Trump is going to get tsunamied come November. This could finish the breaking up of the GOP.

While I agree that this is most likely to transpire, I have this creeping feeling that it won’t be that easy.

I cannot get Trump claiming that he didn't need voters to vote for him to win the election out of my head. I fear that Trump is speaking the silent part out loud, and we are failing to take him at his word. Trump has a long history of telling us what his crimes are, but it gets ignored in all of the lies that we are constantly inundated with. Has the GOP taken control of enough State Assemblies to overturn the popular vote? Trump's claiming that he doesn't need votes to win the election means that there are only a small number of ways that he could win. We have to make sure all of those other ways are secured or we might be screwed.

Interesting take.

And I think that a major purpose of the war is to present neighboring countries with a vivid example of what will happen to them if they resist the imperial yoke.

But, it's not a very vivid example of what will happen, though. They don't have a lot to be afraid of, in other words. Unless Putin is not acting decisively in Ukraine for a reason...?

Trump is going to get tsunamied come November. This could finish the breaking up of the GOP.

Estimates of enemy casualties tend to err on the high side, for reasons ranging from scared recruits seeing more enemies than are really present to double counting of people who are injured but return to combat and get injured again.

One horrible source of discrepancy in this case is the conscription of Ukrainians from the occupied parts of the country. Ukraine counts everyone who dies or is wounded on the Russian side, whether they were actually issued weapons or not. Then there are the DPR/LPR troops who really were Ukrainian separatists.

--

I don't think the war was stupid from Putin's perspective. I think he knew that there was corruption that would only be exposed by combat. I think the war is genocidal against the ethnic minority groups in Russia who are disproportionately dying in the service of the wannabe empire: those deaths count in favor of the project, by his reckoning. And I think that a major purpose of the war is to present neighboring countries with a vivid example of what will happen to them if they resist the imperial yoke. And I'm pessimistic about US politics: there's a worse than 50-50 risk of a second Trump term, at which point the US is more likely to aid Russia than Ukraine. Finally, I think the lives and prosperity of ethnic Russians count for very little to him, compared to even a slim chance of being remembered by history as a great conqueror.

Ukraine is fighting to eject Russia from all her country, nothing more and nothing less.

What do bravado or hyperbole have to do with anything?

Nothing, really. I was just thinking about how my comments may come across and why they are often so completely misinterpreted, aside from striking a nerve or highlighting an inconvenient truth.

When it comes to Putin and his stupid and unnecessary war of choice in Ukraine, for example, one might think I was a big supporter based on the responses I have received here since this war began.

Granted, I have focused my ire on the US and NATO and even a bit on Ukraine but that is because I actually care about all three.

Ukrainian losses in Avdiivka were horrible. But taking such losses is exactly what Ukraine needs to do, wherever Russia is willing to fight at a loss ratio more favorable to Ukraine than the ratio of their populations.

Ukraine doesn't say what its losses are but they do claim that Russian losses top 400,000. Does that seem a realistic figure to you?

I hope you're not saying that this war should continue so long as that loss to population ratio is favourable to Ukraine! Because that can't end well, any way you slice it.

I could eliminate the bravado and the hyperbole and the general over-the-top nature of my comments but, where would be the fun in that? :)

I will let you know when your anemic "level of discourse" gets anywhere near that neighborhood; until then, take comfort in the fact that there is no evidence whatsoever that anyone in the commentaries is confusing your mountain of bullshit with anything approaching "bravado" -- far from it -- and that's not hyperbole, folks, not a joke... literally.

Nice attempt at backpedaling, Elizabeth. *shakes head*

Ukrainian losses in Avdiivka were horrible. But taking such losses is exactly what Ukraine needs to do, wherever Russia is willing to fight at a loss ratio more favorable to Ukraine than the ratio of their populations.

It really is a shame, Kick, that you keep using this blog space for such repetitive nonsense.

I can certainly stop quoting your "repetitive nonsense" if it'll make you feel better, and you could indubitably eliminate that "shame" you're admitting if you'd cease "using this blog space" to post your unnecessary tiresome nonsensical propaganda disinformation.

At our level, discourse about geopolitics shouldn't be taken so personally.

There too, I can offer some solace during your demonstrable time of individual introspection and obvious need: I see not a shred of evidence in this commentary or a plethora of others of anyone who is taking your level of geopolitical discourse either seriously or personally.

Disagreement and debate are healthy responses and I will continue to hope that sort of discussion can indeed take place here.

