You are no claiming that Pennsylvania NEVER went from Lean Clinton to toss up...

Oh, I see your problem, snowflake... it's your reading comprehension problem. Of course, I never claimed any such thing. I said... repeat: "Trump NEVER was even or ahead" in Pennsylvania, and it's a fact that Trump wasn't ever even or ahead in Pennsylvania.

While it's true that Pennsylvania going from "lean Clinton" to "toss-up" means it has become a competitive state, it doesn't mean Trump "closed the gap to a tie." In contrast, Florida actually is a toss-up state where Trump held a lead. "Toss up" means "competitive"... NOT "tied."

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html#polls

Check the polling, snowflake; Trump was never tied in Pennsylvania. Oh, sure, you might be able to cherry pick a poll, but he NEVER held a lead... believe me.

I must really be getting to you.. :D

Oh, really? Well, as for who is getting to whom, I see you're calling other people "snowflake" now, and that is my name for you... MINE... ME... MY name for YOU. I'm not stealing your stuff, snowflake; you're stealing mine! :)

But I heard you are on drugs, so I'll let it slide... this time. :D

Ahhhh now you're delusional..

You are no claiming that Pennsylvania NEVER went from Lean Clinton to toss up...

I must really be getting to you.. :D

Michale

Ahhhh now you're delusional..

You are no claiming that Pennsylvania NEVER went from Lean Clinton to toss up...

I must really be getting to you.. :D

Michale

It's funny how you NEVER wanted to talk about Pennsylvania when Trump had closed the gap to a tie...

It's funny how the House Troll thinks it knows what I talk about based on a comments section of a blog. *LOL*

Trump NEVER "closed the gap to a tie" in Pennsylvania, and I did post with you about it, didn't I? Reminding you I said wake me up when Trump was ahead in Pennsylvania; Trump NEVER was even or ahead.

Did House Troll NOT get enough attention about Pennsylvania? House Troll's posts today have the stench of desperation and neediness. Could House Troll ever get enough attention? :D

So if Trump is at 30%, and Hillary at 49%...?

Winning isn't enough apparently.

That's pretty sad.

Is it based on ideological purity to the two party system, political greed, or paranoia?

Anyway... remember this day if Hillary hits 51%.
Hard to believe she's struggling to get there with an "opponent" like Trump.
A

Oh, nice catch! I read that and didn't make the Ripley connection, so thanks for pointing it out!

:-)

altohone [60] -

Yep. When Hillary is clearly above 50% in the national polls. Then 3rd parties will be immaterial (if it happens, I should add -- her husband didn't manage this feat on either election day).

Michale [68] -

I think it was James Carville who best described PA. I forget the first part of the quote (about the metropolitan areas of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia) but it ended with "... and Alabama in the middle." Like many states, the urban/rural divide is pretty noticeable on Election Day (heck, it's even noticeable here in sunny CA). Problem for the GOP is (and has been, for the last SIX presidential elections) that there's more people in the blue areas. Game over.

-CW

You know I'm right...

In other words, ya'all will do EXACTLY what ya'all are claiming Trump supporters will do... :D

Michale

I can turn the same question around...

If Trump wins in a landslide will Weigantians admit they got beat like a rug??

Of course they won't...

The WPG will scream FRAUD!!!! and CHEAT!!!!! to the high heavens...

You know I'm right...

Michale

So grabbing a woman by the pussy is BAD..

Grabbing a woman by the ass is perfectly acceptable..

Once again, you see why ya'all have absolutely NO MORAL FOUNDATION to condemn Trump....

NONE... ZERO.... ZILCH.... NADA...

With ya'all, it's SOLELY and COMPLETELY about Party ideology..

This has been PROVEN beyond ANY shadow of a doubt...

Michale

BAD

https://www.shtfplan.com/conspiracy-fact-and-theory/erection-2008-video-surfaces-of-obama-flaunting-his-junk-to-reporters-on-campaign-plane_10112016

Obama flaunting his erection to a plane full of female reporters??

