Anxious to hear how you think the war in Ukraine will end...

So, Kick, I'm curious ... how do you see the current war in Ukraine ending?

*thinking*

I'll think more about it and get back to you later.

It basically began when Manafort's Russian-backed candidate was ousted by Ukrainians from power in 2014 and escalated when Manafort's Russian-backed candidate was ousted from power by Americans in 2021. Yes, of course, it's much more complicated than that, but if Putin was against a NATO nation on his Eastern border, then it was a fool's errand to attempt to subjugate Ukraine and thus become the self-fulfilling creator of that same said scenario.

Recent history. You don't always have to go back to square one, you know. ;)

Tell that to Putin.

Try again.

The blog is archived, Canada; however, I will clarify that statement:

You've claimed multiple times in the past that if Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO were taken off the table of NATO that Putin wouldn't have invaded. It seems like progress, however plodding, that you've at least seemingly abandoned your heretofore prior insistence.

You've blamed Biden, NATO, and Zelenskyy collectively and Biden singly on multiple occasions on this blog for not negotiating with Putin's demands, specifically: Russia demands a legal guarantee that Ukraine be denied NATO membership, which is bullshit on its face because Russia knows damn well that NATO has never excluded potential membership for any European country, including Russia. This wasn't removed from the table by Biden, NATO, or even Zelenskyy, it was never on the table from the jump. Putin knew this. You? Not so much.

All nations should be free to choose with whom they align. Except Canada. Using Putin's logic, is it not a fact that you Canadians primarily speak English, and didn't we North Americans claim our independence from the Crown? Hence and therefore, Biden hereby immediately demands Canada's subjugation to the geopolitical whims of these United States and declares you have never really been a country but actually part of North America and therefore America. Pay no attention to those hundreds of thousands of troops and shit-tons of ordnance amassing at your Southern border. You will immediately agree to Biden's demands or we will be forced to defend ourselves against your aggression. Your dream of a Biden presidency is nigh.

So, to recap: All nations should be free to choose with whom they align. That thing you keep claiming Biden, NATO, and Zelenskyy took off the table was never actually on the table just because Putin demanded it be negotiated.

Not a rhetorical question. Ahem.

Manageable regional security crisis!? Since when?

Recent history. You don't always have to go back to square one, you know. ;)

Not taken off the table? You've claimed multiple times in the past that if Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO were taken off the table that Putin wouldn't have invaded. It seems like progress, however plodding, that you've at least seemingly abandoned your heretofore prior insistence.

Try again.

Biden, with all his talk of Ukraine's potential NATO membership being off the table, regime change in Moscow and Armageddon, turned a manageable regional security crisis into a bloody war which has spurred on multiple global crises with distinct existential bents.

Manageable regional security crisis!? Since when? Rhetorical question, but thank you for confirming your simplistic view of a complex issue that long predates Biden's presidency... and date of birth.

Would Putin have launched his invasion of Ukraine if Ukraine's aspirations to be in NATO was not taken off the table? Who the Hell knows!

Not taken off the table? You've claimed multiple times in the past that if Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO were taken off the table that Putin wouldn't have invaded. It seems like progress, however plodding, that you've at least seemingly abandoned your heretofore prior insistence.

i thought boo-yah was navy. or was it hoo-yah? HUA? isn't army something else?

Yes, it's "hooyah" primarily Navy SEALs

This isn't confusing at all:

Hoorah/Oorah: Marines

HUA: Airforce -- Heard Understood Acknowledged

HUA: Army -- Head Up Ass

Hooah: Army -- definitely make no "R" sound unless you're HUA (not to be confused with Airforce HUA)

There ya go, Kick!

Great work.

Here's a little work product to match the kind of research that you often post.

The facts of history should be learned, lest they be ignorantly repeated.

In fact, I've gotten in the habit of checking the last column's Weigantia to see what you've added at the bottom.

What could it hurt? :)

The possibility of future NATO membership was NOT the reason for this war! Long story short Putin started the war almost nine years ago by invading Crimea.

