As far as whether Biden can accomplish anything with a Republican senate, I’d say yes. Certainly not as much as any of us might wish... but if he can flip a few moderate Republican votes, it’ll be enough. I could see a few republicans voting for a democratic pandemic relief bill.

If not that, then maybe Biden can use some of that supreme executive authority no one ever talks about. You know, as outlined in Article II of the Constitution. Apparently he can do anything he wants as president ????

-CW

http://www.chrisweigant.com/2020/11/05/a-long-term-look-at-the-redblue-trends-on-the-map/

Heh.

-CW

I'm so looking forward to him not intruding into our daily lives.

Trump's lead is down to 3,635.

Also, Benedict Donald embarrassed himself and America in front of the whole world on live television. #Pathetic

-CW

DS9 also gets maligned for not being "Star Trek enough", in large part because they were willing to occasionally do things that conflicted with Roddenberry's utopian ideal. For one thing, they told a war story. They also dealt with corruption within Star Fleet, something that other series dismissed as nigh impossible because humans had evolved past it. They allowed the characters to develop shades of gray that other series wouldn't. Honestly, that particular series is probably more relevant now than it ever has been.

-CW

Trump's lead is down to 75,427 with about ~320,000 mail-in ballots remaining to be counted, but PA election official has now reported that it may take longer than expected to count the remaining hundreds of thousands of votes. :)

Biden holds onto his lead at 65,179. :)

OK, gotta go write today's thing...

-CW

And if he thought he could get away with it, he'd probably LOVE to force his brides to be naked for the wedding ceremony!

Heh.

-CW

:-)

Trump's lead is down to 9,525.

Peach pie. :)

-CW

Back in the 1990s, a friend of mine signed all his emails (remember .sig files?) with: "The Ferengi have taken over the ship!"

Heh.

-CW

I did watch some of it when it was originally on. I liked Quark, one of the best characters (and alien races) they ever came up with. But I found a lot of the overall storylines kind of dark and depressing.

I still can't watch TNG. I can't stand Picard, although the other characters aren't as bad, I suppose.

I know a lot of people hated it, but I actually really liked Voyager. I loved the captain, very much in the Kirkian mold of what a starship captain should be like, and I loved all the supporting cast (except Neelix). Kes was OK, although she represented an impossible race (they can only get pregnant once in their lives, and they only have one baby. So how many generations until the race disappears? Or -- how did this race survive even the second generation? Two parents produce one baby once in their lives -- population halves... grrr...). I loved 7 of 9, too. The Borg with a heart of gold, what's not to love?

I watched most of Enterprise, but their storyline kind of got lost after 9/11 happened. The final six months of the show was awesome, however, especially the two-part "Mirror/Mirror" and "The Tholian Web" continuing story (with the best ST opening credits sequence of all time -- the Enterprise strafing cities from above in the Mirror/Mirror universe).

Since then, I've fallen behind. Haven't even seen like the last 2 movies or so...

The original show's still my favorite. Can't beat Kirk and Spock and McCoy...

-CW

If you're a Star Trek fan, you really should watch DS9. If you can find the time, I highly recommend you make the effort to watch it. It's on streaming services.

CW

LL&P

But thanks for clearing that up!

:-)

-CW

https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Self-sealing_stem_bolt

If you're out of smoke, just ask...

LL&P

Obviously it's a variety of stem bolt that is capable of sealing itself.

That launched a paroxysm of laughter from me.

But, I like the message.

LL&P

OK, I gotta ask. What's a self-sealing stem bolt?

Inquiring minds want to know.

-CW

Agreed

Augured...

LL&P

https://www.thedailybeast.com/meet-the-maga-bannon-linked-clowns-soliciting-cash-off-stop-the-steal-election-theft-panic?ref=scroll

Jebus

LL&P

Jinx! :)

Trump's lead is down to 97,900 with ~300,000 ballots left to count. :)

Chis Wallace said he checked with their decision desk and they're standing by their Arizona call. All it would take now is Nevada and they'd be all set.

That would really trigger the orange snowflake!

https://www.thedailybeast.com/chris-wallace-shoots-down-trump-and-fox-news-stars-election-fraud-lies?ref=home&utm_source=web_push

The rubber meets the road here for Trumpeteers.

