New election-day column up:

http://www.chrisweigant.com/2016/11/08/get-out-and-vote/

Let's move the whole thread over there, OK?

:-)

-CW

The polls say otherwise..

No, they don't. I've seen the exit polls since I posted that, and it's 8%. :)

Just a heads up....

The polls say otherwise..

I know, I know.. You don't like polls that say what you don't want to hear..

But there they are....

The polls say otherwise..

I know, I know.. You don't like polls that say what you don't want to hear..

But there they are....

Adjust your expectations accordingly. :)

It's not hard to see why Trump is doing unusually well for a Republican with black voters.
http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/what-is-there-to-lose-black-voters-could-put-trump-over-the-top/

*TRIPLE*.........

And awwwaaaaaaaayyyyyy we go!!!!!! :D

Jackie Krachala, who cast her ballot for Donald Trump, replied with an emphatic "no!"
http://www.businessinsider.com/woman-cnn-first-female-president-hillary-clinton-election-2016-11

That right there emphasizes my point... Left Wingers are thinking this is a cake walk for Hillary...

They are in for a very rude shock.... Just like this Clinton News Network reporter.... :D

FBI Director Comey is hand-cuffed by DOJ Guidelines with regards to investigations so close to elections...

After today, those handcuffs come off and Comey will A> be free to investigate to his heart's content and 2> cannot be fired except for cause....

So, regardless of whether Hillary wins or not, she is in for a world of legal hurt after this election is over...

They are coming to the realization that this is an election that is going to drain the swamp and kick the establishment right in the cajones.... :D

Love the VOTE header!! :D

Kudos...

Ya'all are *ALL* about Party... For ya'all, it's Party Uber Alles...

And that is why Trump supporters are so alien to ya'all... You simply CANNOT understand them.. And, as normal human beings, ya'all attack what ya'all don't understand...

I doubt that President Elect Trump won't give a rat's ass what Ted Cruz has to say.... :D

Ya betcha!! :D

What do you think the fallout will be in the Republican Party after all this?

A> They are going to look like COMPLETE morons..

and

2> They are going to have to do some MAJOR sucking up if they are going to want to come in from the cold and rain..

Or they can just go shack up with Hillary....

Makes me no never mind....

I am not a Party kinda guy.. Partys suck....

PEOPLE count...

Promise?

What do you think the fallout will be in the Republican Party after all this? Look at all of the folks on your side who refused to back Trump, folks like Romney and the Bushes who refused to endorse him, or the spectacle of Jason Chaffez, who changed his mind about Trump twice (can he still look his daughter in the eye?). John McCain won't even discuss Trump. Conservative pundits like George Will, Charlie Sykes, Hugh Hewitt, and Glenn Beck will still be out there saying the man's a disaster. Can Trump expect Ted Cruz to say anything nice about him tomorrow? And is there still a Tea Party, or is it now the Trump party?

That's the spirit!!! :D

I know of at least 2 and I am pretty sure about another 3... :D

Over 80% of Americans want this country to change direction..

Donald Trump is the **ONLY** candidate running on the platform of making that happen...

While I am not ready to use the 'L' word yet, I am confident in using the 'C' word to describe Trump's win...

The ONLY question is how many Weigantians are going to have the maturity to be here tomorrow to take their well-deserved lumps... :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7cG0E-Du_c

Or maybe his campaign manager said to herself "It's over.. What the hell, keep him in a good mood, I just want to get paid."

Or MAYBE Trump will be President of the United States...

You can't even CONCEIVE that possibility can ya?? :D

We'll know in about 6-8 hours.. :D

The only question remains is will you be able to admit that you were wrong and I was right... :D

Trump is up Tweeting again! That was sudden. Faster than the rupture of Chris Christie's lap band!

Maybe Trump did the pouty face "I'm sorry" thing, where you cross your hands, look at the ground and rotate your right foot back and forth and mutter the magic words.

Or maybe his campaign manager said to herself "It's over.. What the hell, keep him in a good mood, I just want to get paid."

But, in THIS reality, in the REAL world, anecdotal evidence... aka FACTS.... is the coin of the realm....

Oh, I have no doubt whatsoever that anecdotal evidence is bigly in your alternate reality bubble. *LOL* :D

Officials have recalibrated the machines and are confident that the problem has been resolved.
http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2016/11/08/some-problems-reported-as-voters-head-to-polls/

And so the cheating begins..

There will be blood...

Maybe for Left Wingers...

But, in THIS reality, in the REAL world, anecdotal evidence... aka FACTS.... is the coin of the realm....

No one here has said "Trump wouldn't get ANY black American support."

I can prove otherwise, but what would be the point? No one here would acknowledge the fact, so......

Romney got around 7%, and I suspect Trump will get about the same amount, maybe a point or two more.

As usual, you "suspect" wrong.. Trump's documented black American support is up somewhere around 20%-25%..

You'll know that tomorrow.. :D

Could you be more specific?? And maybe provide some anecdotal evidence to support your claim that what I am saying is false..

Anecdotal evidence is the gold standard in the alternate reality bubble of right-wing nuts living on the planet of Wingnutia. But, but, but... lots and lots of yard signs where I live. But, but, but... bigly crowds!

Ya'all claimed that Trump wouldn't get ANY black American support and Trump has already TRIPLED Romney's support by black Americans..

No one here has said "Trump wouldn't get ANY black American support." We all knew he had the support of the rapist Mike Tyson and the 2-time murderer Don King along with Trump's African American Director of Outreach... Omarosa... who said people will have to "bow down" to Trump.

