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	<title>Comments on: Assessing The Raid On Syria</title>
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	<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/</link>
	<description>Reality-based political commentary</description>
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		<item>
		<title>By: Chris Weigant</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118547</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris Weigant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2018 06:12:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118547</guid>
		<description>Michale [2] -

Somehow I just &lt;em&gt;knew&lt;/em&gt; you&#039;d like this column.  And don&#039;t be such a stranger!  Heh.

The Stig [3] -

First, thanks for the kind words and all.

Thing One (is this &lt;em&gt;The Cat In The Hat&lt;/em&gt;?... sorry...): Good point, but it shows the Pentagon brass had their ducks in precisely the right row, so kudos to them for presenting him with the right option.  I am reminded of the &quot;President Schwarzenegger&quot; scene from &lt;em&gt;The Simpsons Movie&lt;/em&gt;, in fact:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5D3mqiKgquY

Thing Four: You know, I almost included in this article a riff (right around where I said it was akin to attacking Moscow) on &quot;close only counts in horseshoes... and hand grenades... and nuclear weapons&quot; but it was already running long...

I didn&#039;t mention the arc.  Cruise missiles, as designed, fly pretty low to the ground.  That makes them vulnerable to ground fire in a way that ballistic missiles really aren&#039;t.  So even a few lucky guys with AK-47s might, in the perfect scenario, bring down a Tomahawk.  Whereas ballistic missiles really need to be hit in the boost phase or the high arc coast phase to be knocked out.  Boost is better, but requires some mighty quick action.  

The thing that always gives me pause is that after the warheads are released in an ICBM (multiple ones, remember the acronym MIRV?) they can be disguised by decoys that are essentially just big mylar balloons.  Which our own anti-missile systems have never really been adequately tested against.

But anyway, you&#039;re right.  I did oversimplify considerably.  When more detailed after-action reports are available, maybe I&#039;ll delve into it more...

Balthasar [11] -

He filed for an extension, so I guess we&#039;ll all get to see them on October 15th... or not (as the case may be)!

:-)

-CW</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michale [2] -</p>
<p>Somehow I just <em>knew</em> you'd like this column.  And don't be such a stranger!  Heh.</p>
<p>The Stig [3] -</p>
<p>First, thanks for the kind words and all.</p>
<p>Thing One (is this <em>The Cat In The Hat</em>?... sorry...): Good point, but it shows the Pentagon brass had their ducks in precisely the right row, so kudos to them for presenting him with the right option.  I am reminded of the "President Schwarzenegger" scene from <em>The Simpsons Movie</em>, in fact:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5D3mqiKgquY" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5D3mqiKgquY</a></p>
<p>Thing Four: You know, I almost included in this article a riff (right around where I said it was akin to attacking Moscow) on "close only counts in horseshoes... and hand grenades... and nuclear weapons" but it was already running long...</p>
<p>I didn't mention the arc.  Cruise missiles, as designed, fly pretty low to the ground.  That makes them vulnerable to ground fire in a way that ballistic missiles really aren't.  So even a few lucky guys with AK-47s might, in the perfect scenario, bring down a Tomahawk.  Whereas ballistic missiles really need to be hit in the boost phase or the high arc coast phase to be knocked out.  Boost is better, but requires some mighty quick action.  </p>
<p>The thing that always gives me pause is that after the warheads are released in an ICBM (multiple ones, remember the acronym MIRV?) they can be disguised by decoys that are essentially just big mylar balloons.  Which our own anti-missile systems have never really been adequately tested against.</p>
<p>But anyway, you're right.  I did oversimplify considerably.  When more detailed after-action reports are available, maybe I'll delve into it more...</p>
<p>Balthasar [11] -</p>
<p>He filed for an extension, so I guess we'll all get to see them on October 15th... or not (as the case may be)!</p>
<p>:-)</p>
<p>-CW</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: nypoet22</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118542</link>
		<dc:creator>nypoet22</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2018 02:58:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118542</guid>
		<description>and how do i know? he was editor of harvard law review for chrissakes!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>and how do i know? he was editor of harvard law review for chrissakes!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: nypoet22</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118541</link>
		<dc:creator>nypoet22</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2018 02:57:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118541</guid>
		<description>@michale,

