I don't know about an impending apocalypse. But, I do know that the baseball gods exist and they can just as easily smile upon your favourite team as damn them to defeat.

After that thing happened in the 7th inning of the division series against the Rangers, anything is possible ... except another inning as bizarre as that one. Of course, the only thing I'll remember about that game, though, is the bat flip. It was a sight to behold ... and proof again that context means everything.

If you haven't had a chance to watch that game or at least that inning, then you are missing out on the most memorable 7th inning, ever ... bar none.

The Blue Jays, the Cubbies, and the Mets are all in contention...

Is this some sort of sign of the impending apocalypse?

Heh.

I'm rooting for the Blue Jays and the Cubbies, personally...

:-)

-CW

Unless your friend has acquired Free ObamaPhones in quantity and sold them for drugs, your "offense" is misplaced....

"There can be no offense where none is taken.."
-Sarek Of Vulcan

:D

Michale

By the way, My friend who is in a wheel chair and is disabled has one of those free phone he depends on to call his doctors. So I take offense at your use of "lowlifes."

Which is that Americans are on the hook for the free Obamaphones..

Obamaphones that are acquired by lowlifes in quantity and sold for drugs etc etc...

Like I said.. The Democrat Party is the Party Of Free Stuff, Free Rides, Free Obamaphones, Cradle To Grave Welfare....

Just another form of Slavery....

So, apparently, the Democrat Party has NOT changed it's Slave Master ways, eh??

Just found a different form of enslavement...

Michale

"If you want to see me TOTALLY decimate your argument, JM... You'll have to click on the link. :D"

Hardly decimated Michale. Besides, if you want to get really technical; The idea of providing low-income individuals with subsidized (landline) phone service actually originated in the Reagan administration following the break-up of AT&T in 1984. :-D

Insurrection Erupts at the Democratic National Committee
Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz's autocratic ways in limiting the number of primary debates, insiders say, alienated many of her colleagues. And the problem may get worse.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-16/insurrection-erupts-at-the-democratic-national-committee

Yes, the GOP has a Friendly Fire problem..

Apparently, the Democrat Party is arse-deep in it as well... :D

Michale

If you want to see me TOTALLY decimate your argument, JM... You'll have to click on the link. :D

http://sjfm.us/temp/cw-commentary7.jpg

Michale

Yea, that's the Democrat Party spin..

The federal program dates back to 1996; it was part of the Telecommunications Act of 1996. The Act did a number of things, including increasing internet access to doctors and patients in rural hospitals (for consults with specialists); subsidizing internet and phone coverage for schools and libraries and providing free or subsidized coverage for families who can’t afford it so that they have links to emergency and government services. The Act was not taxpayer funded… exactly. Taxpayers do pay for coverage but not via federal income taxes. Instead, the Act “mandated the creation of the universal service fund (USF) into which all telecommunications providers are required to contribute a percentage of their interstate and international end-user telecommunications revenues.” So that little fee on your phone bill labeled USF? That’s what you’re paying for.

Michale

Yea, that's the Democrat Party spin..

The FACT, though, is that, while Americans don't pay for the program thru taxes, they DO pay for the program thru the extra USF (Universal Service Fund) fees that the TelComs add to people's bills...

So... Yes, the program exists. No, it’s not an Obama administration program. Yes, taxpayers support it but no, not through federal income taxes.

Michale

Yea, that's the Democrat Party spin..

The FACT, though, is that, while Americans don't pay for the program thru taxes, they DO pay for the program thru the extra USF (Universal Service Fund) fees that the TelComs add to people's bills...

The federal program dates back to 1996; it was part of the Telecommunications Act of 1996. The Act did a number of things, including increasing internet access to doctors and patients in rural hospitals (for consults with specialists); subsidizing internet and phone coverage for schools and libraries and providing free or subsidized coverage for families who can’t afford it so that they have links to emergency and government services. The Act was not taxpayer funded… exactly. Taxpayers do pay for coverage but not via federal income taxes. Instead, the Act “mandated the creation of the universal service fund (USF) into which all telecommunications providers are required to contribute a percentage of their interstate and international end-user telecommunications revenues.” So that little fee on your phone bill labeled USF? That’s what you’re paying for.

So... Yes, the program exists. No, it’s not an Obama administration program. Yes, taxpayers support it but no, not through federal income taxes.

Michale

It exists as much as "ObamaCare" and "ObamaTrade" exists...

It was actually started in 2008 under George W. Bush

Actually, it started in 1996 under President Clinton... It was expanded to include cell phones under Bush in '08...

But it EXPLODED under Obama....

Michale

It exists as much as "ObamaCare" and "ObamaTrade" exists...

