i fundamentally disagree with the popular vote count being about "vanity."

I totally agree.

the popular vote is a measure of just that, how popular a candidate is overall.

Exactly.

the electoral college and caucus systems determine who wins the election, and they exist to protect voting blocs that might otherwise be drowned out.

Exactly. In the Electoral College, almost every state awards 100% of its electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote, allowing ideologues to take the votes of those strongly partisan large states for granted and claim they should therefore be discounted as "vanity"... utterly nonsensical. You will often hear Republicans and right-leaners routinely discount the voters of California and New York, while they very rarely acknowledge the same about Texas. Simply take out California alone, and Trump wins the popular vote, they'll claim. Try that by taking out Texas, your so-called "vanity vote."

While it's obviously foolish for candidates to campaign where they are "guaranteed" to win or lose, it's equally foolish to discount the voters that reside in those states. Besides, due to ever-changing demographics, Texas is moving into the "swing state" column in the near future... ignore that, please. :)

however, the popular vote matters in terms of the political capital an official gets upon being elected. basically until you get a popular majority you'll be seen as a fluke.

I know, right! Trumped by the popular vote. *laughs*

The vanity vote is also meaningless in a Presidential election.. Not complicated.

We're discussing multiple state primaries wherein there are several different ways to determine the winner of a state and to distribute a state's pledged electors, which isn't exactly the same as the Electoral College system wherein 50 states and the District of Columbia generally award electors based on popular vote.

So to recap: Idiots who can't understand nuance are prone to claim everything is exactly the same. Your false equivalency is alive and well. #SSDD

Therefore, a higher than usual GOP incumbent RETIREMENT rate means more GOP seats are in play.

Sort of. Candidates in the House of Representatives face reelection every two years; therefore, retirements in some heavily gerrymandered districts aren't likely to flip whether or not the incumbent retires. But in those districts across America that are competitive (whether or not gerrymandered), the incumbent advantage is removed... and when no advantage exists in more competitive districts, then more seats become "in play" even though every seat is actually always "in play."

That's why the top of the ticket is so important to the down-ballot races. So everyone should vote whether or not you think you're vote doesn't matter, and...

** Vote Blue **
No Matter Who

“I think I might find it harder to vote for Bernie than for Trump,” the billionaire banker said, though he pointed out that the Democratic primary has just kicked off and the nomination is very much still up for grabs. “There’s a long time between now and then. The Democrats would be working very hard to find someone who is as divisive as Trump. But with Bernie they would have succeeded.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/21/former-goldman-sachs-ceo-hard-to-vote-for-bernie-116592

It's an uphill battle for Bernie..

That much is certain...

Although...the whole "Vanity Vote" concept kinda sucks. Living in CA I knew that it didn't matter who I voted for, Hillary was going to win my deep blue state. So both my vote and every GOP vote in California were meaningless in the face of Hillary's majority, or "vanity votes."

If everyone who believed a candidate was going to win a state election decided not to vote, the other candidate could win with one vote. Thoughts to ponder.

Likewise any vote in every state that doesn't pick the winner (Dems in red States & Repugs in blue states) is in essence a "vanity vote."

See above. Texas is a de facto "nonvoting" state because so many voters have believed their vote doesn't matter. This scenario is changing because a Democratic candidate for a Federal Senate seat came within around 2 points of actually flipping the seat in 2018 and helped flip two districts at the federal level and almost flipped multiple more.

This is why the Electoral College should be abandoned.

Near impossible and won't happen. However, a majority of states could decide to award their delegates based on the highest national vote winner and render the EC moot.

https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

They are within 74 electoral votes of getting it done, and at that point, they'll fight it out in the Supreme Court whether or not it's Constitutional... so don't hold your breath. ;)

The vanity vote is also meaningless in a Presidential election.. Not complicated.

You make a good point here. Don't let it go to your head.

No, he really doesn't make a good point here. The winner of a caucus is determined by the candidate winning the most delegates regardless of who that is. Bernie didn't win Iowa whether or not he got more votes because it's a stupid caucus where Pete won the most delegates. Likewise, Pete didn't tie in New Hampshire even though he received the exact same amount of pledged delegates, and that's because Bernie won the most votes.

It's stupid there are two different ways to determine the winner of a state, but not at all complicated. The caucuses suck and should die, die, die. :)

Day-yam! Another good idea to chew on. You folks are on fire today!

And yet, in Iowa where Bernie won the Vanity Vote, NOW they whine and scream and cry that it's meaningless..

Regardless of the winner, the vanity vote is meaningless in every caucus state. Not complicated.

Whoops, I meant to say,

"Therefore, a higher than usual GOP incumbent RETIREMENT rate means more GOP seats are in play.

dsws wrote:

. that both W and Trump were elected not by the majority...