A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A

Give or take a few A&#039;s

JL</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@michale,</p>
<p>A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A<br />
A</p>
<p>Give or take a few A's</p>
<p>JL</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Michale</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118511</link>
		<dc:creator>Michale</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2018 10:33:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118511</guid>
		<description>&lt;I&gt;Trump&#039;s Tax returns, which he should have filed today, are not yet being audited. Can we see them?&lt;/I&gt;

Just as soon as we see Obama&#039;s school records..</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Trump's Tax returns, which he should have filed today, are not yet being audited. Can we see them?</i></p>
<p>Just as soon as we see Obama's school records..</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Michale</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118510</link>
		<dc:creator>Michale</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2018 09:57:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118510</guid>
		<description>&lt;I&gt;ultimately it doesn&#039;t matter if donald made the decision by blowing bubbles out of his nose, he made a good decision and deserves credit, just as he deserves the blame for all his poor decisions.&lt;/I&gt;

That&#039;s one..  :D</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>ultimately it doesn't matter if donald made the decision by blowing bubbles out of his nose, he made a good decision and deserves credit, just as he deserves the blame for all his poor decisions.</i></p>
<p>That's one..  :D</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: nypoet22</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118502</link>
		<dc:creator>nypoet22</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2018 01:50:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118502</guid>
		<description>@cw,

3-dot tuesday?

JL</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@cw,</p>
<p>3-dot tuesday?</p>
<p>JL</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: nypoet22</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118501</link>
		<dc:creator>nypoet22</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2018 00:51:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118501</guid>
		<description>ultimately it doesn&#039;t matter if donald made the decision by blowing bubbles out of his nose, he made a good decision and deserves credit, just as he deserves the blame for all his poor decisions.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>ultimately it doesn't matter if donald made the decision by blowing bubbles out of his nose, he made a good decision and deserves credit, just as he deserves the blame for all his poor decisions.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Balthasar</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118499</link>
		<dc:creator>Balthasar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2018 00:01:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118499</guid>
		<description>Trump&#039;s Tax returns, which he should have filed today, are not yet being audited. Can we see them?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Trump's Tax returns, which he should have filed today, are not yet being audited. Can we see them?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Balthasar</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118497</link>
		<dc:creator>Balthasar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Apr 2018 21:47:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118497</guid>
		<description>You and the Daily beast can feast on me :D

I think it looks like a young James Marsden myself:

http://i.perezhilton.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/james-marsden-comments-on-tye-sheridans-casting-in-x-men4__oPt.jpg</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You and the Daily beast can feast on me :D</p>
<p>I think it looks like a young James Marsden myself:</p>
<p><a href="http://i.perezhilton.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/james-marsden-comments-on-tye-sheridans-casting-in-x-men4__oPt.jpg" rel="nofollow">http://i.perezhilton.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/james-marsden-comments-on-tye-sheridans-casting-in-x-men4__oPt.jpg</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Michale</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118494</link>
		<dc:creator>Michale</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Apr 2018 19:58:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118494</guid>
		<description>&lt;I&gt;So bite me...&lt;/I&gt;

Apologies..  I am a little rusty..

I should have added a :^D after that...  

:D</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>So bite me...</i></p>
<p>Apologies..  I am a little rusty..</p>
<p>I should have added a :^D after that...  </p>
<p>:D</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Michale</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118493</link>
		<dc:creator>Michale</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Apr 2018 19:50:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118493</guid>
		<description>&lt;I&gt;Dude, doesn&#039;t look a thing like Dafoe.&lt;/I&gt;

Apparently, I am not the only one who thinks so..

https://www.thedailybeast.com/did-a-young-willem-dafoe-threaten-stormy-daniels-internet-goes-wild-trying-to-id-her-sketch

So bite me...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Dude, doesn't look a thing like Dafoe.</i></p>
<p>Apparently, I am not the only one who thinks so..</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/did-a-young-willem-dafoe-threaten-stormy-daniels-internet-goes-wild-trying-to-id-her-sketch" rel="nofollow">https://www.thedailybeast.com/did-a-young-willem-dafoe-threaten-stormy-daniels-internet-goes-wild-trying-to-id-her-sketch</a></p>
<p>So bite me...</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Balthasar</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118492</link>
		<dc:creator>Balthasar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Apr 2018 19:26:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118492</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Obviously, the guy who &quot;threatened&quot; Stormy is Willem Dafoe...&lt;/i&gt;

Dude, doesn&#039;t look a thing like Dafoe. Looks like Stormy&#039;s idea of a TILF (as in, thug I&#039;d like to..). 

