"Do you have a problem with English"

There is definitely a reading comprehension issue.

TRANSLATION:

I cannot address your points in a logical and rational manner so I will simply make a immature personal attack thereby conceding my impotence and your intellectual superiority...

Ummm, no... that was English. Do you have a problem with English or did you just need something to translate?

Ty syuda chasto prikhodish'? Mne ne interesno. Ostav' menya v
pokoye.

Translate that.

Anyhoo, if you're done yanking your own chain, please note that this bit of spew you're calling a "TRANSLATION" contains some actual instructive psychological projection.

BONUS: You could unintentionally accidentally get some insight into yourself with that TRANSLATION/NOT TRANSLATION nugget... and you have yourself to thank for it.

Thank you. Your concession of my superiority is appreciated albeit irrelevant...

You thanked yourself and then you noted your irrelevance. Wow! I think you've truly had a breakthrough here.

Pa`ka, da `zavtra.

And by doing so, screwing over each and every member of Weigantia..

Of course, that doesn't bother them whatsoever.. As long as they are happy, to hell with everyone else..

How Left Wingery of them... :^/

Michale

Heh -- couldn't resist...

Of course... But READING don't put bacon on the griddle if ya know what I mean.. :D

Michale

TRANSLATION:

I cannot address your points in a logical and rational manner so I will simply make a immature personal attack thereby conceding my impotence and your intellectual superiority...

Thank you. Your concession of my superiority is appreciated albeit irrelevant...

Michale

Oh, OK. At least I know what you're talking about now.

But seriously, I read all the comments, isn't that the most important thing?

Heh -- couldn't resist...

:-)

-CW

The illegal regime change war in Libya that destroyed a country that didn't attack us or pose any threat to us is not only a war crime, it is in a long line of war crimes the US has committed with bipartisan support.
Silence is consent. and the Repubs in Congress are equally guilty in tolerating the Obama admins blatant violation of the UN authorized no fly zone with Hillary cheerleading all the way.

In many ways, the Repubs idiotic focus on Benghazi is directly to blame for preventing a debate on the true crimes that were committed. If the Republican Party had a shred of credibility or morality they would have used the endless hearings and wasted millions to expose them.
(see the British government report that exposed many of the lies we were told)

There is currently a massive PR campaign pushing for a no fly zone in Syria. Hillary is a full throated supporter.

After the bait and switch that Obama and Hillary used to illegally effect regime change in Libya, there is a zero percent chance that the UN Security Council will vote to support a no fly zone in Syria.

Therefore, all the supporters of a no fly zone in Syria, the neocons and the neoliberals including Hillary are either dishonest or delusional... or... and this is a BIG or... they want to implement one without UN authorization.

Doing so would require a direct military confrontation with Russia, so they are talking about potentially risking WWIII... all to protect foreign "rebels" who are proxies in our illegal regime change war to oust Assad... "rebels" who are dominated by al Qaida and Wahhabi Sunni militants with identical ideology.

Risking WWIII in order to protect our enemy... the people who attacked us on 9/11?

Are Dems going to wake up to the fact that neolibcons are a plague on our country and our planet?
Are Repuns going to wake up to the fact that Trump is fully embracing neolibcon policies?

In addition to BOTH Trump and Hillary supporting this policy, you all may want to check out the whackadoodle comments from McCain and Petraeus... and while you're at it, check out Obama's comments for reasons to oppose it.

In any case, whoever wins in November will need to be confronted by an organized opposition from Americans in both parties if they seek to actually implement such a foolish policy with dire consequences.
This is not a right and left issue, it's a right and wrong issue,

A

If Camp Clinton continues to diss and attack Bernie and Bernie supporters, they are going to stay home by the millions....

With a simple substitution of the appropriate nouns, here you have demonstrated the capacity to understand why other posters might choose to simply block your posts with Charlie Brown's totally functional Tamper Monkey gadget. :)

"Why is it that every single year, I'm audited, whereas other people that are very rich people are never audited?"

. . . and now we know why. Monkey business. Be careful what you ask for Donald.

Have a ball.... :D

Michale

Protect Clinton at all costs...

No matter HOW many lives are ruined...

