"just because guam, marianas, USVI and samoa don't currently have a grassroots movement for it doesn't mean they'd turn down statehood if it were offered."

True enough. But only D.C., Puerto Rico, Guam and the USVI meet the population threshold for statehood. The Northern Marianas and American Samoa do not.

We'll do a Van Halen tribute Sunday night.

:)

RIP EVH

Oh, no... another musical genius gone. Eddie Van Halen learned to play piano by ear and sight. I think he was such a great guitarist because of his piano training. He never took guitar lessons; he taught himself. The guy could not read sheet music!

He developed tongue cancer at a fairly young age (on the exact spot where he held his metal guitar picks in his mouth), which later invaded his esophagus.

RIP to a true musical genius.
_________________

p.s. EM, we need a tribute for Eddie on Sunday.

Cool beans, Elizabeth!

You got some more Lincoln Project!

Hospital

Recovery

Sure makes a fella feel his years *smh*

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIpHZo7BsT8

Excellent work, John M! Thanks for digging up this relevant data.

1. Trump fatigue is peaking at the wrong time for Trump.

2. The “silent majority” in this election is not who you think it is

If there is such a thing it's a normally not politically engaged electorate that is simply tired of things Trump.

3. Democrats will regret placing so much emphasis on absentee voting.

The trouble being that Absentee ballots are roughly 10 times more likely to be DISQUALIFIED than polling place ballots. Plus, days to count them up are days for Trump to make mischief.

4. Trump might lose women voters by numbers we’ve never imagined

Pretty self explanatory. In 2016 Hillary won women by 13%. We may see an unprecedented 20% gender gap for the benefit of Joe Biden.

if the next democratic president and congress put it forward, who's to say there wouldn't be any takers?

just because guam, marianas, USVI and samoa don't currently have a grassroots movement for it doesn't mean they'd turn down statehood if it were offered.

JL

I was otherwise occupied last night and didn't read this until just now. Things are looking good for Joe and we're running out of time for anything to fundamentally rock the boat. The comparisons of the two current candidates to the last three in each Party is especially useful.

I'm glad you made no mention (that I can recall) of
national polling. The 51-43% Biden vote is meaningless, the "vanity vote" as Michale called it.

Good job, man!

"nypoet22 [10] -

That's an interesting take. But some of them might face population challenges that DC and PR don't. DC has something like 700K in it -- far more than the 400-500K that Wyoming has -- and PR certainly is above that. But Guam? And the Virgin Islands? Would they even have enough for a minimal House district? I don't know the answer to that, but it'd be worth looking into.

Also, don't just assume that they'd all be Democrats, either. The Pacific ones in particular rely on the US military for almost all their money. So it might mean adding GOP senators...."

The minimum population for statehood as set by Congress for the Northwest Territory back in the 1780's was 50,000. That law has never been changed.

Only Puerto Rico and D.C. have active pro statehood movements from a grassroots origin of their own residents.

There was talk from Marin Barry when he was mayor of D.C. of combining the Virgin Islands with D.C. to make a state, since the objection was that D.C. was too small in physical size. But there has never been any indication at all from the people of the Virgin Islands that they are at all interested in changing their tax exempt territorial status.

American Samoa are the only territory that are not even American citizens. Because of tribal land ownership rules on the island, they are also not interested in changing their status. There has been talk of American Samoa joining the state of Hawaii, rather than becoming a state by itself, but again that has just been talk.

In a 1982 plebiscite, Guam chose by a plurality vote commonwealth status(forty-nine percent). Statehood received twenty-six percent of the vote; status quo ten percent; while free association and independence each received four percent. A runoff chose commonwealth (seventy-three percent) over statehood (twenty-seven percent) as the preferred status. Guam then wrote a commonwealth constitution and petitioned Congress for a change in status. But Congress never took any action and the petition went nowhere.

The Northern Mariana Islands are currently a commonwealth, like Puerto Rico. It's people are American citizens. They share both a culture, native language, and racial makeup with the people of Guam, since they are all part of the same island chain. They are much smaller in size though. There has also been talk of combining the the Marianas with Guam as one state, but again it has been just talk, as there is no grassroots push for a further change in status. Also, there is still bad blood lingering between the people of Guam and the Marianas, as Guam supported America during World War 2, and the Marianas supported the Japanese.

So we are left with only 2 real prospects for new states: Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C.

I also understand nyp22 [5] and many others who comment this fall, as we watch Biden maintain a 6-10 point lead nationally and an apparent insurmountable advantage in the Electoral College, that we simply cannot overcome the shock of 2016. I'll believe these polls were worth dissecting in infinite detail when Biden takes the oath of office in January.

A final comment might relate to style. It's inevitable in politspeak, like in so many other areas where quantified data are being discussed, to start assigning agency to numbers. "North Carolina wobbled", "Ohio moved", "Georgia flipped", "South Carolina moved" all suggest that the states are personal entities that somehow can't make up their minds. In fact those movements are poll results, of greater or less reliability, even though EV dot com makes every effort only to use numbers from pollsters with good nonpartisan backgrounds.

After a few paragraphs of such writing, one begins to pull back and think, this isn't really what's happening here. What's happening is that small numbers of different people in these states have different opinions, ideas, and reactions to the polls and to national events, depending on who's asking them and when. The trends on a macro scale do support Biden having a continuing strong lead; we have to concede that or else abandon the enterprise. But to spend too much time on close analysis of such inherently fuzzy data begins to defeat credibility or at least to suggest that some time is being wasted.

I think we're all just too stunned or too drunk to comment. And, I can't believe the polls or your poll watch.

I didn't see Biden's town hall. I just can't take anymore. I have to wait for election day and beyond. Nothing else matters. I know you know what I mean.

OK, since there were no comments to answer here (maybe everyone was watching that knock-it-out-of-the-park Biden town hall tonight instead), I took the time (gasp!) to actually answer a Friday column's comments:

http://www.chrisweigant.com/2020/10/02/friday-talking-points-october-schadenfreudefest/#comment-169880

Enjoy!

-CW