Michale

And THERE that you have it..

Trump's popularity is not based on education, race, financial status, gender or anything else that fuels the Left Wingery...

Trump's popularity is based on one simple premise...

Are you mad as hell and aren't going to take it anymore??

Michale

not necessarily. although certainly related, college degrees don't necessarily make one smart, and the lack of a college degree doesn't mean one isn't. being bright and educated have some overlap, but aren't the same thing.

This Thompson guy sounds like a huge bigot who is feasting on sour grapes..

judge for yourself:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/who-are-donald-trumps-supporters-really/471714/

Agreed..

Michale

So, people who support Trump are stoopid??

This Thompson guy sounds like a huge bigot who is feasting on sour grapes..

Michale

i didn't respect him when he was a democrat (2001-2009) or a perot-ist (reform party, 1999-2001), so why should him being a republican change my mind? neil's right about one thing; a candidate has to earn a voter's respect, not the other way 'round. trump has through his own words and actions earned the disrespect of many who would otherwise have been inclined to support him.

which wasn't me to begin with. according to derek thompson of the atlantic, "the single best predictor of Trump support in the GOP primary has been the absence of a college degree."

JL

i didn't respect him when he was a democrat (2001-2009) or a perot-ist (reform party, 1999-2001), so why should him being a republican change my mind? neil's right about one thing; a candidate has to earn a voter's respect, not the other way 'round. trump has through his own words and actions earned the disrespect of many who would otherwise have been inclined to support him.

which wasn't me to begin with. according to derek thompson of the atlantic, "the single best predictor of Trump support in the GOP primary has been the absence of a college degree."

JL

If there were one question to identify a Trump supporter if you knew nothing else about him, what might it be? “Are you a middle-aged white man who hasn’t graduated from college?” might be a good one. But according to a survey from RAND Corporation, there is one that’s even better: Do you feel voiceless?

voters who agreed with the statement “people like me don't have any say about what the government does” were 86.5 percent more likely to prefer Trump. This feeling of powerlessness and voicelessness was a much better predictor of Trump support than age, race, college attainment, income, attitudes towards Muslims, illegal immigrants, or Hispanic identity.

The ONLY reason ya'all don't respect Trump is because he has a '-R' after his name..

All the other things are nothing more than convenient excuses...

Michale

You don't???

You don't need a better life?? Less headache and heartache??

However that is not my formula for respect - I give all people respect by default, but Trump's first words of his political campaign were to call Mexican illegal immigrants rapists - somebody who uses a political tactic like that immediately loses my respect. Voila!

The fact that it's, for the most part, true doesn't even enter into your thought process?? :D

But, credit where credit is due.. At least you recognize that it was ILLEGAL immigrants that were the target of Trump's wrath...

Michale

a/ Give Chris hell for making her stand behind the orange bigot
b/ will never be invited on stage again unless the Trump campaign as lost whatever nous they had
c/ will refuse to be there anyway

The look on her face as Trump denigrated women indirectly by saying that women only get where they are because of their sex was hilarious. Chi-raq - what about Chris-raq.

Because he needs something from us, and we don't need anything from him?

However that is not my formula for respect - I give all people respect by default, but Trump's first words of his political campaign were to call Mexican illegal immigrants rapists - somebody who uses a political tactic like that immediately loses my respect. Voila!

Seems like you are describing ya'all's reaction to Trump, not the other way around... :D

Think about it...

Michale

and along with it, every other form of correctness.

Nope.. Just Political Correctness...

And, apparently, it's working YUUGGGEEEE for Trump... :D

Michale

Respect begets respect..

Has anyone here given Trump any respect??

No...

So why would anyone here have an cause to expect respect FROM Trump??

Michale

and along with it, every other form of correctness.

factual accuracy? crushed.
consistency? 5 conflicting abortion positions in 3 days.
politeness? destroyed with a sneer.
human decency? laughed at
social decorum? utterly demolished.
fairness? completely eschewed, and the results blamed on china and mexico.
reality? tossed out the window.
respect? AWOL

and when marco rubio finally said, ""I'm not interested in being politically correct, I'm interested in being correct..."

...it was too late. correctness of any kind was gone, lost in the woods. depending on whether you draw the line at full truth or partial, between two and twenty-four percent of trump's statements have been factually correct. morally, ethically and socially, much less so.

JL

This is why Trump will win and Democrats will lose...

Michale

"Yea, well right now, Mac outranks your gut.."
-Jeff Daniels, SPEED

:D

Michale

As I said, this is 'gut' voting - 2015 was the safest year for cops in history from a gun violence perspective. The most deadly place for cops is not confronting criminals, but from sitting in the front seat of a cop car.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/12/30/its-official-there-never-was-a-war-on-cops/

This explains the surge in Republican voting. On the democratic side there hasn't been a real challenge to Hillary since super Tuesday - only the Bernie-believers and the press think there is any race left. Also the measurement is against 2008 which was a huge year for democratic turnout (+165%).

Never been to Vegas....

Michale

Nothing ventured, nothing gained... :D

Michale

Re: 16

Any cop will take being able to go home at night over pension/widow benefits any day of the week and twice on Sunday..

Democrats have made cops' jobs infinitely more dangerous..

And nothing stacks up to that...

A Trump administration will RESPECT LEOs...

Not say they act "stupidly" and not call them racist for NO REASON whatsoever....

THAT's what cops are basing their votes on...

Michale

Who's gonna win!?? Who knows!!!

I have to go to Vegas several times a year on business. Because I live the exact opposite of this sentiment is why I don't lose any money there ;)

Tortured syntax, I know.. But ya'all get the idea... :D

"Well he don't know talkin' good like me and you.."
-Rocket, GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY

:D

Michale

Should read:

'll bet the retired fire, teachers and cops in Stockton and Vallejo will not be voting for Trump.