It was actually started in 2008 under George W. Bush

Actually, it started in 1996 under President Clinton... It was expanded to include cell phones under Bush in '08...

But it EXPLODED under Obama....

The program is paid for by telecommunications companies through an independent non-profit, and is NOT funded by the government or ANY taxpayer money.

Yea, that's the Democrat Party spin..

The FACT, though, is that, while Americans don't pay for the program thru taxes, they DO pay for the program thru the extra USF (Universal Service Fund) fees that the TelComs add to people's bills...

The federal program dates back to 1996; it was part of the Telecommunications Act of 1996. The Act did a number of things, including increasing internet access to doctors and patients in rural hospitals (for consults with specialists); subsidizing internet and phone coverage for schools and libraries and providing free or subsidized coverage for families who can’t afford it so that they have links to emergency and government services. The Act was not taxpayer funded… exactly. Taxpayers do pay for coverage but not via federal income taxes. Instead, the Act “mandated the creation of the universal service fund (USF) into which all telecommunications providers are required to contribute a percentage of their interstate and international end-user telecommunications revenues.” So that little fee on your phone bill labeled USF? That’s what you’re paying for.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2012/02/12/are-taxpayers-paying-for-free-cell-phones/

I am surprised that you continue to buy in and push this right wing urban myth Michale.

Yea, there is SOMEONE passing off myth as fact around here..

But it ain't me.. :D

Michale

"Party of Free ObamaPhones"

Except there is one problem with the Obama Phone: It DOESN'T exist. It was actually started in 2008 under George W. Bush.

The program is paid for by telecommunications companies through an independent non-profit, and is NOT funded by the government or ANY taxpayer money.

I am surprised that you continue to buy in and push this right wing urban myth Michale.

"Party of Free ObamaPhones"

Except there is one problem with the Obama Phone: It DOESN'T exist. The program is called "SafeLink." It was actually started in 2008 under George W. Bush. It provides free or low cost cell phones.

The program is paid for by telecommunications companies through an independent non-profit, and is NOT funded by the government or ANY taxpayer money.

The idea of providing low-income individuals with subsidized (landline) phone service actually originated in the Reagan administration following the break-up of AT&T in 1984. (It was expanded and formalized by the Telecommunications Act of 1996.)

With modern fact checking so readily available, I am surprised that you continue to buy in and push this right wing urban myth Michale.

That's not a big deal...

"What would you say if I called you a brutish fossil, a neanderthal, symbolic of a decayed era gratefully forgotten?"
"Oh, I dunno... Thanks???"
-Demolition Man

:D

and "homophobes" because he has.

Now THAT is just crazy...

NO ONE is afraid of gay people.. They are just pissed off (correctly, IMNSHO) that gay people don't have ANY tolerance or ANY respect for other people's beliefs and feelings..

That is not fear...

Anyone who calls people "homophobe" are simply ignorant...

Michale

Biden has made a point of working across the aisle and while there has been rivalry, there has never been the blatant hatred from Biden that has come from other Democrats..

For example, I can not CONCEIVE that Biden would ever refer to Republicans as "terrorists" and "arsonists" etc etc..

Biden has my respect....

Michale

Extremely unlikely, since Biden even more so than Clinton or Sanders would be an Obama 3rd term..

Having said that, I *DID* have to think about for a moment or two...

So, that's something. :D

Michale

Which makes Biden 100 times the Candidate and 1000 times the human being that Clinton is...

Michale

You see what I'm saying? Biden doesn't carry that baggage and is far from being a polarizing pol.

I was asking why it is that you think Hillary would be a better Dem presidential nominee than Biden with regard to preventing Republicans from maintaining control of Congress after the 2016 presidential election.

It boils down to a big head start in terms of organization and money. Direct access to WJC is a big plus as well.

"Party of Free ObamaPhones"

Except there is one problem with the ObamaPhone: It DOESN'T exist. The program is called "SafeLink." It was actually started in 2008 under George W. Bush to provide free or low cost cell phones to the poor or disabled and elderly who may not otherwise be able to afford one.

The program is paid for by telecom companies through an independent non-profit, and is NOT funded by the government or by ANY taxpayer money.

The idea of providing low-income individuals with subsidized (landline) phone service originated in the Reagan Administration following the break-up of AT&T in 1984.

With fact checking so readily available, I am surprised that you continue to buy into and push this right wing urban myth Michale.

I personally think he has very strong credentials to be President. I would vote for him should he claim the nomination - but at this time, I don't see him as the strongest Democratic choice. I judge Clinton stronger at this time. My primary consideration is keeping the Republicans from controlling House, Senate and White House.

