SHOCKING!!!!!! :D

Michale

The whole point of my MS Excel driven thought experiment was to illustrate you have to be very mindful of assumptions that drive election forecasts. 270ToWin's online sim is making the pretty extreme assumption that states are statistically independent. Political scientists know this is not the case.

270toWin is putting a pretty hefty thumb on the scale (in Clinton's favor) by assuming complete statistic independence. Multiply their projected Clinton probability of victory by something on the order of .8 to .85 and you are probably much closer to reality. A little bit of correlation in state behaviors goes a long way, and the effect (usually) seems to flatten out fairly quickly as you add more dependence. It's seems more accurate to assume zero independence and treat the states as thundering herds that tend to move roughly in the same direction towards D or R. This is also easy to compute by simple computation (all you have to do is rank order the states and take the probability of the state or states that bring the EV up to or over 270. This is a bit too conservative, but that's probably not a bad thing if you are a Clinton strategist. Err on the side of cautious expectations and work harder!

Exactly!!!

But TS, et al rely on the numbers when they numbers say what they want to hear...

The numbers that say that Trump is going to win???

THOSE numbers are ignored..

The **ONLY** thing predictable about this election is that it is completely, unequivocally and 1000% unpredictable...

Michale

Follow up to my own post 29 regarding the 270 To Win online election sim.

Assuming that states behave independently tends to inflate Clinton's odds by making it difficult for Trump to "run the table" among the small number of potentially competitive states: at this moment Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Iowa and perhaps Ohio, with a total of 74 EV.

My model has two components of variance driving the outcome, a state specific variance, and a national variance that impacts all 50 states and D.C. equally.

I've run today's state probability data from NYT, 538, Daily Kos, PredictWise and the Princeton Election Consortium through my model setting the national variance component between 100% and zero % of the total variance.

In all cases, Clinton does best when national variance is near zero, i.e states behave independently. With zero national variance, Clinton wins 92%,76%,73%, 94% and 86% of the time at NYT, 538, DK, PW and PEC, respectively. These are higher than the actual predictions of any of the five outfits, presumably they don't assume total independence. Small amounts of national variance have a noticeable impact, adding more tends to produce diminishing returns. High proportions of state variance (think 30-50%) reduce Clinton's odds by 15, 20% or even a bit more. I saw a similar effect in the 2012 election, but it seems stronger in 2016.

Assuming that states behave independently tends to inflate Clinton's odds by making it difficult for Trump to "run the table" among the small number of potentially competitive states: at this moment Florida, Nevada, North Carolina

Heh. Not if we're lucky! :)

It's a shame, because the rest of you seem okay, but I'm not willing to deal with it.

Actually, the real shame is that you don't know how to ignore what you call an obvious troll and deal with the rest of us. This may come as a shock to your system but the rest of us will be okay without your contributions. :)

I have absolutely ZERO respect for supposedly intelligent people who need a crutch to "ignore" viewpoints they don't like..

Michale

The CWTrollBlocker tampermonkey available in [86] above works like a charm. You should give it a try.

It's a shame, because the rest of you seem okay, but I'm not willing to deal with it.

"Then again, those condoning war crimes, fraud, injustice and environmental destruction do tend to think their rationalizations make sense."

"Well that's the thing. I have never heard Hillary condone war crimes, fraud, injustice and environmental destruction in any manner"

I was talking about you.
Giving Hillary your vote is condoning what she has already done.
Both of you being in denial about the facts doesn't change the facts.

As for the "electable" bit, once again you missed the point completely. If Hillary loses, the claim that she was electable becomes nonsense. She will have been proven unelectable.

Michale

Liz,

Isn't it just easier to ignore comments you don't like or wish to respond to?

They can't... :D

Makes me feel kinda proud that they have to rely on artificial means to NOT be exposed to differing viewpoints... :D

Michale

As opposed to the manner that my comments are addressed??

Of course, you don't address THAT, do you... :D

"Gee!! I wonder why that is!!!"
-Kevin Spacey, THE NEGOTIATOR

Michale

Rare occasions, my left arse check..

Google -"blue moon" chrisweigant.com- and you'll see there are plenty of occasions where I have admitted when I am wrong and apologized...

Now, try and find me one instance where ANYONE ELSE here has admitted they were wrong and apologized..

You will find exactly TWO instances.. In over 10 years..

But I know you won't address this. You never can admit when you are wrong...

