Put that in your pipe and smoke it!

Why Elizabeth, thank you! Prism, eh?

I've lived in the San Bernardino mountains since 1985.

I'm originally from Dee-troit, the Motor City.

I picked up the nickname "Cadillac" at Army Basic Training because my last name rhymes with Cadillac.

The method is well accepted in the public health community. It's in text books. It is not perfect. It assumes the likelihood of dying from a disease is relatively constant over the sample period. You can test this assumption by breaking your analysis into smaller time fragments but it won't buy you much this early in the epidemic. It uses up too many degrees of freedom and I'm not going to bother to explain that to you.

For a Canadian you are awfully twitchy.

Now explain your percent mortality in closed + open cases = 35%.

You know what, TS? Don't bother.

Example from the Johns Hopkins website: 8:00 am Eastern Time

Total confirmed cases: 164610
Total deaths:3170
Total recovered:5945

Number of open cases = 164610-(3170+5945)=155495
Number of closed cases = (3170 + 5945) = 9115

Only 5% of confirmed are closed cases. In 95% of the cases we don't know if the patient is going to recover or die.

Percent Mortality in closed cases = 3170/9115=.348

Percent Mortality in closed + open cases = 3170/155495 = .020 or 2%

Hey what a Co-ink-dink! That is close to the correctly computed Chinese Estimate! The US is doing as well as China. Nothing to worry about.

Nope

It is: Mortality = deaths/(recovered+deaths)

In other words the closed case population. During the early stages of an epidemic the number of open cases is much larger than the recovered cases.

Early in the US epidemic many news outlets reported
death rates as: Mortality = deaths/total cases.

This mixes open and closed cases. It assumes nobody in the open cases is going to die! It dramatically underestimates mortality during the exponential phase of an outbreak - creating a lag effect.

By coincidence the flawed popular press US estimate of around 2% closely matched the Chinese estimate which was computed correctly (WorldOMeter is a Chinese site). Early on, WorldOMeter showed the computation. I don't know why they stopped doing so.

The US is finally catching a bit of a break: the US exponential growth rate has been slowly but steadily declining over the last 10 days or so. You can see this at the Johns Hopkins site if you select the exponential view option.

The break may be temporary - New York and New Jersey were early hot spots and the rest of the US population is in its early exponential phase.

"Slapped upside the head," were you? That would explain lots of things. *grin*

Lighten up, Liz. All that taking it upon yourself to play board mother and determine/pronounce whose heart is in the right place has obviously taken its toll. You should allow yourself to stop doing it; although I'm sure you believe you mean well.

Don means well and, his heart is in the right place.

I "mean well" too so I hope you'll get on board defending me and the ginormous blood-pumping nucleus of my circulatory system as we attempt to shine a little introspective light onto the board trolling conversational narcissist attempting to hijack and devolve near every subject of political commentary into a discussion about himself and his obsession, creating an infinite number of chances for him to monologue about a topic he's interested in: Don Harris.

In the alternative, I will be happy to join Don Harris in similar author-trolling exertions that would make his "big money" repetitive verbal diarrhea seem infinitesimally small: You Make the Call.

Don means well and, his heart is in the right place.

While it's infinitely easier to get defensive rather than introspective, the paragraphs you're taking issue with are an accurate depiction of you and your modus operandi, and to that I would simply add:

You're a wee small piss-ant in New Jersey taking issue with a dead on balls accurate description of your multiple years of attempts to turn nearly every totally unrelated issue on this forum into a discussion about yourself and your own personal obsession. You are so persuaded that your personal chosen course of action is special/unique/optimal that you therefore routinely blandly dismiss the opinions and counterarguments of others as flawed or unsuitable. After countless years of the same dynamic performed ad nauseam, you still seem to be expecting some sort of surreal success from following these methods of yours that have repeatedly failed.

So, these mortality rates are based on closed cases. But, doesn't that give you an over-estimate, inherently.

