Comments on: 2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary's Shrinking Lead

By: 2016 Electoral Math - Hillary Begins Her Debate Bounce - Democratsnewz

2016 Electoral Math - Hillary Begins Her Debate Bounce - Democratsnewz — Tue, 04 Oct 2016 03:27:20 +0000

[...] is a significantly better-looking chart than last time around, for Clinton. Last time the percentage split of EV was 51 percent Clinton, 48 percent Trump (with [...]

By: 2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary Begins Her Debate Bounce | Huffington Post

2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary Begins Her Debate Bounce | Huffington Post — Tue, 04 Oct 2016 03:15:16 +0000

[...] of theses images to see larger-scale versions.] This is a significantly better-looking chart than last time around, for Clinton. Last time the percentage split of EV was 51 percent Clinton, 48 percent Trump (with [...]

By: Fedora Nate Studios | 2016 Electoral Math — Hillary Begins Her Debate Bounce

Tue, 04 Oct 2016 02:40:35 +0000

[...] is a significantly better-looking chart than last time around, for Clinton. Last time the percentage split of EV was 51 percent Clinton, 48 percent Trump (with [...]

By: ChrisWeigant.com » 2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary Begins Her Debate Bounce

ChrisWeigant.com » 2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary Begins Her Debate Bounce — Tue, 04 Oct 2016 02:01:04 +0000

[...] is a significantly better-looking chart than last time around, for Clinton. Last time the percentage split of EV was 51 percent Clinton, 48 percent Trump (with [...]

By: Michale

Michale — Wed, 21 Sep 2016 09:07:40 +0000

On the high, crenelated ramparts of Castle Clinton, a chill breeze is stirring ? a faint but gnawing sense that the White Walkers are coming, wearing “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN” baseball caps on their skinless noggins.

If Donald Trump does sack the fortress, no one who lost the battle will want to admit it was Hillary Clinton’s fault. It will have had nothing to do with, say, “transparency” or calling bearded villagers “deplorables” or the Iraq War vote or the simple fact that middle-of-the-road Clintonism ran out of gas as a public philosophy.

No, other individuals, groups and forces will have to be blamed. In fact, they already are, pre-emptively. If Trump wins, we’re all going to be too busy moving to Canada to read the postmortems (or write them), so we offer them to you now:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/why-hillary-clinton-lost_us_57dc4bece4b04a1497b491b6?section=&

Yep...

Hillary is as pure as the driven snow. According to the Left Wingery, NOTHING is her fault...

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Wed, 21 Sep 2016 08:34:06 +0000

I'd say that, of the two of them, he's more likely to skip at least one of the several planned debates.

Your problem is you have NOTHING to base that on, except for Party loyalty.

Whereas I have a multitude of FACTS that indicate Hillary might not make the debates..

Michale

By: Balthasar

Balthasar — Wed, 21 Sep 2016 02:59:03 +0000

It's becoming more and more likely that she won't even MAKE it to the debates... I'd say that, of the two of them, he's more likely to skip at least one of the several planned debates. What do you think the odds are?

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 23:53:10 +0000

Trouble with that argument is that it sets the bar pretty low - all she has to do is look good all the way through the debate, and your 'concern' about her health dissipates like a Trump promise. It's becoming more and more likely that she won't even MAKE it to the debates... She definitely has neurological distress as evidenced by the cock-eyed eyes... You just can't admit the facts... Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 23:51:59 +0000

And we have no idea of his actual physical or financial health.

Has he collapsed?? Has he cancelled WEEKs of appearances???

So, yes.. We have a pretty good idea of his health..

He is also in imminent danger of being indicted for any number of frauds and cons.

Yea.. Ya'all have been saying that for over a year now...

:^/

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 23:50:29 +0000

With Trump Regaining North Carolina Lead, Hillary Unexpectedly Postpones Local Fundraiser "Without Reason"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-20/trump-regaining-north-carolina-lead-hillary-unexpectedly-postpones-local-fundraiser-

The reason is clear..

Hillary simply cannot go the distance...

