It seems demonstrably beyond the bounds of possibility that you might at least attempt to unplug yourself from the lame same-old-same-old phone-it-in knee-jerk infinitely boring customary modus operandi, and it's an equally undeniable fact that Russ and I are not currently (and highly unlikely to ever be) the topic of one of CW's headlining pieces.

Please, for the love of all that is holy, endeavor to restrain your monotonous infantile predilection and permit yourself to remain on topic and forego the prattling dullard cretinous troll routine.

Poor punctuation.

Grammar lame?? THAT's yer best shot??

I wish I could say I was surprised.. :eyeroll:

10/20 :D :D :D

What part of.... The American people feel that the economy and the explosion of crime is the 2 biggest problems facing this country..

In order to be grammatically correct, you should have used "are the two biggest problems," and you've got a sentence that continues in the next paragraph.

The American people overwhelmingly feel that Republicans are the best people to deal with these PRIORITY problems.. .... was not clear to you??

Poor punctuation. Also, those aren't policies. Work on it.

Do you want me to use words of one syllables??

If it'll make things uncomplicated for you while you attempt proper grammar and punctuation, it might be beneficial for you.

WOW...

*THAT'S* the best response you could come up with!??

Of course not. I kept it simple just for you.

Thank you for your concession.. :D

I didn't give you a concession, and therefore you've got nothing.

Russ is correct. All of it! :)

So tell us all about those great programs that the GOP is sitting on! Maybe it's the most beautiful Health Care system that Trump told us he was rolling out on four different occasions?

Two weeks. :)

Will he be wanting us to build a wall on our Northern border next?

And Canada will pay for it. Hear that, Elizabeth Miller!?

Because his southern wall is really keeping people out!

It's a fence, Russ, and contrary to popular belief of the Trumplicans, it's been there for decades and wasn't even Trump's idea. Most of the wall that was built replaced fencing that was already there. Womp, womp. :)

Depends on the policies, wouldn't you say?

What part of.... The American people feel that the economy and the explosion of crime is the 2 biggest problems facing this country..

The American people overwhelmingly feel that Republicans are the best people to deal with these PRIORITY problems.. .... was not clear to you??

Do you want me to use words of one syllables??

Also, you are incorrect about Trump's return to the Oval in 2024; even if he were to win the election, he wouldn't return until the following year in 2025.

WOW...

*THAT'S* the best response you could come up with!??

BBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHA

Thank you for your concession.. :D

Russ,

Majority of Americans want women to have access to abortions as a medical option.

GOP wants to defund the FBI. Don't see Americans in favor of that either.

Do you have *ANY* facts to back up ANY of your BS claims??

Auch... Look who I am asking for FACTS!?? :eyeroll:

9/20 :D :D :D

You ever notice that all of your responses of late are simply re-iterating what I have already said, albeit with a positive spin (read 'BS') for Democrats... :D

Nope. If that were a fact, then I would have obviously posted a bunch of tasteless jokes about Paul Pelosi that proved without doubt I was a bona fide jerk while at the same time whining (again) about Democrats being jerks.

Considering that it's well documented that the American people overwhelmingly WANT those GOP policies, such an action by Biden will simply prove that he is incapable of effective leadership and will pave the way for President Trump's triumphant return to the Oval Office in 2024..

Depends on the policies, wouldn't you say? The GOP doesn't really have any policies beyond tax cuts for the wealthy and cuts to Social Security for the rank and file. I don't think that one is very popular.

Also, you are incorrect about Trump's return to the Oval in 2024; even if he were to win the election, he wouldn't return until the following year in 2025. But it is freaking hysterical to watch you pine longingly for a criminal to occupy the White House; kind of puts totally to rest your claims of being a crime fighter. Heh. :)

Not factually accurate.. Since President Trump wiped the floor with Hillary.. :D

As to the rest....

Blaa blaaa blaaa..

Here are the facts, MPD=Conspiracy Boy.. :D

The American people feel that the economy and the explosion of crime is the 2 biggest problems facing this country..

The American people overwhelmingly feel that Republicans are the best people to deal with these PRIORITY problems..

Whine and cry about baby killing and gay marriage all ya want...

Americans don't really care about those things..

As the election in 5 days 9 hours will prove beyond ANY doubt... :D

8/20 :D :D

The American people overwhelmingly WANTED Hillary Clinton to be President, not Trump, so I'm curious why you think the people want these alleged GOP policies that you cannot even name?

Majority of Americans want women to have access to abortions as a medical option.

Majority of Americans want marriage equality for all Americans.

Majority of Americans support background checks for all gun purchases and transactions.

GOP wants to trash Medicaid and Social Security... don't see Americans wanting either of those!

GOP wants to defund the FBI. Don't see Americans in favor of that either.

So tell us all about those great programs that the GOP is sitting on! Maybe it's the most beautiful Health Care system that Trump told us he was rolling out on four different occasions? Will he be wanting us to build a wall on our Northern border next? Because his southern wall is really keeping people out!

