Conventional wisdom says that Bush will back Rubio...

Michale

I was surprised that Rubio actually pulled off 2nd place, I thought that was one of those wild-eyed guesses...

-CW

Turning to S.C. Who will Jeb._ throw his support to? Will it matter? Trump wins all the delegates (first round bound) with 32% of the vote. SC is technically not a winner take all state.

:-)

-CW

I'm speechless ...

Well, that passed.
Can we shorten that title to QE3? :)

Seriously, your very kind words brought back a flood of fond memories and also reminds why the whole HP-FB thing was so damned distressing. It was my distinct pleasure to invite the best HP commenters to participate here, the best reality-based participatory political blog on the internets, and that is what I have truly missed the most since my HP commenting privileges finally ceased.

I echo your suggestion to any of us here who still comment over at HP to keep your eyes out for people who you think would appreciate the blessings of CW.com - and, not just those who comment on Chris's blog there but, wherever you run into them, on any article. I promise to do my part and keep an eye on things over there as well and just ask Michale to take care of the invites.

Because, the more, the merrier, I always say!

12th to go... and then there were 5...

-CW

We both missed on our Nevada picks but you're looking good for SC based on the early exit polls...

Hillary wins Nevada, according to the networks...

SC results in an hour or two.

-CW

That is an excellent idea. Everyone here with FB accounts should occasionally drop a teaser link at HuffPost to entice more new readers!

I have to say, this role used to be provided in an incredible way with unrelenting passion by our very own LizM.

Many moons ago, LizM waged a one-woman PR war at HuffPost for a LONG time, continually pointing people to this site in post after post after post. She convinced more people to check the site out than anyone, ever, and that includes ME.

I never asked her to do this for me, but she continued her campaign right up until the FB era. She and I both tried to get HP to relent about the new requirement, to no avail.

I not only never asked to do all of this, I also (shamefully) never properly acknowledged or thanked her for her service.

So I make amends now. I miss LizM's "You should really check out the reality-based commentary over at chrisweigant.com" on all those articles, in HuffPost threads. I miss the traffic that came over as a direct result.

So, LizM, our humble thanks! We hereby dub thee "CW PR Queen Extraordinaire."

To everyone else with a FB page... plug the site at HP! Plug the Tuesday and Thursday articles they don't see!

This is an election year, and interest in political blogging should be at an all-time high (if history is any guide), so now is indeed the time for such an effort!

:-)

-CW

[In the hopes you'll see my reply to your reply at HuffPost...]

Yeah, I might have been interested in Facebook, but I created my own site, my own blog, with my own name on it. I thought that was good enough, and there was no reason to give FB all my personal information just to answer people on HuffPost. I complained about this at the time, but it did no good.

I do miss chatting with HP commenters, though. Many of the regulars here started as HP commenters, and we'd have epic back-and-forths over there, before the AOL-ization occurred.

I welcome you to this site, and invite you to check it out -- I post here every day instead of just M/W/F, and you never have to hunt around the site for my most recent posts!

:-)

In any case, thanks for the kind words...

-CW

Thank you! It actually worked -- it's still up!

[I think they've forgotten about you... heh]

Anyway, mucho thanks.

-CW

I trust that everyone here will join me, AND Bernie, into telling Clinton to release the transcripts of her Wall Street speeches that got her millions and millions of dollars in speaking fees..

Right?? :D

Michale

hehehehe :D

Michale

That's funny... Cuz Salon just stated that Hillary can't win.. :D

Hillary Clinton just can’t win: Democrats need to accept that only Bernie Sanders can defeat the GOP
http://www.salon.com/2016/02/19/hillary_clinton_just_cant_win_democrats_need_to_accept_that_only_bernie_sanders_can_defeat_the_gop/

Michale

I just wonder how long it is before some HP moderator spews their espresso and says, "Holy frak, Michale's back!!!" heh :D

Actually, absence makes the heart grow fonder, you know. :)

Besides, I doubt there is any institutional memory at HuffPost.

Yes, well, you always are ... :)

the polls are of all registered or likely voters, not just those voting in primaries. Fox, until recently the only polling service to give trump an edge, has clinton up by 5 head-to-head on february 15-17. here's all the trump v. clinton data thus far:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

I doubt many true Independents or NPAs are part and parcel to the primary process..