East Coast/Italian heritage, but not street punk. Based on this drawing, I&#039;d guess an actor.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Obviously, the guy who "threatened" Stormy is Willem Dafoe...</i></p>
<p>Dude, doesn't look a thing like Dafoe. Looks like Stormy's idea of a TILF (as in, thug I'd like to..). </p>
<p>East Coast/Italian heritage, but not street punk. Based on this drawing, I'd guess an actor.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Michale</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118491</link>
		<dc:creator>Michale</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Apr 2018 17:29:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118491</guid>
		<description>https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Da_rEH3U8AAHrKj.jpg

Obviously, the guy who &quot;threatened&quot; Stormy is Willem Dafoe...


:^/</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Da_rEH3U8AAHrKj.jpg" rel="nofollow">https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Da_rEH3U8AAHrKj.jpg</a></p>
<p>Obviously, the guy who "threatened" Stormy is Willem Dafoe...</p>
<p>:^/</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Michale</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118489</link>
		<dc:creator>Michale</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Apr 2018 16:05:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118489</guid>
		<description>&lt;I&gt;Thing One: I&#039;d wager Trump had nothing to do with this operation other than diverting his gaze from the Cable News and saying yes, possibly by nodding. &lt;/I&gt;

Well, I guess I called THAT one dead on ballz accurate..  :D

The HHPTDS is strong with most everyone here.  :D</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Thing One: I'd wager Trump had nothing to do with this operation other than diverting his gaze from the Cable News and saying yes, possibly by nodding. </i></p>
<p>Well, I guess I called THAT one dead on ballz accurate..  :D</p>
<p>The HHPTDS is strong with most everyone here.  :D</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: TheStig</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118488</link>
		<dc:creator>TheStig</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Apr 2018 15:47:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118488</guid>
		<description>The &quot;police sketch&quot; of the man purported to have threatened Stormy D. has been released.  In the immortal words of Mayor Quimby:

&quot;That could be anyone&#039;s ass.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The "police sketch" of the man purported to have threatened Stormy D. has been released.  In the immortal words of Mayor Quimby:</p>
<p>"That could be anyone's ass."</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: TheStig</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118487</link>
		<dc:creator>TheStig</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Apr 2018 15:25:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118487</guid>
		<description>CW-You always do an excellent job with your after action military assessments. I would only add a few things.

&lt;b&gt;Thing One:&lt;/b&gt;  I&#039;d wager Trump had nothing to do with this operation other than diverting his gaze from the Cable News and saying yes, possibly by nodding.  This is the same President who last week wanted all US forces out Syria in 48 hrs. What a difference a week makes. The Brass made a strong, brief pitch, and Trump said yes.  Trump generally says yes to the last person(s) he hears. The people in uniforms had missiles ready to go.

&lt;b&gt;Thing Two:&lt;/b&gt;  Syria is extremely vulnerable to cruise missile attack.  Like most of populated Syria, Damascus and Homs are within 50 miles of the Med. Allowing for another 50 or so miles of standoff for ship and/or sub launch platforms, that&#039;s maybe 10 minutes of early warning, which is not a lot of time to get an air defense system up and running. Cruise missiles coming from The Gulf and Red Sea would be traveling in over poorly defended desert and bad lands, very possibly delivered by bombers well inland from their take-off location.

&lt;b&gt;Thing Three:&lt;/b&gt;  Most of the Syrian air defense system  is based upon the obsolescent and poorly maintained S-200 system.  This is a late &#039;50s design fielded in the late sixties and upgraded to the present. The Russian&#039;s in Syria have the S-400 air defense system, but it is still in development and was not used - very likely because the Russians aren&#039;t confident it would work, or because they don&#039;t want to give the West detailed intelligence about how it works. By the way, S-200 and S-400 are not missiles, they are systems of missiles, radars, launchers and command and control goodies.  Any news source that talks about an S-400 missile doesn&#039;t know what the F they are talking about.

&lt;b&gt;Thing Four:&lt;/b&gt; Cruise missiles are hard to kill, but ballistic missiles are far harder.  Cruise missile are relatively slow and you can kill them by disabling the air frame, the guidance, the propulsion system or the warhead. The Serbians knocked down a few NATO cruise missiles.  A ballistic missile travels much, much  faster than a cruise missile, and once in terminal phase, you have have to kill the warhead-and war heads have small,hard heads.  Put a bit simplistically, precision argues for cruise missiles, survivability for ballistic missiles. 