Why do you see Clinton as being stronger than Biden in terms of preventing Republicans from controlling the WH, Senate and House?

That kind of thinking betrays a fundamental MIS -understanding of what makes Biden tick. If he enters the race, he will do so because he believes with every fiber of his being that the country he loves - NOT the party he belongs to - would benefit from at least four years of his leadership.

If Biden has reached these conclusion - which I think is entirely possible - he will not enter the race. Period.

You may think that is a noble reason for entering the race but, you are wrong to believe and state that Biden will enter the race to cover the downside risk to his party.

That kind of thinking betrays a fundamental understanding of what makes Biden tick. If he enters the race, he will do so because he believes with every fiber of his being that the country he loves - NOT the party he belongs to - would benefit from at least four years of his leadership.

If Biden enters the race, I think it will be because he firmly believes that he is the best positioned with the clearest vision to succeed the Obama administration, to finish unfinished business and to set a new and more effective course - domestically and internationally - in promoting and implementing policies and strategies that will maintain the promise of America and strengthen America's global leadership role.

Biden will NOT enter another presidential campaign to be a wingman or anything else for the Democratic party.

"Party of Free ObamaPhones"

Except there is one problem with the Obama Phone: It DOESN'T exist. The program is called "SafeLink." It was actually started in 2008 under George W. Bush. It provides free or low cost cell phones. The program is paid for by telecommunications companies through an independent non-profit, and is NOT funded by the government or ANY taxpayer money. The idea of providing low-income individuals with subsidized (landline) phone service actually originated in the Reagan administration following the break-up of AT&T in 1984. (It was expanded and formalized by the Telecommunications Act of 1996.) With modern fact checking so readily available, I am surprised that you continue to buy in and push this right wing urban myth Michale.

Except there is one problem with the Obama Phone: It DOESN'T exist. The program is called "SafeLink." It was actually started in 2008 under George W. Bush. It provides free or low cost cell phones.

The program is paid for by telecommunications companies through an independent non-profit, and is NOT funded by the government or ANY taxpayer money.

The idea of providing low-income individuals with subsidized (landline) phone service actually originated in the Reagan administration following the break-up of AT&T in 1984. (It was expanded and formalized by the Telecommunications Act of 1996.)

With modern fact checking so readily available, I am surprised that you continue to buy in and push this right wing urban myth.

"Party of Free ObamaPhones"

Except there is one problem with the Obama Phone: It DOESN'T exist. It was actually started in 2008 under George W. Bush.

The program is paid for by telecommunications companies through an independent non-profit, and is NOT funded by the government or ANY taxpayer money.

The idea of providing low-income individuals with subsidized (landline) phone service actually originated in the Reagan administration following the break-up of AT&T in 1984. (It was expanded and formalized by the Telecommunications Act of 1996.)

With modern fact checking so readily available, I am surprised that you continue to buy in and push this right wing urban myth Michale.

The program is paid for by telecommunications companies through an independent non-profit, and is NOT funded by the government or ANY taxpayer money.

The idea of providing low-income individuals with subsidized (landline) phone service actually originated in the Reagan administration following the break-up of AT&T in 1984. (It was expanded and formalized by the Telecommunications Act of 1996.)

With modern fact checking so readily available, I am surprised that you continue to buy in and push this right wing urban myth Michale.

"Party of Free ObamaPhones"

Except there is one problem with the Obama Phone: It DOESN'T exist. The program is called "SafeLink." It was actually started in 2008 under George W. Bush. It provides free or low cost cell phones.

The program is paid for by telecommunications companies through an independent non-profit, and is NOT funded by the government or ANY taxpayer money.

The idea of providing low-income individuals with subsidized (landline) phone service actually originated in the Reagan administration following the break-up of AT&T in 1984. (It was expanded and formalized by the Telecommunications Act of 1996.)

With fact checking so readily available, I am surprised that you continue to buy in and push this right wing urban myth Michale.

"Party of Free Obama Phones"

Except there is one problem with the Obama Phone: It DOESN'T exist. The program is called "Safe Link." It was actually started in 2008 under George W. Bush. It provides free or low cost cell phones.

The program is paid for by telecommunications companies through an independent non-profit, and is NOT funded by the government or ANY taxpayer money.

The idea of providing low-income individuals with subsidized (landline) phone service actually originated in the Reagan administration following the break-up of AT&T in 1984. (It was expanded and formalized by the Telecommunications Act of 1996.)

With modern fact checking so readily available, I am surprised that you continue to buy in and push this right wing urban myth Michale.

"Party of Free ObamaPhones"

Except there is one problem with the Obama Phone: It DOESN'T exist. The program is called "SafeLink." It was actually started in 2008 under George W. Bush. It provides free or low cost cell phones.

