It actually did.. I commented to my lovely wife that the work and effort going into making the period look perfect was AMAZING!!

She looked at me confused and said, "Why not? It's a TV show.."

And I told her, "Yea.. But it's HULU!!!" :D

You'll be amazed...

Michale

Ah, but did it have cool 50s cars, like in the book? Inquiring minds want to know...

Heh.

-CW

Truer words were never spoken...

Michale

:-)

Not a big fan of pre-quel TV series.. Tried to get into CAPRICA (pre-quel to BATTLESTAR GALACTICA) but bailed after 10 mins...

But, speaking of series... CW, have you seen the two hour premiere of 11.22.63??

It's based on the Stephen King novel that is completely and utterly MIND-BLOWING...

And the series is off to a good start in that department...

Michale

I understand that these were not necessarily your personal opinions on how things would go, I merely wanted address the unlikelihood of these scenarios working out as some people seem to think they might.

I think I already said this in a previous comment, but for anyone who enjoys the prequel series "Gotham," the big "Godfather" mobster character in the show is played by the same actor as Rodrigo Borgia (Pope Alexander VI) in "Borgia." What is hilarious is that it he's actually playing the SAME BASIC character! The only real difference is his hair's shorter in the Batman series, and he wears modern clothes. The attitudes and the power-mongering are exactly the same, though...

:-)

-CW

Good point about the voters being able to dump Cruz.

Here's an interesting back-of-the-envelope guess about Trump's delegate haul. Either way, it could be very close.

As for "progging," well, that just sounds dirty. Heh.

I spent a few weeks a while back binge-watching "Borgia" (note: singluar -- not "The Borgias"), which had all of that as well as a political/theological dynasty family...

Bleyd [9] -

All good points. But this article was an exploration of "could anyone else actually beat Trump" without addressing the probability of any of it actually happening. I agree that Trump could reap enough voters from either Cruz or Rubio dropping out, and even that that is the more-likely outcome. But I really wanted to entertain the idea that perhaps Trump doesn't have it all wrapped up yet, so I kind of ignored that aspect.

-CW

Just to let everyone know, I posted today's column a bit early, so it would appear before the caucuses end in Nevada.

-CW

Throughout this entire period, pundits and establishmentarians alike convinced themselves, over and over again, that since they personally could not conceive of Trump becoming the GOP nominee, such a thing was almost by definition inconceivable.

you keep using that word. i don't think it means what you think it means.
~mandy patenkin (inigo montoya), the princess bride

and yet, here we are, on the cliffs of insanity.

JL

Logical...

Michale

Trump has already shown that he's eating into the evangelical part of Cruz's base, and has long since been a competitor for the angry TP portion of Cruz's base. Rather than Cruz's supporters flocking to Rubio, it seems more likely that they'd flock to Trump, as he more closely embodies the anti-establishment sentiment that Cruz is trying to promote. Sure, there are bound to be anti-trump voters, but Rubio's establishment credentials would seem to be a liability for many of Cruz's voters.

There have already been articles here pointing out that the establishment republicans detest Cruz, and that should Rubio drop out of the race, Trump might actually be the preferable alternative to Cruz for the establishment. Rather than all of Rubio's support going to Cruz, it seems more likely that it would at worst split between him and Trump, and possibly just depress the number of voters who show up, as they wouldn't want to vote for either, which would still benefit Trump. After all, Trump may be winning around 40 out of 100 voters now, but if 20 of those who don't vote for trump simply don't vote at all, Trump would rise to 50% of the vote instead of 40%.

Yep...

It's why Donald Trump is doing so well..

The Democrats have frak'ed up the country... :D

YMMV :D

Michale

An agreeably concise and engaging account of what can happen when government becomes dysfunctional and fails to meet expectations of the governed, both mighty and ordinary. Sound familiar?

A few thoughts of mine on the above.

Trump has essentially eaten Cruz's lunch, lunch being in this instance the Tea Party wing of the Republican base. Cruz is Blue Light Covenant Tea Party and Trump is not, but the TP base just likes Trump better, and this includes the evangelicals. Cruz doesn't have to drop out, the base can just drop him - and there are signs this is happening. It may not matter much if Cruz chooses to throw his support to Rubio or Trump, or just sulk and spoil a bit.

The interesting question (to me at least) is whether Trump can capture enough of the Republican Primary electorate to get 50% of the vote and win enough delegates to take the nomination on the first round. This depends in some part on whether Trump or Rubio is the more attractive second choice among the Republican primary voters (many of these will be first time primary voters). There is some pollster evidence to suggest that Rubio is the stronger second choice, but this sort of polling is expensive and rare. The Prediction Markets seem to "think" that Rubio is the stronger second choice, which is probably one factor in why Rubio is almost tied with Trump in the Republican Nomination category and actually somewhat ahead of Trump in the next President market.

Now, the pollsters may be using old data or flawed data, and the Markets may be simply Cuckoo-Bananas. The markets have done pretty well so far, but that's no guarantee they are right now. Primary prognostication is a lot harder than presidential progging (new word), due to both the larger number of candidates involved and the need to understand the arcane rules of both the National Republican Party and the 60 or so local GOP chapters in States and Territories.

If the Trump doesn't get a clean win on the first ballot, The Republican Establishment may have a lot more muscle than it seems to have now. I can't bring myself to entirely discount Trump losing a first round opportunity in a three candidate field, if the 2nd and 3rd place candidates can each win enough all/or nothing races to deny Trump a first ballot win. Trump has done well in the opening races, but of these are small and quirky. A lot of mid and large quirky races remain.

I tend to weigh market logic heavilly, and right now the market is saying Trump is a coin toss to win the nomination, and a dice roll of "one" to win the Presidency. Granted, that's better than I expected him to do, but he hasn't closed this deal yet.

Trump: As president, I would prosecute Clinton
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-as-president-i-would-prosecute-clinton/article/2583925

heh :D

Michale

AND the totality of the Left Wingery... Don't forget them... :D

Admit it.. Ya'all have been wrong about Trump since he started his campaign.. :D

And, since ya'all have been wrong about Trump from the get-go, isn't it possible that ya'all could be wrong about President Trump??

Hmmmmmm??? :D

Michale

Interesting point, but keep in mind that I don't believe any GOP candidate has "dropped out." Instead they've "suspended their campaign." I always thought they did this so that they could pay off the campaign debts later on, but it also may be to retain their delegates for the first ballot at the convention.

But that's sheer speculation, I don't really know the answer.

-CW

A quibble with one of the fantasy scenarios. If Cruz does drop out, then based on your argument, Carson has less reason to stay in. Assuming he does worse than Cruz, he could drop out shortly after Cruz, so Cruz voters don't necessarily go to Carson.

So, when a candidate drops out of the GOP race, what happens to the delegates that were pledged to them? Do they have to follow their candidate's endorsement on the first ballot, are they "free," or must they vote for their pledged candidate on the first ballot even though that person has dropped out? Each party has their own rules, what are the GOP's?