Michale

By: Balthasar

Balthasar — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 23:33:32 +0000

Is that the face of someone who is in "perfect health" Trouble with that argument is that it sets the bar pretty low - all she has to do is look good all the way through the debate, and your 'concern' about her health dissipates like a Trump promise. And we have no idea of his actual physical or financial health. He is also in imminent danger of being indicted for any number of frauds and cons.

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 22:35:48 +0000

If ya'all are honest with yourselves, you have to ask yourself one question..

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cs0KPsxUkAAhp4-.jpg

Is that the face of someone who is in "perfect health"...

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 22:17:26 +0000

It's also relevant to the EC vote that Hillary's support from hispanics and blacks is faltering greatly...

Without the minority vote and the youth vote, Hillary doesn't stand a chance...

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 18:01:17 +0000

https://youtu.be/x72oBpk9WPI

Watch Hillary's eyes during the speech...

They are all over the place independent of one another...

This woman has some MAJOR health issues...

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 17:59:23 +0000

Yea... That's what I thought....

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 17:20:17 +0000

We need responsible gun ownership!

"responsible" as defined by the Hysterical Left..

Meaning NO GUNS for citizens at all...

But hay.. I am MORE than happy to give ya'all yer gun ban...

Obama's Security detail, Hillary's Security detail and EVERY Security detail for EVERY Democrat must disarm first...

THEN, you'll get your gun ban..

What can be more fair then that???

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 17:11:18 +0000

Then we need to look at weapons manufacturer liability laws.

Next, you can go after car manufactures when their cars are used to kill millions..

Then go after knife manufactures when their knives are used to kill and maim...

I wish ya'all could take a step outside yourselves and see how utterly ridiculous ya'all sound to Joe and Jane Sixpack... :D

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 17:09:38 +0000

Simple math tells us that if you live in a town with more than 115 people, there is a 50% chance that at least 1 has mental problems and a large arsenal.

Yea, right.. PROVE it..

You can't because it's complete bullshit..

To anti-gun fanatics, a cap gun and 3 rolls of caps constitute a "large arsenal"...

Ya'all are NOT going to get your gun ban...

Give it up...

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 17:07:58 +0000

Universal Background Checking is the most likely to become law nationwide It already IS law.... followed by 'clarification' of the Heller decision by the next Supreme Court, What kind of "clarification" are you hoping for?? and stricter controls on automatic There already IS a strict control on automatic weapons that CAN'T be made any stricter.. You see my point?? The anti-gun fanatics have gotten all they are going to get... Michale

By: neilm

neilm — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 17:03:28 +0000

If the incidence of mental illness in the 3% of the arsenal owners of America is the same as the general population (statistically very likely) then about is 1.4 million people are mentally ill and armed to the teeth.

Simple math tells us that if you live in a town with more than 115 people, there is a 50% chance that at least 1 has mental problems and a large arsenal.

If you live in a town with 1,000 residents, the chances of having at least one person who is mentally ill and armed to the teeth is 399/400 = 99.8%, and the median number (if my stats are right) is probably 6.

This is not intended to stigmatize mental illness, or gun ownership, just the intersection of the two (let's see if the permanently indignant can parse that).

We need responsible gun ownership!

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 16:57:33 +0000

there can and will be exceptions to the 2nd.

Yer partially right..

There can and HAVE been exceptions to the 2nd..

And all the exceptions that are logical and rational exceptions HAVE been put into play...

There are no more exceptions that are in keeping with the 2nd Amendment..

The anti-gun weenies have shot their wad....

Michale

By: Balthasar

Balthasar — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 16:42:15 +0000

As long as the 2nd Amendment is in play, your gun-free utopia will never come to be. Good try, but nobody is suggesting that the 2nd Amendment won't stay right where it is. But just as there are exceptions to the 1st Amendment (can't yell 'fire' in a crowded theater) and the 4th Amendment (legal wiretaps) and the 5th Amendment (breathalyzer tests), there can and will be exceptions to the 2nd. Universal Background Checking is the most likely to become law nationwide, followed by 'clarification' of the Heller decision by the next Supreme Court, and stricter controls on automatic and semi-automatic weapons ownership. Then we need to look at weapons manufacturer liability laws.