The program is paid for by telecommunications companies through an independent non-profit, and is NOT funded by the government or ANY taxpayer money.

The idea of providing low-income individuals with subsidized (landline) phone service actually originated in the Reagan administration following the break-up of AT&T in 1984. (It was expanded and formalized by the Telecommunications Act of 1996.)

With modern fact checking so readily available, I am surprised that you continue to buy in and push this right wing urban myth Michale.

A spare tire is a bet-hedge. Prudent redundancy. I always carry one that works, even if only for 60 miles, and driving very slowly at that....cause walking is much, much slower.

I admire Biden. I like his straight talk. I like his work ethic. I like his working class politics. Biden and Sanders are probably the least wealthy senators...because they focus on their jobs. I hope Biden enters the race, but he is entering late.

Biden is a political realist. He knows how hard it will be to start late, and that the odds are very much against him. It's going to be hard to raise money to run a competitive campaign. He knows his strong standing in the polls is a bit of an illusion...the novelty factor, which is propping up a lot of candidates on the Republican side. He also knows that Sanders is a problematic sale to both the Democratic base and the broader electorate. He knows Clinton is pretty formidable, maybe not in the polls (although relatively speaking, she is doing well in the polls)but in terms of the fundamentals, which are much more important early in the cycle. He also knows that Clinton could falter. It has happened once before in the primaries, it could happen again.

If Biden enters, he will do so to cover the downside risk to his party. I think that is a noble reason for getting into the race. Especially given the body blow of losing his son. Not that he wouldn't loveto President. Not that he wouldn't be a good President...I personally think he has very strong credentials to be President. I would vote for him should he claim the nomination - but at this time, I don't see him as the strongest Democratic choice. I judge Clinton stronger at this time. My primary consideration is keeping the Republicans from controlling House, Senate and White House.

There is nothing wrong with being a wingman covering the lead element. It's just sound tactics. Biden is Party Man, he wants a Democrat in the WH. Maybe that's a more comfortable analogy to give to you than a humble spare tire.

If this be ridiculous and non-serious, let us make the most of it.

I recommend PredictWise, which is a composite prediction using BetFair, PredictIt, bookies and polls. It typically gives predictions very similar to Betair and is an easy way to track all the above markets on a day to day basis.

Way cool. Thanks! Agreed -- volume is very important.

Let's face reality..

Did LBJ push that because he felt that black Americans had been wronged??

LBJ quotes from the time that his actions were motivated by Party philosophy and agenda more than any altruistic motivations..

Now, granted... Doing the right thing for the wrong reasons is STILL doing the RIGHT thing...

But let's not make it into something it's not.. The Democrat Party is the Party of Free Stuff, the Party of Free ObamaPhones and the Party of Cradle To Grave Welfare...

The actions of LBJ were simply in keeping with the Party philosophy and agenda...

They were the actions of a crass, greedy and corrupt politician... NOT the actions of a humanitarian...

Michale

That is one of the most ridiculous and non-serious statements I have ever read ... here or anywhere else.

One has to wonder what Clinton would have to do to cause the Left Wingery to say, "Hmmmm That's not right.."

Murder someone on prime time national TV??

I doubt even THAT would even cause a problem for the Left..

No, about the only thing I can think of that would cause Clinton to be shunned is if she announced she was switching Partys...

Michale

Beer.... It's not just for breakfast anymore... :D

Michale

Betfair, as of this AM, gives Trump about a 6% chance of being the next President.

Richard-24

I follow PreditIt too, but it's a bit clunky to search...but very detailed if you have the time. Another plus, it actually labels the date on the X-axis, which BetFair doesn't do (??!!). The volume of trade and the amount of money staked is much larger at Betfair, and I think volume is important.

All interested wonks and wonkettes:

I recommend PredictWise, which is a composite prediction using BetFair, PredictIt, bookies and polls. It typically gives predictions very similar to Betair and is an easy way to track all the above markets on a day to day basis.

M-24

My gut sez:

The odds of a Dem vs a Rep being the next President are about 60%:40%. This is about where the prediction markets are tracking, and have been for some time. These number sit comfortably in my gut this early in the game, purely on electoral college fundamentals. Much could change, only a fool doesn't hedge this far out from the big event!

Clinton is a strong favorite to win the Democratic nomination, but is not invincible. Sanders primary motivation for entering the race is to force Clinton left, but if fate gives him the nomination, he will accept. He is very unlikely to make an independent run for President (note the hand shake at the debate). Biden is a spare tire if Clinton suffers a blow out on the way to the convention, which I think unlikely. The rest of the field - DOA.

