ChrisWeigant.com » 2016 Electoral Math

Electoral Math -- It's That Time Again...

Chris Weigant — Tue, 14 Jul 2020 01:58:34 +0000

Welcome to the first 2020 installment of our quadrennial series tracking the electoral math in the presidential race. We've done this three times previously, and (like pretty much everyone else in the political prediction game) failed miserably the last time around. Hey, two out of three ain't bad, right?

Final Electoral Math -- My 2016 Picks

Chris Weigant — Tue, 08 Nov 2016 00:38:52 +0000

Welcome to the final Electoral Math column of the 2016 election season. After a very quick rundown of the past week's polling activity, I'm going to dispense with my usual hedging and just go ahead and call every state for either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

2016 Electoral Math -- A Very Wild Ride At The End

Chris Weigant — Tue, 01 Nov 2016 00:51:07 +0000

The 2016 presidential election has been the wildest rollercoaster ride I can remember, and it looks like the final week will be even wilder than anyone imagined. So welcome back to Electoral Math, where we try to make some sort of sense of the state-level polling, measured over time.

2016 Electoral Math -- Two Weeks Out, Clinton's Looking Good

Chris Weigant — Tue, 25 Oct 2016 01:49:05 +0000

Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had a mixed week in the polls. Some states strengthened for both candidates, and some states weakened. For the most part, though, the race remained essentially unchanged.

2016 Electoral Math -- Trump Collapses

Chris Weigant — Tue, 18 Oct 2016 00:30:03 +0000

There is an excellent chance that when Republicans look back at the 2016 presidential election, this will be the week they'll point to when Donald Trump completely collapsed. This collapse may not be over yet, but it surely began in the wake of not only the disastrous Billy Bush tape but also the continuing stream of women publicly accusing a major party's presidential candidate of sexual harassment or sexual assault.

2016 Electoral Math -- Clinton Continues Her Rise

Chris Weigant — Tue, 11 Oct 2016 01:55:16 +0000

Even with that big caveat, Hillary Clinton had another good week in the polls. In fact, almost all the news was good news for Clinton and bad news for Donald Trump. Clinton continued to ride the wave from the first debate, and this week shows the public's reaction to Trump's tax returns being leaked, showing an almost-billion-dollar loss in a single year (so much for the "I'm a great businessman" thing...). Trump is defiant about not paying any federal income taxes for almost two decades, which certainly didn't help him any with public opinion.

2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary Begins Her Debate Bounce

Chris Weigant — Tue, 04 Oct 2016 02:00:58 +0000

The overall chart of the race for Electoral Votes (EV) looks better for Clinton than last time around, but I would caution that this chart doesn't show the underlying strengths (which we'll get to in a moment). As always, Clinton (blue) starts from the bottom, Trump (red) starts from the top, and whichever line crosses the middle (the 270 EV needed to win) would win the election if it were held today and all the polling was accurate.

2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary's Shrinking Lead

Chris Weigant — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 01:06:40 +0000

Hillary Clinton's lead in the race for Electoral College votes is shrinking. In fact, it has been shrinking for a solid month now. Two weeks ago (the last time I wrote one of these columns), this hadn't really benefited Donald Trump much. Now, however, Trump seems to be surging in the polls [...]

2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary Slides Back

Chris Weigant — Mon, 05 Sep 2016 23:41:03 +0000

It's time to take a look at the presidential horserace once again, using the smartest metric available: Electoral Votes (EV) charted over time. The last of these columns ran two weeks ago, and we've had lots of movement to cover since then, as 14 states shifted around on the map.

2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary Moves Up

Chris Weigant — Tue, 23 Aug 2016 00:42:04 +0000

Welcome back to the Electoral Math series, where we try to predict the outcome of the presidential race using the smartest metric: Electoral Votes (EV) charted over time. The first of this year's column series ran two weeks ago, and we've seen a lot of polling data since. A whopping 14 states moved around within the categories, but this much volatility is normal this early in the process.

Another Brick In The Big Blue Wall

Chris Weigant — Fri, 19 Aug 2016 00:22:36 +0000

It is time to consider the future of the Big Blue Wall. The Big Blue Wall, for those who haven't heard the term before, is the list of states that have voted consistently Democratic in the past six elections. They voted for Bill Clinton twice, against George W. Bush twice, and then were part of Barack Obama's winning coalition twice as well. I've written about the Big Blue Wall previously in more detail, I should mention, for anyone interested.

Contemplating A Landslide

Chris Weigant — Wed, 17 Aug 2016 00:13:03 +0000

Back in May, I wrote an article that laid out five optimistic paths to victory for Hillary Clinton. Two of these paths were quite close, one was the equivalent of Barack Obama's 2008 win, and two were wildly optimistic (at least, at the time and given the available polling data). The last two projected Clinton winning with either 401 or 471 electoral votes.

Electoral Math -- The Best Way To Track The Race

Chris Weigant — Tue, 09 Aug 2016 00:47:10 +0000

Welcome to the kickoff of my quadrennial "Electoral Math" column series. I've been writing these since 2008, because I've always been astonished that no other statistics guru out there seems to present the presidential race in the way that makes the most sense -- by Electoral College vote, charted over time.

Five Optimistic Electoral Maps For Clinton

Chris Weigant — Tue, 10 May 2016 00:21:41 +0000

Last week, the Washington Post ran an article titled "Five Not-Totally-Crazy Electoral Maps That Show Donald Trump Winning." The article was a cautionary note to Democrats who are blithely assuming Hillary Clinton will easily beat Donald Trump this November. In it, the authors provide five maps that show Trump beating Clinton, by winning anywhere from 270 Electoral College votes (the minimum necessary to win) up to 283 Electoral College votes. I'd like to answer them back with five maps of my own, which show scenarios that are a lot more likely to become reality. I do understand why the Post authors wrote their article -- Democrats getting complacent about their chances of victory is indeed a danger this election cycle, and who knows how many crossover votes are going to happen (in either direction)? But at the same time, it is easy to see the monstrous advantage any Democratic candidate for president now enjoys, and it's a lot easier to see a very wide and gentle path to victory for Hillary Clinton.