Michale

Trump got taken out of context on this one, but given his stupidity (e.g. the Purple Heart incident) I can understand why Joe would think it was a true reflection of Trump's intent.

However it reminds me again what a great VP Joe has been.

Note to everybody, I'm going to repost the link, it is worth watching.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS0nZt1Rtps

If Trump drops out (unlikely), the Repubs would probably be able to run a different candidate... and that could be very bad for Clinton's odds.

nypoet seems to think 40% of Hillary's support comes from the "Not Trump" crowd... and I would have to agree.

Any "not as bad as Trump" alternative could well mean Repubs winning the presidency.

Repubs may lose a few of the deluded types who think Trump isn't part of the establishment, but with so much of the effort by Hillary's campaign focused on why not to vote for Trump (which as I mentioned a few days ago is killing the Dems chances down ticket), it's hard to imagine an equally effective strategy against a different candidate.

A

So what you're saying is "my ideology = grass roots patriotic American, but the other side's is just 'ideology'."

It's not what *I* am saying... It's what YA'ALL have been saying...

Ya'all have gone on and on about how much Republicans hate Trump...

Yet, Trump enjoys tens of millions of supporters....

If it's not ideology, as ya'all have aptly proven, then what IS drawing Trump supporters???

Patriotism... Make America Great Again...

It's the ONLY logical answer...

LizM and Michale -

Wait... you guys are in agreement? The Cubs are favored to win the World Series? Trump is a candidate for president?

It's been happening more and more often.. :D

Michale [47] -

Um, what? What was that about fundraising? I'm confused...

I am glad you asked..

As you know, my donations are based on my comment count @.50 per comment...

When I reach 700 comments, 800 comments, 1000 comments..... such comment counts don't happen in a vacuum..... That kind of comment count is predicated on stimulation from the WPG...

If there are a bunch of wussies who use a crutch (IE filter) to eliminate my comments, then the stimulus for my large comment count disappears...

What these crutch'ed wussies don't get is that it's donations that keep CW.COM ad-free and much more enjoyable for all...

They would rather be spineless and selfish and make everyone suffer...

I just can't see how I can reach a comment count that is my norm, if I don't have any stimulation from the WPG....

That's what I mean by CW.COM suffering from their wussiness...

You know me.. I'll do my best.... But I am only human.... ish... :D

Michale

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS0nZt1Rtps

Um...

Hillary's support is 1000% unequivocally ideological...

Trump's support is 1000% grass roots patriotic American...

So what you're saying is "my ideology = grass roots patriotic American, but the other side's is just 'ideology'."

OK, got it. Like a kung-fu film: "my dragon-style will crush your monkey-style!"

Heh. I'm sure you've got an appropriate movie quote for that one... maybe from "Drunken Master" with Jackie Chan?

nypoet22 [24] -

I won't quibble with your percentages, but I think you've largely got the group dynamic breakdown nailed. Although I might add in 10% on both sides that are "voting for the balance of the Supreme Court, but don't really like their own candidate."

After today's polls, I've already moved Ohio into the pink. But I disagree about CO -- one poll just showed Clinton up 11 points there.

LizM and Michale -

Wait... you guys are in agreement? The Cubs are favored to win the World Series? Trump is a candidate for president?

[Insert snarky "signs of the apocalypse" joke here]

Heh. Actually, I would put it differently.

"Hillary Clinton is a weak candidate with an excellent campaign behind her..."

Hillary's not very good at campaigning. That's not even in question. But her campaign is actually pretty excellent in many regards -- witness the seamless rollout of the Marchado video last week, after the debate. And witness her ground game efforts everywhere.

Hillary's campaign is what might just save her from her weaknesses at giving a stump speech. Maybe I'm splitting hairs, but that's the way I see it.

LizM [37] -

Some of them do think they'll be able to pass their stuff and have Pres. Trump sign it (Paul Ryan, for example). But most of them are just terrified of a backlash from Trump supporters in their own state or district, that's what I think.

TheStig [38] -

I enter the data by hand, myself, onto an Excel spreadsheet. I find it keeps me aware of what is going on in each state on a daily basis.