Romney got around 7%, and I suspect Trump will get about the same amount, maybe a point or two more. Even Breitbart propaganda is reporting Trump is doubling Romney's support... not sure what propaganda rag is reporting Trump getting "TRIPLE."

I can get more...bottles, I mean. :-)

I try not to swill single malts. After a few, you might as go vodka, Russian style. I mean the little glass, one gulp, repeat until unconcious....not the little dance where you crouch and kick your feet....never got the hang of that.

Now THAT is funny.. :D

There ya go, my fellow Weigantians... Help is there.... :D

Typical Democrats... :^/

I did..

Those hispanics who are anti-Trump vis a vis the immigration issue are either illegal immigrants (criminals) or those who aid and abet illegal immigrant (criminals)..

Starting tomorrow, we should start finding out who is truly blue.

A

That's your claim.. We'll see what reality shows..

Ya'all claimed that Trump wouldn't get ANY black American support and Trump has already TRIPLED Romney's support by black Americans..

So, let's just say ya'all don't have the best track record with Trump predictions...

It's much worse than MY track record with Hillary predictions.

And THAT says something... :D

Could you be more specific?? And maybe provide some anecdotal evidence to support your claim that what I am saying is false..

Because I can well document the claim that many many MANY legal hispanics support Trump...

It's only the criminal hispanics and those that want to aid and abet the criminals.. THEY are the only ones who are anti-Trump....

Outrageously false... outrageously, even by your standards, Michale ... :(

LEGAL hispanics support Trump..

Trump is going to set records for Hispanic voters. I would guess Trump will receive about 18% of Hispanic voters, compared with Romney's 27%... record lows. :)

The surge in Latino voters is being called the "Trump bump." :D

Ya'all see?? This is what I have been trying to tell ya'all..

LEGAL hispanics support Trump..

It's only the criminal hispanics and those that want to aid and abet the criminals.. THEY are the only ones who are anti-Trump....

I think you are a little too conservative with regard to early voting analysis. Polling simultaneously projects likely voters and candidate preference. Both factors are subject to error. Early voting projects voter preference for those who have actually voted, also subject to error, but not the same error found in polling. Polls are subject to sampling biases (phone platform and poll participation) not found in early voting data. Early voting can provide better estimates if it's fed into an appropriate statistical model...especially if their are a few cycles of early response data for comparison.

I know, right??

I would think a CASE would be required to address the upset.... :D

Nope...

Just indicative of how the day is going to go... :D

It's a foregone conclusion that Trump will win FL and NC...

If Trump takes MI too??

It's all over but the fireworks...

Oh wait. Hillary cancelled her victory fireworks... Maybe she knows something ya'all don't.. :D

"I was all set and ready to prosecute Hillary Clinton for her email server.. Then, while perusing Hillary's emails, I found my own suicide note.."
-FBI Director Comey

"ELECTION PREDICTIONS: Democrats will take an early lead throughout the day which will drastically change to a massive Republican lead once the work day ends."
-Media Outlet

:D

Florida is Trump.. You can take that to the bank..

After what Hillary and the Left Wingery pulled in Charlotte last month?? There is NO WAY that NC is going to Hillary..

North Carolina is Trump. You can take that to the quickie mart... :D

Yea.... And Trump is toast and BREXIT will definitely fail... :D

Balthasar, I think it's you I am going to have the
most fun with, this time tomorrow.. :D

Everything in the past week has gone Trump's way..

This is just like Reagan/Carter.... Reagan behind the entire campaign and then zooms ahead the last week...

http://theworleys.net/temp/michaleEC.jpg

http://theworleys.net/temp/michaleEC.jpg

I believe the total three-town NH vote has Trump up 32-25 with a smattering of votes for various others. She's down 7 (votes). Trouble?

I think your map is perfect with one change: I think Hillary is also going to win Ohio.

Significant Republican crossover vote of around 10%, and I think women are going to bring Ohio home for Hillary.

Color Ohio blue. :)

Clinton 4
Trump 2
Johnson 1
Romney 1 (write in)

I have a bottle of single malt on hand for tomorrow night. For toasting victory or coping with an upset!

Latinos come out heavily enough in AZ to make it blue for HRC and an Arapaio loss, but not so heavily and there's a McCain win.

On the other hand, NC's voter suppression efforts successfully keep the state red, though just barely.

Aren't you a member of the "media"?? Aren't you supposed to be making this out to be a nail-biter? Shouldn't I be chugging antacids, and and hanging on every word uttered by Steve Kornacki, Nate Silver, and Charlie Cook? I'm glad that you have the bravery to call this the blowout that it is.

On the other hand, you could be on the conservative side. I keep hearing people(Trump voters) say that they won't vote tomorrow because "the system is rigged anyway". I'm hoping that's a trend.

I get to the same place you do, but by somewhat different means. Your list is EXACTLY my list...and I think we'll miss on a few.

Overall, I give Clinton about an 85% chance of pulling off a win. That's pretty close to the mean of the NYT Upshot table of six quantitative prognosticators. I think Nate Silver is low balling Clintons's odds, although he is shifting her numbers up at the last minute. I don't buy into the PEC's >99% prediction or the slightly less rosy 98% of HuffPo.

I see Trump's last best hope is that states are highly correlated and tend to break his way, but even that isn't likely to help much...there just aren't that many reasonable pick-offs for either side.