There has been a last minute malfunction in filling the WH Chief O' Staff post. Don't get your Nick Ayers in a twist about it.

*laughs* :)

My favorite theory is we've slipped into some bizzaro world alternate reality and we haven't quite figured out how to get back again.

Or a sci-fi writer conceived of the idea, and it popped into existence because of that (see: Robert A.
Heinlein's "Number Of The Beast"...).

:-)

nypoet22 [5] -

OK, yeah, or it could be that. Good points, all.

C. R. Stucki [7] -

Well, there's many words, but "proud" sure ain't one of them!!

[9] -

Yes. Yes, he is. See his understanding of trade imbalances, where if we run a trade deficit, according to The Orange One, we're "getting ripped off" somehow.

Sigh. He really is that dumb, sad to say.

neilm [10] -

AHA! I was just going to look that info up, for tomorrow's column. I remember that contest (and getting it massively wrong), and now that the time is upon us, I thought it was time to go back and see who got closest! So thank you for providing both the data and the link!

And, of course, you are right. Even "August" is the closest guess, this far out. I will publicly award kudos tomorrow, promise! Unless Trump stirs up some sort of shitstorm that pre-empts it, of course (always a possibility, these days).

I have to compliment you on your accuracy, though -- Kelly lasted a whale of a lot longer than I ever expected!

:-)

[11] -

Damn, that is impressive! Pretty close to exactly what is happening now!

TheStig [12] -

Hoo boy. That could be a LOT longer list! How about "the designated hitter rule" just for one?

Heh.

As for the Pinto, in a former life I did software quality assurance (finding all the bugs before it was released to the public). The Pinto was a cautionary tale we'd tell to all the other departments: "The Ford Pinto shipped six months early -- ahead of schedule. But does anyone remember that now, or do they remember the one fatal bug it had?"

:-)

Mopshell [13] -

The NYT/AP calls it a flip. They put it in the "likely Dem" column, but they do credit it as a flipped seat. Dunno what list you're looking at, here's mine:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html

nypoet22 [15] -

Hey, I was close... well, OK, a whole year off, but when you look at the MONTHS, I was close!

:-)

Heh.

James T Canuck [16] -

Have to compliment you on "mayhemic standards." Nice turn of phrase!

And as for donations, I promise never to stand outside a liquor store ringing a bell. That should deserve some consideration, right?

Heh.

OK, I haven't updated the thermometer in a few days, I promise I'll get on that soon...

PLEASE consider a donation, everyone, as we really need to pay the bills and keep the lights on, and we only beg once a year!

Don Harris [17] -

Around here, I usually go with "date closest, whether early or late" to avoid the Price Is Right tactic of trying to be either first place or last place in line. So neilm is still closest, by our rules...

neilm [18] -

OK, now THAT was funny!

TheStig [21] -

Nick Ayers! Hoo boy...

Now THAT was really, really funny! Well done, sirrah!

:-)

OK, that seems like a good time to wrap this up...

-CW

i certainly didn't intend any insult. perhaps we're having cross-cultural pragmatic failure? see below:

https://www.pbs.org/speak/seatosea/americanvarieties/newyorkcity/

JL

You could have given this explanation - without the insult - in your previous comment. But you chose to be insulting instead. Twice. Why? What problem do you have with me?

Good one!

Nick Ayers gives me the heebie-jeebies - he seems like a very competent "the ends justify the means" type of guy - just what the White House doesn't need - we need to keep the staff incompetent and/or overwhelmed so they are useless for all four years of this joke on our country.

Ayers probably decided that, as a young 'un, the White House is where reputations and careers get obliterated and is smart enough to get out of dodge, and back to his consulting company where he is raking it in.

don't have a cow, i was just paraphrasing what ballotpedia said. other districts while they may have been tweaked somewhat were still fairly similar in shape and location, enough so that they still had congresscritters who were considered incumbents. presumably those were not reshaped as completely as pa-05, which post-redistricting was considered to have been vacant.

JL

I an NOT confusing anything. You aren't paying attention.

What part of EVERY CD IN PA WAS REDRAWN AND RENUMBERED do you not understand?

I didn't see those rules :)

I think "The Price is Right" is the game the Saudis are playing with the Trump family.

My money remains on Trump being stretchered out some quiet tradesmen door and whistled of to some secret sanitorium for a dose of giggle pills and holy water. I give the poor benighted prick six months, max, before he totally loses his slender grip on reality.

C.W... I fully intend to contribute to the FTP Adblocker fund on or about Christmas, cash this time of year is tighter than a Ducks arse, made more so this year by a string of unforeseen expenditures, new beds for the kids, new bath and shower and my fish are eating me out of house and tank...I usually put some dosh aside for the religious folks, they watch me spend it at the liquor store while they ring their bells and dispense their seasonal drivel at passersby.

LL&P

well, i said he'd last longer than most people thought he would. including myself apparently.

http://www.chrisweigant.com/2017/08/15/kelly-exit-contest/#comment-107949

you're confusing the new fifth district with the old one. the court ordered redistricting created the new fifth district which beforehand did not exist.

JL

It isn't because of the redistricting because every CD in PA was redrawn but, unlike PA-06, PA-07, PA-14 (flipped blue to red) and PA-17, only PA-05 was not included as a flip seat. There is no obvious reason why it has been left off the list.

Slavery
Treatment of indigenous peoples
Nixon
Ford Pinto
My Mother the Car

Reason: Kelly will resign, using "personal issues" as an excuse after completing a "respectable" length of time in the role. There will be frequent rumors that 45 will fire him but in the end 45 won't have the cojones. By this time his role will be symbolic as all normal CoS power will have been undermined by 45, his family and some of the weird cronies.

This was my answer to the second part of the competition which asked the reason Kelly was going. I’m feeling rather pleased with myself.

thestig: 8/21/17
paula: 8/25/17
listen: 10/1/17
JM from Ct: 10/20/17
altohone: 10/31/17
CW: 11/12/17
balthasar: 1/6/18
nypoet22: 1/20/18
BigGuy: 4/1/18
kick: 5/11/18
neil: 8/1/18
Don: 1/20/21
liz & JFC: abstain

Source: http://www.chrisweigant.com/2017/08/15/kelly-exit-contest/#comment-107997

Well, well, looks like it is Smug Mode for a certain “neilm”!

Haven't heard from anybody else on this, but I've long had a suspicion, gleaned from the moron's "Trade wars are easy to win", and "There are lots of ways Mexico could pay for the wall", that he is so ignorant about economics that he thinks it's the exporters (Chinese and Mexicans) who are the people who pay the tariffs he enacts. Wouldn't surprise me at all. He actually is that dumb.

I'm proud I didn't vote for the clown. I'm also proud I supported a totally acceptable candidate and refuse to blame her for the character assassination she endured over years from dirty tricks and lies.

I pity the right wingers who are tarnished with the stink of Trump for a decade to come.

Now that's [4] a toughie! I wonder if it could have something to do with the fact that you nominated the only U.S. citizen over the age of 35 capable of losing to a 3rd-rate reality TV actor/world-class asshole to run against him???

You must be so proud!