The Republicans started Swift Boating Clinton too early. Cry Wolf Syndrome will weaken future attempts.

Bush is a very weak favorite to win the nomination, my gut tells me Rubio is going to give him a real battle. Trump will bow out, his motivation is to build his brand, branding, not properties is the main source of his cash flow. Everybody else in the Republican field is a dark horse shading into the dead horses Paul, Graham and Jindal.

My gut is telling me breakfast as of now. Late start today, coffee alone will not do.

While it's true that I have been known to do that on occasion.. :D

This is not one of those occasions..

To follow your logic Michale, since the election of Republican Lincoln to the Presidency was the precipitating factor for Southern secession, should the modern day Republican Party be made to assume the collective guilt for the Civil War and all the deaths it caused, except for the Democratic Party? Especially since Republicans are the self avowed modern day champions of states rights?

That's the way the LEFT would think about it..

My point is a simple one..

Blaming the GOP for non-existent institutionalized racism when it's established as fact that it was the Democrat Party that was the Party of Racism, the Party of the KKK, the Party of Slavery seems a bit disingenuous to me..

I mean, it might be different if ya'all could... yunno.. actually come up with SOME evidence of institutionalized racism..

But ya can't..

So, the solution is simple...

Either come up with some hard evidence that proves institutionalized racism within the GOP....

OR....

When throwing out baseless and fact-less accusations of institutionalized racism on the part of the Republican Party, acknowledge the REAL facts of the institutionalized racist history of the Democrat Party...

Is that so hard??

Michale

Now I am not as sure that he will throw his hat in the ring...

Michale

More people watched Jethro Gibbs and his team than watched the Democrat Party debate..

Heh :D

Michale

I must also point out that Hillary's showing amongst MALE voters is dismal.. Almost as bad is her showing amongst the Young vote...

She doesn't have the Independent vote. She doesn't have the Male vote... She doesn't have the Young vote..

How can she win??

Michale

Yes, true.. My point WOULD be stronger if it were the same moderator..

But, being that it's the same network whose bigwigs sign off on the process, it's still a valid point.

CNN wanted to stick it to the GOP and give a easier time to the Democrat Party..

You are correct. Right up until 1964, when LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act. Since then, the migration turned into a stampede. (See: history more recent than 1964, for further facts)

But, if Americans are "responsible" (IE collective guilt) for the actions of their slave owner ancestors, then the ONLY logical conclusion is that the Democrat Party is even MORE responsible...

In other words, the Left wants Americans as a whole to embrace the collective guilt, but the Democrat Party wants to absolve ITSELF of all responsibility..

And THAT is whacked...

The real polls will be out within the next week. It takes time to do a poll right. But I must confess, I have no idea what the polling will show. Did the public agree Hillary won? Or will they shift to Bernie? Remains to be seen... patience...

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cMXcgEwZw5E/T2MZ_WI0NRI/AAAAAAAACnk/ogqM2WvJlPc/s1600/vultures-patience-my-ass.jpg

:D

Thanks for some solid info. Haven't checked out RCP today yet.

RCP seems to have a new format. I don't like it much.. :(

Also, as you pointed out, "man, what a difference from the GOP!"

Who would you rather have as POTUS??

A fighter or an ass-kisser?? :D

Dang, I'm asking the same question you just did. That can't be right...

Heh.

G M T A :D

That's an excellent point, and one I think even Bernie supporters worry about. However, the bugaboo of the "socialism" label is a whole lot less pronounced among those who never experienced the Cold War (ie., millennials). But you're right, as Cooper put it "the ads just write themselves."

In all seriousness....

Bernie can't win the POTUS because of all the reasons mentioned..

Hillary can't win the POTUS because of her mortal wounds.. I know, I know, ya'all claim that no one cares about the Email scandal. But, the facts clearly show that no DEMOCRAT cares about the Email scandal.. Right Wing and Independent voters care a great deal about the Email scandal.. Why? Because it shows an APPALLING lack of good judgement..

Unless Biden enters the race I honestly don't see a way for the Democrat Party to keep the White House...

Michale

"I mean, if the Democrat Party, the Party OF the KKK, the Party OF Slavery, has absolutely NO responsibility towards their past, is completely exonerated from that past...."

We were talking about what philosophical groups CURRENTLY find their political party home to be, NOT HISTORICALLY to be. That's simply ALL the point I was trying to make, nothing else.

"So, what you are saying is that ALL Americans share the "collective guilt" of our ancestors vis a vis slavery and such...
EXCEPT the Democrat Party..."