Michale [42] -

Don't worry, there's always the LA Times, who seems to be running "unskewed polls" to wildly overstate GOP chances. They just showed Trump up by 5 points! So be happy, the unskewed poll universe is still there to take comfort in (all other polls showed Clinton up by 4-6 points).

neilm [46] -

That's a pretty good list. Last one was funny!

What would I add? Hmmm...

* Either candidate punching the other in the face during a debate.

* Economic meltdown a la 2008.

* Clinton appears on SNL, nails it (even the opening line).

This could be a fun game for all to play...

:-)

Michale [47] -

Um, what? What was that about fundraising? I'm confused...

-CW

All Left Wingery sources...

If you want ANY credibility at all, TS... Try using sources that are not lockstep with your Party slavery...

I'm just sayin'....

Michale

My model should always give an almost identical probability as the rank ordered computation (see post 38) when National Variance is set to 100% The model passed this sanity test for all 6 data sets.

Trump always does worst when the National Component is set to zero: this gives him the least chance of running the swing states. Trump does not do best with 100% National Variance, something in between gives him his best shot, usually, something very roughly in the range of 50% is optimal.

My model bounds the predicted probability of the following prognosticators: NYT, 538, Predict Wise, PEC and Daily Kos, using 60, 50, 80 and 20% National Variance, respectively. My model does not capture the HuffPO 82% prediction: No amount of national variance does the trick, my model predicts Clinton's chances are 8-18% higher than HuffPo's 82% chance of a Clinton victory (using the HuffPO state data of course).

Seemingly small changes in the electoral map can have a dramatic impact on a candidate's overall chances. It all comes down to genuinely competitive states, and there aren't many. Very small amounts of National Variance have a BIG impact on Clinton's odds. Wisconsin is currently a tipping point. Her odds in WI give you a good idea of her odds in general.

“Hillary didn’t vote for the ’94 crime bill even though Sen. Sanders did,” the former president shot back, as a heckler was removed from the rally.

If Camp Clinton continues to diss and attack Bernie and Bernie supporters, they are going to stay home by the millions....

Michale

That is a very thoughtful (in the sense of thought provoking) question.

Let me start by saying that none of the 6 models, or my reinterpretation of the 6 models, excludes either candidate from a reasonably high chance of becoming president given factors we know now, and even given the eight factors that might possibly occur as envisioned by neilm. Election forecasts are not cast in stone, the closer you get to election day, the better the forecasts tend become. It's like shooting at targets, the closer you are, the better you get, and anybody is likely to be pretty good if they are withing spitting distance of the target.

If Trump drops out, the odds dramatically shift in Clinton's favor - but what are the odds of Trump dropping out at this late date, or an even later date? Terrorist attack? That's harder to judge, how bad, how close to the election, where it happens, all these factor in.

Forecast odds are basically a measure of belief. You can use them to wager, or underwrite insurance, which is really the same thing.

I was a risk assessment monkey for many years. I found the discipline useful for policy planning and intellectually challenging. Every 4 years I like to dust off the old neurons and have a go at it - one more time.

Of course it would... It's gonna work as far as totally decimating CW.COM annual fund-raising....

Not that any of the wussies using the crutch care about anything but their own selfish desires....

Michale

1. Illness of either candidate

2. Russia shoots down one of our planes over Syria (they have just announced they have deployed ground-to-air missiles in the region)

3. Leak of Trump's tax records show he gave nothing in charity for two decades

4. Bill or Donald gets caught with their pants down a la "Monkey Business"

5. Terrorist attack in U.S.

6. Liz is right and Trump drops out

7. Somebody follows Trump's "second amendment solution" advice (and fails we hope)

8. Kaine falls ill and Hillary replaces him with Sarah Palin ;)

Yep... As CW is fond of saying.... Weigantia is all about quality, not quantity... :D

Michale

Well then, I guess that discussion can only occur between the few of us. :)

Maybe if ya'all are lucky, my house will be transported to Oz and ya'all will have the rest of the year, Michale-Free... :D

heh

Michale

HuffPO:82%
Stig:92%

And you don't find it the LEAST bit bigoted that you *ONLY* use Left Wingery information, TS???

