Comments on: 2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary Slides Back

By: 2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary's Shrinking Lead | Huffington Post

2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary's Shrinking Lead | Huffington Post — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 02:25:16 +0000

[...] In fact, it has been shrinking for a solid month now. Two weeks ago (the last time I wrote one of these columns), this hadn't really benefited Donald Trump much. Now, however, Trump seems to be surging in the [...]

By: 2016 Electoral Math — Hillary’s Shrinking Lead | SafetyFist.com

2016 Electoral Math — Hillary’s Shrinking Lead | SafetyFist.com — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 02:22:06 +0000

[...] In fact, it has been shrinking for a solid month now. Two weeks ago (the last time I wrote one of these columns), this hadn’t really benefited Donald Trump much. Now, however, Trump seems to be surging in [...]

By: 2016 Electoral Math — Hillary's Shrinking Lead | KJOZ RADIO CALL IN TOLL FREE (281) 447-1114

Tue, 20 Sep 2016 02:01:22 +0000

By: 2016 Electoral Math - Hillary's Shrinking Lead - Democratsnewz

2016 Electoral Math - Hillary's Shrinking Lead - Democratsnewz — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 01:48:33 +0000

By: ChrisWeigant.com » 2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary's Shrinking Lead

ChrisWeigant.com » 2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary's Shrinking Lead — Tue, 20 Sep 2016 01:06:46 +0000

By: Michale

Michale — Thu, 08 Sep 2016 10:01:51 +0000

Some of this is for a quirky reason: Trump is underperforming recent Republican nominees in polls of deeply red states.

Which PROVES that Trump's support is not ideological..

Y'all can't make the same claim about Hillary..

Hillary's support *IS* completely ideological...

And THAT is why the support is suspect...

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Thu, 08 Sep 2016 09:53:10 +0000

Or, more accurately, yes we do, but you refuse to admit that you're, indeed, the pot....

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Thu, 08 Sep 2016 08:57:03 +0000

Apparently, we seem to have a pot/kettle situation here.

No we don't..

Because I *ADMIT* that it is exactly what I am doing..

Ya'all deny it...

THAT'S the difference that makes all the difference..

Michale

By: Elizabeth Miller

Elizabeth Miller — Wed, 07 Sep 2016 22:57:11 +0000

It's more like a pot/pot situation. Ahem. :)

By: Balthasar

Balthasar — Wed, 07 Sep 2016 22:25:55 +0000

From the same article: Trump’s chances are currently about 30 percent in betting markets, a close match for FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts. And the rest of the paragraph that finishes the quote you posted reads: Some of this is for a quirky reason: Trump is underperforming recent Republican nominees in polls of deeply red states. Last week, for instance, there were new polls of Kansas and Alaska that showed Trump winning by 7 points and 10 points, respectively. By comparison, Mitt Romney won Kansas by 22 points and Alaska by 14. Michale wrote: Ya'all's "current" data is only cheery picked crap that says what you want to hear, yet you ignore the FACTS that don't follow your ideological partisan agenda... Apparently, we seem to have a pot/kettle situation here.

By: Michale

Michale — Wed, 07 Sep 2016 09:41:14 +0000

Our models, somewhat in contrast to the conventional wisdom, have usually found that Trump is more likely to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote than the other way around.
-Nate Silver, http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-keeps-shrinking/

Is THIS the "current data" you are referring to, Balthasar???

You see what I mean??

Ya'all's "current" data is only cheery picked crap that says what you want to hear, yet you ignore the FACTS that don't follow your ideological partisan agenda...

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 20:48:22 +0000

Floor Wiping 101...

Class dismissed... :D

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 20:47:35 +0000

"Kahn.... I am LAUGHING at the 'superior intellect'.."
-Admiral James T Kirk

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 20:44:57 +0000

That isn't conjecture, it's fact, basic on current available data. So was Trump losing the GOP nomination... So was Brexit failing..... So was Clinton's "perfect health"... Yet, your "current available data" was proven WRONG time and time and time again.... What you call "current available data" is simply ignoring what ya'all don't want to believe and wishcasting what you DO want to believe... Ya'all have been WRONG time and time and time and time again.... WHY do you think you are going to be right this time??? Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 20:42:37 +0000

Ya'all laid out ALL the "facts" that "proved" that Trump wouldn't be the GOP nominee.. Ya'all were **WRONG** Ya'all laid out ALL the "facts" that "proved" Brexit would fail.. Ya'all were **WRONG** Ya'all laid out ALL the "facts" that "proved" Clinton was in "perfect health"... Ya'all were **WRONG** But ya'all are going to be RIGHT this time, eh?? :D You can understand why I am laughing my ass off, right??? :D Michale...