NO PROBLEM

Do you see why no one can take ya'all seriously when it comes to ya'all's Trump bashing??

Because it is demonstrably obvious that it is ALL based solely and completely on who has the '-D' and who has the '-R' after their name...

Michale

I guess black lives DON'T matter to Hillary when the black person is the son of her rapist husband...

Color me shocked... :^/

Michale

It's funny how you NEVER wanted to talk about Pennsylvania when Trump had closed the gap to a tie...

Now that Hillary has a lead again, NOW you are gushing about Pennsylvania...

That's the difference between a Party sheep (you) and an independent thinker (me)...

You are afraid of bad news so you don't discuss any issues when they are against your candidate..

Since I am not a slave to Party, I have no such fear...

Michale

https://www.znak.com/2016-10-11/rossiyskim_chinovnikam_i_deputatam_rekomendovano_vernut_detey_i_roditeley_na_rodinu

.... is an ominous development...

Michale

If ya'all's Russian Fear Mongering wasn't so sad, it would be laughable...

Michale

There's ya'all's chosen candidate..

How anyone can vote for Hillary Clinton.... well, it just boggles the mind... :^/

Michale

Always trying to rewrite history to fit yer ideology.. :D

Regardless, the Weigantian "Polls" clearly showed that every Weigantian was dead sure that BREXIT would fail...

Ya'all were wrong then...

Ya'all will be wrong again...

"Marge, that rhymes and you know it!!!"
-Homer Simpson

:D

Michale

I am not surprised that you would take the Sherman, JM.. :D

Must be the Floridian in ya.. :D

Of course, I expect the answer to be different for Trump, since after all, because he has an R after his name, so many of his supporters seem to think he can do no wrong. :-D

Actually, I already answered it.. And my answer was the same as yours..

Michale

No, that is not the "only" reason...

MY reason for bringing it up is a warning to the Democrat Party..

Don't cheat.. The consequences would be bad..

who then report to 50 individual state governments for certification of results, a HUGE percentage of which would have to be in on some vast conspiracy in order to swing an election to one particular candidate.

What "vast conspiracy"??? Democrat leaders simply let it trickle down to the minions to do ANYTHING to insure that Hillary wins...

Michale

Two words for you..

BREX IT :D

It probably makes you feel better to keep posting about how all the Brexit polls showed a different outcome, but the fact is that the Brexit polls were mixed.

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

The fact is that there is still time and Trump could win. Trump's path to the White House has always been a narrow path that almost requires that he win the state of Pennsylvania, and the demographic makeup of voters in that state has never favored him. :)

Is there a point at which the hysteria directed at third party voters dies down?

A

He will concede gracefully while the cameras are on him, then go home, wind himself up and go on a rabid tweet storm about how he was cheated and the system is rigged.

Then the Trumpettes will rant and rave about "riggers", because that is what they want to do anyway. Some of them might not be able to pronounce "riggers" correctly, but I'm sure that will be what they mean.

"If there is unequivocal and bona fide factual PROOF of Democrat cheating in the election...

Would you still support Hillary for POTUS???"

Actually, to be fair, that should read: If there is unequivocal and bona fide factual proof of either Hillary Clinton herself, her campaign organization, or the Democratic National Committee working either alone or in partnership to illegally insure that Hillary Clinton wins through massive fraud and cheating, would you still support Hillary for POTUS? THERE, FIXED IT for YA!

Just to satisfy you, the answer would be, NO.

Of course, I expect the answer to be different for Trump, since after all, because he has an R after his name, so many of his supporters seem to think he can do no wrong. :-D

Are we supposed to be afraid? To quake and shiver in fright? As Hillary said today (and her life is constantly threatened): "Bring it on". She should have added: 'bitch!'.

Hillary Clinton is Ellen Ripley!

"Like I said.. Armed rebellion if there is ANY evidence of cheating or fraud..."