Michale

When Michale begins a rant with "No one here has the moral authority to....", it means that he knows the message is true and he cannot deny it, so he has to attack the messenger.

You DO realize that you are doing EXACTLY what you are accusing me of right??

You are also missing the point of my comments..

The fact that ya'all are right or wrong is not the point.

It's the fact that you have no moral authority to pass judgement... THAT's the point of my comment...

Michale

They can't... :D

Makes me feel kinda proud that they have to rely on artificial means to NOT be exposed to differing viewpoints... :D

Michale

50 whole dollars.. Wow :^/

heh

Michale

Well that's the thing. I have never heard Hillary condone war crimes, fraud, injustice and environmental destruction in any manner. I have, however, heard Trump support three out of four of those things, and I'm pretty sure that at least two of those are at the top of Trump's "to do" list.

Of course, "electable" may just end up being the worst rationalization of the bunch.

Then don't take my word for it; I have no cred on the far left. Here, however, is Noam Chomsky on that exact subject:

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/noam-chomskys-8-point-rationale-voting-lesser-evil-presidential-candidate

"Let me know when you find an electable candidate that suits your obviously exacting standards. Until then, we'd all like you to set "perfect" aside, and concentrate on "not Trump"."

Couldn't care less what you'd like.
Jill Stein will get my vote without any hesitation or regret... and I live in a swing state.

"Not Trump" is such a pathetic reason to support a candidate who is oh so very far from perfect with truly disgusting policies though.

I guess you're also using the software to make the little bubble you live in even smaller, so now you can actually believe it's true when you write "we'd all like you to set perfect aside".

Too bad you don't actually speak for everyone here.

Then again, those condoning war crimes, fraud, injustice and environmental destruction do tend to think their rationalizations make sense.

Of course, "electable" may just end up being the worst rationalization of the bunch.
Hillary is struggling against the worst candidate ever.

I hadn't tried the poll closing option, but you're right, Clinton tends to nail it down late in the evening. CA is a big honkingv55 EV matzoh ball!

Now that the race is tightening, I need to run my own model again, which doesn't assume that the states behave independently of each other. I'm not sure which candidate will favored by state herding behavior this year, or if the impact is even noticeable in all the other noise.

It is a pleasure to be of service!

http://chasbrown.com/cwWeedBlocker/CWTrollBlocker.user.js

then (assuming the net nanny doesn't block) you should either be taken to a tampermonkey page that lets you install it; or else you can can download the script to a local file and install it from there.

The coding language is plain-old javascript; and what tampermonkey does is to jump in and add some additional javascript when pages are loaded from certain specific domains (in this case, chrisweigant.com).

Let me test posting this...

Did you see #71?

Easy first step, TamperMonkey is available from Firefox as an extesion!

But- I have no Earthly idea of what the scripting language is: that's not the sort of coding I do. Syntax challenged!

Could you perhaps publish something that could be cut and pasted into the part of the add script template?

Mmmm... tampermonkey chops... with bacon! (It's dinnertime here... :) )

Really? Let me know when you find an electable candidate that suits your obviously exacting standards. Until then, we'd all like you to set "perfect" aside, and concentrate on "not Trump". Thank you.

... this post is a bit like flogging...

As in a little, not bitten.

A

God bless you! I''m off to find a Tampermonkey and some chops while I'm at it!
Christmas before Halloween this year!

Given that people trust the media only slightly more than Congress... hardly at all... this post is bit like flogging a comatose horse.

The lead article over on HuffPo today was interesting.
Apparently someone there thinks Hillary is progressive (although quite a few topics including energy and foreign policy were completely ignored despite having space for a Katy Perry mention).

You know, the Wall Street coddling, warmongering, drill baby drill, Israel first type of "progressive" just like Obama, but maybe not quite... that quite a few weren't buying if you have time to read the comments. The author also seemed to be a bit delusional on other issues like Republicans in Congress working with her.

Of course, this propaganda wouldn't be necessary if it were self evident from her history, but whatever.

Hard to believe that with a Bush and all the neocons endorsing Hillary, the "liberal" media can't seem to be bothered to even raise one eyebrow... the list of reasons for the Left to be skeptical just keeps growing.

I saw a mention of "Donald ducking" a few months back during the clown car primaries... though I'm not sure it was an intentional reference... but I don't think it will catch on because people like Donald Duck.

Someone at another site was using Don Jaundice... that's a bit problematic for other reasons, but it's another one of those things you'd have expected to hear sooner.

