There's not a damn thing you can say about anyone on this forum that changes that rock-bottom stench hole that you are definitely responsible for getting yourself bitch slapped into, but it's fun to watch you flailing in the repetitive pathetic attempts at it. *laughs*

So to recap: There's not a damn thing you could ever say to anyone here that will change either our sunny dispositions or your pathetic bitch slapped miserable stench hole. :)

i'm not as adamant as liz perhaps, but i do think method 3 has a huge validity problem due to the specific complexities of covid-19. yes, people who think they are recovered and then die of it are one form of mis-count (covid-related stroke cases are one large, systematic under-count of that type). another large, systematic error has occurred due to people not getting that sick, presuming it is the common cold and not reporting the illness at all.

overall, there's just too much sampling error for method 3 to reach any reasonable validity threshold.

JL

Tell me, what do you actually glean from your 35% death to case calculation?

I'm all ears, so to speak.

Last I checked, there was no requirement that Democrats MUST believe ALL women who make allegations against any powerful man! Do they deserve to be heard? .Yes, they should have an opportunity to make their allegations known and investigated if an investigation is possible... But that doesn’t mean I have to believe them!

If a twenty year old female claims George Washington raped her last weekend when she visited his grave, why would I feel that I needed to believe her? This is the media’s stupid problem of thinking that to be “impartial”, they have to report clearly dishonest comments as if they deserved merit. It’s not taking sides to point out the truth.

There is nothing wrong for the press to point out that what Trump refers to as “fake news”, the rest of the world calls “the truth”. That is not being partisan; it is refusing to promote dishonesty.

When you are done with your ignorant scolding, look up:

Method for calculating death-to-case ratio on the Center For Disease Control website - if you can spare a moment.

The web address is:

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section3.html

The death-to-case ratio section is roughly halfway down the page. The treatment is not long and the math is simple.

The COVID19 tracking pages hosted by WorldOMeter, Johns Hopkins and Bing all post death to case ratios updated several times a day. Let them know how upset you are about them doing that.

How does one provide a defense in light of that?

But, I couldn't agree more, Russ!

Gates is careful not to politicize this non-response as it most definitely should not be politicized.

Like the WHO, Gates can talk the head off a blue monkey about what needed and needs to be done by the US government but, the US government must choose to listen and act, accordingly.

Science, solutions, solidarity.

Biden is innocent! Case closed.

Another problem that seemed to be widespread for only states with Democratic governors was the issue of FEMA and the Fed’s taking custody of supply and equipment orders that the states were instructed to make because Trump believes if he refuses to do anything, he’ll be able to put all the blame on the states if there is a problem. One question: WHERE did those orders that FEMA hijacked end up?

It also seems like Native Americans should not have let it be known that they were offended by Trump referring to Elizabeth Warren as “Pocahontas”. Tribes were supposed to receive $8billion in virus aid, but none of that money has made it to the reservations for some “unknown” reason. “Runs-with-his-head-up-a-buffalo’s-ass” as Trump is known on most reservations, continues to show why he is unfit to lead!

No classification system is perfect.

To clarify, the mortality risk is computed as:

(Number Dead)/(Number Dead + number recovered)

If a patient dies of infection after being released as recovered, that patient has been mistakenly classified as recovered, which effectively underestimates the probability of a fatal case outcome.

The WorldOMeter, Bing and Johns Hopkins COVID19 tracking site all tabulate this statistic. The US figure as consistently been within the range of 35% +/- about 5%. Make what will of that what you will.

We can't expect a party's apparent positions to be entirely free of hypocrisy, because a party includes millions of people, who don't all agree. We can't expect an individual to be completely consistent, because people learn and change, both individually and culturally. For example, I think it's ok for me to say that I should have taken the allegations against Bill Clinton more seriously than I did. But an individual should have a more or less coherent position at any particular time.

We should not regard just any accusation as disqualifying. If the accuser has never been to the region where the offense is alleged to have happened, and wasn't even born until five years after the supposed event, then we should feel free to disregard the accusation.

On the other hand, there's no entitlement to a nomination. If we narrow our options a bit more than necessary, that's ok. The standard for disqualification should be much easier for an accuser to meet (equivalently, much harder for the accused to overcome) than the standards of process and certainty that we expect to be met in criminal prosecution. Incarcerating someone innocent is a grave wrong. Picking one nominee instead of another is not.

