Comments on: Friday Talking Points -- SCOTUS Season Continues

By: Elizabeth Miller

Elizabeth Miller — Sun, 16 Jun 2024 12:09:49 +0000

I wonder what impact there will be as a result of Trump's new tack of telling his supporters to vote anyway they can - early, by mail, on election day, whatever way is open to them.

Now, THAT is scary!

By: nypoet22

nypoet22 — Sun, 16 Jun 2024 01:50:01 +0000

with due respect to CW and his categories, here are donald's realistic chances by state:

in the bag for trump:
alaska, montana, wyoming, utah, idaho, north dakota, south dakota, nebraska, kansas, oklahoma, texas, louisiana, arkansas, missouri, iowa, tennessee, mississippi, alabama, kentucky, indiana, west virginia, south carolina. (that's 22)

highly probable for trump, but might go biden if there's a massive shift of some sort:
north carolina, florida, ohio

a bit of a miracle that they went for biden in 2020, but with lots of luck and some great economic news could maybe go blue again: georgia, arizona

true toss-ups: wisconsin, nevada, pennsylvania, michigan

states biden has a good chance to win again, but a loss is very possible and could mean disaster: new hampshire, virginia, colorado, new mexico, minnesota

the remaining 14 states and DC are pretty solidly blue.

By: MtnCaddy

MtnCaddy — Sat, 15 Jun 2024 23:44:55 +0000

@poet

Perhaps you’re right. But post-J6, post-Dobbs, post GOP House dis function and Trump’s convictions (the first, and this was the weakest case) I don’t see where Trump can find the votes to win. I’m thinking Reagan level landslide.

By: nypoet22

nypoet22 — Sat, 15 Jun 2024 21:50:20 +0000

@caddy,

Be realistic. There are 21 states who would vote for a steaming pile of dog poop if it had an R after its name.

By: MtnCaddy

MtnCaddy — Sat, 15 Jun 2024 19:23:02 +0000

[2]

I strongly disagree. No way voters “forget” and I.V.F. will join abortion and contraception front and center in the public consciousness come November. Election results 2018, ‘20, the “red tsunami” of ‘22, ‘23 to present demonstrate that a majority of
voters have become significantly more sophisticated, by not punishing Dems for inflation, for example. I like oh to ki of this as balancing out the insanity on the right wing.

Furthermore, Independents like their vote to count in the general election. Trump likes winning the Republican nomination and skipping the general election. Plus half of Independents think Trump should drop out post convictions. Trump will win 15 states, max.

By: nypoet22

nypoet22 — Sat, 15 Jun 2024 15:49:51 +0000

@speak2,

yikes! if that's where they're going, how much further is it to legalizing rape and statutory rape?

By: dsws

dsws — Sat, 15 Jun 2024 14:02:48 +0000

My guess is that it's nowhere near 80% that actually have an opinion about IVF. If you ask people whether it should be available, sure. If you don't bias the question to favor one answer over the other, having the number of "yes" responses be four times the number of "no" responses seems about right. But asking a question inherently creates a bias in favor of getting an answer. I don't think IVF is a big political loser for the authoritarians. They can pass a law that makes it impossible to get IVF, and very few voters will notice — and of those who do, most of the effect will be authoritarian fanatics being pleased that their political coalition is getting something done.

By: Speak2

Speak2 — Sat, 15 Jun 2024 05:24:14 +0000

Feel better soon, CW.

They won't even be content with IVF and contraception: No-fault divorce is on their chopping block.