A

You honor me, sir! :) Actually you gave me the idea a while back in some random comment...

It's comparable to AdBlock. You do have to install it, which is a bit effortful; but once it's there, it saves mental energy! Your mileage may vary of course.

I'll give CW $50 in your name at the end of the year for this - how about that?

I fear invoking the net nanny :), but if you look at the page source, you'll see that it references a javascript file named CWTrollBlocker.user + dot + jay + ess; (is that too obscure? Hope not!)

So if you go to that example URL I gave, but instead of 'cwExample.html' you type in the possibly net nanny forbidden file name above, I think your tampermonkey plug-in will do the rest...

Glad you like it! I'd be happy to add a more complete installation page for regular contributors who may not be familiar with tampermonkey scripts. It really does a big improvement to my experience here.

And you can still tilt at Michale's windmills to your hearts content!

Guy

Got it.

Do you have the source for the script?

Guy, I know where you are coming from and I feel your frustration, trust me! There have been countless times where I think that I can easily show Michale the folly of a statement he has made, but that belief is based on the assumption that we are all rational thinkers interested in a real debate. And every time I have attempted to do this, I just wind up being more frustrated. Here are a few things that I have learned from my short time here:

1. When Michale begins a rant with "No one here has the moral authority to....", it means that he knows the message is true and he cannot deny it, so he has to attack the messenger.

2. Michale is the only person who deserves an apology here ( 99% of the time)...according to Michale. I say "99% of the time" because Michale has saved those rare past occasions where he has apologized for/admitted to being wrong about something so that he is able to defend against accusations that he "never" apologizes for/admits to being wrong and then demands that you admit that you were wrong.

3. Take neilm's advice in [60] to heart. It's a good group of folks who offer a wide range of input on the subjects at hand. Michale has raised good points, they just often get overlooked because of the manner in which he chooses to address those he is making them to.

Russ

Controls are right under the "XX comments on " at the start of the Comments section.

You can choose from a menu of 'Expanded' (all comments are shown) 'Collapsed' (you can individually expand or collapse a comment) or "Hidden" (sets display to 'none' for the comments; maintains original numbering of other comments).

You'll pardon me if I don't hold my breath waiting for your "Trump rant"...

Appreciated.

It's tough being exposed to other viewpoints...

It's always better to live in your "safe space" free from micro aggressions...

Seems to me to be kinda a boring life, but hay.. I guess some people like that.. :^/

Michale

Chas,

Apparently, yer little script didn't work so well in our last exchange...

But, by all means.. Continue to try... :D

Michale

I use a tampermonkey script in Chrome (should also work for other browsers) to collapse Michale's comments by default; this makes the whole site 100% more pleasant. And I can still browse Michale's contributions when I wish.

Example (static) page, from CW's 'Turd Tornado' post:

http://chasbrown.com/cwWeedBlocker/cwExample.html

If you have the chops, you can inspect the page source and grab the tampermonkey script from there.

Cheers - Chas

I wonder if you can appreciate how insulting you are being to our host....

But, by all means.. Continue to ignore my posts.. :D

heh

Michale

Just skim past it all the same way you fast forward thru commercials with your DVR.

I recommend it to all readers. You aren't missing anything and the quality of the other posts is high.

For example Paula had a great series a while ago of street interviews, and there are many useful links.

The analogy to paid commercials is more apt than you'd think as Michale has claimed he gets a free pass form CW because he pays a lot at the end of the year.

Another picture with Hillary's cock-eyed eyes....

That is simply not normal...

Michale

Yer kidding, right? I know more about Hillary's health than I know about my own. I don't need video. Meanwhile, all that we have of Trump are a few pages, one of which reads like it was written by Trump himself.

But do you see how so utterly bias you are..

You are perfectly ready to accept that Trump is hiding something..

But when Hillary does the EXACT same thing, you REFUSE to accept that she also is hiding something..

I have the integrity to call BOTH candidates on their actions and obfuscations..

But you only call Trump on his actions and give Hillary a pass..

That is what happens when you are totally ensnared by Party dogma...

Michale

Just a hint.. When you start a comment with childish name-calling and immature personal attacks, it's hard to take you seriously with anything you say...

Just FYI...

Michale, Hillary's health has nothing to do with financial disclosures. Neither do her speech transcripts.

Yet, when asked about Hillary releasing her health records, ya'all go on and on about Trump's tax returns..

