I agree with your field of five, but not who belongs in the Great Chance, Decent Chance and Slim Chance Great Chance categories.

My own ranking of the horse race:

Great Chance: Nobody. In my judgment, no Republication candidate has a better than even chance of winning nomination at this time.

Decent Chance: Rubio, Cruz, Trump

Slim Chance: Bush, Carson

I don't put much faith in polls at this stage. Here's one reason why. The standard question asked by polling outfits goes like this "If the election were held today..." In other words, they encouraging the respondent to take a short view of a long term process. Tactical voting considerations are completely ignored.

In the early to mid game of a campaign cycle, I put more faith in prediction markets than polls because markets encourage investors to consider the end result...and keep them focused with a monetized stake in the outcome.

I also put a lot of faith in fundamentals like having won and held office, money, especially the ability to raise it from other people and endorsements.

I rate Rubio the favorite among the five and still climbing. He is leading in the prediction markets, and steadily climbing in the polls. He does reasonably well in fundamentals.

Cruz does well the fundamentals, but he is weak in both polls and markets, but at least level in both. I figure he some untapped potential to launch.

Trump does well in the polls(Remember Herman Cain?), but he can't seem to crack the 30% ceiling. Trump is currently a distant second in the markets, but I rate him weak in other factors.

Bush looks good in the fundamentals, but has under performed in virtually every other respect. He's very near the cliff.

Carson looks strong in the polls, but is weak in the markets and the fundamentals. He has the Barry Goldwater problem: "in your heart you know he's right, in guts, you know he's nuts."

On the other hand, when has THAT ever stopped me, eh? :D

My take on Jeb is that he is a Bush and the American people are tired of the name. Almost as much as they are tired of the Clinton name... I mean, let's face the reality here. Hillary is 20 times the Scandal Magnet that Bill is...

Anyways, Jeb had a lot to overcome and he has been found wanting...

At any other time or in another reality, Bush might have been a glorious candidate..

"In another reality, I could have called you 'friend'."
-Mark Lenard, STAR TREK, Balance Of Terror

Michale

I just thought I would quote that juxtaposition.

The *ONLY* way that Sanders has a chance is if Hillary is indicted or has a coronary..

Either of which is a very real and distinct possibility so I grant you that Sanders has a possibility...

You live in Florida. Has Jeb always been this bad at campaigning, or is it a recent development? What was he like campaigning for governor? Just curious, as I haven't heard anyone talk about his past campaigns, one way or the other.

I rarely pay much attention to local and state politics, so I don't think I would be qualified to answer..

Michale

O'Malley has no chance, and I wouldn't mind him not being on a debate stage. Sanders, however, still does have a chance (he's polling higher among Dems than either Trump or Carson among GOPers).

John From Censornati [10] -

OK, I'd watch that!

:-)

Michale [12] -

You live in Florida. Has Jeb always been this bad at campaigning, or is it a recent development? What was he like campaigning for governor? Just curious, as I haven't heard anyone talk about his past campaigns, one way or the other.

-CW

What ya don't realize is that it's been over for Jeb for months now..
:D

Michale

"What a bunch of pussies..."
-Tommy Lee Jones, UNDER SEIGE

"University Police Emergency Line. What is your emergency??"

"Somebody hurt my feelings!! I have her name, her lic # and location!! Send a SWAT team!!! Hurry!!! Before she gets away!!"
"Ma'am, our SWAT team is currently engaged taking out a terrorist cell that is planning on detonating a dirty bomb.."
"I don't CARE!!! My FEELINGS have been hurt, you Neanderthal!!!! THAT is your priority!!!!"

Ya'all realize that those Left Wingers at MU just made their school the laughing stock of the entire country, right?? :D

Considering how bad their football team is, they are probably used to it...

That is the Left Wingery's contribution to American society...

Political Correctness that is totally whacked...

“Help me get this reporter out of here. I need some muscle over here.”
-Melissa Click, Professor, Mass Media, University of Missouri
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/11/can-we-take-political-correctness-seriously-now.html

Michale

Thank gods that doesn't apply here in Weigantia...

At least, not for the vast majority of us... :D

Michale

In an email that was flagged by several Missouri-based journalists, the MUPD asked “individuals who witness incidents of hateful and/or hurtful speech or actions” to call the department’s general phone line “to continue to ensure that the University of Missouri campus remains safe.” They suggest that students provide a detailed description of the offender, their location or license plate number, and even to take a picture if possible.
http://www.mediaite.com/online/university-of-missouri-police-ask-students-to-report-hurtful-speech/

The future leaders of government...

The future captains of industry...

"What a bunch of pussies..."
-Tommy Lee Jones, UNDER SEIGE

:D

Michale

For the Democrat Party, "free speech" is simply a euphemism for silencing dissent and acknowledging only that speech that is politically and ideologically acceptable...

In short, it's an AGREE WITH US OR WE WILL HOUND YOU TO THE ENDS OF THE EARTH AND ATTACK YOU MERCILESSLY UNTIL YOU CAPITULATE OR ARE DESTROYED!!! way of thinking...

Lovely....

Michale

"I want more women to run for office, but equally important is encouraging more men to sometimes just shut the hell up."
-Senator Claire McCaskill D-MO

Yea, tell it like it is, Mac!!

If you aren't ideologically pure?? "Just shut the hell up!"...

If you don't say what we want to hear?? "Just shut the hell up!!"..

Yea... Democrats and "free speech"...

Gotta love it... :^/

Michale

There was no "truth" about criminal cops because there was no criminal cops.

THAT is exactly my point. Tarentino's anti-cop hate-the-cops tirage was nothing more than a bullshit sandwich..

And ya ate it up... :D

"I eat pieces of shit like you for breakfast!!"
"You eat pieces of shit for breakfast??"
-Happy Gilmore

:D

Michale

Well, OK... If the litmus test is that there is NO ACTUAL CHANCE of winning, then by that same litmus test, Sanders and O'Malley should be forced out of the race for the Democrat Candidate, right??

I mean, if it applies to the Right, it should apply in the same way to the Left...

No??

Michale

Left Wing Student: "In your position as master it is your job to create a place of comfort and home for the students who live in Silliman. You have not done that. By sending out that email, that goes against your position as master. Do you understand that?!"

Left Wing Student: "Then why the fuck did you accept the position?! Who the fuck hired you?! You should step down! If that is what you think about being a master you should step down! It is not about creating an intellectual space! It is not! Do you understand that? It’s about creating a home here. You are not doing that! You should not sleep at night! You are disgusting!"

There's your Democrat Party idea of "free speech"....

There's your Democrat Party idea of "tolerance"....

Michale

Chik Fil A?? Mozilla Board Member?? Pizzaria owner in Idaho??

Any of those "Freedom Of Speech" issues ring a bell??

Let's face it, Sunshine.. In your Leftist Democrat Utopia only those with appropriate approved ideology is entitled to "free speech"...

Anyone else can go suck salt...

Tarentino is a hater.. Nothing more.. And his movies REALLY suck.. As much as we like Travolta and Jackson, my lovely wife and I could stomach only about 10 mins of PULP FICTION before we were actively retching...

There is no need to boycott his movies based on his Cop Hating spewage...

His movies suck.. Plain and simple..

Michale

Here are a couple of "raise your hand" rounds that I’m hoping to see:

1. Raise your hand if you support the police union PC campaign to completely destroy Quentin Tarantino for using his freedom to speak the truth about criminal cops .

2. Raise your hand if you support the christianist PC campaign to defeat The Starbucks War On Christmas by lying to minimum wage employees so that they’ll have to write Mary Krismuss on those red cups.