There are few enough people who have worked as subordinates of any potential candidate, and false accusations are rare enough, that we should lean fairly heavily in favor of believing the accuser. I think that I would want Biden to withdraw from the race, even if I thought he were otherwise a good candidate.

If I'm reading it right, it may substantially overstate the death rate. There is a period when a patient is at risk. Patients who die are noted as having died. Patients who remain at risk are not included in the denominator.

Joe Biden is feeling the noose tightening...

The lowest percentage is the fraction of a population who have died from the disease up to some point in time.

The middle percentage is the fraction of people who have caught the disease and died from the disease at some sampled point in time. Individuals with the disease who die will later in the outbreak are counted as alive.

The highest percentage only uses closed cases - that is, cases where an infected individual is classified as having either recovered from the illness or died from the illness. It is an estimate of "if I get sick, how likely am I to get well."

The second and third approaches give the same result after the epidemic is over.

The above is slightly simplified - "but close enough for government work."

The Tara Reade rape criminal complaint is *NOT* going away...

Biden campaign continues to get hit from all sides over it...

Why is Biden not addressing it??

Why is Biden not releasing his records to support his claims he is completely innocent here??

No answer???

Yea, that's all the answer that is needed...

Yea, let's see Canada take over *ALL* of the US world wide responsibilities...

HA, I say.. HA!!

Yea?? How many women causes did Harvey Weinstein support??

How many women causes did Bill Clinton support??

Of course Biden et al supports women's causes.. Gives him an ongoing supply of young edible women he can rape and sniff...

barring major illness, biden WILL be the democratic nominee.

It wasn't so long ago, you were ready to concede that Bernie was going to be the nominee.. :D

And, you can bet that this Tara Reade rape criminal complaint is taking it's toll on Biden's health.. :D

depending on how badly donald continues to screw up his response to the current crisis, biden MIGHT win the presidency.

Time will tell.. :D

POOR EXCUSE! The USA can't walk and chew gum at the same time!!!

Of course you consider it a poor excuse.. You hate America...

Give me a break! YOU have NO CREDIBILITY here MICHALE, NONE WHATSOEVER!

Yea, that's what ya'all Trump/America haters keep saying..

'Cept the FACTS clearly show that ya'all are **ALWAYS** wrong when it comes to President Trump..

How did that Russia Collusion delusion work out for ya??

FAIL...

How did that faux impeachment coup work out for ya??

EPIC FAIL...

It's ya'all who have no credibility when it comes to President Trump..

Yer just too stoopid to see it... :D

But, when President Trump wins re-election then you too shall know the FACTS and reality..

:D

Actually, there ARE records from the time and they detail the rape criminal complaints against Joe Biden..

But Joe Biden is refusing to release those records..

This "pause" is ,in a word, despicable. More so because we are talking about the God-damned United States of America, for crissakes!

The US had at least 19 people at the WHO or in contact with the WHO from the beginning.

Next time, listen to the WHO.

"What a problem, Came out of nowhere."

"Nobody would have ever thought a thing like this could have happened."

Nobody? The last two administrations built up a robust biodefense to specifically deal with a pandemic very similar to this one. That's the truly sad part. Trump did not have to think. The thinking had all been done for him. Give the order, problem dealt with. If dealt with well, take credit. If not, blame the last two administrations and promise to improve. He was given a win/win on a silver platter but so completely incompetent that he wiped all that off the table...

Trump once stated:

"I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters."

That is where Biden is now. Because Trump, through his own incompetence, has killed more than one on 5th Avenue. Literally.

Dan Quayle didn't misspell "potato". That was whoever compiled the list he was given.

Al Gore didn't claim to have invented the internet. He said he had sponsored the bill that was crucial in letting DARPAnet become the internet as we know it. And that's true.

And so on. The political damage of a narrative is entirely dependent on it being bogus.

Trump has been teflon because basically all the bad stuff said about him has been true. When details haven't been quite right, the truth has been worse. But Trump didn't tell people to inject bleach and stick a UV light up their where-the-sun-don't-shine. I listened to the remarks being described that way. They wouldn't particularly be rated as exemplary oration in a campaign for municipal drain commissioner, but they were closer to presidential than anything I've heard from him before.