That's NOT AT ALL what I am saying. Did you even read what I wrote? Or did you just use it to take the opportunity to write what you wanted, while totally ignoring a response to what I actually said? How did we get to where people who hold what possibly might be considered to be racist views consider themselves to have a current political home inside a major mainstream political party TO collective guilt over the issue of slavery? It is your logic that doesn't follow Michale.

To follow your logic Michale, since the election of Republican Lincoln to the Presidency was the precipitating factor for Southern secession, should the modern day Republican Party be made to assume the collective guilt for the Civil War and all the deaths it caused, except for the Democratic Party? Especially since Republicans are the self avowed modern day champions of states rights?

It is simply a FACT that modern day segregationists find themselves more comfortable inside the Republican Party than they do inside their historical home of the Democratic Party, since the Democratic Party is currently home to 90 percent of the African American vote and people the segregationists would call "communists." Fascists and Communists loathe each other, and can't exist inside the same political party, despite the love to some Republicans wanting to lump the two together inside the Democratic Party. They are diametrically opposed political philosophies on the scale of left to right.

I know, right!??

That's just what I said!! :D

Michale

Best response goes to Hillary Clinton for her response to the question about capitalism. To paraphrase, "We need to save capitalism from itself." This could have been the title of a Robert Reich book. Oh wait ... I think it is.

What's interesting to me is that corporate media declared Hillary the winner by a long shot today. And, strangely enough, all the exit polls and focus groups, declared Bernie the winner by a similarly wide margin.

The plot thickens ...

-David

Getting more worried about Clinton, I see... heh...

Action Film About Benghazi Attack May Be Irritant for Hillary Clinton
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/us/politics/action-film-about-benghazi-attack-may-be-irritant-for-hillary-clinton.html

Not even close...

The only thing that will MORE guarantee a GOP victory than Hillary NOT being the Dem candidate is Hillary being the Dem candidate... :D

Michale

I've heard this elsewhere, and I think it has more to do with the personalities of the debate moderators. If the same moderators had hosted both debates, your point would be stronger, in other words. I'm kind of astonished at the praise Anderson Cooper is getting today, because I thought he only did a competent job, at best.

[2 & 3] -

Getting more worried about Clinton, I see... heh...

[5] -

Yeah, Bernie obviously won the opinion war online. But as I predicted, pretty much all of the punditocracy proclaimed a big Hillary win.

[6] -

You are correct. Right up until 1964, when LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act. Since then, the migration turned into a stampede. (See: history more recent than 1964, for further facts)

John From Censornati [7] -

You are correct, they were not scientific polls. My thought was that Bernie supporters are akin to online marijuana reform supporters, but then take a look at the article I just posted...

Michale [8] -

The real polls will be out within the next week. It takes time to do a poll right. But I must confess, I have no idea what the polling will show. Did the public agree Hillary won? Or will they shift to Bernie? Remains to be seen... patience...

TheStig [10] -

I did miss the Clinton handshake after Bernie got off his "nobody cares about your damn emails" line. Saw it in a clip later...

Nice Catch-22 reference, too.

:-)

Michale [11] -

There are polls that are done scientifically, and there are "anybody can click in" polls. They're two different things. It's the difference between a popularity contest and statistical science.

Paula [12] -

Thanks for some solid info. Haven't checked out RCP today yet. Yeah, I think the upshot, in general, was: "Bernie and Hillary helped themselves. O'Malley was kinda OK, but nothing special. Why are the other two on the stage?"

Also, as you pointed out, "man, what a difference from the GOP!"

TheStig [15] -

Good point. It'll be interesting to see how the betting shifts in the next week, as well. Keep us posted!

rdnewman [16] -

The mainstream media crowned Hillary the winner! They're liberals... oh, wait, did that say "Red State"???

Heh.

TheStig [18] -

Aha! Data! Let's see how it changes when the first post-debate polls (the scientific ones) come in...

Michale [19] -

That's a good question. TheStig?

TheStig [23] -

Wow, that's pretty impressive. Where's Trump?

Michale [24] -

Dang, I'm asking the same question you just did. That can't be right...

Heh.

rdnewman [25] -

Aha! More data! I love it!

How's Webb and Chafee doing? Heh.

BashiBazouk [28] -

That's an excellent point, and one I think even Bernie supporters worry about. However, the bugaboo of the "socialism" label is a whole lot less pronounced among those who never experienced the Cold War (ie., millennials). But you're right, as Cooper put it "the ads just write themselves."

OK, made it to the end!

-CW

Thrown out there for your consideration...

Talk amongst yerselves.. :D

Michale

I would rather..... oh no, never mind.. :D

Michale

And Predictit.org shows...

Clinton: 50%
Bush: 22%
Sanders: 20%
Rubio: 19%
Trump: 14%
Fionina: 9%

One can still buy shares for Ms. Palin at $0.01/sh.