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 20:37:58 +0000

Back off, straw man. Do I REALLY have to quote the DOZENS and DOZENS of times ya'all said Trump was "toast", that Trump's campaign was "imploding" and that he was "finished"?? Ya'all have called it WRONG at EACH and EVERY juncture.. NOW you want to re-write recent history and deny ya'all made the claims.. Ya'all were WRONG time and time again.. Man up and admit it.. Michale

By: Balthasar

Balthasar — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 19:00:57 +0000

damn. ..based on current available data.

By: Balthasar

Balthasar — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 18:45:53 +0000

But.... But.... But..... TRUMP IS TOAST!!!! His campaign imploded!!!! He can't win!!!! Sound familiar, people? Back off, straw man. The official position in this forum is CW's: Clinton will win the presidency if she wins any one of the seven [battleground] states with 10 or more EV.. Donald Trump, on the other hand has to win nine out of ten of the battlegrounds to have any path to victory whatsoever. That isn't conjecture, it's fact, basic on current available data. That data could change - the media wants a close race (better for ratings) and will probably put its thumb on the scale to try to assure one, for one thing. For another thing, the American people have been remarkably evenly divided politically, and if the center decides that this is a team event, Trump could surge and use the mad trumpeteers that he's brought into the process as booster jets. So far that doesn't seem likely. White college educated women are deciding in greater numbers that they don't like him, and black and Latino registrations are surging. Meanwhile, Trump's various attempts at 'pivoting' and 'softening' are laughable, and when the movie is made of this, this will be the point when the Kellyanne Conway character begins to show exasperation. Meanwhile the meetings between Ailes and Trump and Bannon and Bossie at the Golf course in New Jersey continue. I imagine Bannon wants to use the best of Bossie's stuff in ads, and that Ailes is helping to decide how best to present it. And they're all telling Trump to keep it under his comb-over until the ads roll out in about three weeks. Kellyanne is probably telling them to be careful not to attack Clinton herself (women won't like that), but rather to imply that she has a pattern of covering up the mistakes of others. Then they order another round of drinks (diet coke for Trump, scotch for Bannon, Bossie & Ailes, Iced tea for Kellyanne..).

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 14:36:44 +0000

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll.

Trump tops Clinton 45% to 43% in the new survey, with Libertarian Gary Johnson standing at 7% among likely voters in this poll and the Green Party's Jill Stein at just 2%.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/index.html

But.... But.... But..... TRUMP IS TOAST!!!!

His campaign imploded!!!!

He can't win!!!!

Sound familiar, people?? :D

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 08:55:45 +0000

As Nate Silver puts it - Clinton is regressing towards the pre convention mean. That said she is not even close to crossing the line.

But... But... But... TRUMP is toast!!!! Ya'all SAID it!!!!

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 08:54:45 +0000

CW,

Let's start with the big picture. You'll note that while Clinton's total has gone down, Donald Trump's hasn't really improved that much.

Hmmmmmmm

According to your graphic, there is a little sliver of red that shows a marked increase for Trump...

Is that a graphic-o or am I reading it wrong??

Clinton outright lost Iowa and Arizona during this period to Trump.

Why yes... Yes she did... :D

Awesome commentary, CW... As usual... :D

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 08:46:53 +0000

She could then lose FL, IA and even OH and still be in decent shape (PA and VA seem pretty solid to me at this point).

But.... But.... But.... Ya'all said that Clinton was going to sweep all 50 STATES!!!!!

LET THE BACK-PEDALING BEGIN!!

heh :D

Michale

By: Michale

Michale — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 08:44:39 +0000

In contrast to last time around, the past two weeks have been mostly bad news for Hillary Clinton. Not terrible news, but certainly not good, as she's seen several states weaken considerably and has lost two over to the Trump column, at least for now.

WHO could have POSSIBLY predicted this!!???

Oh... Wait.. :D

It's only downhill for Clinton.. Her health scares, her conceding the battlefield to Trump, etc etc.. It's all going to take it's toll...

Michale

By: chaszzzbrown

chaszzzbrown — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 01:44:25 +0000

If I'm Clinton/DNC, I'd be highly motivated to campaign in NC and Nevada - two close Senate races where coat-tails could make a real difference to the policy outcomes over the next 4 years. Due to their demographics, they also seem like states where GOTV efforts could reap results.

She could then lose FL, IA and even OH and still be in decent shape (PA and VA seem pretty solid to me at this point).

Of course, the goal is to "Catch 'em all!!" Pikachu/Charmander 2016!!

By: TheStig

TheStig — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 01:09:14 +0000

Too rapid editing of a comment is the bane of good grammar. : (

By: TheStig

TheStig — Tue, 06 Sep 2016 01:04:37 +0000

As Nate Silver puts it - Clinton is regressing towards the pre convention mean. That said she is not even close to crossing the line. She remains a strong favorite, stronger than Obama at the same point in ''12. Moving Florida into "Too Close To Call" seems unwarranted to me. NYT, 538', Daily K, PredictWise, and Princeton Election Consortium all give Clinton better than even odds, the average is 68%. If you call Florida a tossup, might as well add Ohio for consistency. Too many tossups is the bane of categorical EV maps : ).