The ONLY reason to bring this up is fear of Trump losing, and losing BIG. Remember, even though this is a Presidential election, there is NO such thing as a National election in the USA. It is held by THOUSANDS of local county election supervisors, who then report to 50 individual state governments for certification of results, a HUGE percentage of which would have to be in on some vast conspiracy in order to swing an election to one particular candidate. It just boggles the mind that ANYONE would even think this a remote realistic possibility.

Didna think so... :D

Michale

If ya'all want to take a "Sherman" and state, for the record, that you will accept the outcome of the vote regardless of ANY other consideration.....?????

"I'm all ears"
-Ross Perot

:D

Michale

Just imagine what ya'all would say if we have a BREXIT type outcome???

Won't ya'all be feeling a bit...uh.... "militant"???

Or will you accept the outcome with a sigh and an "OH WELL"...

You see my point???

You would be thinking *EXACTLY* what I am saying now...

Michale

It's well documented that Democrats HAVE used physical violence against Trump supporters..

but at the same time the day after the election, they'll all be armed and the Dems won't so therefore they'll be triumphant.

Yep, pretty much.. :D

OK, let me get this straight. All the polls show Hillary with huge lead before election. Hillary wins election with huge margin. So, obviously, the answer has to be "she cheated!"

Not at all... But let's turn it around...

Hillary shows a big lead in the polls, but Trump wins..

What would the response from the Democrats be??

yea... See??

Or will they whine about non-existent cheating? I think, a month out, we already have the answer to that.

And if I was talking about non-existent cheating, you would have a point... But I am not, so you don't.. :D

I am talking about.. what was it I said???

unequivocal and bona fide factual PROOF of Democrat cheating in the election..

I'll ask you the same question that Balthasar was afraid to answer..

If there is unequivocal and bona fide factual PROOF of Democrat cheating in the election...

Would you still support Hillary for POTUS???

Will Trump conceded with a gracious speech on Election Night? Or will he rant and rave? Or pout and refuse to appear?

I would say it will depend on the circumstances of the loss...

Now, let me ask you...

Will Hillary conceded with a gracious speech on Election Night? Or will she rant and rave? Or pout and refuse to appear?

I mean, I do feel for you, this must be a rough time. And I'm not talking about storm cleanup, either. Even the LA Times skewed poll is about to show Hillary with a lead. Must be rough -- hasn't anyone created an "unskewed polls" page out there, a la Mitt? At least then you could look at numbers that said your guy was going to win (and then we'd all enjoy watching Karl Rove meltdown on Election Night once again, too!)...

Two words for you..

BREX IT :D

Michale

So, let me see... you're saying that Trump voters won't admit they're Trump voters because they're terrified of the big, bad Dems who will use physical violence against them, but at the same time the day after the election, they'll all be armed and the Dems won't so therefore they'll be triumphant.

Um, OK. No disconnect there.

Heh.

Balthasar [30] -

"banana-Republican" -- that's pretty good! I like it!

:-)

Michale (re: cheating) -

OK, let me get this straight. All the polls show Hillary with huge lead before election. Hillary wins election with huge margin. So, obviously, the answer has to be "she cheated!"

Um, right. Because, you know, facts are irrelevant when your guy loses. Right-o.

I mean, I do feel for you, this must be a rough time. And I'm not talking about storm cleanup, either. Even the LA Times skewed poll is about to show Hillary with a lead. Must be rough -- hasn't anyone created an "unskewed polls" page out there, a la Mitt? At least then you could look at numbers that said your guy was going to win (and then we'd all enjoy watching Karl Rove meltdown on Election Night once again, too!)...

Michale [32] -

(see: 2000 election, Bush v Gore)

Here's a question for you:

If Hillary Clinton wins by X votes, obviously there was no cheating.

What value of X would you accept? 500,000? 5,000,000? If it's a landslide, then cheating wouldn't have changed anything one way or the other -- cheating can only work when the margins are tiny, so if Hill wins in a landslide, will Trump voters admit they got beat like a rug?

Or will they whine about non-existent cheating? I think, a month out, we already have the answer to that.

Here's what I've been wondering:

Will Trump conceded with a gracious speech on Election Night? Or will he rant and rave? Or pout and refuse to appear?

