ChrisWeigant.com » Polls

Romney's "Very Poor" Choice Of Words

Chris Weigant — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 23:31:02 +0000

Mitt Romney's gaffe last week (reproduced in full, above) is going to wind up the "gaffe that keeps on giving" for Barack Obama and the Democrats in this election cycle. Because the more Romney's comment is examined and dissected, the worse it looks for him. This could, in fact, be the defining moment for Mitt Romney as a national political presence. That phrase is often bandied about in politics, but I use it here in the full literal sense of "defining moment" -- a point in time which absolutely cements an image in the public mind of who you are and what you stand for as a politician. The image, quite obviously, is not a good one for Romney.

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2012

Chris Weigant — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 22:34:18 +0000

President Barack Obama continued a three-month upward swing in the polls in January, with his average job approval rating for the month ticking up 1.2 points, and his disapproval rate falling by exactly the same amount.

Mittmentum!

Chris Weigant — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 02:57:46 +0000

All in all, it's looking like whether Newt Gingrich wants to admit it yet or not, by Super Tuesday this race will likely be pretty much over. Of course, this year, predictions of such a nature have certainly had a way of turning out wrong, but it's safe to say that Mitt Romney is feeling pretty good about things right about now.

Predicting Florida: Newt's Petard

Chris Weigant — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 01:03:46 +0000

As we wend our way through the Republican primary season, at times predicting the outcome of a single state's race is very hard to do. At other times, it is actually pretty easy. Florida looks to be one of the latter.

Friday Talking Points [195] -- SOTU Review

Chris Weigant — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 00:27:08 +0000

Well, that was an eventful week in politics, wasn't it?

Pure Newtonium

Chris Weigant — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 23:32:13 +0000

What a difference a week makes, at least in the Republican primary contest.

Friday Talking Points [194] -- Out Of Touch

Chris Weigant — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 00:31:19 +0000

OK, to be completely honest, we just felt like beating up on some Republicans today.

Not-Romney Race Killing Not-Romney's Chances

Chris Weigant — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 00:42:19 +0000

If either Gingrich or Santorum (or even Perry) had managed to cement their status as the alpha "not-Romney" in the race at this point, they might have had a chance in that fabled "two-man race" (or, more properly, "two-man-plus-Ron-Paul race"). Adding Gingrich and Santorum's support in South Carolina easily shows that Romney could have been defeated here, if the field had narrowed. Florida would even be in play, likely.

Friday Talking Points [193] -- Run It Up The Flagpole

Chris Weigant — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 23:50:57 +0000

Not a whole lot has been happening in Washington, due to Congress being out on one of their countless month-long vacations. Not a whole lot of Democrats have been in the news, either, since the Republican primary season is sucking all the oxygen out of the political arena right now.

Old-School Editorializing

Chris Weigant — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 01:55:58 +0000

What struck me about New Hampshire's contest, being in the midst of historical research into such things, was the old-school nature of the Union Leader, a very conservative New Hampshire newspaper. It struck a lot of the media as interesting as well, but I didn't see anyone else commenting on such historical context.

Calling New Hampshire's Primary

Chris Weigant — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 23:11:32 +0000

Tomorrow, New Hampshire voters will go to their first-in-the-nation (don't-mention-Iowa-to-us-that's-a-caucus-dammit!) primary, and cast their votes in the Republican nominating contest. Which means it's time to haul out the old crystal ball and attempt to predict what's going to happen. If you hate these types of speculative wonktastic articles, then I strongly advise you to just close this article right now, and start a game of Angry Birds or something.

Friday Talking Points [192] -- Obama Picking His Fights

Chris Weigant — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 22:56:04 +0000

I have to say, while the Republicans have been having their three-ring primary circus, President Obama has been looking better and better. Both in comparison to the Republican field (of nightmares, so to speak), and also because Obama's been making progress on his own.

Obama Poll Watch -- December, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 23:07:32 +0000

President Obama had a pretty good month last month in the job approval polls, bettering his standing in both approval and disapproval by roughly three-fourths of percentage point. This may not sound like that big a deal, but it was the second straight month of solid gains for the president in both categories.

Romney Inevitable?

Chris Weigant — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 04:48:09 +0000

I thought I'd wait to write today until the Iowa results were in, because I haven't done one of these "snap judgment" sorts of things for a while. As I begin, roughly 85 percent of the votes have been reported.

Predicting Iowa

Chris Weigant — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 23:20:17 +0000

I realize everyone is probably already sick of hearing predictions about the Iowa Republican caucuses, and if this does indeed describe you then you should probably go watch a football game or something -- because that's exactly what we're going to do today: throw prognosticatory Hawkeye darts at the wall, and take our chances as we may.

My 2011 "McLaughlin Awards" [Part 2]

Chris Weigant — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 22:08:16 +0000

Her campaign so far has been the populist model for every other Democrat to mimic if they want to catch the wave of anger at Wall Street, and use it to their benefit. Without question, Elizabeth Warren is Destined For Political Stardom.