I completely agree with you. The two are NOT equated..

But it's ya'all that is equating them, not me..

More importantly, why can't you answer a question about trump with something besides an accusation at Hillary?

Because the questions ya'all ask are not legitimate questions..

Just answer the questions that are posed.

Ya mean like ya'all refuse to do???

Once again leaving for months because I just can't handle this guy.

Yea, I get that a lot.. :D Well, Weigantia is not a place for the faint of heart and the wussified.. :D

Michale....

It's EXACTLY the stone silence on the subject of the looters, thugs and scumbags that I implied in my many posts...

Michale

Yea, the handling of the terrorist attacks in New York..

But she DOESN'T condemn the scumbags and thugs who are tearing Charlotte apart..

She DOES condemn the police for the shootings, even though the Charlotte and the Oklahoma shootings were good shoots..

Like I said, Hillary has the back of scumbags, looters, cop killers and thugs..

Trump has the back of LEOs...

Michale

https://www.c-span.org/video/?415668-1/hillary-clinton-campaigns-orlando-florida

At 4:40 She mentions the targeting of police, and goes on to effusively praise the police's handling of several incidents, finishing with "We are safer when communities respect the police and police respect communities".

Not the "Gun 'em down" statement you were looking for, but not either the stone silence you've implied in your many posts.

Where were you then??

Oh yea, yer nose was so far up HilRod's ass....

Michale

Only YOU could think that questions from Zach Galfinkus would be "tough" questions.. :^/

Michale

Michale, Hillary's health has nothing to do with financial disclosures. Neither do her speech transcripts.

On every single disclosure front, Hillary has revealed far more data than Trump.

More importantly, why can't you answer a question about trump with something besides an accusation at Hillary?

Just answer the questions that are posed.

Once again leaving for months because I just can't handle this guy.

Unlike Trump, HilRod is not dodging tough questions.

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/b2fc974d1d/between-two-ferns-with-zach-galifianakis-hillary-clinton?_cc=__d___&_ccid=3e7c85a3-488d-446a-a8b4-43a10717ceb0

I found that quote from Hillary..

"We Have Two Names To Add To The Long List Of African Americans Killed By Police."
-Hillary Clinton

The fact that both shootings were completely and unequivocally justifiable doesn't seem to matter to Hillary....

So, what have we learned??

Donald Trump has the back of LEOs across the country...

Hillary Clinton has the backs of scumbags, cop killers, looters and thugs.....

That about sums it up...

Michale

Link???

Just in case ya missed it the first time.. :D

Michale

No one on the Left is condemning the looters.. According to the Left they have "legitimate complaints"....

That's bull.. They DON'T have legitimate complaints..

And even if they did, addressing those complaints by violence and looting and destruction??

Negates *ANY* legitimacy they might have had...

Michale

No, they don't.... This was a good shoot... through and through...

Michale

They're looters.. Lowest of the low of scumbags....

Michale

Charlotte violence sparks self defense gun buying spree
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/charlotte-violence-sparks-self-defense-gun-buying-spree/article/2602559

Like the old saying goes, I would rather have a gun in my hand, then a cop on the phone...

Michale

Link???

Michale

She actually did condemn the violence, if you've been following her remarks. I'd say Trump already has the "shoot 'em, don't book 'em" vote wrapped up.

Start shooting some of the looters and scumbags...

Word will get around...

Michale

I don't care WHAT your Party persuasion is..

THAT is not normal... THAT is a sign of a serious neurological disorder..

Michale

It comes out of the base of the brain and runs along the floor of the skull, immediately beneath the brain before coursing upward to the eye. Dysfunction of that muscle causes the striking picture of the eyes not aiming in the same direction and causes the patient to suffer double vision.
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/healthcare/297208-clintons-eyes-a-window-into-her-health-issues

Hillary has some serious serious health issues....

Michale

Michale

Michale

She won't release ANY neurological records or tests..

She won't TAKE a neuro-cognitive test..

Trump hasn't collapsed or given ANYONE ANY reason to suspect his health..

Hillary cannot make the same claim.

However, Trump has promised full disclosure of his complete medical history if Hillary does the same...

Keep the lifeboat ready, ye matey, there be bad weather a-brewin'...

Yea, ya'all have been saying that for a year... Yet Trump is winning... :D

Michale

Interesting. If you run that map based on poll-closing times, it always gives Trump a lead for what would be most of the night. Because so many of her votes are on the West Coast, Hillary only passes Trump in most simulations when the last batch from California comes in!