While you are doing all that hoping and praying that "Biden is right about this one," could you kindly, mercifully put in a request that you be granted three things of obvious necessity: The serenity to accept the things you cannot change, courage to change the things you can, and wisdom to know the bloody difference? Rhetorical question with my apologies to Reinhold Niebuhr for the intentional lift, but unrealistic utopianism actually is patently ineffectual when dealing with political realism.

seconded.

I also take offense that you think you are the only one who cares about Ukraine when you won’t do your homework on her.

At our level, discourse about geopolitics shouldn't be taken so personally. Disagreement and debate are healthy responses and I will continue to hope that sort of discussion can indeed take place here.

Clearly, I am the only one who contributes to this blog who really cares about the welfare of Ukraine and Ukrainians and about a future where Ukraine is an independent state and in control of all of its sovereign land.

Clearly, you are the "only one who contributes to this blog" who is batshit enough to believe your definition of success is the correct one. The Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine was adopted on July 16, 1990, during the collapse of the USSR.

If you'd like to understand how batshit you sound, simply replace the words "Ukraine" and "Ukrainians" with "Russia" and "Russians." Here, let me help you:

Clearly, I am the only one who contributes to this blog who really cares about the welfare of Russia and Russians and about a future where Russia is an independent state and in control of all of its sovereign land.

~ Elizabeth Miller

*
Now factor in the indisputable fact that Russia believes Ukraine is part of its "sovereign land."

I am also the only one here who condemns the self-centered and duplicitous behavior of the West toward Ukraine.

You are definitely alone in your ignorance regarding this subject.

If the West really cared about Ukraine, it would have tried harder to prevent this war in the first place and, barring that, would have acted decisively in support of Ukraine's winning effort to push back Russia from Kyiv in the first few weeks and months of the war and used that victory to negotiate a Russian withdrawal. None of that was ever imagined, let alone tried and the war in Ukraine is what it is.

The misinformation you regurgitate here on endless loop surpasses FUBAR.

You've had ample time; either educate yourself or continue wallowing in ignorance.

You're wrong regardless of whether or not any of that happens.

^^^ This! ^^^

When Ukraine is able to beat Russia, with the help of the US/NATO and regain all of its territory including Crimea and US/NATO helps it to rebuild its country ... then you can claim that Biden was right and I was wrong.

You seem blissfully unaware that you can lose some battles but still win a war without achieving some asinine definition of "success" as defined by Elizabeth Miller.

The United States and their allies occupied and rebuilt Japan into the thriving democracy we see today after World War II. Winning!? Nope. No way. *buzzer* That was, in fact, losing.

In the meantime, I will hope and pray that Biden was right on this one but it doesn't look good.

It would be a better use of your time to actually educate yourself regarding history... or choose to keep up the prattling nonsense that Ukraine could somehow have "won" by appeasing the Dictator who doesn't believe it even exists.

Repeat the following 100 times: Russia is the aggressor.

If you're going to continue prattling on and on about "how to succeed at war," at least stop the asinine right-wing DARVO* propaganda bullshit.

________________________

*DARVO: Deny, attack, reverse victim and offender.

I can translate prattling Trumpian-speak for you.

"I STAYED OUT OF THE RACE, I WANT TO BE LOVED!"

Translation: You MAGAts and wannabes hear me now and believe me later. I know I couldn't endorse her because it would torpedo her campaign, but that woman loser didn't show me enough loyalty, and therefore the Trump cult refused to show up and vote for her. If she had only genuflected every time my name was mentioned, she would obviously have easily won that NY-03 special election. Thanks to this shitty recruit here, every one of you MAGAts need to drop down and give me 20."

~ Translating the Misogynistic Arrogant Grifting Asshat commonly referred to as Donald Trump

*
The unfortunate truth is (or fortunate truth, depending on your perspective), the Republican Party has DickTater (think Emperor) problem. In some areas of America, a Republican candidate cannot win without his support (think Wyoming and Liz Cheney), and in other areas candidates cannot win with his endorsement. No one will acknowledge the DickTater is stark freaking naked except for his diaper, commonly referred to as "the emperor has no clothes."

You're welcome. :)

https://www.brookings.edu/events/evaluating-nato-enlargement-since-the-end-of-the-cold-war/

In fact, Democrats actually had a pretty good week all around, so yet again we find ourselves without a candidate for the Most Disappointing Democrat Of The Week

Mazi Pilip has been a registered Democrat since 2012 and just lost NY-03 by 8 points to your MIDOTW. One coin... two sides. :)

If a child in the state wants to give birth under the circumstances of being a victim, that's certainly their prerogative, but if they don't, the neanderthals in Missouri are just fine with teenagers who cannot give their consent to anyone they are not legally wed being forced to give birth against their will even if a pregnancy resulted from statutory or forcible rape by a date, a stranger, or even a family member... but they draw the line at a 12-year-old?