Sorry, but this just doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Thanks for taking the time to post that. I'm quite familiar with your first and second links.

Unfortunately, I'm still wondering where you got the figure of a 35 % mortality rate!?

I guess I got a bit wordy. :) Awaiting moderation.

I use three web sites for collecting raw data. I think I have posted all them on CW.com before , but to consolidate:

http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://bing.com/covid?form=msntrk

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

All three sites are gathering data from automated internet searches of public health sites around the world. At any given time their numbers are virtually identical. The reason I use three is that each has little features I like: better mapping, superior data plotting, one has what amounts to a moderated discussion section among health care professionals.

None of the sites currently compute estimated mortality of the virus. The WorldOMeter site used to do so, and I crossed checked my computations against them to validate what I was doing *. WorldOMeter still had a section devoted to the math behind estimating mortality rates DURING an epidemic...I think it's still buried there somewhere - but haven't checked and it's a bit hard to navigate.

The most important rule is to only include closed cases in your mortality analysis. A closed case is one where a patient is known to have had the disease and either lived or died from it. An open case is one where the patient is known to have contracted the disease, but has not yet died or recovered. Hospitals etc keep track of this stuff. During the early exponential phase of an epidemic, the fate of most patients is still open, you don't know if they will live or die.

If you assume all the open cases will recover, than you dramatically underestimate projections of mortality. This what many early reports of COVID-19 in the US were doing. They were projecting 2% mortality when the unbiased rate was more in the range of 30-40%. That may comforting, but it is not realistic. Trump and Trump supporters really latched onto it though...

This 2% low ball was actually pretty close to what China reported. Except China really did have a very low mortality rate compared to nearly everywhere else, and they were doing their computations correctly! By the way, China runs the WorldOMeter site. It checks out against other sources of info around the globe.

* My profession uses the same math, so I'm pretty comfortable with it.

I just took a quick look at DU and say just one reply.

It said more than a hundred or more ever could and not a word was written.

So sad ...

It's very important to refrain from adding to the dissemination of bad information.

Where are you getting that 35% figure?

"Trump says keeping US Covid-19 deaths to 100,000 would be a ‘very good job’

President extends social distancing rules to 30 April, saying open for Easter plans were only ‘aspirational’"

Trump treats COVID-19 like he plays golf - he moves the ball if thinks you aren't looking.

As of 8am today there are 142,000 open cases in the USA. Approximately 35% of open cases have resulted in patient death to date. It's reasonable to expect about 50,000 deaths are still in the pipe line as of today...and growing exponentially every day. It is still 12 more days to Easter Sunday.

I am curious how many ventilators were sent to China. Trump thought he could keep the virus out of America simply by ignoring it.

Yep. We discussed it before, and here we go again: Trump cannot con himself out of this virus. While he's obviously not responsible for the virus, he and the right-wing echo chamber and their downplaying of this disease and choruses of "hoax" and bashing of the media and anyone who deigned to try to inform the public regarding the seriousness and the lies too numerous to list... it's downright criminal! The Fox News and right-wing types continue to underestimate the seriousness of this disease, frequently refer to it as a "Democrat hoax" because they have the unfortunate bad sense to believe President Pathological and the Fox News propaganda echoing Trump.

We need to institute mandatory blood tests for everyone.

Yes! Or at the very least, the sputum tests they keep claiming there are (what number are they up to now?) ~5 million and everyone who wants a test can get a test (total bollocks).

So very happy to hear that you are better!

Thanks, Russ! I just wish I knew whether or not I already had it. We were exposed to a person they wouldn't test, and they wouldn't test us either; however, we all did test negative for flu. We had the vast majority of symptoms, but none of us could prove we had been around a person who tested positive for the C-19. Fast forward to last week, I was finally informed I had been exposed to a person who actually did get a test that came back positive for C-19, but now I'm not sick and therefore the sputum test would likely be useless. Like you said, we definitely need the blood testing wherein we could make sure we had the antibodies and be put on the front lines helping instead of sheltering in place. We could donate blood with antibodies too! It's so frustrating.