I don't know about any other states (I think it was brought up here once but can't recall) but in FL, registered Independents aren't ALLOWED to vote in primaries...

In other words, the polls conducted AFTER the primaries are the best indication of which way Independents will jump..

And I'll be gabberflasted if many swing towards Hillary...

Michale

I'll be on my best behavior.. :D

Michale

Woot!!! :D

I just wonder how long it is before some HP moderator spews their espresso and says, "Holy frak, Michale's back!!!" heh :D

Michale

Anyway, you should keep an eye on things there ...

hooray! inviting smart commentators of all stripes to cross over should probably be a more regular practice among regulars who still frequent HP. i've just been scrolling the past few posts, and a number of people there have made decent points. not decent enough to make me want to start sharing my data with facebook again, but decent nonetheless.

JL

if so, they must despise trump more, because hillary still edges trump at the moment.

Your comment at HP worked and we may soon have a new member of Weigantia ...

Except by Team Clinton...

Hillary's problem is that Independents despise her as much as Republicans do..

That is why Clinton is the most flawed Democrat candidate...

Michale

Done.. :D

No guarantee it lasts, though. heh

Michale

I was serious. Can you head over to HuffPost and post a comment to Fran Moore's comment? I would really appreciate it. Let her know I've answered her over here, in the first comment in the whole thread...

Thanks!

-CW

questions or statements, whichever, they're two different things. also, there's plenty of evidence opposed to your interpretations. for example, the fact that hillary is currently closer to being president than any other woman in history speaks to both issues.

@paula,

agree about sanders - i like him as a candidate and agree with him on many issues, but his ability to overcome political attacks is as yet an unknown quantity. i sincerely hope he has the staying power to win if nominated, and would love to see him nominate a few supreme court justices.

also agree with you on clinton vs. cruz or trump. we don't know yet if current polling is right. if so, rubio is the only republican who leads her head to head in the RCP average. furthermore, i agree that hillary has been the target of so much vitriol that it's hard to pick out the attacks that are valid and supported by evidence from those that are spurious and/or fabricated. i don't know if your 95% figure is right, but it can seem that way at times.

@JM and JFC,

Huffpo really has declined. on those rare occasions i go back there to read an article, the quality seems significantly lower than it was 5 years ago. then again, maybe that's just my perception.

JL

http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/map_of_the_week/2013/10/sizes_of_spaceships_in_science_fiction_a_chart.html?wpsrc=theweek

Anyone ever see this?? :D

Michale

Sorry 'bout that, comment has now been restored...

-CW

Well said.

I'm starting to see rumblings on various blogs about Bernie's numbers not holding up well once people hear the kinds of attacks it is assumed will be unleashed on him by Republicans, should he win. Right now we have a situation in which Hillary is seen as polarizing and Bernie seen as more likable BUT Hillary's been vilified for years (95% unfairly) and Bernie hasn't been vilified at all. Repubs may be holding their fire for now, but you can be sure they'll unleash at a nuclear level if he becomes the nominee.

The thing we can't really tell yet is how Hillary would start to stack up if it's her versus Cruz, Trump, Rubio etc. and she is able to go full-throttle (i.e. not trying to avoid alienating Bernie's folks). We know the hard-core Hillary haters will keep on hatin', but I suspect a lot of Americans haven't internalized all that -- and if she can barrage the world with positive ads and her opponent is one of these exceedingly unattractive (in different ways) options -- perceptions could change.

It's clear that Hillary is hoping that women are simpletons and just vote with their vaginas...

Michale

uh, no. that is two questions.

No... They are two statements...

Statements supported by facts...

Michale

Cite your evidence for a "large percentage"... Or, more accurately, how do you define "large"??

More than 2??

Because, if a "large percentage" of Americans wanted Hillary as POTUS, some relatively unknown socialist from Vermont wouldn't be handing her ass to her..

No??

Michale

They just don't want THAT woman (Hillary Clinton) as President...

uh, no. that is two questions.

question 1: female president
people are mostly fine with the idea of a woman president, but less likely to support any specific woman for president than any specific man.

question 2: hillary clinton:
i know you don't like to hear it, but a large percentage of the american people would be quite content to have hillary clinton as president, for varying reasons, some of them valid.

