail-in ballot, ah, debate is another potential fly in the ointment with 65% of Trump voters responding in a recent poll that they will vote in-person while 76% of Biden's supporters say they intend to vote by mail.

What could go disastrously wrong? Ahem.

No, we have plenty of evidence! Our intelligence agencies can tie bank transfers from Russian accounts into Taliban accounts with the deaths of American soldiers. What makes this even more horrible is that Trump was informed about the bounties long before any were fulfilled...but he refused to say anything to Putin to put an end to them! He refused to have our government do anything in response — no warnings to Russia that if they were responsible for the death of a single service member, this would result in serious consequences intended to remove any doubt from the Russians that they are not a world power anymore. He let Putin buy the lives of Americans and had no issue doing it! Trump is a traitor!

10. Foreign or Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. True. “We’ve had some very difficult moments with Donald Trump, but so far, true.”

"Seriously, how does such a flagrant act of TREASON NOT qualify as a “military failure” by the incumbent administration???"

I would agree with you. But the responses I listed were Lichtman's own that he himself just put out. Other people's responses could be different, can circumstances might flip more keys between now and November. His prediction of Trump's win in 2016 was made in September of 2016.

I love that Florida Man meme...

Florida man clings to semi truck hood for 9 miles on freeway: Watch the video

I'll probably be beating it to death in the comment section.

Heh. :)

"Well, John, it was 7 keys for Biden against 6 keys for Trump.

How did Lichtman's other predictions stack up with regard to numbers of keys?

And, should some keys be weighted more than others?"

I'm afraid I can't really answer those questions. I don't have enough in depth knowledge.

But I can tell you the following:

1.) Lichtman's keys are predominantly a predictor of the popular vote.

2.) In 2000, the system predicted that Gore would be the next president; Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. Remember the Supreme Court stopped the Florida vote recount.

3.) In September 2016, the Keys predicted that Donald Trump would win the popular vote in the 2016 election, whereas he lost the popular vote, but won the electoral college.

So with those 2 caveats, it can claim to have accurately predicted the last 9 presidential elections since 1984.

How hard is it to go to a freakin' funeral, or even visit the coffin lying in state? This is minority voter outreach? Hardly....

I know, right!? And today -- get this -- Trump opens his Orange Blowhole and spews this:

I thought it was a terrible speech, it was an angry speech, it showed this anger there that people don’t see, he lost control. And he’s really been hit very hard by both sides for that speech, that speech was ridiculous.

~ Donald Trump, 08/05/20

*
Does anyone think Trump has any clue what Obama said at the funeral of Mr. Lewis other than the right-wing whining conspiracy drivel and spew he heard on Fox News? Trump is so full of crap.

Trump minority voter outreach: Angry black man BS. What a dick!

Look at you go. :)

Trump was all gushy about the number of COVID tests, but completely ignored the huge lag between testing and reporting of results. Testing is most useful when it is paired with contact tracing and quarantine of infected individuals. That actually slows the spread of the virus. Anything else is just tombstone statistics - useful as history, but not now.

I do not believe Trump realizes that the testing that most Americans are given doesn’t offer immediate (+/ - 15 min) results...because the White House tests DO. Trump does not think past his own existence — he is not capable of doing that!

That would make it 8 keys to 5. Which is significantly better for Biden. :)

But, isn't the jury still out on whether Putin paid for the death of American soldiers? I mean, that would be pretty brazen on Putin's part and for what, in the grand scheme of things ...

Trump sat by and did nothing as Russia put a bounty on the heads of American troops in Afghanistan... if that is NOT a MILITARY FAILURE then I don’t know what is! The Commander In Chief not only ignored when an foreign adversary put a hit out on our military personnel — he continued ignoring this when our soldiers began dying and Russia followed through on paying for the kills that they had ordered.

Seriously, how does such a flagrant act of TREASON NOT qualify as a “military failure” by the incumbent administration???

i don't think his model was that statistically intricate.

JL

How did Lichtman's other predictions stack up with regard to numbers of keys?

And, should some keys be weighted more than others?

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than it did after the previous midterm elections. False. “Republicans lost the U.S. House midterms in 2018.”

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. True. “No Republicans challenged Trump.”

3. Incumbency: The sitting president is running for re-election. True. “Doesn’t look like he’s stepping down.”

4. Third Party: There is no major third-party challenge. True. “Despite claims by Kanye West to be running, this is a two-party race.”

5. Short-Term Economy: The economy during the election season is not in recession. False. “The [coronavirus] pandemic has pushed the economy into recession.”

6. Long-Term Economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms. False. “The pandemic has caused such negative GDP growth in 2020 that the key has turned false.”

7. Policy Change: The incumbent causes major changes in national policy. True. ”Through his tax cut, but mostly through his executive orders, Trump has fundamentally changed the policies of the Obama era.”

8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the campaign. False. “There has been considerable social unrest on the streets, with enough violence to threaten the social order.”