That you weren’t able to get tested to confirm if you had it is infuriating!

You know it!

As a person who has suffered from asthma my whole life, this is one illness I am definitely hoping to avoid.

I'm sure I don't have to tell you, but you being in contact with a first responder puts you at greater risk. You absolutely must avoid getting this crud if you have asthma.

Big hugs to you, my friend! Stay well!

Hugs right back at you and yours, and I better hear from you that y'all are staying well. :)

I like that JHU version myself. There are similar versions for multiple states. Example:

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Good to "see" you, TS. :)

While there is no point in playing the game offered here as if I were Trump, I will play as if I were me.

Oh, shocker... Don Harris is going to take the completely unrelated topic of the Trump administration's decision to send almost 18 tons of personal protection equipment to China and blame others for the shortage we're facing here in the United States and turn that into a discussion about himself... again.

If you doubt I would have done this and you have the time to LOOK IT UP YOURSELF, you may be able to find the letter to the editor I wrote on this subject many years ago published in the Newark Star-Ledger.

If you doubt I couldn't care less to discuss Don Harris in regards to a wholly unrelated topic, maybe you can find the multiple years of comments that I, multiple other posters, and even the author of this blog have written on this subject for many years and published right here in the comments section.

This may come as a shock to you, Don, but:

Everything isn't about you.

It's time for citizens to end the partisan "games" and fix the blame where it belongs- both CMPs and their dependence on big money that put Trump in office to begin with.

This may come as a veritable shock to you, Don, but not everything going on in the world is related to your failed attempt at political activism.

Wake up.

Great idea... you first.

You are SUCH a party pooper. :)

This one's for you!

The planet dies... No one cries
So hard to believe
If there was somewhere else to go
You know I'd be the first to leave

Take me to the Kaptin
And tell him why I'm here
I want to stay in your world
While my world disappears

I'm not sure if the days of plague are to blame but, I've been revisiting an old favourite Canadian rock band out of Vancouver.

The band has undergone many changes since their first release in 1977 and they are still performing today, albeit without their gold standard lead singer, Ron Tabak, who left the band in 1981 and subsequently died in a cycling accident in 1984, days before a planned reunion.

Anyway, here is an audio clip of the tune ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjb75geCcMI

Thanks, Patrick.

I live in a small town in Nebraska. Our county has not been affected by the virus. On my way to the gas station yesterday I noticed whole blocks of houses had put their Christmas lights back up. This makes people smile and gets your mind off the pandemic, if only for a while.

I hope this catches on to other areas.

Satisfying.

I suppose it's no excuse, but we're MEN! Dammit Scotty, self control is not a Hallmark of our gender!

Thank you for being, as always, the soft voice of civility. I was born across the river from Windsor, Ontario, and the majority of my North American family tree live in Oh, Canada! If the States don't work out I'd be delighted to live in Canada. Although I live in Southern California I live at 7000' so it's not like I'm afraid of a few feet (6-7 feet and counting this winter) of snow, haha!

Kick,

If this is true, what a catastrophic decision!

Don Harris,

What does CMP stand for?

Michale,

Why have you not come out to play? I don't suppose it's because CW's "Trump botched it big-time" rant is especially irrefutable, is it? I notice you rarely challenge what CW writes. Is that what being a troll is like, just hoping to annoy someone in the comments section rather than addressing the subject (in this case, CW's rant) at hand? Typical Repug, won't answer a direct question. Sigh.

And, that is why your arguments on this issue all fall down.

There is a time and place for every kind of language, Don. :)

As for the rest of it, I may be confusing the Canadian and American relief packages but aren't people entitled not to go to work in order to protect their health and that of their family members? If not, then that needs to be added to the legislation.

As individuals we can stop the spread by staying home and following all of the guidelines set out by public health departments. Frankly, I trust the CDC less today than I did a few months ago.