JL

Well, let's take a look at the borders of the Vatican...

https://www.google.com/search?q=Vatican+Walls&espv=2&biw=1920&bih=935&site=webhp&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwibs8u984HLAhWG4yYKHXtTAMsQ_AUIBigB`

Hypocrisy much???

Michale

You just KNOW that Bashi is gonna love this!! :D heh

Michale

hillary clinton is a very specific case, a person who is polarizing both on the positive and the negative side. deservedly or not, she's become an icon of boomer and gen-x women who feel like their time has come, as well as the target of backlash against the general advances of women in politics. much of this iconic status is completely unrelated to the kind of person or politician she is. so, the right hates her in spite of her strengths, and the left likes her in spite of her weaknesses.

So, in other words, Americans are fine with a woman President.

They just don't want THAT woman (Hillary Clinton) as President...

"Vlad," I said, "I've always wanted to know the answer to this question,
And you strike me as the only guy I'm ever gonna meet who can give me an answer,
So lay it on me pal, are there intelligent civilizations out there, other than us?
And if there are, then why haven't they contacted us?"
Vlad looked at me over his glasses. "That is two questions," he said
~peter mulvey

Uhhh... I got nuttin... :D

Michale

Or, is it MORE likely that the American people have a problem with HILLARY as POTUS???

those are two different questions, each of which has to be answered individually. further, i believe that it's too complicated to be a yes or no question in either case.

in the abstract, i think most US voters are fine with the IDEA of a female president. but when faced with a specific candidate, no matter who it may be, women don't get equal consideration based on their merits and flaws. the situation is certainly better than it was twenty years ago, but just as women still make seventy cents on the dollar compared to men in similar jobs, women start any political race at a slight disadvantage. it's not insurmountable, just a subtle vestige of the past - a slight subconscious unease with someone who may be shorter, curvier, have a higher pitched voice, a slightly different conversation style, what have you. it's not an easy thing to nail down with solid evidence in any specific case, but it does still seem to be present in the general sense among the electorate.

hillary clinton is a very specific case, a person who is polarizing both on the positive and the negative side. deservedly or not, she's become an icon of boomer and gen-x women who feel like their time has come, as well as the target of backlash against the general advances of women in politics. much of this iconic status is completely unrelated to the kind of person or politician she is. so, the right hates her in spite of her strengths, and the left likes her in spite of her weaknesses.

JL

umm, that's not what the article is about.

I didn't say that was what the article was about..

But it DOES show that, at the very least, Hillary intimated it... As you yourself point out, it wouldn't surprise you if Hillary DID say/think that..

But, let's get down to brass tacks..

Do you honestly believe that, in the here and now, that Americans have a problem with a female POTUS??

Or, is it MORE likely that the American people have a problem with HILLARY as POTUS???

Michale

http://product-images.highwire.com/5113438/img0018.jpg

Oh look. It's Bob! :D

Michale

OH, I just figured out what the problem is ... I reposted your CW link and added one of my own!

Yea, I have done that a couple times.. :D

JL,

you should really read these articles more closely.

Yea, I guess. My eyes kinda glaze over when I read Vanity Fair.. :D

Michale

I think the CW picks are very reasonable, but I lean towards Hillary squeaking a win in Nevada.

I believe saint Cajetan is the patron of prognosticators under his gamblers franchise. Lighting a candle might help, if you follow basic safety protocols. Here's a nice one.

http://product-images.highwire.com/5113438/img0018.jpg

It'll show up eventually ... I guess.

10 Elizabeth Miller wrote:[Comment is awaiting moderation. Please forgive us for the delay.]

This is the response that is posted in lieu of my comment #10 in reply to your comment #4.

As soon as I remember what I said, I'll try re-posting! What's going on!?

i think i have a facebook account somewhere, but to be honest it's not worth the hassle of dealing with just to post something on huffpo.

I fully realize that, NOW!

If it was just to post something on HP, I would never have considered it. But, as I said, there was one HP blogger in particular who I honestly loved the back and forth with; he closed down his own blog site and HP was all that was left; so that's why I even gave a thought at all to opening a facebook account; a decision I will now forever regret ...