*vomit alert*

It isn't illegal to pay someone for silence unless (among other things) it's done to obstruct justice or commit a fraud against one or more persons. The falsification of business records to cover up the payments is what is illegal, and the conspiracy to "catch-and-kill" in order to create a cover-up is illegal.

Bottom line: It's another New York fraud case involving falsification of business records actually regarding multiple affairs and multiple cover-ups... but criminal.

Actually, every word after "trial" in that previous sentence is superfluous in a way... but it's still fun to point out.

We are living history. I cannot imagine Trump securing a pardon should he be found guilty for this conspiracy to commit fraud, and I also cannot imagine a jury finding of "not guilty" based on the evidence. It'll be interesting to see Trump's lawyers' attempt at a defense, considering all the physical evidence of fraud and when one of his co-conspirators has literally already served prison time at the behest of Trump's very own Department of Justice. If the DOJ isn't going to prosecute Trump for his role, the State of New York should be applauded for its attempt because no one is above the law.

A hung jury... sure. Exoneration? Not bloody likely.

Naw, just voicing an opinion. Which is what this blog is all about, no? :)

Do you honestly believe that the Ukrainians have chosen to be at war with Russia? It's been about Russia declaring war and invading their country. Why do people blame everyone for causing this war except the one country that is responsible for the fighting?

No, I believe Putin chose war and he takes the lion's share of blame for it, if not all of it. And, I hope he gets all that he deserves for making that choice and for any number of other actions he has taken since becoming the leader of Russia.

The West has pushed for Ukraine to be in NATO knowing that would never happen nor would it be in Ukraine's best interests. Then the West provided Ukraine with just enough support to prevent the loss of their entire country to Russia. I'd like to know why people seem to be okay with sacrificing Ukraine on the Western altar of weakening Russia. Because what is happening on the ground, after Ukraine's initial impressive victory in pushing the Russians away from Kyiv and back to the Eastern front, has been entirely predictable for reasons that you point out.

If none of that happens, and Ukraine is not invited to join NATO, then what will the war have been for and why would you not have tried diplomacy before the war.

Do you honestly believe that the Ukrainians have chosen to be at war with Russia? It's been about Russia declaring war and invading their country.

Why do people blame everyone for causing this war except the one country that is responsible for the fighting? The West provided Ukraine with weapons and funding to help repel the Russian aggression. Anything more would require a nation to declare war with Russia — something no country wants to do.

Clearly, I am the only one who contributes to this blog who really cares about the welfare of Ukraine and Ukrainians and about a future where Ukraine is an independent state and in control of all of its sovereign land. I am also the only one here who condemns the self-centered and duplicitous behavior of the West toward Ukraine.

If the West really cared about Ukraine, it would have tried harder to prevent this war in the first place and, barring that, would have acted decisively in support of Ukraine's winning effort to push back Russia from Kyiv in the first few weeks and months of the war and used that victory to negotiate a Russian withdrawal. None of that was ever imagined, let alone tried and the war in Ukraine is what it is.

You're wrong regardless of whether or not any of that happens.

For the longest time, the BBC, relying on UK defense intel, said that Russia was running out of ammunition, so... I guess we take the report I linked to above for what it's worth.

When Ukraine is able to beat Russia, with the help of the US/NATO and regain all of its territory including Crimea and US/NATO helps it to rebuild its country ... then you can claim that Biden was right and I was wrong.

In the meantime, I will hope and pray that Biden was right on this one but it doesn't look good.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68322527

I have concluded that Chris is consciously avoiding all things geopolitical except for mentioning things just in passing.

Which is quite alright as his is not that kind of blog.

Yeah. Like about Ukraine.

Well, it wouldn't be the first time that Biden has proven me wrong. :)

Moving right along,

Roses are red
And violets are blue
The border deal’s dead
All because of you

There, fixed it.

That's pretty amazing!

I, too, am still very disappointed that Biden didn't snatch up that opportunity - especially now at a time when he really needs to be out there communicating with the voters about any number of issues.

I miss the days when you couldn't get Biden to stay away from an opportunity like this or shut him up from talking policy. Sadly, those days are gone, forever.

Still, it's hard to understand why he isn't taking concerns over his age as an opportunity, too. I'd like to see him being in his old - I mean, er, young - self-deprecating form and having some fun with the fact that he'll be the oldest president ever and may hold that title forever!