Not coincidentally when Viktor Yanukovych fled Ukraine for the safety of Russia, Putin ordered Russian Special Forces into Crimea and began his military coup on the pretext of rescuing his ally.

The month in history: February 2014

Once independent Ukraine has been run at least half of the time by pro-Russian crooks (see Yukanovich, Victor) and while better than Russia, much work remains to reduce corruption down to Western democracy levels (see Dark money in American politics.)

Remember that the pro-Putin Viktor Yanukovych was the handiwork of Paul Manafort and Rick Gates. It was while working for Yanukovych and his Party of Regions that Manafort and Gates accumulated tens of millions of dollars which they hid from America's taxing authorities by laundering it through a series of foreign entities and bank accounts.

Nice post, MC. :)

Palin was seen as the future of the GOP, a fresh new face that had attracted an oversize following based on nothing but sheer personality and charisma. For the next few years, people avidly sought her endorsement and always checked in to see what Palin thought about the next election. And then it just all... stopped.

It came to an end when Silly Sarah announced she was "seriously interested" in running for president in 2016 and shortly thereafter delivered an incoherent rant at the Iowa Freedom Summit. Republicans who always defended her finally admitted Democrats were right about her all along.

The month in history: January 2015

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6phMonavhw

So we would urge all publications to immediately start referring to her as "Senator Kyrsten Sinema ($-AZ)." If the shoe fits....

Brilliant. This is a perfect designator for $inema. :)

Good night, sleep tight and don’t let the bedbugs bite.:D

Likewise the trend away from fossil fuels ...

Ha! If the, ah, "trend away from fossil fuels" continues as it is, we're all doomed. Ahem.

The first climate apocalypse song ...

Ukraine is a mess. It will be a mess for well beyond the foreseeable future. And, like other similar messes, the US will own it.

Biden, with all his talk of Ukraine's potential NATO membership being off the table, regime change in Moscow and Armageddon, turned a manageable regional security crisis into a bloody war which has spurred on multiple global crises with distinct existential bents.

Would Putin have launched his invasion of Ukraine if Ukraine's aspirations to be in NATO was not taken off the table? Who the Hell knows! But, Biden damn sure guaranteed we'd never find out. And, for what!? Or do you suppose that Ukraine is coming out of this mess in better shape than it was before? That's a nice dream.

And, how long will this war go on before it finally ends by way of negotiated settlement?
I have never said I agreed with Biden on everything. Far from it. My focus on Biden's foreign policy prowess over the last 15 years has been largely having to do with a whole other mess the US got itself into in Iraq.

I am still glad, however, that he finally got himself elected president! Of course, I doubt that American voters would ever have made that happen if he hadn't been campaigning in the wake of a Trump administration. :)

Since FTPs are done for the year do you have any objection to Weigantia having an “open mic talking points” next weekend if’n anyone is so inclined? I don’t want to risk the dreaded yellow card.

So, I showed you mine now you show me yours — why specifically do you disagree with me?

C’mon…you can tell your (weedless) buddy MtnCaddy!
;D

And I’m not kidding, toss me a link or two about the prewar Biden-Putin negotiations that I missed. I mean, back then I had weed to smoke so I may have missed the link you’re sending me, K?

Elizabeth, I missed the part where Putin and Biden were negotiating the fate of a third sovereign nation.

Yer kidding, right?

Not at all.

In any event, Biden (Read: America) is now fully responsible for Ukraine for, well, forever.

Not even close.

Elizabeth, you are such a Biden fan (I'm quite surprised at what he's accomplished in just two years) that it's simply wrong for you to blame Joe for Vlad's folly.

I don't blame Biden for Vlad's folly - I blame him for his own folly.

y'know, other than al pacino...

seconded. and even if you're not technically blaming him, you're still holding him much more responsible for it than he really is. why then, overbloated expectations?

As much as a homer* that I am, I had NO idea that Ukraine would be so much better and Russia so much worse militarily. I've studied 20th century military history for truly four decades now and I just had the feeling that invading wouldn't work out so well, thus my wrong prediction.

*All my grandparents got off the boat at Ellis Island so it's certain that my family tree in Ukraine (aka my DNA) is fighting and dying over there right now.