LL&P

I chuckled the other day when someone on FOX referred to the EC as protection against "the will of the majority"...

Priceless sophistry uttered in a demockracy.

no no no...A federal election should be just that...Every four years the federal govt hijack your local school for a day, people sweep through and vote, they can do that because the law says they get two paid hours to do so.

It's simple enough, we here in Canada call it democracy.

LL&P

If the electoral college is to remain, it at the very least needs to be reformed. Personally, I think an interesting option might be to change the ways electors are apportioned to 1 per representative plus only 1 for both senators instead of 1 for each senator. This would still give the smaller states a voice, but keep it from being quite so outsized. Instead of Wyoming getting 1 votes per 188k people, they'd get 1 vote per 282k. That's still a lot better than California's 1 vote per 677k, but I do agree that the less populous states need to have enough of a voice that they aren't completely ignored, so some weighting is appropriate. That said, such a rebalancing would help prevent elections like 2016 where a candidate wins the popular vote by a large margin, but still loses the election.

Trumpism will evolve in to something else much like the tea party before it evolved into Trumpism. It's the rural/urban divide and is not going to go away unless it's addressed. I see calls for getting rid of the electoral college but if the needs and problems of the rural is not addressed, would that just be one tyranny for another? And with the difficulty of getting rid of the electoral college, needing a constitutional amendment, the rural states will not go along unless their needs are not only addressed but strong plans for them to be met. Yes, the republicans do little for the rural but they, or at least the current iteration of Trumpism/tea party, at least gives them lip service which is more than anyone else...

Biden is ahead by 68,129 votes with about 450,000 remaining to be counted... majority from Maricopa.

Maricopa County, Phoenix area, stated they will release another update after 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

Bask in the irony of Trump selling his followers on the invalidity of mail-in votes.

It's refreshingly peaceful.

LL&P

I would recommend a Lancaster County shoo-fly pie. Delicious!

:-)

-CW

And cherries. Don't forget a cherry pie with Traverse City cherries! Cherry capital of the universe, according to them...

Heh.

-CW

"Meanwhile, Poor David Perdue is getting perilously close to dropping below 50%, and if he does... two runoff elections in January 2021. :)"

[73] Mopshell wrote:

"Meanwhile, Poor David Perdue is getting perilously close to dropping below 50%, and if he does... two runoff elections in January 2021. :)

Yeah I saw that and I thought Hmmm... that would mean 2 less republican senators being seated in the 117th Congress January 3.

I know it's a stretch but if Cal Cunningham could somehow get over the line and we won one of two Georgia runoffs, Dems would claim majority in the Senate come January 20."

That's got to remain our hope. If Democrats could pick up both Georgia Senate seats in a run off, that would leave a 50/50 tie in the Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris the tie breaking vote. Do away with the filibuster, and Democrats could pass their agenda and pad the vote count by making Washington D.C. and/or Puerto Rico a state.

Otherwise Democrats will have to wait 2 years and half way thru Biden's term to try to turn the Senate blue again in 2022.

Trump's lead down to 111,369.

With ~149,000 outstanding ballots primarily from Clark County... Las Vegas. Biden has likely got Nevada.
__________

Georgia

Perdue dropped below 50% and not likely to regain the lead because the majority of the ballots are mail-in.

Trump leads Biden by 13,534 with ~50,000 ballots remaining. Savannah, Georgia -- Chatham County -- is where the bulk of the outstanding ballots are, ~17K. Trump could still win Georgia, and Biden needs about ~63% of the remaining outstanding ballots to go his way.

There are also provisional ballots, overseas ballots, and military that can be received until tomorrow so Georgia might be decided by a 3-digit or 4-digit outcome.
__________

Pennsylvania

With ~550,000 outstanding ballots remaining to be counted, Biden is closing in and has cut Trump's lead to a measly 114,011. Biden has been getting about 75% of these votes because mail-ins.

So it looks like Pennsylvania will put Biden over the top... later today.

:)

That's my default reality. Sure, my happy place has Trump and his gang forfeit the remainder of their lives to punishment, or worse.

LL&P

If we see a runoff between Perdue and Ossoff, it'll be very interesting to see how things change with Trump no longer on the ballot.

I don't think Trump will ever go back to his previous life. I think he's going to find himself indicted, tried, convicted and jailed, along with several other GOP.