You see, that is exactly my point..

Ya'all (NEN) have completely jettisoned *ANY SEMBLANCE* of fairness, balance and reality and have totally and hysterically embraced utter bigotry....

Michale

And there is definitely validity to that blame..

The Leftist MSM has blatantly STATED that they see their job as stopping Trump from attaining the Presidency...

Journalistic ethics be damned...

Michale

It has all of the ingredients for a really fascinating discussion.

I completely agree...

But such a discussion is ONLY possible from a position of complete Party agnosticity...

There are few.... VERY FEW... Weigantians who can attain such agnosticity...

Michale

What sort of event - domestically or internationally - in the next 30 days might impact all of those probabilities so as to make them practically meaningless?

I always run a simple computational model on each new data set, a Rank ordered model which assumes a high degree of overall correlation in state voting behaviors. It is often, very close to the probability of winning the election given by the owners:operators of the data sets, and it takes next to no time to do the computation When it's wrong the rank, it tends to be overly conservative.. but not today!

NYT Times probability of Clinton Victory: 78%
Stig rank ordered model probability:77%

538 probability of Clinton Victory: 72%
Stig rank ordered model probability: 73%

PredictWise probability of Clinton Victory: 80%
Stig rank ordered model probability:89%

Princeton Electoral Commish:90%
Stig rank ordered model probability:69%

Daily Kos: 72%
Stig: 72%

HuffPO:82%
Stig:92%

I'll run the sim later today. I recently upgraded from Excel 2003 to Excel 2016. Much faster, due to a bug in the random number generator of 2003 that had to be worked around.

Why do think so many of the "mainstream" Republicans, currently serving in public office, support him so vigorously? Do they think that once he is elected they can act to create and direct an agenda for him to follow? Would he let them do this?

"Oh, he's having a moment, alright. And, it's the kind that comes with a big sigh of relief."

I take your point on that. Part of him is relieved, I don't think he ever thought he would come this far.
There is the ego thing too....he's looking the chump, he lost a debate, he lost control of the news cycle and ego trumps everything else.

One of the things Gary Hart is talking more about lately is the realignment of political parties and what it all means.

It has all of the ingredients for a really fascinating discussion.

True.

And there are those who vehemently and violently deny that....

Michale

True.

heh :D

Michale

My bark is worse than my bite. :)

This is how reasonable and rational people disagree....

Michale

And I would say that THAT number is more like 10% or less.. Most conservatives hate Trump more than they hate Hillary.. Why?? Because Trump is the ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT and they ARE the Establishment..

Michale

I would say that THAT number is closer to 60%, even 80%....

I know that for me, personally, I am one of those....

I don't particularly like Trump and I do cringe at some of the more moronic things he says..

But this country's direction MUST change and Trump is the ONLY one who has a good shot of doing that...

Michale

Perhaps.... But it's close enough to reality to be accurate...

http://www.chrisweigant.com/2016/09/30/ftp410/#comment-86025

Could you weigh in on that.. I don't want to leave an inaccurate quote hanging...

Michale

Trump's support is 1000% grass roots patriotic American...

@michale,

now that's just silly.

my view:

hillary's support is 20% hardcore partisans who would vote for ANY democrat, 20% feminist or activist ideologues who are voting for her gender or because obama said so, 20% pragmatists who are ignoring ideology and scandals and just flat out think she'll do a better job as president, and 40% people who think donald is such an ignoramus there's no other alternative.

donald's support is 20% alt-right bigots who mistakenly think he'll bring back segregation and would never vote for a woman, 20% reality-tv junkies who buy into his celebrity, 30% conservatives who have such a visceral hate for hillary that they'd vote for absolutely anybody to keep her out of the white house, and 30% who are so fed up with the political establishment that they're willing to risk global annihilation if it means sending a non-politician to the white house.

that's my view.

@CW,

as for the electoral map, i think it's about time to paint ohio pink, and colorado in my view is still very much grey. if i were donald i'd be on the offense right now in colorado, florida, north carolina and nevada. those are the states he needs to sweep and currently isn't.