Obama Looking Stronger

Chris Weigant — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 23:58:23 +0000

President Obama is looking a lot stronger these days. Today, especially, the president emerges as the big winner in the showdown with John Boehner and the House Republicans. But Obama's been looking better and better all month, so Boehner caving should be seen as just the icing on the cake for Obama.

My 2011 "McLaughlin Awards" [Part 1]

Chris Weigant — Sat, 17 Dec 2011 01:36:37 +0000

As always, if you disagree with any (or all) of my picks, feel free to make your own in the comments. The categories are completely open to interpretation, and don't forget that there will be a "Part 2" column next week, so I can likely squeeze things I forgot in there.

Friday Talking Points [191] -- The White Knight Is Talking Backwards...

Chris Weigant — Sat, 10 Dec 2011 00:01:10 +0000

You know, it strikes me that this week may be one politics-watchers look back on when proving the thesis: "Anything can happen in politics, and usually does." I can picture seeing some wise pundit a few years down the road making the historical reference: "Yeah, but remember when Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul were leading the polls in the Iowa caucuses? Anything can happen... just anything..."

From The Archives -- Question For Obama: How About A Science-Based Drug Policy?

Chris Weigant — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 00:26:58 +0000

Two-and-a-half years ago, I wrote the following column, hoping that the Obama administration was going to live up to its promise to have a "science-based" drug policy. I spoke of two examples: medical marijuana, and the "morning after" pill. Today seemed a real good day to re-run this column.

Two Ron Paul Winning Scenarios

Chris Weigant — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 00:05:59 +0000

Since the 2012 Republican nomination fight has, so far been marked by its "anything could happen" nature, and since Ron Paul is still very much in the race in places like Iowa, let's explore how he could actually win the Republican nomination. This scenario is unthinkable for many inside-the-Beltway types and mainstream media types alike, but since it is the height of speculation season, a winning Paul scenario is worth considering. Two of them, in fact.

Obama Poll Watch -- November, 2011

Chris Weigant — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 22:34:27 +0000

This month Obama poll watchers got some good news, and some bad news. This was capped off, at the end of the month, by the Washington punditocracy making an incredibly stupid comparison between polling for Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter -- which we will address at the end of the column (complete with a "guess the president" graph quiz, for your amusement).

Friday Talking Points [190] -- Fine With Me!

Chris Weigant — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 23:47:47 +0000

So here's my proposal: Congress should pass a new schedule of fines. Each would be worded thusly: "the fine shall be $10 million, or 10 percent of the profits the company reported on its annual shareholders' report last year, whichever is larger." That'd be for a minor fine, of course, like a parking ticket. A bigger infraction would lead to, say, "50 percent," or "100 percent," or even higher.

Newt? Really?

Chris Weigant — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 23:15:38 +0000

To put this another way: it is time to start taking Newt Gingrich seriously, folks. Because he's got a solid chance of denying the Republican nomination from Mitt Romney. For better or worse, the possibility of Newt pulling this feat off is becoming a lot more concrete.

Republican Field Approaches Iowa And New Hampshire

Chris Weigant — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 23:55:16 +0000

The race for the Republican presidential nomination has certainly been anything but dull this year. Every time you turn around, it seems another name pops up as the alternative to Mitt Romney.

Friday Talking Points [189] -- Cut Congress' Pay!

Chris Weigant — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 23:40:41 +0000

The last time Members of Congress took a cut in pay was on April 1, 1933 -- the midst of a Great Depression. At a time of similar economic turmoil and record deficits, Congress should not require sacrifices of others without tightening its own belt.

Cain's Ridiculous Lefty Conspiracy Theory

Chris Weigant — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 01:30:37 +0000

Herman Cain is, if he can be believed, convinced that a conspiracy from the Left is responsible for the accusations of sexual harassment against him. This is, not to put too fine a point on it, ridiculous.

Friday Talking Points [188] -- Why Not Occupy The Media?

Chris Weigant — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 23:50:16 +0000

Like many Americans, I watched the events unfold in Oakland this week with some trepidation. Occupy Oakland tried two new tactics in protesting, and both were very successful at achieving a key goal -- that of getting your message across. Both the general strike and the temporary port shutdown were successful, in this regard. Later in the night, however, a group of jerks came close to ruining all this, by their criminal behavior.

Obama Poll Watch -- October, 2011

Chris Weigant — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 22:06:08 +0000

Barack Obama's job approval poll numbers in October were flat. Very flat. So flat, in fact, that he tied his own "flattest month ever" record, which he initially set back in November of last year. Obama's change in approval and disapproval combined last month totaled only a single tenth of a percent -- which is almost as flat as numerically possible.

Friday Talking Points [187] -- GOP's 22-Week Work Year

Chris Weigant — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 23:13:09 +0000

We'd like to begin today with an issue that we regularly get incensed about here, mostly because it flies under the radar of just about everyone -- including the entire media universe. Because for once, Democrats are making the attempt to use the issue to make some political hay (even though, in this regard, they're admittedly almost as bad as the Republicans).

