https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MljRSIc-8nQ&feature=youtu.be

It's frakin' hilarious!! :D

Michale

It's not really a ...er... uh... choice {snicker, snicker}..

If Bernie wants to even have a CHANCE of winning, he is going to have to play by Clinton's rules...

Dirty tricks that would make Nixon blush....

Michale

Looks like the GOP Establishment is coming around to Trump.... :D

Michale

If it goes to a third ballot he'll have to show more delegate-wrangling capability than we've seen so far, as some pledged delegates who had to vote for him on the first ballot or two decide that they really are free to vote their own preference (aka "the good of the country" and "the good of the Party" as they claim to see it).

And, by extension, the Republicans are becoming the Party of the Middle Class..

Hmmmmmmmm

Where have I heard this before...??? :D

Michale

And another comment that makes me giggle.. :D

Michale

Seems that "holding grudges" might be one of those New York values....

Agreed.. :D

I could picture Barbossa (easily the best character of the POTC series, although OST put that in jeopardy.. :D) when I read it.. :D

Michale

As far as I can determine, the Republican Party operates like the Outback Steakhouse - no rules.

Uh... The FULL slogan is..

NO RULES... JUST RIGHT

And I DON'T think they mean "right" in the sense of the Right Wingery...

So...... :D

Michale

If Trump tops 1000, then the nomination will be his.

Sure, the MSM will play up some drama, try to gin up some violence, as they are wont to do....

But if Trump gets over 1000 delegates, he will be the nominee...

The old adage "Winning isn't everything, it's the ONLY thing" won't apply here..

They WAY Cruz is "winning" his delegates will come back to bite him on the ass.... Cruz has just given Trump a nice shiny baseball bat and you just have to know that Trump knows what to do with it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCfYWELLwZY

:D

Michale

In order to prevent Trump getting to 1237, Kasich and Cruz combined will have to win 281 of the remaining delegates - that's the equivalent of winning 42% (plus change) of the remaining primary races.

Now, let's take CW's magic figure of 1138. In order to keep Trump down to that 1138 figure, Cruz and Kasich combined would need to win 380 of the remaining delegates - and that translates to an average of 57% of the remaining primaries.

The optics of their winning the majority of the remaining delegates (and the nearer such wins are in time, the more psychological impact they have) will dwarf the fact that Trump came within double figures of the magic 1237.

It would mean that he could only gain less than 300 delegates (while Cruz/Kasich pulled in 380) and only average around 42% of the vote. That's going to look and "feel" like losing so 1138 is not likely to be a magic number for him.

I think Trump needs to pick up more than half of the remaining delegates in order for unbound delegates to feel sufficient confidence in his ability to be a winner.

Half the delegates would be 337 but to only get that would look like he could barely stay neck-and-neck with Kasich/Cruz -- not good optics for him.

I believe he needs to win at least 360 of the remaining delegates (53.5%) for him to be viewed as a winning proposition -- and that would net him 1200.

Of course it would be better for him if he can reach that 1237 figure and I believe he can, especially if he gains all 159 delegates in the remaining five winner-takes-all primaries and most of the 72 in last two winner-takes-most primaries. That would get him more than halfway to his goal of 397.

OK, your "pirate rules" quip was funny!

:-)

Looks like Clinton's going to win by 15-16 points.

GOP del count (so far):

Trump: 89
Kasich: 3
Cruz: 0

Three more to be awarded...

Boy, Cruz got shellacked! So much for those "New York values," eh?

Heh.

-CW

"Primary prognostication is a lot harder than presidential progging (new word), due to both the larger number of candidates involved and the need to understand the arcane rules of both the National Republican Party and the 60 or so local GOP chapters in States and Territories."

I couldn't figure out the rules then, and I can't figure them out now. All my research has made me more confused, but on much higher plane. As far as I can determine, the Republican Party operates like the Outback Steakhouse - no rules. Or maybe it's more like the Pirate Code: "more what you'd call "guidelines" than actual rules." In other words, serving suggestions. Just winning primaries or precincts within primaries doesn't necessarily get you delegates.

Cruz has sussed this for a while, Deal Maker Trump is figuring it out late in the game.

Interesting, about Manhatten. The maps I'm looking at are not good enough to show this...

-CW

It'll be interesting to see the final margins, on both sides. Trump seems to be doing OK upstate -- most counties are over 50%, so a sweep (or near-sweep) is looking possible.

-CW

Trump is crushing everyone, up above 70% at times...

Speak2 -

I think you answered your own question. Sanders is indeed moving the O-window for Dems (and for Hillary). He's going to continue doing that, right up to the convention. But he'll also do what he can to convince his supporters to support her. Whether they listen to him or not, that's another question. But he's said all along "Hillary would be miles better than any of the yahoos on the other side," and I think he really believes that.

-CW

-CW

Today's post came up mid-commenting, so I was hoping to move to today.

I do really hope you're right about the end game for Sanders should he come up short.

Sanders campaign is in a strange boat. They entered b/c there was no left challenge to move the "Overton window." No one at the time thought it would be a real challenge. I strongly doubt that at the time Sanders expected the race to be where it is at present.

I do think that somewhere in the last few months, ego has come into play. Once he had a shot, he started playing differently and thinking differently, and not for the "better."

Like I said, I hope you're right, but we'll see.

What do you think about the season to date? He was happy to be asked!

"I think it's ridiculous. I think it's the biggest mess this country's ever seen. And I really do not -- just my personal opinion -- believe there's one person anywhere on that stage that can fix it all. You need a unit. Everybody attack their strong points. It's like if you have, say Sanders, put him on healthcare and education. Donald Trump: put him on turning these finances around. Hillary Clinton: put her on dealing with other foreign countries."

At that point a car came zooming by so fast this guy pulled me out of the way. After we regrouped, he went on.

"For instance, Donald Trump. I really believe he could fix things financially but with him we'd be at war with everyone from Barberton (a small Ohio city) to Korea!"

We laughed then I moved on.

Interesting take. Cruz lags by about 200 right now, doesn't he? That's about to be almost 300 after tonight...

But that is another good way to look at it, I have to admit.

-CW

In my opinion, though, the number isn't the question. The actual question is how close does Cruz have to get to deny him the nomination. If Cruz isn't within 100 delegates, given the electorate's opinions, then denying Trump the nomination becomes a much nastier political football. That's where I put the two-digit vs three-digit question.