I know which one my money's on.

:-)

-CW

95% of the men and women who carry guns for a living are Trump supporters....

What a perfect cluster-f*ck the Democrats have created here.... :D

Michale

They are SERIOUSLY mis-reading Trump supporters...

That's all I am saying...

Michale

See, it can happen!!

Now, if you could be as critical of the Democrat Party as I am of the Republican Party, we would likely have absolutely NOTHING to debate..

But you can't... Democrat is your religion and you MUST have faith....

Michale

Actually, that was one of his better moments.|

I am pleasantly surprised to hear you say that.. :D

Keep it up. Maybe you can drive the independents who support Trump away, too.

How so?? By supporting the rule of law to the hilt, with force of arms, if necessary??

How could that POSSIBLY drive away Independents??

Even if it did drive them away, then it's probably a good thing as they would be useless anyways...

"Five young boys went over the wall last night."
"Well, it sounds like those 5 weren't much good to us anyways"
-TAPS

:D

Michale

Keep it up. Maybe you can drive the independents who support Trump away, too. Certainly the Mormons, maybe some conservative Catholics...

Actually, that was one of his better moments.

On this we agree, although Reince, who's been really trying, has that desperate look of a young host whose house party has gone horribly wrong. "Wait! We can still make this work! Look, I'm dancing!"

I believe ya'all condemned Bush when he said the exact same words to the terrorists...

Thereby once again, proving there is no difference between the Left Wingery and the Right Wingery...

But, if the Democrat Party cheats and commits fraud..

I can guarantee you that you WILL see it brought on....

And no amount of "safe spaces" will help the Demcorat Party.... :D

Michale

Are we supposed to be afraid? To quake and shiver in fright? As Hillary said today (and her life is constantly threatened): "Bring it on". She should have added: 'bitch!'.

But you get the idea....

Michale

"Michale.. If there is unequivocal and bona fide factual PROOF of Republican cheating in the election..

Would YOU support Trump if he won by cheating???"

Frak no!!! I would hang him myself personally!!!!!

You see how easy that is???

Michale

I'll try again..

If there is unequivocal and bona fide factual PROOF of Democrat cheating in the election..

Would YOU support Hillary if she won by cheating???

It's a simple YES or NO question...

Michale

I would certainly wait for a Justice Department investigation, including FBI confirmation that such a crime had been committed. You'd need hard evidence that Hillary had a part in it.

But if the 'fraud' you allege is the penny-ante stuff that Republican zealots have complained about before, don't expect me to shed my loyalty. Voter fraud in US elections have never been significant percentage-wise, Republican talking points notwithstanding.

Republican voter-supression attempts, however, are still a reality, the admonishment by the Court to Rick Scott over his attempt to curtail voter registration being only the latest example.

As I said, this is all nothing more than an attempt to prepare the face-saving excuses for later.

If there is unequivocal and bona fide factual PROOF of Democrat cheating in the election..

Would YOU support Hillary if she won by cheating???

I know the answer, but I just want to see if you will admit it...

Michale

What part of *IF* do you not understand??

The fact is, there have been numerous reports of voter registration fraud from many states...

Do you expect Trump supporters to grab up their phallic firesticks and murder their fellow Americans on behalf of the Great Pumpkin?

I expect that if Democrats try to steal the election, they will be met with a forcible response to dissuade them from such illegal activities...

That'll really make America Great Again.

Why yes... yes it will...

Democrats accepted the verdict of a Supreme Court split along party lines in 2000.

Apples and orangutans...

There was no question of fraud in the 2000 election...

Trump folks could man up and accept reality too, if they still have any perception of it.

Trump supporters have no problem with accepting reality and the rule of law..

But if a the rule of law is usurped...???

Well, like I said.. 98% of Trump supporters are armed... .002% of Hillary supporters are armed..

I am sure you can do the math....

Michale

I see now. The Trump folks have decided that they cannot win. Therefore, they're gearing up a face-saving narrative that the election was stolen from them a month ahead of time.