The overall point is that there's reason to hope that, somewhere among all the potential therapies that researchers are looking into, there may be something that will turn out to make a big difference. Coronaviruses aren't durable like norovirus: maybe some therapy will be discovered that takes advantage of that, and decreases the effective replication rate within the body. The human body is much more translucent than we normally think of it as being: if you're in a dark room and you put your hand over a bright flashlight, a surprising amount of light comes through. Coronaviruses are somewhat more susceptible to degradation by light than most of what we're made of, and less able to repair damage than cells are. So maybe the right color of light at the right intensity, applied through the skin, will be a useful therapy. Not particularly likely, but it's an example showing that a vaccine isn't the only possible medical breakthrough that might turn up.

To get that interpretation of Trump's remarks, you have to fill in some gaps and give some benefit-of-the-doubt (which he hasn't earned). But at least it's possible to do so in this case. And politics always gets stuff wrong, so if anything comes back to bite him, this will be it.

barring major illness, biden WILL be the democratic nominee.

depending on how badly donald continues to screw up his response to the current crisis, biden MIGHT win the presidency.

either way, you and i would both get to vote for the winner ;)

feel better,

JL

i think you've left out an important step we need to take to fix the covid crisis. here is the correct order:

1. get everyone pie
2. fix campaign finance
3. stop people from dying

now that we've got our priorities straight, let's start baking!

JL

math-> english

the lowest percentage is how many of the world's overall population die

the middle percentage is how many people who catch the virus die

the highest percentage is how many people who are hospitalized with the virus die.

do i have that right?

JL

Method 1.

(Number of deaths/population)*100

This gives the lowest percentage (single digits). This is how businessmen and economists seem to view the epidemic.

Method 2.

(Number of deaths/number infections)*100

This gives an intermediate percentage and may be how your mayor or governor sees the epidemic.

Method 3

(Number of deaths/closed cases)*100

This gives the highest percentage (double digits). This how an Intensive Care Unit sees the problem. Also the patient and family of the patient in ICU.

None of the three methods is exactly right or wrong, but many are used without explicitly stating which method was used, which is very wrong.

There is no reason to expect the curves to be symmetrical. If the response had been late, but perfect when it finally came, then the curve would follow a logistic (sigmoidal) curve until the effect of the intervention was felt, and then fall to zero almost instantly. That's an unrealistic extreme case, but it shows the logic of the situation.

"As with practically everything else the Left tries to compare the US to the rest of the world, it just doesn't work..

The United States is unique... The only remaining superpower with vast responsibilities all over the world..

Of course it's going to LOOK like other countries are doing better..

That's because other countries have the luxury of concentrating on THEIR issues alone.. The US has to concentrate on OUR issues and every other country's issues...

This is simply more America bashing via President Trump hate...."

POOR EXCUSE! The USA can't walk and chew gum at the same time!!! Give me a break! YOU have NO CREDIBILITY here MICHALE, NONE WHATSOEVER!

Joe Biden will NOT be President Of The United States....

There is a real and serious question if Joe Biden will even be the Democrat Party nominee...

You heard it here first...

Surgeon appt this morning then taking the wife to the beach, since we missed doing it on her b-day...

See ya'all in a bit....

"The world is gray. And as uncomfortable as that makes people, gray is where the real change happens. Black and white is easy. Gray is the place women can come together out of the glare of the election and speak our truths, our doubts, our hopes, our convictions and test them against the light and the dark," she wrote.
https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/alyssa-milano-tara-reade-biden

It's really funny..

The **ONLY** "gray areas" are when Democrats leaders are accused...

Clinton rapes Juanita Broderick... "Gray Area"...

Biden rapes Tara Reade... "Gray Area"...

President Trump?? Justice Kavanaugh... Perfectly black/white..

It's UNCANNY...... :eyeroll:

It's obvious to ANYONE who has more than 2 brain cells to rub together that the ONLY thing at work here is a Democrat Party agenda...

You people are not fooling anyone.. 'cept maybe yerselves...

This additional information is renewing attention on Biden's behavior and has put pressure on the presumptive Democratic nominee to respond, which he has not yet done directly. At the same time, President Trump's allies have been eager to pounce on the allegations and amplify them, accusing the media of downplaying the story relative to allegations against Republican men, particularly pointing to the frenzy around allegations against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation process.

What have I been saying???

This is NOT going to go away... This is Joe Biden's Monica Lewinsky... It's going to grow and grow and grow until Biden is all wrung out from trying to defend the indefensible...

The only question is will Biden quit or will Democrats toss him...

As an aside, it's amazing that it's many of the die-hard Left Wing rags that are pounding the Biden campaign hard..

I guess that just reflects how serious this is and how much danger the Biden campaign is in...