Which doesn't mean dick...

It does mean dick. Here is why. The reason that Republicans win in blue states is to take on the public unions that are out of control - impossible to fire bad employees (teachers, cops, etc.), defined benefit pensions that are predicted to bankrupt many small towns (and larger ones - Stockton. Vallejo, etc.).

The unions of course cling to the democrats who support the status quo.

These nimrods at the bar are voting their gut, not their brain, or their pocket book. I'll bet the retired fire, teachers and cops in Stockton and Vallejo will be voting for Trump.

Making predictions based on the very unique current circumstances...

Never before has a major Democrat Candidate faced an all but assured indictment for felony violations of the Espionage Act...

Never before has a candidate so far outside the (BOTH) Party Mainstream has stood on the precipice of a major Party nomination...

Anyone who says this is normal run-o-the-mill politics is deluding themselves...

Michale

Basically it would be impossible to determine if this is an exceptional election, because there is no such thing as an exceptional election when judged from a primary/general turnout - it is 50-50.

Which is what makes the bet so much fun..

Who's gonna win!?? Who knows!!!

"This is exciting!!"
-Scotty, STAR TREK 90210

:D

Michale

Which doesn't mean dick...

"Lemme tell you something about those skills, slick. As of right now, they mean precisely dick.."
-Agent K, MEN IN BLACK

:D

.... when stacked up against the militant, horrendous and unfair attacks leveled by the Left Wingery against LEOs of all ranks and stature...

Michale

This election is unlike any election to date...

The most scary words in the investment industry: "This time it is different."

It never is. Reality pops the bubble being justified by these words time and time again.

Basically it would be impossible to determine if this is an exceptional election, because there is no such thing as an exceptional election when judged from a primary/general turnout - it is 50-50.

It looks like they will get it unless Trump starts doing a better job working the delegates, particularly in PA where there are so many superdelegates.

In the People's Republic of Hand-Wringing where I live Trump is the perfect way for both of the county's Republicans to annoy the hordes of horse-riding 'concerned'. Hell, I'm almost ready to vote for the vulgar little man just to annoy them (I won't).

really? if so, then why are you predicting the outcome? why is anybody? if there is a lack of precedent upon which to base predictions, then there can be no valid predictions - in which case your initial presumption, whatever it might have been, must also be meaningless.

JL

Net net - there is no correlation. This might be too much of a dose of reality for anybody living in their comfort bubble, but here are the facts:

Primary turnout never meant anything in previous elections..

This election is unlike any election to date...

I am willing to (T-Shirt) wager that low Democrat turnout in the primary will equal low Democrat turnout in the general...

Usual cast of characters (I stop there once per month or so) aren't there, the whole bar taken over by off duty cops.

You had me at "cops"!! :D

Michale

Net net - there is no correlation. This might be too much of a dose of reality for anybody living in their comfort bubble, but here are the facts:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/

Cycling home from work (17 miles), stopped for a beer at the Mexican Restaurant with the great 4:30pm to 6:30pm happy hour.

Usual cast of characters (I stop there once per month or so) aren't there, the whole bar taken over by off duty cops.

I sit in the middle of the group at the only open stool. I'm about as white as you can be - at a KKK xmas party people would point me out as the 'white guy over there'. I fit in fine.

Shop talk, then a joke about the lack of diversity in this town, "but that is why we are here - right?". Shortly later the owner shouts in Spanish back into the kitchen after somebody orders nachos "Hey, speak English". This is in a Mexican Restaurant, remember.

My hope is fulfilled - TV news has something political, and a few comments fly - "none of these guys are going to beat Trump", "he's the only one who knows business".

Remember, Unions and the Democrats have been really good to these guys (most will retire after 25 years with a $100K+ pension, index linked - I have a few cop friends), but they all want Trump.

Exclusive Data Analysis: Democrat Turnout Collapses Down More Than 4.5 Million, Nearly 20 Percent In 2016 Versus 2008
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/26/exclusive-data-analysis-democrat-turnout-collapses-4-5-million-nearly-20-percent-2016-versus-2008/

Now, of course, you will pooh-pooh the source.. I would, in ya'all's place..

But the data is pretty compelling...

Democrats are going to have a turnout problem.. Thanx, in a large part, to Clinton's negative ratings...

Michale

Considering the fact that Clinton's negatives (even without the FBI recommendation) are close to that of Trump's, claiming that Trump will "almost certainly lose" those states is more wishful thinking than fact based... :D

The Cruz/Kasich Alliance seems to have melted like a vampire exposed to sunlight.

Yea... Vaporware... Nothing but wishful thinking on the part of Cruz....

Michale

Bernie may pick up some wins

ELIMINATION TUESDAY

It's likely that Kasich, Cruz and Sanders will be kicked to the curb...

Leaving Clinton and Trump as the nominee...

Which should scare the crap outta ya'all because polls have shown that the distance Clinton had over Trump has all but disappeared, leaving them neck and neck... Some polls even show Trump winning..

And that's WITHOUT FBI Director Comey's impending recommendation...

President Trump is inching closer and closer to reality, my friends... :D

Michale

Totally agree with your predictions.

But I have a question: why do different outlets all have different delegate counts? Why is it so hard to get accurate figures? I'd really like to know the state of play but it's well nigh impossible to crunch the figures when everyone has such a vastly different idea of what they are!

What do you think of the election season so far?

"I think its been crazy. I'm not a Trump person -- I think he's a bonehead. Now the other guys...the other guys...

I said "Sanders? Cruz? Kasich?"

"Sanders. I like Sanders. I think I like what he stands for."