Army 20
Navy 17 (2OT)

Army's goal line stand gives their seldomly used kicker the opportunity for the Good Guys to prevail -- boo-yah!

Here's a little work product to match the kind of research that you often post.

In fact, I've gotten in the habit of checking the last column's Weigantia to see what you've added at the bottom.

In other words, the Ukrainian government's close ties with far-right extremists highlights just one of the reasons why Ukraine will never be a member of NATO.

THEN by this logic Germany and the United States have no business remaining in NATO! Both have a problem with their respective far-right/neo-Nazi citizens -- look at the GOP's failure to condemn dinner with Nazis and terminating our Constitution. And Germany just swept up two dozen right-wingers who were plotting a coup.

Ukraine has the same problem with their far-right but they won a whopping 1.5% of the vote in their last election, I think they're in a little less danger than Murica is.

When the USSR collapsed Ukraine joined all the other former satellites and went independent. Turnout was 84% and 91% voted to beat feet. Even Crimea voted 54% in favor. Ukrainians trusted the UK, USA and Russia's security guarantees in 1994 and gave up the #3 nuclear weapon stockpile in 1994 (see The Budapest Memorandum.)

Once independent Ukraine has been run at least half of the time by pro-Russian crooks (see Yukanovich, Victor) and while better than Russia, much work remains to reduce corruption down to Western democracy levels (see Dark money in American politics.)

Sure, the Ukrainians want to join NATO. AS a democracy they have the right to put any aspirational language that they want into their constitution (see blacks can't vote but each counts as 60% of a voter.)

Which makes Biden's adamant refusal to put Ukraine's membership in the Western security alliance ON the negotiating table before this war began all the more perplexing.

Elizabeth, I missed the part where Putin and Biden were negotiating the fate of a third sovereign nation. And also the part about how throwing Ukraine under the bus NATO-wise would have stopped Putin from invading -- please post a link or two. I've got scores of happy hours under my belt researching this Russo-Ukraine War and I need to have this information!

The possibility of future NATO membership was NOT the reason for this war! Long story short Putin started the war almost nine years ago by invading Crimea. So naturally, Ukraine dammed up the major water source into Crimea and even before the Kerch bridge was damaged couldn't supply the 2.1 million who live there. Vlad needs a land bridge from Russia to Kherson to keep Crimea going because Sebastopol is THE year-round warm water port for Russia's Navy, a matter of great strategic importance.

Sure, Putin wanted to conquer all of Ukraine so he could subsequently continue on into Poland, the Baltics and Romania. But absent that, Moscow completely bailed on the north to protect that land bridge to Crimea.

A little history helps to understand Russian motivations. Starting with the Mongols (back in the 13th century) Russia has been invaded by all of it's neighbors at one time or another. Russia is long and flat and hard to defend. So rulers like Catherine the Great expanded the Russian empire to set up buffer states and this greater distance between prospective invaders and the Motherland. The Soviet Union was the latest iteration of this concept of establishing strategic depth, which is why Putin regarded it's dissolution as "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th Century."

Elizabeth, you are part of the Mearsheimer school of thought. He's an academic heavyweight who thinks that' it's the West's fault. FYI his opinion is in the minority and some regard him as a Putin apologist. Myself included.

I hope this refines your view of this invasion, which is simply naked imperialism. Please reply with your questions, comments and nasty remarks!

Oh, BTW Russia has already lost* the war and will withdraw or be driven out of Ukraine. Ukraine's greater manpower, NATO training and equipment and vastly superior motivation makes that this inevitable. I predict that Putin will end up with a bullet in his head...so that Russia can hopefully start it's recovery from this insanity.

*Ask me why and I'll tell you.

Um, besides MOST OVER/UNDERRATED Dem/Repug I think PROFILES IN COURAGE/COWARDICE could be another new pair for next year.

I agree and expect her to run as an independent, knowing that running and losing still enhances her apparent post-Senate lobbying clout. Good riddance, indeed. Bleeping Manchin is up for reelection in ‘24.