Comments on: The Rise And Fall Of Trump's Polling http://www.chrisweigant.com/2017/10/03/the-rise-and-fall-of-trumps-polling/ Reality-based political commentary Sun, 10 May 2026 13:21:36 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Chris Weigant http://www.chrisweigant.com/2017/10/03/the-rise-and-fall-of-trumps-polling/#comment-109620 Chris Weigant Tue, 10 Oct 2017 20:33:13 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=14558#comment-109620 TheStig - I actually like the noise. I track it so closely I can even predict it. "RCP's about to cut off these four polls from their rolling daily average, so the net result will be a tiny spike up/down..." I started with RCP because at the time they were the de facto standard on the web, and also because they lean Republican. They play with their data so that things look better for GOP and worse for Dems all the time. Like picking which breakout number to use (all adults/reg. voters/likely voters) depending on which number is better for their guys. But I figured even with this low-level manipulation, the broader trends would still show through. Largely, that is what happens at RCP. Pollster is much better at smoothing, though, which is why I do check them out too... -CW TheStig -

I actually like the noise. I track it so closely I can even predict it. "RCP's about to cut off these four polls from their rolling daily average, so the net result will be a tiny spike up/down..."

I started with RCP because at the time they were the de facto standard on the web, and also because they lean Republican. They play with their data so that things look better for GOP and worse for Dems all the time. Like picking which breakout number to use (all adults/reg. voters/likely voters) depending on which number is better for their guys.

But I figured even with this low-level manipulation, the broader trends would still show through. Largely, that is what happens at RCP.

Pollster is much better at smoothing, though, which is why I do check them out too...

-CW

]]> By: TheStig http://www.chrisweigant.com/2017/10/03/the-rise-and-fall-of-trumps-polling/#comment-109613 TheStig Tue, 10 Oct 2017 13:09:42 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=14558#comment-109613 CW-7 There is a deeper point in my snarky comment 2. The statistical term "regression" derives from the fact that local ups and downs in a series of observations tend to even out as more data is collected. RCP doesn't make much of an attempt to filter the noise from the signal. Reasonable people can argue whether that is a vice or a virtue, but a prudent observer should be very wary of overparsing RCP rolling (rollicking?) averages on even monthly intervals. HuffPollster and Fivethityeight (and others) do a better job of filtering the noise. Both Huff and Five show Trump slowly losing ground over time, and RCP basically shows the same thing over 9 months...give or take any given day, any given poll. The virtue of RCP is simplicity, the vice is low resolution. CW-7

There is a deeper point in my snarky comment 2. The statistical term "regression" derives from the fact that local ups and downs in a series of observations tend to even out as more data is collected. RCP doesn't make much of an attempt to filter the noise from the signal. Reasonable people can argue whether that is a vice or a virtue, but a prudent observer should be very wary of overparsing RCP rolling (rollicking?) averages on even monthly intervals.

HuffPollster and Fivethityeight (and others) do a better job of filtering the noise. Both Huff and Five show Trump slowly losing ground over time, and RCP basically shows the same thing over 9 months...give or take any given day, any given poll. The virtue of RCP is simplicity, the vice is low resolution.

]]> By: Chris Weigant http://www.chrisweigant.com/2017/10/03/the-rise-and-fall-of-trumps-polling/#comment-109606 Chris Weigant Tue, 10 Oct 2017 04:56:58 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=14558#comment-109606 TheStig [2] - OK, now that was <em>really</em> funny! :-) As for everyone else, I have to admit I was kind of shocked that Tillerson wasn't fired late Friday afternoon... the famous "take out the trash day" (as <em>West Wing</em> put it). Maybe next Friday? We'll see... -CW TheStig [2] -

OK, now that was really funny!

:-)

As for everyone else, I have to admit I was kind of shocked that Tillerson wasn't fired late Friday afternoon... the famous "take out the trash day" (as West Wing put it). Maybe next Friday? We'll see...

-CW

]]> By: C. R. Stucki http://www.chrisweigant.com/2017/10/03/the-rise-and-fall-of-trumps-polling/#comment-109547 C. R. Stucki Thu, 05 Oct 2017 19:09:37 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=14558#comment-109547 John M - One can scarcely imagine how hard it must be for a person of Tillerson's ability and experience to work for somebody like Trump. I can scarcely believe that he can deal with something like that. John M - One can scarcely imagine how hard it must be for a person of Tillerson's ability and experience to work for somebody like Trump. I can scarcely believe that he can deal with something like that.

]]> By: Kick http://www.chrisweigant.com/2017/10/03/the-rise-and-fall-of-trumps-polling/#comment-109535 Kick Wed, 04 Oct 2017 21:35:56 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=14558#comment-109535 John M 4 <i>Could he be the next one out in Trump's chaotic administration?</i> <b>Signs point to yes </b> ~ Magic 8-Ball John M
4

Could he be the next one out in Trump's chaotic administration?

Signs point to yes ~ Magic 8-Ball

]]> By: John M http://www.chrisweigant.com/2017/10/03/the-rise-and-fall-of-trumps-polling/#comment-109534 John M Wed, 04 Oct 2017 16:21:31 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=14558#comment-109534 Apparently Secretary of State Tillerson, after being undercut so many times now by his boss, has called Trump a F***ing moron in front of multiple witnesses and had to be dissuaded by Pence from resigning. He gave a news conference today praising Trump but without actually coming right out and denying anything. Could he be the next one out in Trump's chaotic administration? Apparently Secretary of State Tillerson, after being undercut so many times now by his boss, has called Trump a F***ing moron in front of multiple witnesses and had to be dissuaded by Pence from resigning. He gave a news conference today praising Trump but without actually coming right out and denying anything. Could he be the next one out in Trump's chaotic administration?

]]> By: TheStig http://www.chrisweigant.com/2017/10/03/the-rise-and-fall-of-trumps-polling/#comment-109531 TheStig Wed, 04 Oct 2017 12:41:10 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=14558#comment-109531 Trump poll numbers are like the man: both tend to revert to the mean. Trump poll numbers are like the man: both tend to revert to the mean.

]]> By: Kick http://www.chrisweigant.com/2017/10/03/the-rise-and-fall-of-trumps-polling/#comment-109530 Kick Wed, 04 Oct 2017 11:26:33 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=14558#comment-109530 <i>Can Trump erase some of the bad taste he's left in people's mouths over the past week of insulting Puerto Rico's victims? Will Maria ultimately be Trump's Katrina, or will he manage to turn the story around? </i> Trump suggested that Maria wasn't a "real disaster" like Katrina and prattled on and on about himself and his ratings. He tossed paper towels to the victims like it was a game and passed out flashlights while claiming they were no longer needed. <i>Will he show empathy in Las Vegas? </i> How would he do that when he's got no empathy for anyone not named Trump? Can Trump erase some of the bad taste he's left in people's mouths over the past week of insulting Puerto Rico's victims? Will Maria ultimately be Trump's Katrina, or will he manage to turn the story around?

Trump suggested that Maria wasn't a "real disaster" like Katrina and prattled on and on about himself and his ratings. He tossed paper towels to the victims like it was a game and passed out flashlights while claiming they were no longer needed.

Will he show empathy in Las Vegas?

How would he do that when he's got no empathy for anyone not named Trump?

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