Meanwhile, Poor David Perdue is getting perilously close to dropping below 50%, and if he does... two runoff elections in January 2021. :)

Yeah I saw that and I thought Hmmm... that would mean 2 less republican senators being seated in the 117th Congress January 3.

I know it's a stretch but if Cal Cunningham could somehow get over the line and we won one of two Georgia runoffs, Dems would claim majority in the Senate come January 20.

Meanwhile in Georgia the margin is down to 14,100!

As for Trumpism, history, a subject I'm more than familiar with suggests that Trumpism will shrink away with its defeat.

Trump holds the reigns for that, and my trick knee tells me he will bewail until it's a done deal, then go back to what he does best...Grifting.

Hang on, hold tight, put away the pearls...Clutch them not.

LL&P

"Why are the political pollsters always so wrong???"

One reason, and that is ignorance of human nature.

I've written about this before, but one more time: When a polltaker calls a Dem/Lib and asks, "Whom (he'd likely ask 'who') you gonna vote for, he or she jumps up, waves his/her arms an shouts at the top of his/her voice, "Biden!!!!" (or whoever the Dem/Lib candidate happens to be.)

But when the pollster asks the same question of a Rep/Con, he/she says (calmly), "none of your phuqueing bus . . ." er, I mean "undecided".

But when the Rep/Con gets to the voting booth, he/she pulls the handle for Trump (or whatever Rep).

Simple as that!!

Biden is only 18,590 votes behind with an estimated 48,000 left to count. He can do this! Joe is going to win Georgia![insert happy teary emoji]

Meanwhile, Poor David Perdue is getting perilously close to dropping below 50%, and if he does... two runoff elections in January 2021. :)

The numbers nypoet is using look the same as those I'm seeing in WashPo.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/

Biden is only 18,590 votes behind with an estimated 48,000 left to count. He can do this! Joe is going to win Georgia![insert happy teary emoji]

I just took a different route. Heh.

We all have to take our own route - hey, that's what being an individual is all about! :)

After they finish counting that shit-ton of ballots in Fulton and DeKalb and other counties in areas where "Black Americans" came out in droves and gave Donald Trump the proverbial giant finger, I think Joe Biden is going to win Georgia... leaving Donald Trump zero paths to the presidency.

I think so too and I'm sure you're right about Pennsylvania as well. This week is getting better by the day!

I'm having weed brownies to celebrate... with a pie chaser! :)

Bloody good idea! Speaking of pies, there a French chef on the other side of town who bakes the most delicious garlic chicken pies in a rich cream sauce... I'm addicted.

PS: I've finally learned how to wink! ;)

Pennsylvania has even more! I spent a summer living right in the middle of the state for a job, about 30 minutes from State College, where Penn State is located. Lots of Amish and Mennonites, and both made excellent baked goods, including pies.

I hear you and followed your reasoning but I think this is only half the story or, rather, half the con.

Trump has been screaming that the mail in ballots were easily corrupted
Yes he did.

Do you remember the one case of voter corruption in North Carolina

Yes I do but Trump wasn't in the business of harvesting ballots. That little scam is very small scale, practised in an area comprising a few streets. He couldn't hope to bribe and recruit enough people in enough places to make a difference to the results in several states. So he wasn't going to do that when there are much better alternatives that have been used effectively by republicans in the past.

Besides, he and the GOP were trying very hard to stop the mass use of main-in ballots so this wasn't projection so much as misdirection. They told people that mail-in was unfair, unreliable, even claimed it was illegal. Then, when their fear and menace tactics failed to work, Trump installed DeJoy in USPS to subvert the postal service from within.

DeJoy went to extreme lengths to sabotage mail-in ballots. He stripped out automatic sorting machines and ordered them damaged beyond repair, changed pickup and delivery rosters to unfamiliar routes, shortened hours, and threatened dismissal if anyone didn't comply.

In addition he lied to a congressional hearing and a court judge about what he was doing, and falsely claimed he'd ensure the timely delivery of ballots while continuing his aggressive campaign to undermine USPS.

All of this demonstrated that Trump wanted to prevent mass mail-in voting, especially when he said this: "If you can shop in-person, you can vote in-person." That's what he really wanted people to do: vote in-person as they usually did when there wasn't a pandemic. His fear was that mail-in voting would surpass in-person voting, hence the USPS dirty tricks campaign to stop mail-in at all costs.