The Rise And Fall Of Rick Perry

Chris Weigant — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 22:36:32 +0000

Two months ago, Perry led the field with 23 percent (to Romney's 16 percent second-place). Two months ago, Herman Cain was at five percent. Cain is now, to be blunt, eating Perry's lunch (insert your own pizza joke here). Even the Tea Party has all but abandoned Perry in favor of Cain, at this point.

Republicans Disrespect Iraqi Democracy

Chris Weigant — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 00:28:55 +0000

While predictable, this reaction is absolutely ridiculous. Every single talking point the Republicans came up with on the subject shows their almost complete lack of understanding of the basic concepts of democracy -- both here at home, and abroad. Which is why these points need refuting, one by one.

Republicans Attack Cain's 9-9-9 Plan

Chris Weigant — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 00:10:35 +0000

Last night, at yet another Republican presidential candidate debate, Herman Cain was roundly criticized for his simplistic 9-9-9 tax plan by his fellow Republicans. I have to admit, it was a little bizarre (in a "Nixon goes to China" sort of way) to see Republicans disparaging a tax plan for being "regressive." Ron Paul was unafraid to actually use this word, and while several other candidates avoided the term they in essence leveled the same charge: 9-9-9 would wind up increasing taxes on the poor and the middle class. Being Republicans, though, they didn't also speak of the other side of this coin -- the fact that 9-9-9 would lower taxes on the wealthy and really lower them on the ultra-wealthy. But still, it was odd enough to see candidate after candidate speak of their concern for the tax burden of the lower-class and middle-class, since this is usually a Democratic argument. Perhaps all those 99 Percenters out there demonstrating in the streets are getting through to the Republican politicians? Stranger things have happened.

Surveying GOP Field

Chris Weigant — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 23:24:48 +0000

The last time we wrote, Rick Perry had just jumped in the race. Since then, nobody else has gotten in, while two prominent names decided to sit this one out. Several candidates caught fire, and several also burned out (at least, poll-wise). So it goes, on the campaign merry-go-round.

When The People Lead

Chris Weigant — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 23:34:52 +0000

The idea behind that title is: "When the People lead, the leaders will follow." I read this on a bumpersticker a few decades ago, although I must admit I haven't bothered to research the phrase's origins. Wherever it came from, the idea is a simple (and amusing) one: when the so-called "leaders" aren't leading, then the People will step in and do it for them. Eventually, the "leaders" will wake up to what is going on and get on board themselves, pretending to have led the movement all along.

Obama Poll Watch -- September, 2011

Chris Weigant — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 22:49:34 +0000

Barack Obama's poll numbers in September were not good. In fact, they were pretty bad. Obama fans looking for good news will have to be content with the fact that at least Obama seems to be slowing the trend of his dropping numbers somewhat. This isn't exactly a turnaround for him, but September was a lot less of a drastic change than the three months which preceded it.

Mad As Hell

Chris Weigant — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 23:05:09 +0000

The protesters in the Occupy Wall Street movement have been getting criticized for not being focused enough, or not providing a list of demands, or not having leaders, or any number of other things by the media. But this can be forgiven, because the media are now at least paying attention, rather than just completely ignoring the protest. What surprises me is that the media (at least so far) haven't realized the frustration the protesters feel is the real story here. Call it free-floating rage, if you will. Or, even better, call it an updated Howard Beale moment.

And Then There Was One...

Chris Weigant — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 22:49:15 +0000

The media, of course, likely won't believe Christie -- at least until he says "No" several more times. Last week he gave a speech that created a media frenzy, and in the question-and-answer period responded to the twenty-millionth time he was asked exactly the same question that there was a "mashup" video available online of him saying "No" over and freakin' over again, and anyone who was interested in the answer should just go review this video. The media forgot to report this, and instead focused on what they decided was a more ambivalent answer to being asked the same question for the twenty-million-and-one-th time. "Christie Might Run!" was the headline they decided to go with. They were bored, quite obviously, and attacked with the ferocity of a shark pack with chum in the water. The fact that there actually was no actual chum didn't even seem to faze them.

Friday Talking Points [183] -- What I'd Call "Class Warfare"

Chris Weigant — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 23:26:06 +0000

Last week (as with this week) the subject de semaine was "class warfare." The comment which inspired this week's mini-rants contained a simple, repetitive concept: "When [something outrageous pushed by Republicans happens], nobody calls it 'class warfare'. Maybe we should."

GOP Field Wide Open?

Chris Weigant — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 23:34:00 +0000

The Republican presidential field continues to defy the expectations and easy story lines from the political media and the rest of the inside-the-Beltway crowd. Just last week, this was supposed to now be "a two-man race," but in a week's time the story has shifted to almost utter chaos. A new Fox News poll out shows that the easy read of the electorate the media was pushing last week is now completely wrong.

