Comments on: Electoral Math -- Six Weeks To Go http://www.chrisweigant.com/2024/09/24/electoral-math-six-weeks-to-go/ Reality-based political commentary Thu, 23 Apr 2026 05:41:05 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Kick http://www.chrisweigant.com/2024/09/24/electoral-math-six-weeks-to-go/#comment-211839 Kick Thu, 26 Sep 2024 10:45:58 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=25573#comment-211839 nypoet22 3 <i>i wouldn't necessarily categorize republican voters who've been voting for Democrats as "moderate." </i> You're right. That term "more moderate Republicans" was my attempt to find a not-so-disparaging term that would encompass your basic "regular" Republicans. I should have just cut to the chase in my usual and customary manner. <i>i think they are mostly traditional conservatives who consider the maga movement to be guano crazy, but intend to return to the GOP eventually. </i> Yes, exactly... the traditional and Never Trumpers, the non-batshit-crazy-drank-the-orange-Kool-Aid, and the not gullible MAGA minions who haven't got a clue they're in a cult. The "normies." :) nypoet22
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i wouldn't necessarily categorize republican voters who've been voting for Democrats as "moderate."

You're right. That term "more moderate Republicans" was my attempt to find a not-so-disparaging term that would encompass your basic "regular" Republicans. I should have just cut to the chase in my usual and customary manner.

i think they are mostly traditional conservatives who consider the maga movement to be guano crazy, but intend to return to the GOP eventually.

Yes, exactly... the traditional and Never Trumpers, the non-batshit-crazy-drank-the-orange-Kool-Aid, and the not gullible MAGA minions who haven't got a clue they're in a cult. The "normies." :)

]]> By: nypoet22 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2024/09/24/electoral-math-six-weeks-to-go/#comment-211831 nypoet22 Wed, 25 Sep 2024 22:54:56 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=25573#comment-211831 @kick, i wouldn't necessarily categorize republican voters who've been voting for Democrats as "moderate." i think they are mostly traditional conservatives who consider the maga movement to be guano crazy, but intend to return to the GOP eventually. @kick,
i wouldn't necessarily categorize republican voters who've been voting for Democrats as "moderate." i think they are mostly traditional conservatives who consider the maga movement to be guano crazy, but intend to return to the GOP eventually.

]]> By: Kick http://www.chrisweigant.com/2024/09/24/electoral-math-six-weeks-to-go/#comment-211829 Kick Wed, 25 Sep 2024 14:45:27 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=25573#comment-211829 nypoet22 1 <i>in 2022 the polling error had a significant swing in the other direction, and democrats outperformed expectations. </i> Since 2022, Democrats are demonstrably outperforming the polls due to the fact that independents and more moderate Republicans have been increasingly voting for Democrats. Hence, no Red wave/tsunami if a chunk of your voters are no longer your voters. <b>If</b> this holds up through 2024, they really ought to give it an official name, proper noun: "The Dobbs Effect." :) nypoet22
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in 2022 the polling error had a significant swing in the other direction, and democrats outperformed expectations.

Since 2022, Democrats are demonstrably outperforming the polls due to the fact that independents and more moderate Republicans have been increasingly voting for Democrats. Hence, no Red wave/tsunami if a chunk of your voters are no longer your voters.

If this holds up through 2024, they really ought to give it an official name, proper noun: "The Dobbs Effect." :)

]]> By: nypoet22 http://www.chrisweigant.com/2024/09/24/electoral-math-six-weeks-to-go/#comment-211828 nypoet22 Wed, 25 Sep 2024 13:02:11 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=25573#comment-211828 what i'm most curious about when it comes to polling, is how close to accurate the polling data turn out to be. in 2016 and 2020 there was massive underestimation of trump's support in certain places. in 2022 the polling error had a significant swing in the other direction, and democrats outperformed expectations. over the course of this eight year span, pollsters have been scrambling to put together new and better methodologies, but at least so far they haven't appeared to find a recipe for better predictive polling in today's society. have the polls gotten any better this time, or are we in for another surprise? what i'm most curious about when it comes to polling, is how close to accurate the polling data turn out to be. in 2016 and 2020 there was massive underestimation of trump's support in certain places. in 2022 the polling error had a significant swing in the other direction, and democrats outperformed expectations. over the course of this eight year span, pollsters have been scrambling to put together new and better methodologies, but at least so far they haven't appeared to find a recipe for better predictive polling in today's society. have the polls gotten any better this time, or are we in for another surprise?

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