Testing protocols should probably be changed to include everyone involved in essential services. But, there aren't even enough tests for that.

This is what being put behind the eight ball looks like ...

I am curious how many ventilators were sent to China. Trump thought he could keep the virus out of America simply by ignoring it. That might have worked for keeping his daughter Tiffany out of his life, but viruses don’t need or want your attention to thrive.

We need to institute mandatory blood tests for everyone. It has shocked scientists how many people have been found to have anti-bodies for the virus that never showed any signs of the illness — meaning that we’ve had countless “typhoid Mary’s” (or “COVID Chris’ and Christie’s” to get with the times) walking around infecting people for weeks. It also means that our estimates for how long this virus stays contagious in a person are probably way off!

So very happy to hear that you are better! That you weren’t able to get tested to confirm if you had it is infuriating! As a person who has suffered from asthma my whole life, this is one illness I am definitely hoping to avoid. Big hugs to you, my friend! Stay well!

R

If governments refuse to take this fight seriously and institute national shutdowns with all the essential exceptions and at the necessary expense of economies, then we all know at an individual level what we need to do.

It's a scary proposition, nevertheless, when citizens understand how to respond to a pandemic in a more serious manner than their leaders. It certainly doesn't bode well for what we will inherit, beyond the plague.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

It looks like the exponential growth rate of confirmed cases in the United States has been declining slightly over the last 9 days....but not by much. We went from near 0 to 120,000 confirmed case in less than 30 days.

If you said you donated the medical supplies of the United States to China, you are correct.

Bonus points if you said you donated 17.8 tons of it.

The United States Announces Assistance To Combat the Novel Coronavirus

PRESS STATEMENT

MICHAEL R. POMPEO, SECRETARY OF STATE

FEBRUARY 7, 2020

This week the State Department has facilitated the transportation of nearly 17.8 tons of donated medical supplies to the Chinese people, including masks, gowns, gauze, respirators, and other vital materials. These donations are a testament to the generosity of the American people.

Today, the United States government is announcing it is prepared to spend up to $100 million in existing funds to assist China and other impacted countries, both directly and through multilateral organizations, to contain and combat the novel coronavirus. This commitment – along with the hundreds of millions generously donated by the American private sector – demonstrates strong U.S. leadership in response to the outbreak.

This assistance only adds to what the United States has done to strengthen health security programs around the world. For the last 20 years, the United States through USAID has invested over one billion dollars to strengthen the capacity of more than 25 countries to prevent, detect, and respond to existing and emerging infectious disease threats. Since 2015, under our commitment to the Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA), this support has helped improve surveillance and laboratory systems, risk communication, outbreak response, and address the rising threat of anti-microbial resistance.

The United States is and will remain the world’s most generous donor. We encourage the rest of the world to match our commitment. Working together, we can have a profound impact to contain this growing threat.

https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-announces-assistance-to-combat-the-novel-coronavirus/

Double bonus points if you said you then blamed the Obama administration for the United States lack of medical supplies.

Thank you for playing. :)

Now it's time to play a quick round of that exciting new game show that puts you in a real-life situation and asks: You Make the Call. Anyone can play along... so put on your thinking caps, and off we go.

The time is early February 2020, and you are a member of the Trump administration. The world and your country is facing a novel caronavirus situation where thousands of people from multiple countries have already lost their lives. In the United States (you have sworn to protect and defend), 11 of your citizens have already tested positive for the disease so you already know the deadly virus is here.

And now, your mission: You are the Trump Administration tasked with the decision regarding the distribution of medical supplies to fight the impending pandemic... so what do you do? Keep in mind that you are the Trump Administration, and...

You Make the Call:

____________________________________________
____________________________________________
____________________________________________
____________________________________________

Time's up, contestants... and now let's see how you did.

continued...