Memo To Rick Perry

Chris Weigant — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 22:38:06 +0000

Well, it's been great fun and all, but we are sorry to inform you that your viable candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination is hereby over.

Friday Talking Points [182] -- Class Warfare? Hardly.

Chris Weigant — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 23:12:19 +0000

A satellite is falling out of the sky, but it probably won't hit anybody. Probably. I personally got over this fear by listening to Creedence Clearwater Revival's "It Came Out Of The Sky" (which I heartily recommend, just on general principles).

Thinning The Debate Herd

Chris Weigant — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 22:03:42 +0000

At some point, television is going to have to start limiting which Republican candidates get invited to the debates. The herd of hopefuls must be thinned. This may happen soon, and tonight may be the last of the mega-debates of the season. One can only hope.

Elizabeth Warren's Campaign Takes Off

Chris Weigant — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 23:27:46 +0000

Elizabeth Warren is a polarizing figure. Liberals love her with a fierce passion. Republicans hate her with a fiery passion. What this means is that lots and lots of money from outside the state will be pumped into this race. The reason why Democrats are going to be watching this race closer than any other Senate race next year is easy to see: this may be the only state Democrats have a good chance to pick up a seat from the Republicans. The math isn't good for Democrats this time around in the Senate, and they are in danger of losing control of the chamber next year. Warren may be the sole bright spot in this environment for Democrats.

Friday Talking Points [181] -- Ads Obama Should Run

Chris Weigant — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 23:08:30 +0000

Since the president is not facing a primary challenger, and since the president has raised a whopping big pile of money already, and (most importantly) since the president has rediscovered the joys of speaking directly to the American people about his agenda -- why not buy some political ads, now?

Merkley's Right: CBO Should Score Jobs

Chris Weigant — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 22:52:55 +0000

Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon has just proposed a stunningly good idea: for all legislation which emerges from the joint committee charged with lowering the deficit, direct the congressional "scoring" referee not only to provide the numbers for the impact on the federal budget, but also to provide data on the impact on the unemployment rate and the jobs situation. This is such an excellent idea, both on its merits and politically, that it should immediately be supported by all Democrats. Because it would force the public debate to cover the entire scope of the proposals being offered up, and it would do so by providing the data the public most cares about right now: how will this create or destroy jobs?

Will Palin Go Rogue?

Chris Weigant — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 22:17:09 +0000

"What will Sarah do?" has been a question on the minds of many in the run-up to the Republican primary season next year. Definitively figuring out the answer to this question is a fool's game, however, because Sarah Palin continually shows the ability to surprise the punditocracy, the public, and the Republican establishment. Only Palin herself is ever confident of knowing what Sarah will do next, in other words.

Friday Talking Points [180] -- Give 'Em Hell, Barry!

Chris Weigant — Sat, 10 Sep 2011 00:02:02 +0000

President Barack Obama opened his re-election campaign last night with a wowzer of a speech to a joint session of Congress. But we'll get to that in detail in a minute. First, we must mark an important anniversary this week.

Obama Poll Watch -- August, 2011

Chris Weigant — Mon, 05 Sep 2011 23:19:20 +0000

For President Obama, August is indeed the cruelest month.

Friday Talking Points [179] -- Labor Daze

Chris Weigant — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 23:06:46 +0000

It surpasses all irony and actually enters into the realm of bitter humor that we're about to celebrate Labor Day when the unemployment rate remains at the sky-high level of 9.1 percent. There are millions of Americans who are not laboring for a paycheck this year, and they have nothing at all to celebrate.

Taking Rick Perry Seriously

Chris Weigant — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 00:12:57 +0000

This should force pundits across the political spectrum to re-evaluate Rick Perry's campaign. Instead of seeing through the lens of: "what my circle of friends thinks of Rick Perry's gaffes," this time the pundits should focus a little more closely on: "what Republican primary voters think of Rick Perry as a candidate." Because, so far, they seem to be flocking to support Perry -- to the visible detriment of Mitt Romney's standing in the polls.

Friday Talking Points [178] -- Phony Vacation Outrage

Chris Weigant — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 23:52:05 +0000

It's silly season in the political world, once again. And this year -- just like every year a Democrat occupies the White House -- an old favorite of a story is making the rounds. It involves some very thinly-veneered outrage, which is completely fabricated and hypocritical in the extreme.

GOP Field Tightens

Chris Weigant — Mon, 15 Aug 2011 23:32:42 +0000

Almost a full month ago, I placed four names in the "Frontrunners" category: Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney. This list hasn't changed at all, although Palin will fall back the next time around if she doesn't announce in the next three or four weeks (more on this in a bit).

Wisconsin's Vote More Important Than Iowa's

Chris Weigant — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 23:52:28 +0000

This week is being touted, in the political world, as a big week in the state of Iowa. There will be a nationally-televised Republican presidential candidate debate, and then a few days later the Ames Straw Poll will take place. The straw poll is (as always) being hyped in the media as the "first voting" in the upcoming presidential nominating contest. But the media should pay more attention to what is happening in Wisconsin this week, because rather than some "vote"-buying exercise (that always proves itself to be completely meaningless in the grand scheme of the presidential election process), Wisconsin could prove to be a much better weathervane in terms of predicting which way the political winds will be blowing, come next year.

