Comments on: In Defense Of Horserace Reporting http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/09/15/in-defense-of-horserace-reporting/ Reality-based political commentary Sun, 10 May 2026 13:21:36 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Chris Weigant http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/09/15/in-defense-of-horserace-reporting/#comment-64306 Chris Weigant Thu, 17 Sep 2015 05:34:19 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=11213#comment-64306 altohone - New column up! I went the extra mile and did a snap post-debate column. Enjoy! :-) -CW altohone -

New column up! I went the extra mile and did a snap post-debate column. Enjoy!

:-)

-CW

]]> By: altohone http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/09/15/in-defense-of-horserace-reporting/#comment-64300 altohone Thu, 17 Sep 2015 02:43:47 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=11213#comment-64300 Hey CW You forgot the most important reason! Feeding the political junkies. I need my fix. Where's the new column? How long til it's ready? Come on man, withdrawal is killing me. How about just a taste? A PS- I'm sort of joking... no pressure. Hey CW

You forgot the most important reason!

Feeding the political junkies.

I need my fix.
Where's the new column?
How long til it's ready?
Come on man, withdrawal is killing me.
How about just a taste?

A

PS- I'm sort of joking... no pressure.

]]> By: TheStig http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/09/15/in-defense-of-horserace-reporting/#comment-64277 TheStig Wed, 16 Sep 2015 16:03:47 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=11213#comment-64277 CW- Comments are still hanging in limbo for an unusually long time - the last post took about 20-30 seconds to clear. One or two seconds is more typical. CW- Comments are still hanging in limbo for an unusually long time - the last post took about 20-30 seconds to clear. One or two seconds is more typical.

]]> By: TheStig http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/09/15/in-defense-of-horserace-reporting/#comment-64276 TheStig Wed, 16 Sep 2015 15:52:20 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=11213#comment-64276 As we enter Mid-September and the 2nd debate, I think horserace polls provide a pretty good composite index of name recognition, entertainment value, social identity,general likeability and perceived electability, in roughly that order. That said, at this point in the process, I feel their predictive power (with respect to party nomination and the general election) is very low, but better than nothing. I strongly feel fundamentals (political experience, a seasoned apparatus and endorsements to name a few) are much more useful at this point. As the days grind on and on and on (cue montage of calendar sheets falling off a pad) the horserace polls become better and bettor predictors of actual election results, and very good predictors if you filter them thru the Electoral College (I recommend using a toilet plunger if the filter gets plugged - just kidding). All kidding aside, I think the order of the components mentioned in the first paragraph tends to reverse as voting get closer....much closer. Trump is doing quite well right now, although I'm not sure anybody can really be confident of how well. I'm pretty skeptical of conventional wisdom making the rounds. I think we can be more confident that Carson is moving up the ranks at a very high rate, and may be seriously undercutting The Donald's core support. Trump has a pretty big bulls eye on him. The biggest danger for him is that becomes predictable, like a sit-com catch phrase. If he ratchets up his pitch to new levels of politico-tainment, he runs the classic sit-com risk of "jumping-the-shark." That's when your audience switches channels. I don't think I can watch the debate live tonite. I'm off the cable grid. Probably for the best. I'll catch it soon enough on YouTube and can fast forword/backward as warranted. As we enter Mid-September and the 2nd debate, I think horserace polls provide a pretty good composite index of name recognition, entertainment value, social identity,general likeability and perceived electability, in roughly that order.

That said, at this point in the process, I feel their predictive power (with respect to party nomination and the general election) is very low, but better than nothing. I strongly feel fundamentals (political experience, a seasoned apparatus and endorsements to name a few) are much more useful at this point.

As the days grind on and on and on (cue montage of calendar sheets falling off a pad) the horserace polls become better and bettor predictors of actual election results, and very good predictors if you filter them thru the Electoral College (I recommend using a toilet plunger if the filter gets plugged - just kidding). All kidding aside, I think the order of the components mentioned in the first paragraph tends to reverse as voting get closer....much closer.

Trump is doing quite well right now, although I'm not sure anybody can really be confident of how well. I'm pretty skeptical of conventional wisdom making the rounds. I think we can be more confident that Carson is moving up the ranks at a very high rate, and may be seriously undercutting The Donald's core support. Trump has a pretty big bulls eye on him. The biggest danger for him is that becomes predictable, like a sit-com catch phrase. If he ratchets up his pitch to new levels of politico-tainment, he runs the classic sit-com risk of "jumping-the-shark." That's when your audience switches channels.

I don't think I can watch the debate live tonite. I'm off the cable grid. Probably for the best. I'll catch it soon enough on YouTube and can fast forword/backward as warranted.

]]> By: John From Censornati http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/09/15/in-defense-of-horserace-reporting/#comment-64275 John From Censornati Wed, 16 Sep 2015 10:11:16 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=11213#comment-64275 In his national security speech, Trump did say that he would fix the VA, and if he didn't, vets could go to "private" doctors and hospitals. It was terrific to hear him admit to being a loser before he even starts the project. In his national security speech, Trump did say that he would fix the VA, and if he didn't, vets could go to "private" doctors and hospitals. It was terrific to hear him admit to being a loser before he even starts the project.

]]> By: John From Censornati http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/09/15/in-defense-of-horserace-reporting/#comment-64274 John From Censornati Wed, 16 Sep 2015 05:31:01 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=11213#comment-64274 I watched Trump give his first major foreign policy speech this evening. Oddly enough, it sounded exactly like his other speeches - lots of bragging about himself. It didn't seem like a hoax at all. I watched Trump give his first major foreign policy speech this evening. Oddly enough, it sounded exactly like his other speeches - lots of bragging about himself. It didn't seem like a hoax at all.

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