I don't think there's anything magic about fifty percent plus half a vote. If anything, though, I'd like a higher threshold, if we're going to choose a Leader by voting at all. We should use ranked-choice voting, with NOTA (none of the above) as one of the options, and have a viable system for what to do if NOTA wins. Maybe a chief administrator appointed by Congress, with more limited powers than an elected president.

Excellent! I'm going to chew on this.

Um, a question. As Bernie beat Mayor Pete by some 4,000 votes, how is it Pete gets a fraction of delegates more than Bernie? What bullshit rule or rules made this so?

I thought it was around 2,500 votes. Anyway, Iowa holds a stupid caucus which by design awards delegates in accordance with "who won what area" of the state, etc., and Buttigieg won about three times the number of counties as Bernie... all across Iowa; however, Bernie's vote totals in the counties he won kept his delegate count close yet slightly less. IMO, winners should be always be determined by who gets the most votes, and that's why caucuses always suck... but the winner is the delegate winner. Die caucuses die. ;)

In a primary, delegates are generally awarded primarily based on votes received, and the winner of the most votes generally gets more delegates; however, this is not always the case depending on the states' allocation rules which vary... because why be uniform when FUBAR is an option? In New Hampshire, Bernie was the vote winner and therefore won that state; however, he and Pete Buttigieg left for Nevada with the exact same number of pledged delegates from New Hampshire... seems stupid, but states make their own rules. Still, way better than a stupid caucus.

So to recap:

* The winner of a state caucus is determined by the candidate winning the most delegates in the state. Caucuses suck.

* The winner of a state primary is determined by the candidate receiving the most votes in the state; however, the vote winner doesn't always receive more delegates because of various assorted districts and state delegate math calculations.

** Vote Blue **
No Matter Who

Michale wrote,

Remind me again how all the GOP'ers retiring is going to be a problem for the GOP??

:smirk: :D

We won't know if it's going to be a problem until (at least closer to) the election. Conventional Wisdom says Incumbents have an over 90% chance of being reelected. Therefore, a higher than usual GOP incumbent rate means more GOP seats are in play.

Michale wrote:

My evil conversion of Weigantia is nearly complete.. :D

To which I say,

#NeverEvilMichalePlan

Michale,

I agree that ANYONE BUT HILLARY was a big factor, likely the biggest. But ya gotta throw in the Rooskie interference and Comey's October Surprise to tell the whole story.

Amazing how much Bernie sounds EXACTLY like President Trump. :D

Breaking: Bernie Briefed By U.S. Officials That Russia Is Trying To Help His Campaign
https://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2020/02/breaking-bernie-sanders-briefed-u-s-officials-russia-trying-help-presidential-campaign/

Now yer guy is gonna be on the receiving end of a hysterical Russia Collusion delusion..

:D

Bill Clinton didn't get a majority either, only a plurality.

I don't think there's anything magic about fifty percent plus half a vote. If anything, though, I'd like a higher threshold, if we're going to choose a Leader by voting at all. We should use ranked-choice voting, with NOTA (none of the above) as one of the options, and have a viable system for what to do if NOTA wins. Maybe a chief administrator appointed by Congress, with more limited powers than an elected president.

NEW POLL: Satisfaction With U.S. at Highest It’s Ever Been Since 2005
https://www.mediaite.com/trump/shock-poll-satisfaction-with-u-s-under-trump-is-highest-its-ever-been-since-2005/

Democrats don't stand a chance in Nov.. :D

No matter which Litmus test you use, the GOP is stomping the Dems into the dirt...

By process of elimination, we'de HAVE to!! :D

If we keep working on this, we'll eventually get it right!

How about 'One white male heterosexual person over 40 with brown eyes'???

One white male person over 40 with BROWN EYES..

Them blue-eyed people can't be trusted to vote intelligently.. :D

Better yet, How about 'One white male person over 40, one vote!???

You make a good point here.

I have my moments.. Few and far between though they may be... Thanx for acknowledging it..

Don't let it go to your head :D

Moi??? Shirley, you jest.. :D

This is why the Electoral College should be abandoned. Changing it to whoever wins the most votes nationwide will ensure that "one person, one vote" is, in fact, a reality.

Of course, the downside to that is ONLY California, New York and Texas would get any attention, bot in campaigning AND in federal governance...

The other 47 states might as well not even exist..

You might think it's fine if Blue California elects the POTUS all on it's own..

But how would you feel if Red Texas elects the POTUS all on it's own??

The EC is the worst system going..

Except for any other system...

Likewise any vote in every state that doesn't pick the winner (Dems in red States & Repugs in blue states) is in essence a "vanity vote."