Friday Talking Points [176] -- More Tea, Anyone?

Chris Weigant — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 23:34:41 +0000

With the conclusion of the debt ceiling "crisis," the media pivoted swiftly to their standard larger questions (to them, at any rate) about any political event these days: "Who won? Who lost?"

Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 00:17:39 +0000

The easy answer to the question: "Who 'won' the debt ceiling debate?" is: nobody. The public sees everyone involved in a more negative light than when the whole manufactured crisis began. Hopefully, politicians will take note of this, but it is quite likely they will not, and this new standard of brinksmanship will become the norm, every time the debt ceiling debate arises. There's a comforting thought, after the past month, eh?

Friday Talking Points [175] -- In The Darkest Depths Of Mordor

Chris Weigant — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 23:37:09 +0000

If I were a Hobbit, right about now I would be wondering just how the heck I wound up at the center of this Washington intraparty political fight, personally. What (I would ponder in my metaphorical Hobbit hole) had I done to any of these folks to deserve being dragged into this fracas?

Breaking Down The Polling Numbers

Chris Weigant — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 00:51:02 +0000

This is but one poll, to be sure. But most of the other polls I've seen this week back up the data presented here. Americans are turned off by Republican extremism, and open to Democrats' willingness to compromise. They are disgusted with the way the lawmakers in Washington are operating, and they may just take out this anger next year at the polls.

2012 Republican Presidential Field Update

Chris Weigant — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 22:24:31 +0000

In the past few weeks, one rising star has appeared in the Republican firmament (or two, depending on how you count them), and more than a few have begun fading -- perhaps permanently -- from center stage. But the field itself is not yet set (in terms of who is actually running and who will sit this one out), as the Republican Party continues to search for the perfect candidate to defeat President Obama. In fact, two of our four frontrunners this time around have not even announced their candidacy yet -- showing how volatile the entire race still remains.

Friday Talking Points [173] -- Obama 2.0?

Chris Weigant — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 23:50:53 +0000

Are we seeing the new model of Barack Obama's presidency? Is this (in the parlance of Silicon Valley) "Obama 2.0"?

Memory Lane: Footnotes From Yesterday's Article

Chris Weigant — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 23:46:48 +0000

Today, I'd like to excerpt some of those articles, as "footnotes" to yesterday's column. While copyright laws prevent me from just pasting whole articles in here, I am allowed fair usage excerpts, which is what you'll find below. The promise of the internet was supposed to be easy access to this sort of thing, but in recent years many media sites have locked off their archives behind paywalls, making it impossible to freely access this historical material.

Obama Poll Watch -- June, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 20:21:31 +0000

As many were predicting, President Obama's bounce in approval polls due to the death of Osama Bin Laden did not last very long. While Obama started the month still strongly riding the wave of public approval from the Bin Laden raid, this had mostly dissipated by the second week in June, and Obama's poll numbers flattened out after that. The plateau he hit at this point is slightly higher than he had before the "OBL bump," but that's about the only consolation for Obama fans in the June numbers.

Dismal Media Poll Numbers

Chris Weigant — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 23:50:59 +0000

The mainstream media love to use opinion poll numbers to highlight the American public's disapproval of certain persons and institutions. But there's one poll number they never seem to get around to adequately reporting: their own. There's a reason for this, and it is a simple one. The media doesn't report their own poll numbers because their poll numbers stink, and it's less embarrassing to just ignore this fact rather than to report it.

Afghanistan Withdrawal Polling

Chris Weigant — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 00:03:26 +0000

Some poll numbers are starting to come in on President Obama's announced withdrawal plans for American troops in Afghanistan. Overall, the polling shows public support is about as high as could be expected, given the fact that the opposition to Obama's plan is split between "pull more out faster" and "pull the troops out slower."

Bachmann Rising, Palin Fading?

Chris Weigant — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 23:15:44 +0000

Michele Bachmann's political fortunes are visibly on the rise. Mostly due to a well-received debate performance and a single good poll in Iowa, Bachmann is now the newest shining star to emerge on the stage of the Republican presidential nomination contest. Whether she later proves to be a flavor-of-the-week or whether she actually has staying power is still an open question, at this point. But what appears increasingly obvious is that Bachmann's rise is coming at the expense of another Republican woman's draw on the Republican primary electorate: Sarah Palin.

Friday Talking Points [170] -- Newt Loses Two, Huntsman Gains An "H"

Chris Weigant — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 23:13:30 +0000

Well, it's certainly been an eventful couple of weeks, hasn't it?

We're back on our regular weekly schedule here after returning home from our second trip this month (this one to Netroots Nation), after which I can firmly conclude that flying, these days, sucks. Big time. Sigh.