So why did he want people to vote in-person? Because then they would be using voting machines. For years experts have warned the American people of how easy it is to rig voting machines and tabulators. Want to be sure to win a close race? They can make sure you win by 23,000-27.000 in each of three states, no problem. Nice and easy.

And since there are never any investigations, the evidence will always remain undiscovered so the cheaters can cheat with impunity. If anyone does get too close, like a court case did to Georgia in 2017, the server and backup computers can always be wiped clean.

https://apnews.com/article/877ee1015f1c43f1965f63538b035d3f

If you're counting pies, might I suggest you do so in Michigan?

I'm finished counting pies in Michigan. :)

I can say from experience that they've got some damn good pies, especially if you get them from the Amish living there.

They got any Amish pies in Pennsylvania? ;)

If you're counting pies, might I suggest you do so in Michigan? I can say from experience that they've got some damn good pies, especially if you get them from the Amish living there.

trump is up 2.6% in PA with 9% still left to count.

That ~9% is ~460,000 ballots with a huge chunk of them coming from Philadelphia.

biden is up 2.4% in AZ with 11% left to count.

Arizona ballots are harder to judge because they're from all over the state. I still think Joe takes it.

biden is up 0.6% in NV with 13% left to count.

The bulk of the remaining ballots are from Clark county and will lean heavily Democratic. Nevada is Biden country.

trump is up 0.4% in GA with 2% left to count.

About 50,000 ballots left to count which doesn't include provisionals and overseas/military. I guess Donald thinks Biden could win Georgia too because he's now suing in multiple select counties in Georgia to have predominantly the ballots of "Black Americans" thrown out; he has done so much for them, you know. *shakes head*

i know some folks are calling it already, but my sense is it's still too soon for anybody to be counting chickens.

Who's counting chickens? I'm counting pies... in Pennsylvania... Pittsburgh and Philly cheese steak pies. :)

Russ's point was clear enough.

I guess we'll see. :)

Where did you get those numbers? I've been watching CNN's electoral map, which has similar, but not exactly the same numbers, mostly just more ballots outstanding. They've got 11% left in PA, 14% left in AZ, 14% left in NV, and 4% left in GA. I'd love to know if you have a more accurate and up-to-date source though.

Because I was very happily optimistic. Four years of bad, worse and worse news really got to me and affected friends of mine. The day before the election I was daydreaming of how wonderful it would be if... Stupid of course, childish even.

Not stupid at all. I loved your list, and we'd definitely all be better off if we had the optimism and outlook of children.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VO2_KG6g-Q

But there hasn't been much to smile about in the last four years. I certainly didn't want to dwell on the worse case scenario. Time enough to deal with that if it happened.

Rule of analysis: Wish in one hand and shit in the other... see which one gets full first. ;) <--- wink

After they finish counting that shit-ton of ballots in Fulton and DeKalb and other counties in areas where "Black Americans" came out in droves and gave Donald Trump the proverbial giant finger, I think Joe Biden is going to win Georgia... leaving Donald Trump zero paths to the presidency.

I'm having weed brownies to celebrate... with a pie chaser! :)

i think russ's point was that there may well have been massive cheating that we still haven't heard about.

JL

trump is up 2.6% in PA with 9% still left to count.

biden is up 2.4% in AZ with 11% left to count.

biden is up 0.6% in NV with 13% left to count.

trump is up 0.4% in GA with 2% left to count.

i know some folks are calling it already, but my sense is it's still too soon for anybody to be counting chickens.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bm51ihfi1p4

20, 20, 20, 20, 4 hours to goooo
I wanna be sedated
Nothing to do nowhere to go oh
I wanna be sedated

Just get me to the airport
And put me in a plane
Hurry, hurry, hurry
Before I go insane
I can't control my fingers
I can't control my brain
Oh, no oh oh oh oooh!

20, 20, 20, 20, 4 hours to goooo
I wanna be sedated
Nothing to do nowhere to go oh
I wanna be sedated

Just put me in a wheelchair
And get me on a plane
Hurry, hurry, hurry
Before I go insane
I can't control my fingers
I can't control my brain
Oh, no oh oh oh oooh!