I guess Trump has decided the same, since he's given up all pretense of attracting new voters to his cause, and decided to serve only red meat to the crowds from here on.

So why is Kellyanne Conway still around? At this point 'outreach to women' by Trump is a bad joke, at best.

What would you expect?? That Trump supporters would just accept it?

Do you expect Trump supporters to grab up their phallic firesticks and murder their fellow Americans on behalf of the Great Pumpkin?

That'll really make America Great Again.

Democrats accepted the verdict of a Supreme Court split along party lines in 2000. Trump folks could man up and accept reality too, if they still have any perception of it.

She walked onto the stage last night to face man who we'd all just learned had confessed, twice, to sexually assaulting women. Who had bragged about it. A man who has on two occasions implicitly called for her assassination. A man who has presided over rallies at which people are screaming about her: Hang the bitch; kill her…

http://www.shakesville.com/2016/10/lets-just-think-about-this-for-minute.html

It's great to see her big smiles at that Ohio State rally.

Hillary played the long game in Ohio. While polls looked tough the campaign continued to build a superior ground game, register scores of voters, and continued to push a strong economic message. Now that is bearing fruit in Ohio.

What would you expect?? That Trump supporters would just accept it??

Turning it around, if there is evidence of cheating or fraud that handed the Presidency to Trump, I would expect that the Left Wingery wouldn't accept it..

And THEY would take up arms...

Oh... wait... The Left Wingery is anti-gun...

They don't HAVE any arms...

Awwwwww... iddn't dat a shame.... heh :D

Michale

If Democrats have to cheat and commit fraud to win..

What would you expect?? That Trump supporters would just accept it??

I thought Trump crossed a line Sunday night when he suggested having Hillary prosecuted immediately upon his win. That's so banana-Republican.

Considering the crimes that Hillary has committed, patriotic Americans call it JUSTICE...

But I could understand why corporatists/globalists such as ya'all would feel different..

Anyone's entitled to believe what they want, but waiting in the Pumpkin Patch for the polls to rise is one thing,

threatening to shoot up the after-party is another.

The way to avoid that is quite simple..

Don't cheat or commit fraud....

Duh...

Like I said.. 98% of Trump supporters are armed..

Does the Left Wingery REALLY want to give them a reason???

Michale

Is this the bleak future that the Great Pumpkin and his Republican Gourds expect us to buy into? Tyranny? Politics at the point of a gun? Yuck.

I thought Trump crossed a line Sunday night when he suggested having Hillary prosecuted immediately upon his win. That's so banana-Republican.

The fact is that there's nothing, really, behind that terrible expression. It's a fake-out. It's really just a hollowed out shell that shines brightly, and only exists to amuse.

Anyone's entitled to believe what they want, but waiting in the Pumpkin Patch for the polls to rise is one thing, threatening to shoot up the after-party is another. Good Grief!

The spin is that Hillary hates THE PHRASE "everyday Americans".. but doesn't actually hate everyday Americans..

That doesn't make much sense because the email doesn't put the phrase in quotes as it would if they were actually TALKING about the phrase..

So, I am not sure..

And, since I am not sure, I have to put out the possibility that I might be wrong..

I am unique amongst Weigantians in that.... :D

Michale

So much for the myth that there is no voter fraud...

Like I said.. Armed rebellion if there is ANY evidence of cheating or fraud...

Michale

Gotta love Wikileaks!! :D

Michale

How do ya'all like yer candidate now, Sheeple?? :D

Michale

If, and it's a BIG 'if'.... IF Hillary does win, there have better not be even the SLIGHTEST WHIFF of cheating or fraud..

Because if there is, Trump supporters will take to the streets... And 98% of them are armed...

Michale

The facts say otherwise..

Trump knows that there's more, and worse video out there,

Prove it.. You can't because it's just wishful thinking on your part...

Unfortunately for the Great Pumpkin and his loyal Gourds, Bill isn't on the ticket,

But the wife who brutally attacked Bill's rape and sexual assault victims IS on the ticket..

and I'd give 99-1 odds against a Hillary sex tape emerging.