(from the Gaming Out A Future Pandemic column)

Sorry, Liz, but you could not be more wrong [about testing seeming quaint, at this point]! Testing is the key to defeating this virus.

Oh, I agree … I just meant 'quaint' in the context of testing without a serious nationwide shutdown and not enough testing kits means the virus is going to spread everywhere and testing, will just confirm that now.

The virus is so far ahead of any surveillance/testing/containment/mitigation efforts in the US that only a serious national shutdown is going to defeat it.

Of course, that shouldn't stop the surveillance effort in the meantime, I suppose … but the US doesn't even have a prioritized testing protocol at this late stage!!!

AS Gates warns, rich countries who do not have a serious shutdown now will likely have to do it all over again in fall/winter, no matter how they may hope that they've stopped the virus.

I have read Gates' proposal as presented on his blog and he is very flexible with regards to details such as times, distances and pretty much everything. He's all for expanding mass testing of the public for viral exposure...as much of it as possible With testing you get a lot of flexibility about defining boundaries.

I don't think he wants to run a program, he is just advocating distancing as needed.

I think Gates' primary goal is pour cold water all over Trump's "We have to focus on the economy" nonsense. I think he would like to see Trump as far from the COVID-19 War Room as possible. Maybe a nice golf course in Scotland.

Isn't that the only way to prevent the spread and ensure the healthcare system doesn't go into overload?

Not nearly enough.

EM - 26

Gates' quarantine in place is a sound idea. Essential personnel in essential professions should be fire walled from other: like water tight compartments in a warship...so a breach in one compartment doesn't compromise the entire effort. The states and counties are sort like compartments - our governmental apparatus isn't entirely irrational. Build on what you have and do it quickly.

But of course each of us has a personal responsibility in this pandemic. Too many Italians are STILL not following the law. My family members in the U S, who I beg and plead to take COVID-19 seriously, continue to go out to eat and ignore facts. (And not just true-blue Trumpsters, either!)

That is very concerning.

I am seeing the opposite here where I live … people smiling but getting out of your way to stay 6 feet apart.

You are so right our own personal responsibility. People should know better but, many don't. This is where leadership from the top down is essential.

He talked about both of these efforts continuing beyond the plague.

The US and Canada are still reacting to this outbreak in piecemeal fashion.

When will we finally start being proactive, taking the good advice of Bill Gates and instituting nationwide shelter in place orders for two months with the obvious exceptions for essential services.

The quarantines that Trump is talking about make no sense whatsoever.

What is your country doing to prevent the scenario you outline?

Anybody think the pews are going to be loaded with people? Anybody think Trump is going to be in a public pew with real citizens....unless he's wearing a moon suit?

I predict that the US will be in very bad shape for a very long time if it doesn't completely shelter in place for the next couple of months, at least.

What do you suppose the prediction interval for that is?

Important, but don't forget there is roughly a 2-14 day period from opening an individual case to closing that case. Our estimates of mortality and length of stay in hospital are currently based on about 4000 closed cases. The last time the number of known cases was that small was about 12 days ago. Given the time lag and nonlinear growth model I suspect prediction intervals are pretty, pretty broad. Not good news for logistical planning purposes.

This is Pearl Harbor sized intelligence failure owned by Trump and his hunches.

What do you think the chances are the pews are filled on Easter?

https://bing.com/covid?form=msntrk

Any beer lovers in the audience (rhetorical question mark).

Pity the poor craft beer businesses. There are 8 of them in my home town and lots more regionally. All of them produce righteous product and a couple are downright world class. Only one of the 8 distributes in cans. All them rely on bars and restaurants to distribute their product. They are dying. I am looking into craft brew take out - haven't found any yet.

Beer is minor in the grand scheme, but know some of these folks and it's sad to see. They put souls and pretty much all of their capital into their business. Just when things were looking good----.

Trump of course makes any situation worse, so it should surprise no one that the United States isn't at the 'beginning of the beginning' of COVID-19 cases.