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals. False. “As I predicted, Trump was impeached. Plus, he has plenty of other scandals.”

10. Foreign or Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. True. “We’ve had some very difficult moments with Donald Trump, but so far, true.”

11. Foreign or Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. False. “While Trump hasn’t had any big, splashy failures, he hasn’t had any major successes either.”

12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic. False. “Trump is a great showman, but he only appeals to a narrow slice of Americans.”

13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic. True. “Biden is a decent, empathetic person, but he’s not inspirational or charismatic.”

Going again next week, they start selling 'Cubes', can't wait.

LL&P

I'm really jealous about your shopping spree.

I don't know if Zep could be described as an aquired taste, we Zed-heads aren't concerned, I saw the Page/Plant tour when it bounced into the Skydome (as was) three hours of some of the best live music I've ever heard, 56,000 people stoned, singing every word, headbanging ritually to Kashmir...

~"Talk in song from tongues of lilting grace
Sounds caress my ear
And not a word I heard could I relate
The story was quite clear"~

LL&P

Leader McConnell just said he’s not going to get a whole lot of Republican votes for whatever is going to pass. So I’d remind the Republican leader, and the negotiators, that if this bill is going to pass with all Democrats in the House and a majority of Democrats in the Senate, it’s got to be something that Democrats like and support.

That's a pretty good description of the poor pandemic stimulus negotiating position that Moscow Mitch is in.

Testing is most useful when it is paired with contact tracing and quarantine of infected individuals. That actually slows the spread of the virus.

That is so true.

But, I am told that investment in the public health architecture that would be required for testing, isolation, care for infected individuals, contact tracing and quarantining of contacts "won't happen".

So, I guess all I can do is wish y'all the best of luck and hope that it will be enough. :(

Trump was all gushy about the number of COVID tests, but completely ignored the huge lag between testing and reporting of results. Testing is most useful when it is paired with contact tracing and quarantine of infected individuals. That actually slows the spread of the virus. Anything else is just tombstone statistics - useful as history, but not now.

In the Swan Interview Trump was fixated upon case reporting. I don't see any signs he understands the concept - and especially the lags that are associated with it. COVID19 is a multivariate problem. Trump has a univariate mind with a cherry picking tendency - and that assessment is charitable. In common parlance, he lies a lot.

As for the "butchers bill" it is what it is in large part because Trump's bungling was a major factor in making things as bad as they are.

All hail Swan: he showed some guts to Power.

Sorry about the typos in comment 9 - my internet was all glitched up and freezing yesterday evening. Seems fine this morning.

I love that Florida Man meme and was flirting with it for your favorite troll recently and didn't make the connection to Drumpf until moments before I posted this evening. Thinking about his shark obsession brought it out. I hope you do use it because that'll be fun. I'll probably be beating it to death in the comment section.

http://www.chrisweigant.com/2020/08/03/electoral-math-biden-looking-solid/#comment-166909

Just for everyone's information...

-CW

Bonus points for being topically up-to-date!

Heh.

[4] -

How hard is it to go to a freakin' funeral, or even visit the coffin lying in state? This is minority voter outreach? Hardly....

[6] -

Oh, man, I have totally been missing that connection. I even saw "#FloridaMan" when I was tweeting about this article, and STILL didn't put it together.

Trump is now the ULTIMATE "Florida man"!

Excellent point, I have to admit. And give credit where it is due... I will probably use this in the future, and you deserve the nod!

TheStig [9] -

I commented to my wife while watching the full interview that this is why I'm looking forward to the debates -- because Trump is so downright astonished when anyone dares to contradict his BS.

Personally, I want to see Joe Biden leap in at some point with:

"You call me mentally challenged? How many freakin' months have you been dealing with this and you still haven't learned when the Spanish Flu happened?!?"

Trump, once again (he's done this dozens and dozens of times) said during the interview: "the Spanish Flu of 1917."

Sigh.

But the best commentary on the interview comes from Jennifer "Jengahzi" Rubin, ultraconservative columnist at the Washington Post, who pointed out that this sort of interview should really be normal and not a cause for astonishment among the rest of the media:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/04/mainstream-media-stop-admiring-good-interviews-reform-your-approach/

dsws [10] -

I appreciate your pedantry (really I do!) but in this case it doesn't apply. Ever since Trump tried to split this hair, the White House has fallen back on distinguishing "universal mail-in voting" as what Trump was originally talking about. But he wasn't (check his earliest references to it). And in Florida, there simply is no difference at all -- they scoured the state's laws to remove any difference, to avoid such confusion (Florida started no-excuse absentee/mail-in voting after the 2000 debacle).

James T. Canuck [13] -

Yo! Semitee!

Heh. Again, if I were Biden, I'd challenge Trump to pronounce "Tuolumne."

Heh.

How freakin' hard is it to remember Yosemite Sam, after all?

[16] -

I thought it was "Mama you got to move"?