Predicting Obama's Afghanistan Announcement

Chris Weigant — Wed, 22 Jun 2011 19:54:07 +0000

Later today, President Obama is going to address the nation on the subject of the Afghanistan war. Specifically, he's going to make good on a promise made a year-and-a-half ago: to begin the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan next month. The big question everyone's been speculating about in the run-up to this announcement has been how big a reduction the president will announce.

The 2012 Republican Presidential Field

Chris Weigant — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 23:32:01 +0000

The Republican presidential field for the 2012 presidential election will be on full display this evening, as CNN airs the second nationally-televised candidate debate, this one from the early-voting state of New Hampshire. Since the first debate was a little light on heavyweight candidates, this is the first chance a lot of Republican primary voters will have to assess the biggest names in the race.

Friday Talking Points [169] -- Weiner Roast

Chris Weigant — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 22:40:52 +0000

Having just gotten back from a trip abroad where the news was dominated by the story of a politician facing severe consequences (and the end of his political career) for his sexual misconduct, I opened up the pages of the American news to find... well, pretty much the same thing.

Obama Poll Watch -- May, 2011

Chris Weigant — Fri, 27 May 2011 06:04:25 +0000

This month was the best month President Barack Obama has ever had in the polls, when measured as change over the previous month. If you count it one way (measured by absolute values) Obama's best month was technically the second month into his term -- when he was still enjoying his "honeymoon" period, and had 63.4 percent support from the public. But in terms of actually changing public opinion, May was indeed the best month Obama's had, by far.

Spinning Hochul's Special Election Win

Chris Weigant — Wed, 25 May 2011 23:39:41 +0000

Sometimes special elections are harbingers of things to come. And sometimes they are not. The tricky part is that nobody can tell the difference until long afterwards. Which certainly doesn't stop rampant speculation in the meantime. Last night, a Democrat pulled off a surprising upset in New York's 26th congressional district, in an election that was forced due to the resignation of a House member who got caught trolling the internet (with shirtless pictures, no less) for extramarital fun and games. What this signifies for the 2012 election is anyone's guess, at this point.

Republican Field Shaping Up

Chris Weigant — Mon, 23 May 2011 23:34:49 +0000

With all this frantic jumping in and out of the race, I thought it was time to take another look at the Republican field to see how it is shaping up. At this point, there are only a few holdouts left on the sidelines, as most of the bigwigs (and some decidedly "smallwigs") have made their intentions known.

The Ryan Budget Acid Test

Chris Weigant — Wed, 18 May 2011 22:41:56 +0000

It's rare for me to have a moment of pity for someone like Newt Gingrich, but I have to admit I'm feeling a little sorry for the guy this week. But before we delve into Newt's campaign problems in greater detail, it seems to me that most pundits are missing a big underlying new reality in the Republican Party. The focus has all been on Newt himself, what he said, and the subsequent ire directed at him by prominent Righties. But after the dust settles on the incident itself, people are going to notice the bigger fact this fracas has illuminated: Republicans are doubling down on Paul Ryan's budget rather than backing away from it, to the point where it has now become the acid test for Republicans in 2012. Which should be good news for Democrats.

Next Up: Rudy, Sarah, And Mitch

Chris Weigant — Mon, 16 May 2011 23:56:26 +0000

Well, that was a fun couple of weeks, wasn't it? For the past month or so, Donald Trump pretended to run for president and the media pretended he was serious (funniest headline I've seen today, from the Washington Post, "Donald Trump: I'm Fired!"). This entertaining period has now drawn to a close, much to the dismay of late-night comedians everywhere, as The Donald all but admits that the whole thing was a ratings and contract negotiations ploy to boost his "Apprentice" show on NBC. What it all means is that we can now take a look at who is yet to decide to jump into the Republican nomination race in earnest, and without such clownish distraction.

Friday Talking Points [167] -- Happy Friday The Thirteenth, Ron!

Chris Weigant — Sat, 14 May 2011 00:10:10 +0000

Ron Paul, apparently, is not a superstitious kind of guy.

The Full 2012 Republican Field

Chris Weigant — Thu, 12 May 2011 00:50:12 +0000

This has been an unusual year, in terms of presidential campaign politics, because (so far) it has run counter to the conventional wisdom. A standard column for any pundit to write every four years is the "Campaign Starting Even Sooner!" article, in which you decry the fact that the presidential race is beginning earlier and earlier each cycle. Not many of those articles have been written this time around.

Obama Poll Watch -- April, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 04 May 2011 22:29:32 +0000

The death of Osama Bin Laden on the second day of this month has overshadowed Obama's poll numbers from last month already. Obama's poll numbers in May are going to be a lot more interesting (to put it mildly) than his poll numbers from April are going to be. I realize all of this, but I still (for completeness' sake) feel obligated to put out this monthly report of where Obama stood last month with the public.