This is why the Electoral College should be abandoned. Changing it to whoever wins the most votes nationwide will ensure that "one person, one vote" is, in fact, a reality.

Dems especially hate it that both W and Trump were elected not by the majority of voter's but by the Electoral College. The EC was created to keep unfit candidates like Trump away from the Presidency, but as with impeachment the Repugs placed loyalty to Party over loyalty to our Constitution.

Michale responded,

Like the Electoral College, the Vanity Vote doesn't mean anything.. It's the algorithm that is at work here..

Ya really gotta wonder if they even SEE their own blatant hypocrisy... :D

You make a good point here. Don't let it go to your head :D

(insert diabolical laughter here)

"Touche' salesman. Do come in."
-Peter Griffin

Republican revenge: Record GOP field forms, on 2020 mission to take down ‘socialists’
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republican-revenge-record-gop-field-forms-on-2020-mission-to-take-down-socialists

Remind me again how all the GOP'ers retiring is going to be a problem for the GOP??

I seem to have forgotten what with all the FACTS to the contrary...

:smirk: :D

My evil conversion of Weigantia is nearly complete.. :D

Those lines may not be an effective attack in a Democratic presidential primary — the auditorium booed and groaned — but they will be in a general election.
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/opinion-columns/victor-joecks/victor-joecks-candidate-most-likely-to-beat-trump-is-trump-1962291/

The Democrat debates have served one fruitful purpose..

It's give President Trump's campaign a whole plethora of campaign ads.. :D

It's Bernie's primary to lose...

That much is certain...

At the VERY least, this woman, this Trump/America hater should be charged with perjury...

But, according to the Trump/America haters, we have two forms of Justice here.. One set for Trump/America haters and one set for President Trump and America supporters..

#Sad

Why are you so obsessed with President Trump??

The question works both ways, dipshit traitor..

MC

If the Democratic establishment steals the nomination from Bernie I'll do what I did in 2016: hold my nose and vote a straight Democratic ticket. I was not thrilled to vote for Hillary, and I view everyone besides Bernie and Elizabeth to be establishment tools, but Trump is an abomination and for the good of the country has to be removed from office.

Fair enough.. I appreciate the honest answer...

However, I am constrained to point out that it's the ANYONE BUT HILLARY attitude that GAVE US President Trump..

:D

Just sayin... :D

The South Carolina Democratic primary is scheduled for Feb. 29. The state's Republican primary was canceled.

Really, moron???

The huge economic upturn for black Americans was due to Odumbo??

But how can that be?? Odumbo DENIED that such a great upturn was even POSSIBLE!!!

So how can he get credit for it, dipshit!!

Jeesus, dood.. Why do you let your Party membership card do your thinking for you??? Don't you have any will of yer own???

Yer just happy as a clam to live on the Democrat Party plantation, ain'tcha..

Same Party.... Different plantation...

Be a MAN, for chreest's sake!!

“President Trump is not just talking a good game, he is walking a good game,” Scott said.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/trumps-support-from-african-americans-will-rise-50-percent-or-more-tim-scott-predicts

President Trump's support amongst black Americans is rising..
Of that, there is no doubt.. It's unarguable..

And, once it reaches a certain point (which we may have already passed) it's GAME OVER for the Democrat Party...

Um, a question. As Bernie beat Mayor Pete by some 4,000 votes, how is it Pete gets a fraction of delegates more than Bernie? What bullshit rule or rules made this so?

Like the Electoral College, the Vanity Vote doesn't mean anything.. It's the algorithm that is at work here..

But I have to say how hilarious I find it..

Those Bernie Haters here whine and cry and scream about Hillary winning the Vanity Vote MEANS something.

And yet, in Iowa where Bernie won the Vanity Vote, NOW they whine and scream and cry that it's meaningless..

Ya really gotta wonder if they even SEE their own blatant hypocrisy... :D

Agreed....

In the case of Mayor Pete, his being gay will be his downfall (that's not being scared of gay people talking.. That's facts and reality talking.)

In the case of Bloomberg, his hysterical anti-gun stance and his nanny-state insistence will be his downfall...

Why sugarcoat it?? Let's call a spade a spade..

Buttagig has a problem with hispanic (and black) American voters because he is gay..

It's really that simple..

Time was ya wouldn't be afraid to state the reality..

Normally, that sort of thing would translate to a big bump nationwide, but this hasn't really materialized for Pete at all.

Again... There is a reason for that..

. I never thought Biden would collapse in such spectacular fashion with the actual voters.

Aren't ya glad you have me around to keep this forum grounded in FACTS and REALITY... :D

Way to keep bapping out column after column lately. Things ARE moving awfully fast and we've got two weeks of serious intrigue barreling at us - woot!