20, 20, 20, 20, 4 hours to goooo
I wanna be sedated
Nothing to do nowhere to go oh
I wanna be sedated

Just put me in a wheelchair
And get me to the show
Hurry, hurry, hurry
Before I go loco
I can't control my fingers
I can't control my toes
Oh, no oh oh oh oooh!

20, 20, 20, 20, 4 hours to go
I wanna be sedated
Nothing to do nowhere to go oh
I wanna be sedated

Just put me in a wheelchair
And get me to the show
Hurry, hurry, hurry
Before I go loco
I can't control my fingers
I can't control my toes
Oh, no oh oh oh oooh!

Bam bam ba-bam ba-bam bam ba-bam
I wanna be sedated
Bam bam ba-bam ba-bam bam ba-bam
I wanna be sedated
Bam bam ba-bam ba-bam bam ba-bam
I wanna be sedated
Bam bam ba-bam ba-bam bam ba-bam
I wanna be sedated

Think about it... the only reason that this scam was discovered was because of the unexplainable increase in absentee ballot requests from one complex. Had someone not noticed the increase of requests and thought to investigate it, NC would have had a different Republican in the House of Representatives and one less person in their prisons!

But, the irregularity WAS noticed because people are trained to notice. Your system works. Well!

I, for one, am duly impressed everytime I hear an election official speak. You should all be very proud of how this election is being handled.

I just took a different route. Heh.

Ask yourself this: Why did you predict 60 seats in the House for Democrats?

Because I was very happily optimistic. Four years of bad, worse and worse news really got to me and affected friends of mine. The day before the election I was daydreaming of how wonderful it would be if... Stupid of course, childish even. But there hasn't been much to smile about in the last four years. I certainly didn't want to dwell on the worse case scenario. Time enough to deal with that if it happened.

How could the Republicans cheat anymore than they have blatantly attempted to do in this election? Fortunately, Trump is usually pretty good at telling us where to look for his con game through his projection. Trump has been screaming that the mail in ballots were easily corrupted, and Democrats have argued “that is NOT true”. The louder he claims mail in ballots are corruptible, the louder and more forceful are Democrats in responding that they are NOT easily corruptible!

But what if they are?

Do you remember the one case of voter corruption in North Carolina where an entire housing complex had been paid to request absentee ballots and then the people running the scam came and had the voters sign their ballots, saying they would properly fill it out for them, and then they took and mailed the ballots in for them. They were told they were being given the $50/100 money cards for participating in the pilot program that helped poor voters.

Do you remember how this scam was discovered? It was not because a housing complex in a deeply Democratic district all suddenly went Republican. No one from the complex thought to call in and report what was going on. No, the only way this was uncovered was when someone saw that the housing complex that typically had one or two absentee ballot requests during the past few elections suddenly had over 30 for the current election. It was when they investigated the increase in absentee requests that the truth about the ballot harvesting was discovered. That caused the election results to be tossed out and a new election was ordered.

Think about it... the only reason that this scam was discovered was because of the unexplainable increase in absentee ballot requests from one complex. Had someone not noticed the increase of requests and thought to investigate it, NC would have had a different Republican in the House of Representatives and one less person in their prisons!

Cut to 2020... the only thing that caused this scam to fail in the past is no longer an issue — increased requests for absentee ballots in large numbers has become the norm during this election. Which means the likelihood of the scam being successful during this election is much greater!

With some voting precincts being decided by just hundreds of votes one way or the other, this harvesting scam could easily change the results and allow Republicans to steal elections right under our noses.

I trust Donald Trump to tell us the truth when he projects via his accusations against Democrats. In places like SC where Lindsey Graham was re-elected by such a huge margin, we should look to see if any poor areas with majority Black populations had large numbers of voters supporting him.

I don't mean either of those things so let me try rewording it.

Don't bother.

The assumption is that the pollsters were wrong in 2016 and 2020. Why did people jump to that conclusion?

Ask yourself this: Why did you predict 60 seats in the House for Democrats?

What is it they are taking for granted as right in order to make the pollsters wrong?

Heh. :)

Yes, good idea, let's do that.

You don't want to do that... trust me on this.

Rule of analysis: don't assume, ask questions.

Heh.

What if the pollsters were right?