Trump Mania

Chris Weigant — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 23:57:15 +0000

Most intelligent political analysts' reaction (right, left, and center) to the news that Donald Trump may be considering a run for the presidency could be summed up as some version of: "You have got to be kidding me." Followed quickly by: "This is going to be so much fun!" But the real punchline to this joke of a candidacy was actually on the punditocracy, when Trump's poll numbers took off and soon put him either in the lead or very close to it for the Republican nomination. Republican voters, it seems, aren't following the punditocracy's lead on "The Donald."

Friday Talking Points [164] -- Skynet Attacks!

Chris Weigant — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 23:34:17 +0000

Again, this is not science fiction. It's a reality that already exists in the skies over at least two countries right now (and possibly more). Robots are killing humans. These robots are not acting on their own, they are fully controlled by human operators -- but the next generation of drone aircraft will not need a human to operate them (again, this is fact, not supposition). Robot artillery, robot tanks, and robot infantry cannot be all that far behind. War as the ultimate video game, in other words.

Reviewing America's Wars [Part 1]

Chris Weigant — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 00:19:58 +0000

Since the mainstream media has, quite obviously, abdicated all responsibility for reporting the news in any sort of journalistic fashion, I thought today would be a good day to review the current status of America's wars. Depending on how you count, there are now three (or four) of these wars which have been all but forgotten by the media these days.

Friday Talking Points [163] -- The Ads Just Write Themselves

Chris Weigant — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 00:33:35 +0000

Something the media largely missed in the midst of multiple budgetary battles this week was the fact that this is what bipartisanship looks like. The media, at least the "serious" ones, residing either inside the Beltway or in lower Manhattan, have long made much sport out of decrying "partisanship" -- at least, when Democrats act like Democrats, at any rate. Politicians are supposed to "work together" in some Utopian dreamland, to "get serious things done." It sounds great in an editorial, and all of that.

Happy Birthday, Romneycare!

Chris Weigant — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 23:59:02 +0000

One person who (assumably) won't be celebrating the fifth anniversary of Romneycare is Mitt Romney himself. This is because the entire issue has become the biggest albatross around his neck, politically, as he tosses his hat in the 2012 presidential ring. So don't look for him to be cutting a "Romneycare fifth birthday cake" today. In fact, as far as Romney is concerned, it would be just fine if everyone conveniently forgot about the issue altogether.

Friday Talking Points [162] -- Budget Standoff Continues

Chris Weigant — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 23:51:20 +0000

Sigh. What's depressing about the whole thing, to me at least, is how the entire knock-down-drag-out fight is merely the preliminary round. This whole government shutdown walk-to-the-brink-and-stare-into-the-abyss thing is nothing more than the warmup for the next budgetary battles -- which will be much bigger. The entire initial fight is about staking out ground for the next two fights -- raising the debt ceiling, and the 2012 budget. Nobody involved -- not the Tea Party Republicans, not President Obama, not John Boehner, not Harry Reid -- really cares all that much about how this particular round ends up. They're all stuck thinking: "If I give in now, they'll want more later" -- and they're all entirely correct.

The More Things Change...

Chris Weigant — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 00:14:50 +0000

The president and the newly-resurgent congressional Republicans at an impasse. Republicans put a bill on the table which was unacceptable to the White House, because of ideological "riders" added. The debt ceiling has to be raised. Republicans talk of reducing the size of government and deficit slashing. The president says they just want to make deep cuts in Medicare. The government shut itself down.

Obama Poll Watch -- March, 2011

Chris Weigant — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 22:06:53 +0000

President Obama's poll numbers slipped back a bit in March, bringing an end to his recent "bump." This was Obama's first bad month in a while, ending the positive trends Obama had set for the past two months in approval rating, and for the past five months in disapproval rating. In March, Obama lost all the ground he had gained in February, but still finished the month up from where he started the year. In a statistical twist, Obama's approval and disapproval numbers for March, 2011 exactly matched his numbers for March, 2010.

Friday Talking Points [159] -- Firing Up The Base

Chris Weigant — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 00:22:30 +0000

Here's a quick test for whether you are being fed speculation and fluff, or whether you are being told real information: Are there numbers involved? If so, then thank a scientist (and the editor or producer who allows such science on the air, I guess).

Democrats Play Some Offense

Chris Weigant — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 00:00:46 +0000

Are Democrats starting to play some offense? Three reports seem to lead to this conclusion, although at this point it is too early to tell what sort of effect this will have on the political landscape, for both the near future and for the 2012 election season. For now, it is refreshing to see Democrats pushing back on a few key issues, whatever their chances of legislative (or political) success happen to be. And the Democrats have picked three pretty good issues with which to launch this particular offensive -- the mortgage crisis, gay marriage, and taxing millionaires.

Friday Talking Points [158] -- In Non-Charlie-Sheen News...

Chris Weigant — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 00:38:46 +0000

And then -- you simply can't make this stuff up -- the anchor uttered the worst segue I think I've ever heard, possibly the worst in all of television news history: "We turn from the live feed of the tsunami in Japan to a police raid on Charlie Sheen's house in Los Angeles...."