Maybe a blurb at the end of the commentary stating, Author replies to all comments at http://www.chrisweigant.com or words to that effect..

Or, please visit http://www.chrisweigant.com for a sincerely no-holds-barred fun discussion with the author!

Might piss off the HuffPoop gods, though... :D

Who really cares? :)

As for the notepad, I'm seriously thinking of ditching my desktop in favour of a more mobile device. Any suggestions that won't drastically reduce my screen space because, you know, I like a big screen ...

i think i have a facebook account somewhere, but to be honest it's not worth the hassle of dealing with just to post something on huffpo.

JL

then the author tries to lead her toward making a general comment about sexism in politics, which to loosely paraphrase is that it's still sort-of a subtle issue but it's getting better.

you should really read these articles more closely.

JL

That's our Hillary. It's ALWAYS someone else's fault. She is NEVER to blame..

She learned well from Obama... :^/

Michale

Maybe a blurb at the end of the commentary stating, Author replies to all comments at http://www.chrisweigant.com or words to that effect..

If you DO do that, I promise to be on my best behavior.. :D

At least at first. heh

Michale

SC Dems: Clinton (in hopes of keeping it somewhat interesting)

You want "interesting"??

If Bernie wins Nevada *AND* South Carolina, I can guarantee you that it will DEFINITELY be "interesting".. :D

Michale

I fully admit that this is "WishCasting" more than anything else...

Hillary doesn't DESERVE to win and I find it personally offensive and nauseating when she does...

Don't really care about the GOP race, but I'll follow the herd and call it for Trump.. :D

Liz,

I too have also did a FB thingy.. There was a span of a couple weeks when I didn't have a phone so FB was the only way I could communicate with family..

I got a new NOTEPAD 4 (have you seen the VR?? Oh my gods, it's frighteningly amazing!! :D ) but now I am stuck with a FB account..

"You keep that shit forever. Like luggage."
-Eddie Murphy, DELIRIOUS

:D

Anyway, have you thought of disabling your HP comments (I know it can and has been done!) and then people with have to come here. :)

Maybe a blurb at the end of the commentary stating, Author replies to all comments at http://www.chrisweigant.com or words to that effect..

Might piss off the HuffPoop gods, though... :D

Michale

Nevada Dems: Sanders
SC Dems: Clinton (in hopes of keeping it somewhat interesting)

Genuinely interesting is the Republican contest. My "picks" are more wishful thinking than anything but I figure I can get away with that since I cannot be regarded as a pundit in any way, shape or form!

SC: 1. Trump; 2. Bush; 3. Kasich
Nevada: 1. Trump; 2. Cruz; 3. Rubio

Against ALL better judgement, I opened a facebook account for the express and singular purpose of being able to comment at Huffington Post - what can I say, there were a few bloggers over there with whom I enjoyed chatting, from time to time and they were worth the facebook effort. And, believe you me, it was an EFFORT!

As it turned out, however, the facebook thing never worked out for me and I was never again able to comment at HP, hard as I tried to make it work.
It seems I am stuck with having a facebook account, though, despite the fact that I never use it and couldn't sign into it if my life depended on it.

Anyway, have you thought of disabling your HP comments (I know it can and has been done!) and then people with have to come here. :)

First, I apologize for answering you here rather than at HuffPost, but I refuse to get a Facebook account, so I am unable to post comments there. In fact, I would beg any of my regular readers here who do have a FB acct. to go over to this column on HuffPost (click the "Cross-posted at" link at the end of the column above) and direct her over here to see my answer.

As for your pointing out I had achieved the record of coin-flipping, I laughed out loud when I read it. Touché! I thought it was so funny, in fact, I had to include it in today's article... so thanks for keeping me humble!

In the first of these columns I ever wrote, way back in 2008, I explained that pundits should indeed be held accountable:

Which is a shame. If political writers (both professional and amateur) aren't willing to run the risk of being wrong (and looking foolish), then what are they in the prognostication business for anyway? After all, every two-bit local news sportscaster is willing to tell you his picks for the outcome of each week's football games, why shouldn't our national political press be just as willing to do the same?

I still believe the same, and I cheerfully accept any ridicule of my picks or my record which is fully deserved.

Yours was, most definitely. That's why I had to include it today.

:-)

-CW