JL

Eventually...... :^/

"When I was growing up we had a quick-sand box... I was an only child... Eventually..."
-Michael Wright

:D

Michale

Hillary's support is 1000% unequivocally ideological...

Trump's support is 1000% grass roots patriotic American...

As ya'all have proven, those whose ideology is first and foremost, they support Hillary...

Those who are AMERICANS first and foremost.... THEY support Trump...

It's ESTABLISHMENT/STATUS QUO vs CHANGE/SHAKE UP....

And THAT is why Trump will win...

That and the fact that Hillary's past is going to catch up to her in a big and devastating way.... :D

Michale

Hillary's State Dept staff investigated legal and *NONLEGAL* means to take out Assange...

Hillary herself said, "Can't we just drone this guy!?" The members of the meeting laughed as if it was a joke, but that died pretty quick when Hillary continued to speak in a serious manner..

"He's just walking around freely unafraid of any reprisals. He's a soft target..."

THAT is the person ya'all want as President? THAT is the person you want to give the nuclear launch codes to!?? Because, as ya'all have stated.. A president can unilaterally launch a nuclear strike completely and unequivocally on their own without ANY help from anyone...

Ya'all THINK that Trump is unstable..

We have bona-fide PROOF that Hillary wanted to launch a drone strike on an innocent person...

But Hillary has a '-D' after her name so that is ALL that is needed... :^/

Michale

More or less.. You agree that Hillary is running a crappy campaign and because of that, Trump might very well be our next President..

Let them try! :)

Heh.. I would like to see that.. No, that's not right. I shouldn't wish such pain and suffering... ON THEM!!! :D heh

Michale

Let them try! :)

Exactly...

It's nice to have someone who actually gets it... But be careful.. You saw what happened to Don when he agreed with me... :^/ The WPG tore him a new one.. :^(

Michale

He's appearing via video link.. He was going to announce from the balcony of the Ecuadorian Embassy, but they received intel that there would be an assassination attempt...

Maybe Hillary's suggested drone strike was put into play...

Michale

Word.....

Michale

Well, she would be if someone had given her my campaign advice ...

Just as Hillary can't put Trump away on HER merits...

Michale

Oh, he's having a moment, alright. And, it's the kind that comes with a big sigh of relief.

Because, it looks like Trump ain't gonna be able to put Hillary away on his "merits"... :^/

Michale

No one (except Liz, of course) wants to address that.. :D

Michale

And all of the attacks on Donald that the media is not talking about now, you better believe, come September, October, November, if he were the nominee, every day on the nightly news would be taking Donald apart. And the stakes are too high for us to risk that.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/face-the-nation-transcripts-march-6-2016-trump-cruz-clinton-priebus/

He posited that it was because they wanted Trump to win the primary because he'd be easier for Hillary to beat than himself.

I agree with his first point but not the reason. I think if the media is really that 'organized' the more likely reason is because Trump would sell more inches and pixels than Cruz, and now that Trump has done his work for them it is time to flush him and get the final payout.

-CW

I almost made all the shifts you suggest, but am awaiting further polling. I did see a poll from CO that put Clinton up by 11, but didn't see it before I wrote this. If I had, I probably would have considered it for Probably Clinton.

But from here on in, it'll be weekly, so I'll have a chance to shift things every Monday.

apophis [3] -

I like Pollster, and liked them even before HuffPost bought them. And I do check their state charts before writing this, but I've used Electoral-Vote.com from the beginning, so I'm not going to change now. I like the simple layout at their site, their daily wrapups, and their presentation of the data with a daily map.

-CW

Clinton 313 Trump 225 EV. Chance of a Trump win: 12%..

Clinton leads by 6.1% in the national.

There is a new odds maker in town: HuffPo. I give them a thumbs uo for detailing ther methodology, which seems sound (similar to NYT).

I think the news cycle has changed in a big way. Trum Taxes and Charities are just the opening salvos.. More to follow.. The media that made Trump is starting to turn on him. Clintom is sitting on a pile of money to hammer ithe message home: Trump is no populist.

I have to wonder what the guys on Trump's Secret Service detail are thinkig. "I'm suppossed to take a bullet for a guy who won't even help pay my salary?"