What's yer gut say??

"Yea, well right now, Mac outranks your gut."
-Jeff Daniels, SPEED

:D

The two top Republicans are Bush at 13% and Rubio about 10%.

No Trump?? :D

Michale

Betfair exchange gives Clinton about a 42% chance of being the next Prez, Sanders about 9%.

The two top Republicans are Bush at 13% and Rubio about 10%.

Your position kind kills the idea of slavery reparations, eh? :D

I mean, if the Democrat Party, the Party OF the KKK, the Party OF Slavery, has absolutely NO responsibility towards their past, is completely exonerated from that past....

Why the hell should Americans feel any guilt, let alone have to PAY for the guilt???

Michale

So, what you are saying is that ALL Americans share the "collective guilt" of our ancestors vis a vis slavery and such...

EXCEPT the Democrat Party... Which is utterly and completely DIVORCED from it's history of BEING the Party of the KKK, the Party of slavery and has absolutely NO responsibility "TODAY" for their past....

How exactly does that work??

I mean, if EVERY Americans shares the collective guilt of slavery, wouldn't that logically mean that the PARTY of Slavery, the PARTY of the KKK would share even MORE of that collective guilt??

Your position doesn't make sense..

Michale

"But Confederate has ALWAYS been and will ALWAYS be Democrat Party...

That's yer Party's history, sunshine.. Embrace it.. :D"

Historically yes. As I have said before, there is no dispute about that. HOWEVER, that is not the Democratic Party of TODAY. TODAY, the Confederates have indeed migrated to the Republican Party. A process that has happened during the Johnson/Nixon/Reagan ERA, with the Civil Rights Movement and the "Southern Strategy."

What do you prediction markets say about Clinton or Sanders winning the general?? :D

Michale

Clinton is currently given about a 75% chance of securing the nomination, close to her all time high of 80%. Sanders is a bit volatile around 15%, about 2% below his high water mark. Biden chances are half what they were immediately before the debate.

So your position is that ALL polling is worthless?

That's been my position consistently for the past decade or so..

Polls show the biases of the poll-takers based on the questions they ask and the way they ask them...

For example...

OBAMA POLL...

I think Obama is:

( ) ABOVE GOD

Bias of the Poll-Taker established.. :D

RD,

I'm just gonna leave this right here.

OK, so we have ONE person who thinks that Hillary won.... :D

Like I said, I really possibly could not POSSIBLY really care less than I do right now...

Ya'all want to have your coronation, far be it from me to interfere...

Since I can't participate in Primaries, I'll just kibbitz from the sidelines.. :D

Michale

(looks around, walks away quietly)

"They just show the biases of the poll takers, not the pollees..."

So your position is that ALL polling is worthless?
A kind of statistical masturbation? I would say that's a fair cop for most if not all volunteer polls, but would not go so far as to say scientific polling is entirely worthless. It produces estimates, and the estimates are subject to error. The error can be estimated, and part the error involves sample bias.

As I noted a few weeks ago, it's getting harder and more expensive to conduct scientific polling.
Some of this is due to rapid changes in mass communications, some is due to rapid shifts in demographics, and some is due to increased crankiness about responding to polls that eat up scarce free time. Meta analysis of multiple polls can mitigate these problems to some extent, but simply tweaking time honored pooling methodologies is no longer enough.

Statistical model and sampling procedures are evolving (nothing like a good kick in the head to encourage faster evolution), and increasingly I think these procedure are going to resemble incentivized prediction markets....like the ones I summarize now and again on this very blog.

Here's what I consider in evaluating any formal prognostication tool:

1) Methodological transparency
2) My own ability to understand the methodology
3) Credible outside critiques of the methodology
4) Track record

Drudge, Time, Slate fail 4 for 4 and are close enough to useless that I find them a waste of reading time.

{{cough, cough}} {{{cough, cough, cough, cough}}}...

Sorry... I just had to swallow something that was completely unbelievable... :D

Good night for both; moderate night for O'Malley and Webb and Chaffee made little progress for themselves. but contributed to a sense that the overall field was competent and no one is a "joke".

Well, I am sure happy that the Left didn't stoop to "demonizing" anyone, eh?? :D

Michale

If ya'all wanna crown Hillary the winner, far be it from me to stand in your way..

It just indicates that the coronation of Hillary Clinton is right on schedule... :D

Screw the masses! We have our Queen!! :D

Michale

Yet, they are perfectly acceptable to the Left (and Right) Wingery when they say what the Left (and Right) wants to say...

If you have polls that show Clinton won....

