I find your scenario very likely. That wouldn't stop Trump from trying to sell the idea to Pence. Trump is a salesman.

Fun Fact: Hillary Clinton isn't running for President in 2020.

I did just hear that Trump plans on holding a Super Spreader Event on Saturday where he will personally spit in every person’s in attendance mouth! Go herd mentality!!!

The Pollsters see Trump losing voter approval at both state and national levels, with a very high statistical significance.

The Pundits who take a broader, more intuitive approach also see Trump losing steam, but vary quite a bit about about how to color the states on a US map. That said, I don't know of any who say Trump is the favorite or running head to head with Biden.

The Predictors (Nate Silver of 538 and such), who see politics thru the lens of Generalized Linear Models are giving Trump somewhere in the range of a 20-25% of winning a second term.

The Punters, blokes who place real money bets (where that is legal or not closely policed) were the last to come on board the rough consensus train. Until recently, the punters were acting like Biden and Trump were almost neck and neck, with Biden a wee bit behind just a few weeks ago. Not anymore. The Punters are now betting that Trump has about a 1 in 3 chance of winning the Electoral College.

Here is my point to all the above. Trump faces a retirement full of litigation and legal fees not paid by somebody else. His businesses are losing money and loans are coming due. To the extent that Trump can think straight between the COVID and the Steroids, should he hand the reins over to Pence, in exchange for a blanket pardon? Or should Trump just refuse to leave office because the election was unfair and because he says so. A safer alternative might be for Trump to quickly skip town to Russia, N. Korea or some other totalitarian haven. What would Roy Cohn advise?

After the fall of trump there will be a fierce competition among a new group of ambitious pols to seize leadership of this 40% group of Americans. Should one emerge who is devoid of the personal failings of Trump (grab um by the pussy) and who is a whole lot smarter it is not at all inconceivable that leader could create another path to victory in 2024 or beyond. I do not think we are anywhere near putting this problem behind us. I believe this country will be engaged in an existential struggle between the 60% and the 40% to see who will run the country for for a very long time.

i think you meant that the farther north you go, the further south you get.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/is-it-further-or-farther-usage-how-to-use

as for [8]... well, i don't think such comments do anything to further your cause. so to speak. it's the color of a rainbow farted by a unicorn.

JL

i also found cw's predictions a bit rosy/premature.

Your analysis seems to work from a different electoral breakdown than the 'whites will only be a plurality soon' approach that the 'demographic' articles tend to focus on. If I understand you, you see the change in power as coming from urban majorities in formerly conservative states, irrespective of race.

But you seem to be defining power entirely in terms of the electoral college, i.e., the presidency. Even in the context of your analysis, the Senate seems more likely to be the Republicans' stronghold going forward. As you say, when "Republicans are left with only the states on the United States map which don't have much population" the presidency may be out of reach - but not the Senate.

And without the Senate, a long series of Democratic presidents will be in the same position Obama was in: all the good intentions in the world, and nary a major legislative program or liberal court system to show for it.

Of course, I may be wrong. Perhaps more powerful metropolitan areas will elect Democratic senators from a majority of states just as they may elect Democratic presidents. But the "Coming Demographic Majority" articles have been saying this for quite some time now.

Finally, per your piece, Trump is a factor in the failure of these predictions, of course, but Trump is just the idiotic expression of a powerful minority of the country that has achieved solidarity, coherence, and central direction since the Reagan era. That minority has controlled the presidency more often than not; ditto the Senate; ditto the courts thanks to points 1 and 2 preceding. Will the urbanization of the southeastern Atlantic seaboard, Texas, and the southern mountain states really overcome the "Oh my God, the Republicans" factor of numerous smaller states dominated by Fox News watchers, in the coming decade or two?

Nice assessment of where we are now and where we could be headed after this election. Because the GOP has been taken over by the Cult of Trump, and Trump has absolutely no ties to the Republican Party that aren’t solely self-serving, it is impossible to know what will remain of the GOP once Trump is out of office. What happens to a political party after it turns into a cult of personality and that personality goes away? What remains in the ashes?

No one should expect Trump to show any concern for the party if it fails to re-elect him. I don’t think Trump’s base is going to be as dedicated to him once they see him turn on them and his disdain and disgust for them is on full display. Face it, he is going to need someone to blame for his loss, and it sure isn’t going to be himself! I would be willing to bet that Trumps reaction to losing will be quick in coming and extremely bitter in nature. I think we will see a sharp drop in voter turnout for the Republicans in 2022 and 2024 as a result.

At that point the struggle for political power will be between the Progressive and Establishment wings of the Democratic Party.

Church of MAGA -- Part Deux

Regeneron!