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 16:26:37 +0000

Give it up, son..

As long as the 2nd Amendment is in play, your gun-free utopia will never come to be...

Michale

By: neilm

neilm — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 16:12:42 +0000

New study shows that 3% of Americans own 50% of the guns in circulation. We need a study to determine if the incidence of mental illness in the 3% is the same, higher or lower than the general public. Seriously, this is exactly why the Gun industry doesn't want the CDC to investigate gun deaths the same way they investigate other causes of death.

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 16:02:11 +0000

The Washington Post is really diving into the Trump paper trail. Not only is he involved in two corruption investigations (Bondi and Hevesi) but his use of his "charity" to pay off lawsuits and commission portraits of himself are likely to make his audit a lot more interesting (if there wasn't an audit, and as usual he was lying, there will probably be one now). Keep dreaming, sunshine.. We're less than 50 days from election.. Do you HONESTLY believe anything will come of your fantasies?? :D When you advocate Hillary releasing her full medical records including MRIs then you'll have a non-partisan leg to stand on.. But you and I both know that you won't.... So you won't... :D Michale

By: neilm

neilm — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 15:57:19 +0000

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 15:05:47 +0000

If we apply the "skittles" argument to refugees (sick comparison by the way), can't we use the same reasoning for guns and Americans.

If I told you that 43.5 million Americans* suffered from mental illness annually, i.e. 1 in 5, would you allow them all to buy guns?

As usual, your analogy is completely biased and one sided...

Much like you are... :D

Here is a more legitimate analogy. This assumes your 1 in 5 stat is NOT the bullshit it likely is...

If I told you that 1 in 5 Americans who buy a gun are mentally ill but that 3 out of 5 Americans will likely save their life or the lives of others with their gun...

Would you allow them all to buy guns???

But, by all means.. Let's prevent the mentally ill from buying guns..

All you have to do is convince the Democrat Party to quit arguing against disclosure laws in a bid to protect personal privacy...

Michale

By: neilm

neilm — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 14:48:24 +0000

If we apply the "skittles" argument to refugees (sick comparison by the way), can't we use the same reasoning for guns and Americans.

If I told you that 43.5 million Americans* suffered from mental illness annually, i.e. 1 in 5, would you allow them all to buy guns?

* http://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/NSDUH-DetTabs-2015/NSDUH-DetTabs-2015/NSDUH-DetTabs-2015.htm#tab8-1a

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 14:13:53 +0000

But if you WANT to compare to the 2012 election....

Trump is doing better with Hispanics than you think

Donald Trump is performing about as well with Hispanic voters as GOP nominee Mitt Romney did in 2012, according to opinion polls — something that unsettles Democrats and surprises even some Republicans.

Skeptics had suggested that Trump would suffer a blowout among Hispanics, given that his rhetoric, on illegal immigration in particular, has been controversial.

Trump’s promise to build a wall on the southern U.S. border and force Mexico to pay for it is perhaps the best known of his campaign pledges. And at his campaign launch in June 2015, he said people coming into the country illegally were “rapists.”

But as of right now, there is not much evidence to suggest that Trump is faring any worse among Hispanics than did Romney, who at one point argued that illegal immigrants in the United States could be persuaded to “self-deport.”
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/296747-trump-is-doing-better-with-hispanics-than-you-think

The hispanic anger vote is just NOT materializing.. :D

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 13:45:07 +0000

Clinton is down over the last month (and a bit more) but I give Clinton roughly 70% odds of winning the White House.

EXACTLY what I am talking about...

She is in a better position than Obama was at the same date in 2012.

And if Clinton were even a TENTH of the candidate that Obama was, then you might have a point..

But she's not, so you don't...

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 13:43:32 +0000

Liz,

I know that you had asked me to stop with the partisan slavery, etc etc and I want you to know that I am really trying..

But honestly.. What else explains the complete and utter disregard of the facts when Hillary supporters claim "still an easy win for Hillary...."

There is simply not other logical and rational explanation for such gross disregard for the facts and reality other than fanatical, blind and slavish devotion to Party...