No Shirt Sherlock! The seals are leaking on his 'secrets' bottle, and there's already enough in the public domain to get him locked up for fraud, tax evasion, and conspiracy after this election is over. It may turn out to be a complete surprise to him, but people look REALLY closely at your affairs when you run for president. Hillary has the advantage here that she has already been rectally examined, politically speaking.

Just like there is something in Hillary's full health records that SHE doesn't want known because it would likely prove negative to her campaign.

Yer kidding, right? I know more about Hillary's health than I know about my own. I don't need video. Meanwhile, all that we have of Trump are a few pages, one of which reads like it was written by Trump himself.

This was always the White Whale of the right: the Clinton scandal that would finally bring them down. But it never happened, despite the constant stream of invective and innuendo that's been hurled at them for thirty years.

In this context, I understand completely why the GOP base went with Trump. They needed an Ahab, a Goliath, an unrestrained beast who could go toe-to-toe with their Moby Dick. Only Trump had the celebrity, the fire and the vitriol to do the job. It's such a close fit that I have my suspicions that Roger Ailes might have had a hand in this campaign from the start.

Unfortunately (for them), their Whaler is riddled with leaks, and they're popping up now with regularity: the $20,000 painting of Trump, the Million Dollar Hole-In-One, the cash payment to Bondi, all made through a legally chartered charitable foundation.

Keep the lifeboat ready, ye matey, there be bad weather a-brewin'...

Michale

There is police dash cam footage that shows the Subject with a gun in his hand prior to being shot..

I don't care WHAT color you are... If you are told by police to freeze and drop your gun and you refuse...

YOU WILL BE SHOT.....

It's that simple...

This is simply another case of black people using the shooting as an excuse to pillage, loot and destroy...

Michale

Then it's not really applicable, is it??

All it is is mental masturbation for the Left or Right Wingery to pretend their candidate is crushing it...

In case you have forgotten, this is a REALITY based political forum... Not Fantasy Football....

Michale

http://www.270towin.com/2016-simulation/

The model assumes all the states behave independently, which they don't, but it might be a good approximation this year, given the very small number of really competitive races with enough votes to put a heavy thumb on the ol' EV scales.

'Nother limitation, no third parties!

Unlike many of the 270 2 Win maps, you can't customize the states to suit your own prognosis. Too bad that.

OK, since we're getting away from the health issue, why won't Hillary release her speech transcripts???

We could go back and forth on this all day, but I have already addressed..

There is something in those records that Trump doesn't want known because it would likely prove negative to his campaign..

Just like there is something in Hillary's full health records that SHE doesn't want known because it would likely prove negative to her campaign..

I can easily concede this about Trump.. Can you concede it about Hillary???

[25] Please expand on "lack of viable response".

The explanation is self-evident.. Here we have a Good Shoot and, as usual, scumbags use this event to get some early christmas shopping done...

The fact that it is still occurring indicates there has been no viable response...

The fact that Hillary condemns the cops but not the scumbag looters and rioters indicates there has been no viable response...

Michale

[25] Please expand on "lack of viable response".

Nothing says ONLY BLACK LIVES MATTER like trying to throw a photographer into a bonfire.... :^/

Michale

This race is shaping up more and more like it's Trump's to lose...

Michale

WHITE MAN DRAGGED, BEATEN BEGGING FOR MERCY
https://twitter.com/LibertarianQn/status/778845840496594944

I can see why you wouldn't want to... :^/

But, by all means...

Let's talk about some golf contest..

THAT is just SOOOOO much more important.. :^/

Michale

Maybe we can talk about Charlotte...

Michale

Yea, I will definitely be in the mood for some monday night debate live blogging.. :D

Michale

I assume you mean I *DON"T* know enough about you, yada yada yada yada..

And that's true, I don't...

I was speaking generally about the people who ARE commenting about Donald's alleged ducking of the press...

If you are not commenting about it, then what I said doesn't really apply to you, nest'pa??

Michale

I need a distraction.

Probably not.. I had to come home early from work yesterday with some kind of stomach bug. Spent all last night puking into the toilet and trying (and failing) to get a modicum of sleep...

I have to get my lovely wife off....... to work :D (even at Death's door, I am still a funny guy!! :D heh) and then I am going back to bed..

Rain check??

Michale