The second woman, Lorraine Sanchez, a former colleague of Ms. Reade’s in the mid-1990s, said she recalled Ms. Reade describing an incident of harassment by her former boss. She provided a statement outlining her account to The Times.

Tara Reade has something that Blasey-Ford only dreamed of having..

Substantiation.... Witnesses who recall the same things that Reade recalls...

OK, that takes care of the NY Grime article..

On to NPR...

Joe Biden has a pattern....

Yep.. By his silence, Biden is really pissing Democrats off..

That is why they are re-assessing Biden's suitability as the Democrat nominee...

“If the election was held today, I don’t think he’d lose any support,” she said. “But this is a huge deal that’s not going away. The story is going to be on the hypocrisy, and that is the No. 1 thing voters loathe.”

Yep... Hypocrisy is the BIGGEST problem Democrats have.. It's right up there with corruption...

Democrats WALLOW in hypocrisy..

One only has to look at their racist beliefs.. They were the Party that gave us the KKK and now they claim to be against racism when, in fact, it's simply racism of another color..

Hypocrisy, thy name is Democrat Party...

One person who received a version of these talking points said it was pulled back by the campaign several hours later because the campaign was revising its strategy. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity to disclose the private communication.

As I predicted, the Tara Reade rape criminal complaint is have a serious effect on Biden's campaign...

“It’s difficult for survivors to see that a woman who has more corroborating sources than most survivors have in similar situations is being tossed aside and actively being weaponized by cynical political actors,” said Shaunna Thomas, a founder of UltraViolet, a women’s rights advocacy group that is involved in the effort to push the campaign. “It would be an incredible moment of leadership for Joe Biden to show up.”

Agreed.. If Biden "shows up" and actually has an impactful response, he might survive this..

But some lame denial is going to do more harm than good..

Joe Biden has to "show up" in every sense of the term..

Will he have the moral courage to do so??

I mean, keep in mind.. Biden pooh-poohed away all the other sexual assaults with some lame "I come from a different time" bullshit.. But, of course, Democrats lapped it up and gave him a pass..

I don't ever recall a time where rape was socially acceptable...

Biden is not going to be able to 'aww shucks, you know me' his way out of this...

Anyone who doesn't agree is living in fantasy land..

The total derailment and decimation of a Democrat Primary campaign..

Again, this comes from the NY GRIME!! If ya can believe it...

Democratic Frustration Mounts as Biden Remains Silent on Sexual Assault Allegation

Activists and women’s rights advocates have urged Mr. Biden to address a former aide’s allegation that he sexually assaulted her in 1993. His lack of response has angered them.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/us/politics/tara-reade-joe-biden.html

Who was it who said last week that Democrats are gonna get pissed if Biden continues to hide from Tara Reade??

I did!! :D Well, to be fair, JL and Chris Cilleza said similar things... So, they deserve credit too..

But Joe is going to continue to ignore this.. Or, possibly, put up some milquetoast crooked-finger rant, "I did not have sexual relations with that woman.." type BS...

How long til the Democrats go back to Bernie, hat and hand and beg Bernie to re-activate his campaign???

Naw, I don't think that will happen.. Democrats hate Bernie even more then Joe Biden, Rapist...

Going to make for a VERY interesting summer.. Who will Democrats recruit?? :D

Stay Tuned...

As with practically everything else the Left tries to compare the US to the rest of the world, it just doesn't work..

The United States is unique... The only remaining superpower with vast responsibilities all over the world..

Of course it's going to LOOK like other countries are doing better..

That's because other countries have the luxury of concentrating on THEIR issues alone.. The US has to concentrate on OUR issues and every other country's issues...

This is simply more America bashing via President Trump hate....

Release the records, Joe... What are you afraid of?? What are you hiding??

Man up and do the right thing...

It is also a mess — for the Biden campaign; for voters struggling to figure out what to make of these allegations; for those, including the women on Biden’s list of potential running mates, who have argued for taking such claims seriously. Biden has not been accused of any similar misconduct during his decades in public life. There are inconsistencies in Reade’s story, including her contention that she filed a complaint with congressional authorities. If she had, it would have automatically triggered an inquiry that would have been known to — and remembered by — Biden’s staff.

There are no 2 ways about it.. The Biden campaign is hurting.. It's hemorrhaging support and goodwill.. And it will continue to hemorrhage until such time as Biden addresses the issue completely and honestly *AND* releases all his records from that time...