On Tactics

Chris Weigant — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 00:23:22 +0000

To be fair, Democrats and Republicans alike are prone to doing this sort of thing. Both using political tactics such as these, and decrying them as being somehow "unfair." There's no monopoly by either party on this type of political hypocrisy. Yes, hypocrisy is the right word to use. Unless you'd prefer "political moral relativism of the worst kind," which is slightly more accurate but a little wordy. Either way, the equation reads: "This sort of thing is just fine when our side uses it, but downright evil when the other side does the same thing."

What "The American People" Really Want

Chris Weigant — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 01:58:14 +0000

Ever since the midterm congressional election last year, Republicans have been repeating the phrase "The American People" as often as they can, as a sort of mantra. This isn't all that unusual, since politicians claiming a popular mandate is par for the course in the political game. But Republicans are exhibiting a rather large amount of overreach when it comes to claiming what "The American People" really want the government to do (and not to do). This is going to be on full display in the coming weeks, as the budget fights heat up (finishing this year's budget, raising the debt ceiling, and tackling next year's budget). Most Republicans, especially those of the Tea Party persuasion, are firmly convinced they've got a sweeping mandate to slash federal spending in all sorts of areas. But they may be surprised by what the public really thinks about these issues, and what they do and do not support. Helpfully, a new poll put out by the Wall Street Journal and NBC shows a clear list of priorities for what the people really want to see cut, and what they don't.

Friday Talking Points [157] -- Eight Point Nine

Chris Weigant — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 01:06:23 +0000

While technically true ("job growth" is not the same thing as the unemployment rate), but that last sentence could also have been written as: "the unemployment rate fell at the fastest rate in over fifty years -- since 1958, to be exact." Both are true, and yet they tell very different stories -- "a grim nine percent" versus "fell at the fastest rate in over fifty years."

Obama Poll Watch -- February, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 21:17:33 +0000

In January, President Obama had the biggest improvement in his public approval rating of his entire presidency. In February, Obama consolidated and built on his January "bump," by posting his second-most-improved month ever. This turnaround has set the clock back for Obama over a full year (in terms of his overall polling numbers), to roughly where he was in December, 2009. All in all, not a bad month for the president.

Where Are All The Republican Candidates?

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 01:08:37 +0000

We are now roughly twenty months away from the next presidential election. But, rather surprisingly, only one Republican has announced he's running for president -- and he's not exactly a "top tier" candidate. So one has to wonder, where are all the Republicans?

Friday Talking Points [156] -- Fighting On Several Fronts

Chris Weigant — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 00:20:52 +0000

We've got so much to cover this week, we're going to have to move pretty quickly here. In international news, North Africa and the Middle East are still seething. The American news media, however, are (I actually heard this phrase being used by someone with a blowdried haircut the other night on television) experiencing "revolution fatigue." Seriously. They're bored with the whole storyline. Another dictator fell? Crowds of unarmed people being machine-gunned? Yawn. Don't we have an Oscars story we could run, instead?

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2011

Chris Weigant — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 05:48:41 +0000

Obama poll-watchers have been waiting to see a "bump" upward in public opinion job approval ratings pretty much ever since he took office. In two years, there really hasn't been one. Until now.

"State Of The Union" Predictions

Chris Weigant — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 01:01:52 +0000

Well, it's that time of year again. The time of year when pundits across the land helpfully (oh, so helpfully) offer the president advice on what he should say in his "State Of The Union" speech tomorrow. While I've engaged in this sort of thing before, this year I'd like to make predictions of what President Obama will say tomorrow night (as opposed to what I would like him to say). Which means I'm not endorsing any of this personally, merely attempting to predict what will be in tomorrow night's speech in advance.

Friday Talking Points [152] -- A Palin-Free Month?

Chris Weigant — Sat, 22 Jan 2011 00:48:07 +0000

With some regularity, this column excoriates the mainstream news media for all sorts of continued idiocy in the way it conducts its business. But every once in a while, we have to applaud them when they get something right. This week, Dana Milbank of The Washington Post deserves mentioning, for pledging to stay Palin-free for the month of February. Details on this in a moment.

So Long, Joe

Chris Weigant — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 02:36:33 +0000

Senator Joe Lieberman will announce tomorrow (from all reports) that he will not be seeking another term in the Senate. Democrats across the land are collectively heaving a large sigh of relief at the news. "So long, Joe," seems to be the prevailing sentiment, although if you listen closely you can hear the muttered "... don't let the door hit you on the way out," or other less-than-endearing sentiments.

Obama Hits A Milestone

Chris Weigant — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 01:15:50 +0000

Obama's mojo has apparently returned, to some extent or another.

Obama Poll Watch -- December, 2010

Chris Weigant — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 11:58:38 +0000

President Barack Obama had a mildly good month in the polls during December. Not a fantastic month, mind you; maybe not even a great month... but a mildly good month, nonetheless.