Eeeewww I think I just threw up in my mouth a little...

At this point, Hillary can coast to election day without releasing any new video, and the Orange One gets Squash(ed).

TRUMP IS TOAST prediction #422....

Accuracy to date?? ZERO....

:D

Michale

That is actually false. But it's an interesting bit of projection. Trump knows that there's more, and worse video out there, else he wouldn't be issuing threats to keep attacking Bill if they're aired.

Unfortunately for the Great Pumpkin and his loyal Gourds, Bill isn't on the ticket, and I'd give 99-1 odds against a Hillary sex tape emerging.

At this point, Hillary can coast to election day without releasing any new video, and the Orange One gets Squash(ed).

Am I wrong??

"You're not wrong..."
-God AKA Chuck

Michale

It's that simple...

Let me put it this way...

We could have bona fide and confirmed factual video of Hillary holding down a screaming woman while Bill repeatedly molests the woman and Hillary would STILL enjoy the support amongst the Left Wingery..

Hillary's support is IDEOLOGICAL... pure and simple....

Trump's support is not.. As ya'all have aptly proven beyond ANY doubt....

Michale

And, once again, the ideological bias is on full display.. When ya'all talk about Clinton it's "We have to wait a week or so for the polls to catch up to the debate..."

With Trump, ya'all are whining within 2 DAYS of the debate saying Trump didn't get no bounce at all..

Why don't ya'all just concede that ya'all are merely the Clinton Sheeple that Camp Clinton emails about and be done with it?? :D

It would make things so much easier as I wouldn't have to comment 100 times a day proving how wrong ya'all are.... :D

Michale

Well, it's not like Clinton having a lead in the polls is some new and/or unusual situation. That's just been the norm for the entire election season.

True... But no one wanted to talk about the polls when Trump was closing to a tie...

How come??

Do you think that's because Alaskan Trump supporters lie to pollsters about their voting intentions because they are especially afraid of violence by Democrats?

Yes I do... Violence from Democrats (which, I point out NO ONE here (NEN) has condemned) and scorn and ridicule from NeverTrumpers... Basically ideological slaves from the Left *AND* the Right...

Trump support is NOT ideological.. It's patriotic...

It's that simple...

Michale

Trump always seems to do best on BetFair between the hrs of midnight and dawn. Seven am EDT, and his numbers have taken a for the worse. I think this something to do with vampires.

As follow up to last years highly successful Trumpkin Pumpkin, I am going to start a Clinton stencil today. Pumpkins are really expensive this year. Six bucks!

Sorry, that was two things.

Yep, the smart money tend to make money by betting on the extremes. Prediction markets bias a bit too much toward 0 and 1. The bias is fairly small. I doubt more than a handful of traders can consistently out-perform the market + fees. Takes money to make money plus a lot of specialty software - or so I would guess.

I notice that your 7 category calls closely agree with the 7 UpShot categories. Upshot basically uses the following scheme (with some minor variation likely caused by rounding errors).

The following is my analysis of the color probability scheme associated with Upshot probabilities of Clinton winning.

Dark Blue (solid C): Greater than 95%
Mid Blue (likely C): 85-95%
Lt Blue (lean C) : 65-84%
Yellow (toss up) : 36-64%
Lt Red (lean T) : 16-35%
Mid Red (likely T) : 5-15%
Dark Red (solid T) : Less than 5%

Do your perceptions match the UpShot scheme?

I would personally favor narrowing the "Tossup" category to 45-55%, and call it "Competitive."
The problem with the broader range is that it makes for a system that is too reluctant to call a winner. A better than 65% chance of winning seems more than just a lean to me.

When I've run your colors matched to NYT p values thru a ranked ordered model over the past few weeks, I get Clinton prob of win in the better than 70% range. That seems more than just a lean, at least to me. The rank ordered computation model is giving very similar results to a simulation, which tends to be the case late in an election.