But of course each of us has a personal responsibility in this pandemic. Too many Italians are STILL not following the law. My family members in the U S, who I beg and plead to take COVID-19 seriously, continue to go out to eat and ignore facts. (And not just true-blue Trumpsters, either!)

Right out of the gate, OMG thank you, Chris! We needed a rant, and my apologies and a warning that I am going to add to it. I confess I haven't read the remainder of the post yet so you'll understand if my rant repeats some of your rant. Off we go.

About that "Trump administration ass-covering," we are currently receiving by the boatload what can only be described as ass-covering propaganda email, some from quite high up the chain. Emails praising teams "working for months quietly behind the scenes" to prepare "blah, blah, blah." You wouldn't even believe it. All total bullshit. The tenor of the latest communications are cheerleading types, and I would like to share a few sentences lifted verbatim:

For those of us in this fight, while we are certainly feeling the burden of what we face, we are fortunate to not be out of work feeling powerless. We are in fact powerful, and extremely fortunate to be contributing to the nation’s response....

As we go through these few weeks that will surely go down in history, I wanted to look back on this week in military history. This past Wednesday, March 25, was Medal of Honor Day, commemorating the first Medals of Honor being awarded on March 25, 1863. The very first was presented to Private Jacob Parrott of the 33rd Ohio Infantry, who participated in a daring raid behind Confederate lines to capture a railroad train at Big Shanty, GA. He was captured and severely beaten but refused to talk, and then managed to escape. He eventually made it back to friendly lines and remained in the Union Army the remainder of the war.

Did you catch that description of "few weeks"? Few weeks. M'kay. This isn't the only recent communication suggesting this will end in a "few weeks." Now y'all have another idea of what might be coming next.

Did you catch those messages of "you're lucky to have a job" and "be good soldiers and keep your mouth shut"? Nice, huh?

We have boatloads of these CYA communications praising the "early preparation" of "leadership" and the pathetic cheerleading variety. Meanwhile, facts on the ground are a veritable shitstorm.

Rant over.

After the 2009 swine flu and the Ebola outbreak, Obama created the pandemic preparedness office at the National Security Council. Trump disbanded it.

In the transfer of power between administrations, the ingoing and outgoing staffs are required to participate in gaming a few exercises that the outgoing administration thinks are the most pressing danger. A pandemic was one of those exercises. The incoming staff barely paid attention.

The U.S. intelligence community warned Trump in a 2019 annual threat report for 2019 that a pandemic was one of the greater threats we faced. Trump did nothing.

And on and on.

I think once the bodies start piling up, Trump will be lucky to make it to November. The 25th amendment or another impeachment, this time with full support of the Senate Republicans is going to look like a really good option all around.

Not that Pence is much better…

Frankly, I wish I could believe the election itself will take place as it should whether via mail-in ballots or any other correct protocol.

Now, THAT is no joking matter!

You don't really think the election may not happen, do you?

Well, all the more reason the governors need to start acting as one to get beyond the plague and, FAST!

They also need to act as one in instituting shelters in place or whatever they want to call it.

They need to fill the leadership void in the country and act as if there is no federal government.

Is that the best you got?

When Trump was elected, this is precisely what worried us the most - how would he deal with a crisis? We all intuitively knew the answer: not well.

Now that this intuition has been frightfully confirmed, what do we do now?

I wish I could believe enough of the country had the same feelings, to ensure that the president will lose the coming election. Frankly, I wish I could believe the election itself will take place as it should whether via mail-in ballots or any other correct protocol.

I would say the media isn't mercilessly mocking and shaming the president and his crew because "the country needs to come together in a crisis." Except the media hasn't really mocked and shamed them in the previous three years (except the liberal opinion bubble) because "the country needs to respect and honor the man who was sworn in as president on January 20, 2017, no matter how shamefully, incompetently, venally, and corruptly he acts, speaks, and behaves."

Sorry to be so down. Thanks for the 'Talking Points' of tell it like it is.