Is it odd that Trump used the money from donations made to his legal defense fund to pay for the repairs to get it back in the air? How could his accountants ever think that those two things are related?

It's almost like Trump is telling us something...

Now, don't just take MY word for it.. :D

Let's hear from Nate Silver hisself.. :D

The Case For A Republican Sweep On Election Night

Today, you’ll meet Nathan Redd. He’ll try to convince me that the Republican outlook is even better than our model shows. Then later this week, we’ll introduce you to Nathaniel Bleu.1 While fairly partisan, Redd and Bleu are canny observers of politics who are reasonably numerate. Last night, I met with Redd at a bar near Grand Central Station before his commute back to Connecticut. An abridged transcript follows:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-a-republican-sweep-on-election-night/

For obvious reasons, I won't post the whole transcript..

But it's a very good read.. Chock full of all those facts that ya'all don't want to hear and will go to great lengths to avoid hearing... :D

7/20 :D :D

It's now a 53% chance that the GOP will take the Senate.. :D

The Senate is currently a toss-up. The party that wins two of the three closest states will likely win the Senate majority. Republicans’ two best pick-up opportunities are Nevada and Georgia. However, Herschel Walker’s scandals may hurt his chances against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat in Pennsylvania, but that race has gotten a lot tighter recently.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

Now matter HOW anyone wants to spin the facts, the facts remain the same... There is a buttload of momentum that is clearly pushing the GOP towards victory.. :D

Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania...

Nevada is a virtual guarantee of a GOP pick-up...

Considering how bad Stacey BIG LIE Abrams is dragging down the Dems in Georgia??? Georgia is a bit of a little less of a virtual guarantee, but still a virtual guarantee..

Pennsylvania??? The atrocious debate performance turned in by Fetterman is still paying dividends. For the GOP and Doc Oz.. :D

The Pittsburgh Gazette's endorsement of Doc Oz puts Pennsylvania firmly in the GOP WIN column...

The GOP is likely to sweep the Tri-State Trifecta... :D

Five Days, Ten Hours... :D

6/20 :D :D

“We’re talking about a collapse, if you will, in that group on the perceptions of the economy,” said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio who conducted the poll with Democratic pollster John Anzalone. The poll showed that 54% of white suburban women think the U.S. is already in a recession and 74% think the economy is headed in the wrong direction.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-suburban-women-swing-toward-backing-republicans-for-congress-11667381402?st=vah8l1cbghf7plz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

The collapse is very notable because in the WSJ's previous poll, in August, 43% thought the economy had entered a recession, and 59% said the economy was headed in the wrong direction.

Once again.. Momentum is with the GOP... :D

And if Biden moves to veto all these plans that the GOP have that the American people WANT...

Well, it doesn't bode well for Dems in 2024.. :D

5/20 :D :D

You ever notice that all of your responses of late are simply re-iterating what I have already said, albeit with a positive spin (read 'BS') for Democrats... :D I find that hilarious..

Thank goodness we'll have a Democratic POTUS to veto all the GOP BS.

Considering that it's well documented that the American people overwhelmingly WANT those GOP policies, such an action by Biden will simply prove that he is incapable of effective leadership and will pave the way for President Trump's triumphant return to the Oval Office in 2024.. :D

4/20 :D :D

It's also important to note that the DEMOCRAT Poll Of Polls, Nat Silver's 538, shows that Republicans now have a 51% chance of taking the Senate..

Well, it's not exactly a 51% chance, it's actually a cross-section of 100 scenarios out of a total of 40,000 computer run scenarios based on the latest polls where they've weighted those polls depending on past performance and they've pre-factored in a Republican bias. So 51 of those 100 scenarios out of 40,000 show Republicans winning the Senate, and it changes every time the polls change. If the polls are off, the probability predictions will be correspondingly off. If the polls are accurate... same thing in reverse. Every time the polls change, the probability models change. Right now, like CW's column discusses, the averages are top-heavy with Republican-run polling.

Also, the FiveThirtyEight updates a lot the last week, and it's 53 out of 100 of those 40,000 computer simulutions because they're now showing Nevada and Georgia going GOP in the Senate... but not by very big margins at all (at least not yet).

This is noteworthy because about a month or so ago, 538 had Democrats KEEPING control of the Senate at about 75%...

It topped out at around 70 out of 100 scenarios (a cross-section taken from 40,000 scenarios), and that was around mid September.

On the other hand, over in the House, it is off the charts in favor of Republicans and has been the entire midterm season. I think the closest the Democrats came was high 30s... the exact reverse of the 2018 midterm charts when Democrats netted a gain of 41 seats.

So, the momentum is clearly on the side of the GOP in the final days before the election.. :D

Also, the polls always tighten in the last days before an election when the pollsters "fudging" their numbers suddenly move them more in line with their actual polling because they get ranked in order of accuracy. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Thank goodness we'll have a Democratic POTUS to veto all the GOP BS.