North Carolina and Florida. I color both of these a light blue. The Six Tenors over at NYT upshot all put Florida in the 70%-mid 80% range. That is a pretty strong lean in my book, bordering an upgrade to Mid Blue. North Carolina is less favorable for Clinton, but all 6 UpShot hosted prognosticators put her ahead with a range of 61%-80%. That does not look like a "toss up" to me.

I am pleasantly surprised by Ohio. I had pretty much written it off, but Clinton is making a pretty good rebound. In the aggregate, NC looks a little more favorable to Clinton than OH, so color NC Light Blue.

Let me start with a prequel noting that prediction markets and polls indicate to me that Trump did not get any boost from Debate II. Betfair and PredictIt trading both strongly suggest Trump's performance only slowed his rate of decline. Snap polls that I can find agree with this, and as usual, you can find a pundit or push poll somewhere in the InfoSphere that will say nearly anything you might like to hear.

Looking back roughly 1 year (PredictWise is good for this because it doesn't compress the time axis) a Generic Democrat matched against a generic Republican looked like a 60%:40% probability ratio. Trump is now looking like an 18% shot, which very nearly his all-time low. Clinton is in the 80%s, at her all time high. Trump has never seen odds any better than 35%, and these only for a matter of days. Trump was given better than his current odds at the White House when he was still a nominee fighting 3 other more or less credible contenders for the nomination! As I noted a few days back, Trump has had 5 major meltdowns in his quest to be President. He has clawed his way back 4 times, but he's never been able to break out of the 30% range and his broad trend is asymptotic to underdog. In her darkest days, Clinton has held the lead.

None of this should surprise. Trump is an insurgent, with no prior political experience taking on the Super Bowl of world politics. He has shown NO political discipline or focus. He shows no desire to learn. He is a series of Tweets. Conventional Wisdom can be wrong, but not usually. Trump was and is a very weak candidate "heading" a fractured GOP. Thirty days to go.

The thing about the polls ya'all are worshiping (now that Clinton is leading, funny, eh? :D)...

Well, it's not like Clinton having a lead in the polls is some new and/or unusual situation. That's just been the norm for the entire election season.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

However, it's still surprising to me that states like Alaska (which typically are very Republican leaning) are so soft for Trump. Do you think that's because Alaskan Trump supporters lie to pollsters about their voting intentions because they are especially afraid of violence by Democrats?

War with Russia....

Courtesy of Odumbo and The Demcorat Party....

Michale

I would ask ya'all to condemn that, but I know THAT is a futile endeavor.. :^/

Which says something in itself..

Michale

Trump supporters are physically ATTACKED and physically ASSAULTED by Hillary supporters...

So, of course, they are not going to out themselves and risk physical danger from the Clinton loons, thugs and scumbags...

Ya'all will know this to be factual when Trump wins by a comfortable margin if not an outright blowout...

Michale

Prediction markets get less accurate as the value approaches zero or 100.

Or rather, less rational. Sounds like the scenario you describe (one should buy at 1, because the race will shortly tighten to, say, 2 - in which case, profit!) is the 'greater fool theory' approach; which works great until it doesn't.

My conspiracy theory: Republican backed polls begin to lean anti-Trump, to justify RNC abandoning his campaign. Also, the Moon Landings were faked!

Kentucky is famous for defying YOUR concept of "reason"..

But you are voting for a woman who is a liar, a cheat, an enabler of a serial rapist and who put this country's national security at risk...

So, YOUR concept of "reason" is not logical or rational..

Michale

The NO-BREXIT polls were strong going in....

BREXIT won....

Michale

Don't be so sure. Kentucky is famous for its ability to defy reason. Think about it: their Senators are Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul, and the Governor, Bevin, just elected last year, is a Tea Party lunatic.

The counties to watch are at the top of the state, which resemble conservative southern Ohio in their voting patterns. If they go for Clinton, then this contest really could be a blowout.

I'd discount it but since Trump insists on bragging about "the Google" when it suits him, it should be noted.

In reality Trump will win Kentucky by double digits.