What moron came up with THAT brilliant tactic!!?

Michale

What moron came up with THAT brilliant tactic!!?

Michale

Monkey, no make that money driven polls...although I do like the concept of monkey driven polls. An infinite number of monkeys on an infinite number of workstations....should take care of an infinite number of variables.

It's an interesting point you make about university polls, and why you don't see them in small EV or heavily tilted EV states for that matter. I think the answer is probably the US monetized educational system. If it can't bring $$$ to support the department, and overhead to support the institution, the project simply won't happen. I know this from personal experience.

Undergrad and grad students may work cheap, but everybody and everything else in the project tends to cost the market price.

Moving on...

Florey,

"Welcome to the party, pal!!!"

:D

Why is everyone making such a big deal about the latest email flap influencing the election and how it surely must or will affect the votes, which it really hasn't yet. I say this because why should it?

It's much too early to see any real results, however there have been many indications of Trump surges around the country... This is definitely the stake thru the heart of Camp Clinton...

As to WHY it matters, it simply shows the American people the true face of Camp Clinton and shows how Clinton will govern..

With duplicity and greed that has absolutely no regard for the rule of law...

Millions and millions of fence-sitters are now Trump supporters today because of that nearly one-million new batch of emails that have been found..

THAT is why this new discovery matters..

EMAIL LIVES MATTER

CW,

Welcome back, get some rest, and get well soon! Things get less lively around here without your contentiousness...

The biggest impediment is typing with one hand. I am just not used to typing wit one hand.. To which my wife gives me an eye-roll and a "ssheeya, right!"...

What's up with that!??

Liz,

I think it's too late for that ... agreeing with Michale, I mean. :)

It's never to late to renounce the Dark Side... :D

Michale

Welcome back, get some rest, and get well soon! Things get less lively around here without your contentiousness...

I think it's too late for that ... agreeing with Michale, I mean. :)

It's never to late to renounce the Dark Side... :D

Michale

I think it's too late for that ... agreeing with Michale, I mean. :)

Seriously, florey?

Here, we try to live very much in the real world ...

First off, welcome to the site! Your first comment was automatically held for moderation, but from now on you should be able to post your comments instantly.

Just don't use more than one link per comment, as comments with multiple links are also held for moderation (which can take a while, sometimes).

As for your final sentence, please see today's column (which I just posted, for everyone's info...). I had to take a walk down a rather cynical pathway myself, today...

-CW

Heh.

Welcome back, and get well soon!

altohone [1] -

Yeah, I'm always amazed that more people don't follow my "4 day rule." Nothing shows up accurately in the polls until (minimum) 4 days afterwards. Any event takes at least a day or two to sink in with the public. Polling (good polling) always spans at least two days. Then there's usually one final day to crunch numbers. Therefore, the EARLIEST real reaction shows up 4 days after the event.

TheStig [2] -

You're probably right about GA. In my stats, I think that was one of the two states I called wrong in 2008 -- I got exuberant and called it for Obama.

As for polling weaknesses, I agree when it comes to big, money-driven polling operations. But there are also university-driven polls, conducted for and by polysci students (as I understand it), so why aren't there a few university polls from (say) Hawaii? After all, there are local races to poll as well as the presidential one, right? So how hard is it to add "Clinton/Trump?" to a poll on the governor's race or the Senate race?

Hmph.

-CW

S i am thinking this is all a post-surgical Trump kicks ass dream. bu then i think.....

"Naw,if this a dream, there would be rum!!"

Anywauys..... where was i??

oh yes...

Shift the spotlight elsewhere - Comey's failure to follow procedure, precedent, chain of command and...apparently, getting a warrant.

Getting a warrant?? For what, exactly?? The laptop is the proprty of Anthony Weiner and was freely given to the FBI. no warrant required..

The mere fact that there ARE almost a quarter million emails on there is the only relevant fact here.

if i may slip into my old drugfree meat-suit for a moment, i would say "if the laptop was obtained by nefarious means, those who complain about content mifght have a case. but it was'nt so they don't"

ASide to JL. i am beginning to appreciate you'r lack of punctuationion. It makes things somewhat tedious to cross the i s and dot the t s..

This little missive alone tyook me about 30 mins to cresate. now where is my bootle of carvililiol and diazapam..

Some minor dissent from me (as per usual). I would color Colorado dark blue. Florida light blue, still competitive, but a strong lean towards Clinton.

Ohio and AZ rate a lite red in my book. Odds clearly favor Trump, but not by that much. Sort of "on any given day" sorts of odds. I'd upgrade Utah to mid red, as well as Georgia. I just can't see Georgia as a neutral gray. As big as Atlanta Metro is, it's still not big enough!

I think, the "polling weaknesses" aren't really weaknesses - they are actually a smart allocation of limited polling resources ($$$$$ and geeks). All these states are historically in one camp (1's and 0's for all practical odds purposes) and contain close to the minimum allotment of EVs. Even if the historical assumptions are wrong, these low EV states aren't likely to swing the election. Put your money and staff where the predictive power is!

For all the talk of shifting polling sands, I don't see anything that indicates a pronounced shift in Trump's favor. Florida and Ohio aren't critical, Colorado is critical and is STILL strongly favoring Clinton with a tight fist around 272 EV.

It's probably too late for the polls to catch anything less than an absolute collapse by Clinton, the signal to noise ratio is just too low given the remaining amount of time. My guess is that their aren't many persuadable voters left, people have already decided which candidate they don't like the most.

The Clinton Camp's response to the Comey "bombshell" is really straight out of the Trump playbook! Shift the spotlight elsewhere - Comey's failure to follow procedure, precedent, chain of command and...apparently, getting a warrant. Compare and contrast to Comey's failure to make a weekend press announcement concerning the FBI's apparent knowledge (and concern?) of Trump ties to Putin. Why is Comey deciding what the voting public should be worried about. These are effective questions. When the mud is slung, sling more mud back as hard as possible.

It always cracks me up when you point out the polling doesn't reflect recent events... because every single time you do so, there's a headline for an article on HuffPo that boils down to either "No noticeable effect in polling from (insert scandal or news event)", or "Polls show impact from whatever".

They are either ignorant, or less professional than you are... and I'm thinking it's probably both.

A