Isn't that what Led Zep sang?

Personally, I think their version is one of the best rock/blues songs ever recorded, and I'm not even that big a fan of the band in general...

:-)

Let's hope the final refrain comes true:

"Going down, going down now, going down..."

-CW

After a long sabbatical and a hip replacement, I've once again dipped my toe in the refreshing pool of active dating. I know what you're thinking..."Studly J to the T add a C back in the fray of the un-gay", but I can't speak to your weirdness, only my own.
So, having found a charming lady, whose non-comital dating practice equals my own, we met, we ate, we thrift-shopped, we laughed and then we bade one another to bed.
Here comes the cool part.
The next day we decided a trip to the local reservation for some cheap smokes was in order, we ate and off we sped. Arriving in Marysville, we agreed to shop around for the best deal, and why not? The two-mile strip of smoke emporiums begs deals aplenty, and time being of no matter wasted or spent wisely, we did.
It was at third shop we went to where the aforementioned cool was to be found, my jaw dropped. For five bucks a gram Canadian there was 48 different kinds of weed, 23 different types of hash, 12 choices of oil, and a Slurpee machine that wasn't plugged in.
I dropped a C note before you could say, "and two packs of skins, Man"
12 grams of pot, four grams of oil, and four lumps of hash...Oh, and the gratis gram of 'Mint Chocolate-Chip' that seems to come with every purchase in the highly competative world of unrestrained legal dope.

Man...I love Canada. I've been watching the world spin on for the last few months and wondering if life will return to normal, then Canada steps to plate...Hockey is showing all the other sports how to get their shit together. My geographic area of upwards of four million people registered 3 new CV19 over the weekend, two of which were promptly deported back to the US. A delightful woman falls into my lap and I have realised a long-shot quest... The Mother of all joints.

I impart this for your emotional health. If Trump wasn't enough of a scourge for past hubris, CV19 and hurricanes, plagues of boils, and other assorted biblical hellfires and damnation seem to be taking up the slack. Be patient, don't become a patient, and make your move in November...The grass is green on both sides of the fence, Americans are, on the whole, decent, and pandemics can be tamed when a society drops its partisanship and works together toward the singular goal of a shared public health.

There's no such thing as a good time to spit out a tortured tautology like, "it is what it is"... you can bet folding money there will be t-shirts, pins and other assorted political ephemera reminding you all of how stupid that remark was and how it quite rightly it's time for Trumpism and all it's evil vestiges to die.

LL&P

Keep it up, Peeps, and I'll have good stuff to read with my morning coffee.

That being a scathing indictment of man's inhumanity towards man, from a man (and I use that term because it always gets a laugh) whose priorities don't include the wellbeing of anyone other than himself and the feral children he cursed the earth with.

"Oh cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do no good
Oh cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do no good
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to lose..."

That's right.

LL&P

sounds like an anti-yo-semitic slur.

Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey... good bye.

LL&P

That just about sums up another day in paradox.

I grow weary of Trump and the idiotic malapropisms and awkward lecturn word saladry.

I would say, "when will this fresh hell draw to a close" but I didn't just fall off a turnip truck, Trump's legacy will take blunt-force eradication 'like no one has ever seen before' to cleanse America of this regretable era of twitchy democracy.

I'm still waiting for the Left-Wing Fascists to throw down their album, "Never Mind The Bollocks, Grab The Pussy"...lol

A not so subtle reference to the Sex Pistols, for the one or two of you who aren't familiar with truly hard right-wing legacy of 'no brains, no problem'.

If it isn't what it is, then it must be what it isn't, covfefe.

LL&P

It's impossible to ignore that The President's brain is missing.

"It is what it is."

This week's super-spreader event is the big biker shindig in Sturgis. What could go wrong?

Midget wrestling at The Knuckle Saloon:

https://www.theknuckle.com/

Well... you asked. :)

No they aren't. Absentee ballots are an accommodation for voters who are not in their home precinct on election day. Mail-in voting is a system administered as though a substantial fraction of the electorate is expected to use it. There's some gray area, where a system designed as an accommodation for absent voters is pressed into service for a wider swath of the citizenry. But there's also lots of non-gray area, where absentee ballots require documentation, or main-in ballots or ballot-applications are sent to all registered voters.

How hard is it to say "John Lewis was a great civil rights leader"?

But, JFC, John Lewis didn't go to little Donny's "birthday party," and isn't that how everyone judges the historical accomplishments of great Americans?

He doesn't have to believe it any more than anything else he says. He really is defective.

Person... man... woman... camera... TV.

Florida Man, driven to to distraction by the countdown to Shark Week, flip-flops like a beached walrus.

But look how he signed off with "#MAGA."

The 2020 Trump campaign slogan was supposed to be "Keep America Great," and the fact Trump can't use it because things suck bigly and in ginormous fashion is one hell of an admission that he's a failure. #self-own

Because he is dumber than a box of rocks and a barrel of hair combined.