What if you were right about those 60 Senate seats? John M is right that they were nuts, and you were nuts for predicting 60 seats in the Senate based on them being nuts. Any more questions? Just ask. :)

Heh.

Exactly! :)

Try this critical thinking exercise...

What if the pollsters were right in both 2016 and 2020?

Try this critical thinking exercise which begins with a question: Are you completely unaware that it was indeed you who posted a scenario recently on this very forum whereby the Democratic Party would have 60 Senate seats? And then some nice person came along and explained the magical thinking you were displaying? Which magical thinking, I would wager, was based on the polling which John M rightly points out was nuts... which made you appear... nuts. :)

I don't mean either of those things so let me try rewording it.

The assumption is that the pollsters were wrong in 2016 and 2020. Why did people jump to that conclusion? What is it they are taking for granted as right in order to make the pollsters wrong?

Can we drill a little deeper?

Yes, good idea, let's do that.

the entire political polling profession blew it again

Rule of analysis: don't assume, ask questions.

Why did all the polls - ten different reputable pollsters, in the case of Michigan on the EV.com site - take in the same garbage? And this especially when four years ago they blew the same problem by about the same amount.

By about the same amount, huh? That's a coincidence.

Now ask the question:

What if the pollsters were right?

Do you mean what if they'd been right and Hillary Clinton had won in 2016 and then (for some reason) Biden had succeeded her with even bigger margins in 2020?

Or do you mean what if they were right in both elections with their small-print caveats about margin of error and it's all just probability so don't blame us if we're wrong?

Try this critical thinking exercise...

What if the pollsters were right in both 2016 and 2020?

Yes, sir. It won't work. Lawyers have been busy for months with Trump suing to set up this scenario. If Trump hadn't sued those states from counting ballots earlier, Biden would have been declared the winner on election night, and Trump couldn't have that... he needed this scenario in order to con the gullible minions that he was cheated. It's pathetic that we have a president who doesn't give a shit about America, We the People, or our democracy... the reason I've always referred to him as Benedict Donald. You think he's kidding about leaving the country? He isn't. He'll shit all over it on his way out and is a counterintelligence risk, but I digress.

Biden built a Blue Wall, and Trump is going to pay for it. :)

Luckily, he's put Rudy Giuliani on the case, so that may kill his chances right there. It's been a long time since Rudy's been a competent lawyer.

Hard to believe he was once Comey's boss. How far he has fallen and lost his damn mind. Rudy also is a giant honking counterintelligence risk. If he manages to avoid incarceration and navigate all the legal landmines, I'm sure Sacha Baron Cohen will be happy to "cast" Rudy G in his next movie. :)

Plus, I got caught in the Red Mirage. Would not wish that experience on anyone.

Can you tell - I'm in a much better mood tonight as compared to last night. Heh.

I almost attempted to explain things to you last night, and I almost posted that you were embarrassing yourself. Almost.

While it's technically statistically not "unpossible" that Arizona winds up being won by Trump and a not "unpossible" other batch of statistical things could happen, Biden had basically won last night. He knew it, and Trump knew it... that it was only a matter of counting those ballots that Trump had sued to keep them from counting until election day. Biden will win Pennsylvania. :)

Heh. What?

Impeached but still in office. Lost popular vote but still the president.

Did you think I needed that explained to me? Rhetorical question.

Biden literally statistically put the election basically out of Trump's reach last night when he did two things:

(1) He flipped that Nebraska district.
(2) He flipped Arizona.

CW explained this beautifully in his post at [57].

Winning Arizona and Nebraska 2nd CD wasn't a mistake. It was a plan that was designed and executed flawlessly. Thank you, John McCain.

It was only a matter of counting the votes at that point... the votes Trump had gone to court to sue to make them wait until election day to start counting. :)

https://sheartracking.online/blogs/news/why?fbclid=IwAR1dGsxyUOmPPKXeBlDwOa46YnGWpNGxhZWi0BiHx_WJ2U89KuekI4wpIkk

Agreed. "Stop the counting and declare me the winner" is not actually a legal strategy, in front of ANY court. And that's pretty much exactly what Trump wants his lawyers to do. Luckily, he's put Rudy Giuliani on the case, so that may kill his chances right there. It's been a long time since Rudy's been a competent lawyer...

-CW