"These are the facts of the case. And they are undisputed."
-Captain Smilin' Jack Ross, A FEW GOOD MEN

Since then, a few more data points have emerged that tip the balance of evidence some important degrees in Reade’s direction. They make it imperative that Biden address these allegations directly, rather than through a spokesman, and that the Biden campaign do its utmost to unearth whatever information may be contained in his Senate archives relevant to Reade’s claims.

And therein lies the rub...

MANY facts have been released that favor Tara Reade's version of events..

Especially the FACT that Joe Biden *CONTINUES* to ignore the issue...

And yet, people STILL don't want to believe Reade's version of events..

Which is ironic considering how much ya'all invested in believing Blasey-Ford who turned out to be nothing but an opportunistic bitch...

Once again, the facts clearly show that all that is at play here is the old -D vs -R bigotry...

No other conclusion is supported..

The new Tara Reade revelations make it imperative that Biden address the allegations directly
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-new-tara-reade-revelations-make-it-imperative-that-biden-address-the-allegations-directly/2020/04/29/1d2f8e74-8a58-11ea-8ac1-bfb250876b7a_story.html

Even WaPoop, who couldn't hit sand if they fell off a camel, agrees with me and JL that Biden NEEDS to address the Tara Reade Rape Criminal Complaint...

Only a total dipshit moron would believe that Joe Biden can remain silent on this..

Which is, with a few notable exceptions, everyone here...

:eyeroll:

Biden dropped off 1,875 boxes of “photographs, documents, videotapes, and files” and 415 gigabytes of electronic records to the University of Delaware in 2012. The university initially said it expected to make the records “available to the public two years after Biden’s last day in elected public office.” In April 2019, just hours before Biden announced his current presidential bid, the university changed its mind, and said the papers wouldn't be released until either December 31, 2019 or until two years after Biden “retires from public life,” whichever comes later.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/university-of-delaware-execs-which-are-keeping-bidens-senate-records-secret-have-close-ties-to-the-former-vp

If Joe Biden is completely innocent, he would release those records...

The mere fact that they were promised to be released and then that promise was reneged on proves beyond ANY doubt that Joe Biden has a history of sexual assaults and rapes..

What are you afraid of Joe?? What are you hiding???

Be a man... Release the records....

JL,

michael j. stern in USA Today goes over some of the things that are fishy about tara reade's story. these things don't necessarily make it false, but they do give any reasonable person pause when it comes to believing what she says on the subject.

Just as there were "fishy" things about blasey-ford's story...

But everyone here believed her without question.

Hell, everyone here believed JULIE SWETNIK, hook line and sinker!! And THAT really says something bad about ya'all...

So, why is it that ya'all swallow any bullshit story when it's an -R person accused but never believe any real rape criminal complaint when it's a -D person accused???

THAT's the question that needs to be answered...

Shut the fuck up, Kick. Your contributions here, along with Michale's own gems, have helped to make this place what it has become. You can be proud, too, I guess.

Abso-frakin'-loutly...

The difference between Victoria and I is that I accept my responsibility in how things are here..

Like a coward, Victoria shirks her's and always blame someone else...

Good call, Liz... :D

Russ,

. Kavanaugh was known to drink until he blacked out during the timeframe from when the allegation claims the assault occurred.

Actually, that's not factually accurate.. But why let facts ruin your perfectly good wet dream..

He claimed to have no memory of the assault ever happening...

And all of Blasey-Ford's friends and family ALSO claimed no memory of the party that the bullshit assault happened at.

Hell, Ford couldn't remember getting home or where the alleged party was..

So, if your using no memory as a "proof" that Kavanaugh was a black out drunk, then yer more frak'ed in the head then I first thought.. :D

And THAT says something...

Kavanaugh, having admitted to drinking until he blacked out on occasion

Facts to support?? No?? Of course not..

Biden was not a black out drunk during the time period in which this allegation lies. So when he says he didn’t do this, I have no reason to doubt his memory or his word.

Beyond the ALL WOMEN ARE TO BE BELIEVED, a mantra YOU supported to the hilt when it wasn't a Dumbocrat being accused..

The mere fact is, Biden has a history of this sort of thing... This is the first of many rape criminal complaints that Biden will receive..

Irregardless of all that, YOU were the one who said that President Trump was going to be removed from office via the Dumbocrats and their faux impeachment coup..

You have absolutely ZERO credibility here.. :D