"I am all ears..."
-Ross Perot, 1992 Presidential Debates

With lack of opposing evidence, it appears that the Internet Denizens choose Bernie as their champion...

Personally, I couldn't POSSIBLY care less... :D

you are correct JFC!

Of course, JFC is right. He merely stated the exact same thing regarding polls that I have always said..

They just show the biases of the poll takers, not the pollees...

Michale

Democratic Debates look like PTA meetings, Republican Debates more like monster truck rallies...or maybe demolition derbies with Trump in the pack.

I'm not sure who did Clinton's makeover, possibly Industrial Light and Magic, but she appeared to have lost at least 15 years. IMHO media people tend to underestimate her considerable debating skills...she had a very good night. Best in show...

But not by much..Sanders looked like the only non-millionaire candidate, and sounded like one too. Strong performance from him on his economic positions, which seem to be pushing Clinton a bit left, which I think to be Sanders' primary reason for running in the first place. The guy knows politics.

M-5,8 possibly more, it's soooo hard to keep up with your output. "your prose is too prolix" - Ex PFC Wintergreen :-)

Drudge, Time, Slate. All internet "volunteer" aka "voodoo" polls. It's possible to conduct a scientific internet poll, but none of the above "need no stinkin' statistical rigor."

"Fan mail from some flounder?" - Bullwinkle J. Moose. At least Time has the decency to admit this. Easy to spam if you have a lot of internet friends, you are correct JFC!

AP FACT CHECK: Clinton, Sanders revise history in Dem debate
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151014/us--dem_2016-debate-fact_check-9882728f76.html

It's funny how the Left Wingery is so adamant about Fact Checking to hell and back with GOP'ers..

Yet, the Left gives their own candidates carte blanche on BS spewage...

Once again, proving the power of the almighty '-X' after a person's name...

Michale

Bastions of Left Wingery like TIME and SLATE don't mean anything.. :D

OK, JFC I'll be yer huckleberry... :D

You choose the polls.. :D

Michale

Sorry to burst yer bubble with facts, JFC...

But Confederate has ALWAYS been and will ALWAYS be Democrat Party...

That's yer Party's history, sunshine.. Embrace it.. :D

Michale

Sanders 60% Clinton 7%
polldaddy.com/poll/9125655/

TIME poll ALSO has Sanders winning by a large margin..

Sanders 58% Clinton 12%
time.com/4071956/democratic-debate-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-poll-who-won/

SLATE has Sanders winning by a whopping 75%!!

Sanders 75% Clinton 18%
slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/10/democratic_debate_who_won_vote_in_our_poll.html

I think it's safe to say that, in the eyes of Americans, Clinton felt The Bern... :D

Michale

Oh sure, the Clintonistas and Apologists love to point fingers at the GOP and scream hysterically, "VAST RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY!!!" but the simple fact is, Hillary has ONLY herself to blame.

It was HER choice to evade Congress and public disclosure and hide her actions behind a private insecure bathroom closet mailserver..

It was HER choice that risked national security and the lives of covert operators and agents..

As much as the Hysterical Left would like people to believe otherwise...

This is ALL, 1000%, unequivocally and unarguably on Hillary Clinton...

"These are the facts of the case. And they are undisputed."
-Captain Smilin' Jack Ross, A FEW GOOD MEN

Michale

And I am sure she was happy about that. :D

But that's the nice thing about this particular Clinton scandal..

In a couple weeks, we'll have a NEW batch of Clinton Emails and the whole process will start over and over... We'll find out more nasty deeds and lies of Hillary Clinton and we'll be reminded AGAIN how much of a liar and how untrustworthy she is..

She keeps going on and on about how her personal, homebrew insecure bathroom closet email server was "allowed"..

Yet, she cannot NAME the person who "allowed" it... She cannot come up with the person who "allowed" a personal, homebrew insecure bathroom closet email server to be used EXCLUSIVELY by the United States Secretary Of State...

Funny how that is, eh??

Enjoy your few minutes of scandal free air, Hillary.. Your next batch of emails is coming and then there will be more after that and more after that and more after that...

And ALL you had to do to avoid this was the ONE thing you are incapable of doing..

Coming clean..

Being honest..

Thinking of the country before yourself...

And millions on the Left will vote for her for POTUS??

"Fascinating..."
-Spock

Michale

That's because, in contrast to the GOP debate, CNN choose not to pit Dem against Dem...

Which is ANOTHER piece of evidence to prove the Left Wing slant of the MSM in general and CNN in particular..

CNN, pretty much, admitted that they wanted to sabotage the GOP side of the aisle, but wanted to HELP the Dem side as much as possible..

No Left Wing slant, my arse...

Michale