I am completely open to another possible rational and logical explanation...

But I just don't see one...

Michale

By: TheStig

TheStig — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 13:31:58 +0000

I see a lot less prognosticator "herding" in some important states: notably Florida and Ohio. Florida seems pretty close to a 50:50 call, but Ohio is currently leaning fairly strongly towards a Trump win: 60% averaged among the five quantitative calls over at The NYT Upshot. Using the Electoral Math scheme, I color Ohio as light pink, and it may well get a darker red moving forward.

By the same reasoning, Colorado doesn't deserve to be a neutral tan, all five of the Upshot probabilities favor Clinton and the average Clinton probability of a win is a fairly strong 77%. I give it at least a light blue.

Overall, Clinton seems to have 270 electoral votes among states in which she has at least a 70% chance of winning, as averaged among the five Upshot quantitative predictions.

Clinton is down over the last month (and a bit more) but I give Clinton roughly 70% odds of winning the White House. Down, but it is still her race to lose. She is in a better position than Obama was at the same date in 2012.

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 13:07:07 +0000

Hillary could keel over from a stroke and there will be those Weigantians who say, "It's a faux-scandal.. It's still an easy win for Hillary.." :D Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 13:00:04 +0000

Still an easy win for Hillary.

Despite ALL the *facts* to the contrary.. :D

Such blind devotion is inspiring.... I guess.. :^/

Michale

By: neilm

neilm — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 12:40:04 +0000

Still an easy win for Hillary. She really needs a landslide however otherwise the clowns will give us another Trump in 2020.

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 10:52:44 +0000

Interesting anecdote...

More Americans (14%) believe that Bigfoot is real than they believe that Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy(11%)....

Kinda puts it all in perspective..

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 08:47:08 +0000

Why yes... Yes it is.. :D

But getting Weigantians to admit that is harder than pulling teeth.... :D

In all fairness to my fellow Weigantians, I don't make it easy for them to agree with me.. :D

Granted, that's not a worthy excuse, but it does make such reluctance to acknowledge the facts at least understandable.

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 08:06:31 +0000

Now, I wouldn't say it's quite time to panic for Democrats -- but that time may be just around the corner, unless Clinton can turn things around fairly quickly. Nate Silver said that if the polls are this bad or worse by this coming Friday, it's time for Democrats to panic.. :D Personally, I think (and dsws agrees :D ) that Democrats are there already... But I certainly won't fault ya'all for holding onto some shred of hope... :D The first presidential debate will happen one week from today, so such a turnaround is indeed possible in the near future. Possible?? Yes.. With the current hullabaloo over terrorism and Hillary Clinton's health?? Doubtful The shift from two weeks ago is dramatic. Back then, Hillary had 312 EV, to Trump's 197 EV. She has now dropped to 274 EV, while he rose to 258 EV. The trend is even more dramatic if you go back four weeks. One month ago, Hillary Clinton had 358 EV -- a full 84 EV more than she's got now. Four weeks ago, Trump was at 180 EV, which was 78 EV lower than he's at now. That's a pretty substantial turnaround. Why yes... Yes it is.. :D But getting Weigantians to admit that is harder than pulling teeth.... :D If it shrinks any further, the entire race might be a lot closer than anyone would have thought (myself included) even one month ago. Ahem.... :D There are two reasons why Democrats should panic.. 1. That trend line you mentioned.. It's all going Trump's way... 2. Hillary Clinton has once again ceded the FEBA to Trump... Last time she did this, Trump took full advantage of her absence and used it to his MASSIVE benefit... The terrorist attacks and the Left Wingers (DeBlasio & Obama) limp-dicked response to it is also helping Trump and hurting Hillary immeasurably... Here's my predictions... If the wave of terrorist attacks continue, Trump will be our next President.. If Hillary collapses at a debate, Trump will be our next President.. If neither of those things happen, I still think Trump will win, but I am less sure of it... Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 07:54:05 +0000

The moment I have been waiting for!! :D

It's funny.. When it's all rainbows and unicorns for Hillary Clinton, there would have been a couple dozen comments already.... :D

Michale