&lt;b&gt;Thing Five:&lt;/b&gt;  Putin is putting up a brave front with bogus numbers, but he is privately dressing down the Russian trainers in Syria for the poor performance of their Syrian clients.  This is a routine procedure after most middle east wars or little wars.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>CW-You always do an excellent job with your after action military assessments. I would only add a few things.</p>
<p><b>Thing One:</b>  I'd wager Trump had nothing to do with this operation other than diverting his gaze from the Cable News and saying yes, possibly by nodding.  This is the same President who last week wanted all US forces out Syria in 48 hrs. What a difference a week makes. The Brass made a strong, brief pitch, and Trump said yes.  Trump generally says yes to the last person(s) he hears. The people in uniforms had missiles ready to go.</p>
<p><b>Thing Two:</b>  Syria is extremely vulnerable to cruise missile attack.  Like most of populated Syria, Damascus and Homs are within 50 miles of the Med. Allowing for another 50 or so miles of standoff for ship and/or sub launch platforms, that's maybe 10 minutes of early warning, which is not a lot of time to get an air defense system up and running. Cruise missiles coming from The Gulf and Red Sea would be traveling in over poorly defended desert and bad lands, very possibly delivered by bombers well inland from their take-off location.</p>
<p><b>Thing Three:</b>  Most of the Syrian air defense system  is based upon the obsolescent and poorly maintained S-200 system.  This is a late '50s design fielded in the late sixties and upgraded to the present. The Russian's in Syria have the S-400 air defense system, but it is still in development and was not used - very likely because the Russians aren't confident it would work, or because they don't want to give the West detailed intelligence about how it works. By the way, S-200 and S-400 are not missiles, they are systems of missiles, radars, launchers and command and control goodies.  Any news source that talks about an S-400 missile doesn't know what the F they are talking about.</p>
<p><b>Thing Four:</b> Cruise missiles are hard to kill, but ballistic missiles are far harder.  Cruise missile are relatively slow and you can kill them by disabling the air frame, the guidance, the propulsion system or the warhead. The Serbians knocked down a few NATO cruise missiles.  A ballistic missile travels much, much  faster than a cruise missile, and once in terminal phase, you have have to kill the warhead-and war heads have small,hard heads.  Put a bit simplistically, precision argues for cruise missiles, survivability for ballistic missiles. </p>
<p><b>Thing Five:</b>  Putin is putting up a brave front with bogus numbers, but he is privately dressing down the Russian trainers in Syria for the poor performance of their Syrian clients.  This is a routine procedure after most middle east wars or little wars.</p>
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	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Michale</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118486</link>
		<dc:creator>Michale</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Apr 2018 12:46:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118486</guid>
		<description>&lt;I&gt;This may be the first time I&#039;ve actually said this on pretty much any subject involving the current president, but it looks to me like Trump got it about right this time around. &lt;/I&gt;

&lt;B&gt;Could you say that into my GOOD ear?? I coulda swore you just called me &#039;Ace&#039;...&quot;&lt;/B&gt;
-Jim Carrey, ACE VENTURA-PET DETECTIVE

It&#039;s good to see that someone here can give the President credit where credit is due..

I am betting no one (sans one, maybe two) else will...  They will all claim that President Trump had NOTHING to do with it.  That it was General Mattis or some such other....

Kudos to you CW...  Making such a position public in the midst of the lions den....

Ballsy....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>This may be the first time I've actually said this on pretty much any subject involving the current president, but it looks to me like Trump got it about right this time around. </i></p>
<p><b>Could you say that into my GOOD ear?? I coulda swore you just called me 'Ace'..."</b><br />
-Jim Carrey, ACE VENTURA-PET DETECTIVE</p>
<p>It's good to see that someone here can give the President credit where credit is due..</p>
<p>I am betting no one (sans one, maybe two) else will...  They will all claim that President Trump had NOTHING to do with it.  That it was General Mattis or some such other....</p>
<p>Kudos to you CW...  Making such a position public in the midst of the lions den....</p>
<p>Ballsy....</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: neilm</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/04/16/assessing-the-raid-on-syria/#comment-118479</link>
		<dc:creator>neilm</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Apr 2018 02:56:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=15366#comment-118479</guid>
		<description>More kabuki - not that Trump is unique in this situation.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>More kabuki - not that Trump is unique in this situation.</p>
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