Heh...

Tell ya what..

To show what a good sport I am, if ya want to buy the shirt, I'll wear it on the same day you wear yours.. :D

Make sure it's sleeve-less if at all possible.. And I am down from an XXL to a Large... So plan accordingly.. :D

3/20 :D :D

This is noteworthy because about a month or so ago, 538 had Democrats KEEPING control of the Senate at about 75%...

So, the momentum is clearly on the side of the GOP in the final days before the election.. :D

I'm just sayin'... :D

JL, guess we're gonna have ta fit you for that T-Shirt, eh?? :D

2/20 :D :D

This would most certainly come under the heading of "Whatever ya have to tell yerself to make it thru the day.." :D

The problem Democrats have is that their polling ALWAYS undercounts GOP'ers. This is well documented as fact that even DEMOCRAT polling outfits acknowledge.. No self-respecting American/GOP'er would want to talk to a Democrat poll taker.. :D

Of course, the converse is also true.. No Democrat poll taker would want to talk to a self-respecting American/GOP'er.. So it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.. Confirmation bias in all it's glory.. :D

Further, recent Dem polls haven't take into account milestones that have occurred recently.

As you note, the NY Grime poll doesn't take into account the debate that Fetterman totally and unequivocally blew... A snap poll immediately following the "Debate Heard Round The World" had Doc Oz completely and utterly destroying Fetterman in the debate, 80-some odd % to 15-some odd %.... :D Of course, it's probably more accurate to say that Fetterman completely and utterly destroyed HIMSELF... :D TOE-MAY-TOE, POE-TAA-TOE :D

In Georgia, Stacey BIG LIE Abrams further proved the Democrats' Anti-Cop/Hate Cops bona-fides by accusing Georgia Sheriffs of being racist.

Of course, Big Lie had absolutely ZERO facts to support her bigoted and hate-cops claim.. Such a blatantly bone-headed and ignorant remark by BIG LIE will also taint Warlock even more so... And, with Georgia coming off of a really big College Football win...??? Well, it's clear to see where the Georgia elections are heading.. :D

I get it.. I really do.. I get that Democrats will want to latch onto ANY shred of a glimmer of hope they can find... or invent.. :D

But I honestly and sincerely would counsel Dems that they need to prepare themselves for the Uber Nuclear Biblical Shellacking that they are about to receive.. :D A shellacking that's going to make the 2010 shellacking look like a Fun Family Picnic by comparison.. :D

In 5 days and 18 hours.. :D

1/20 :D :D

My ballot has been received and counted.

It's good to get that confirmation if you need to vote by mail or use a ballot drop-off box.

VOTE

Hell, yes, and how is that ballot tracking going?

Republicans flood the zone with slightly-skewed partisan polling, while the traditional pollsters go dark. This heavily affects the "poll of polls" averages on sites like RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, which is where everyone gets their polling averages from. So the pundits all dutifully write up the storylines: "Shift In Momentum Towards GOP!" and "Last-Minute Swing In Polls!"

I submit as a case in point an excerpt from FiveThirtyEight and many other websites in America who'd already tagged this one's toe:

The Abortion Vote In Kansas Looks Like It’s Going To Be Close

According to the first publicly released poll of the campaign, conducted by co/efficient and shared exclusively with FiveThirtyEight, 47 percent of likely primary voters say they plan to vote for the amendment, while 43 percent say they plan to vote against it.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-abortion-vote-in-kansas-looks-like-its-going-to-be-close/

*
In its defense, the article did, however, state that it looked like the Democrats "may be more energized."

Fast forward to the only poll that mattered just 13 days later, and to say it "wasn't even" close is rather an understatement. An unprecedented number of Kansans voted against the constitutional amendment that would have allowed lawmakers to end their right to choose. When the dust had settled, it was a 59-41 double-digit rout in a conservative state.

Polls can be instructive if you watch the fluctuations over time in the same poll being conducted the exact same way, and it's possible the polls are underestimating the participation rate of certain groups like "Gen Z," "Gen X" et alia and also possible they're accurate. Generally no two polls are alike and there are a plethora of push-polls designed with the specific intent to achieve a certain result. However, these flood-the-zone-type polls can become a self-fulfilling prophecy if/when voters hear of them and choose to "sit this one out" because "it's already over"... so do not ever sit one out based on either favorable or unfavorable polls and the mewling of the punditocracy.

Regardless of your Party/political beliefs and despite the reporting on which way the wind is blowing and which direction the polls are moving, ignore it and (always) go cast your votes in the only poll that matters. Go early if you can, fill out your ballot and send it in if you're a vote by mailer, but vote by whatever means are available to you.

Just my opinion FWIW, but if you don't like the government you get after having sat out an election, you earned it, and the pendulum swings back and forth.