Comments on: The GOP Field http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/08/20/the-gop-field/ Reality-based political commentary Sat, 02 May 2026 07:43:35 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Mopshell http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/08/20/the-gop-field/#comment-63079 Mopshell Tue, 25 Aug 2015 20:29:22 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=11104#comment-63079 Oh I knew Trump would do well and he will continue to do well, in spite of everything the Republicans throw at him! It's hilarious to watch! I like the woman who, when asked why she believed Trump would make America great again, replied "It's on his hat." That sums up his followers right there! Oh I knew Trump would do well and he will continue to do well, in spite of everything the Republicans throw at him! It's hilarious to watch! I like the woman who, when asked why she believed Trump would make America great again, replied "It's on his hat." That sums up his followers right there!

]]> By: TheStig http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/08/20/the-gop-field/#comment-62934 TheStig Fri, 21 Aug 2015 14:37:24 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=11104#comment-62934 One more point, the RCP site is a bitch navigate. Overheard at a meeting of political operatives..."we lost six good analysts in that jungle - God help them! One more point, the RCP site is a bitch navigate. Overheard at a meeting of political operatives..."we lost six good analysts in that jungle - God help them!

]]> By: TheStig http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/08/20/the-gop-field/#comment-62933 TheStig Fri, 21 Aug 2015 14:32:20 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=11104#comment-62933 Of all the poll categories over at RCP, I find the poll averages the least interesting....especially in large fields. Not worthless, it gives some idea of voter identification/passion, but primary and general election voters also consider a candidate's electability. They make strategic decisions, and will trade a bit of passion for a bigger chunk of electability. Favorable /unfavorable polls are much more informative IMHO, because they capture the strategic decision element better. If you contrast Trump and Bush, you find both candidates score roughly the same: about 1/3 favorable and 2/3 unfavorable. In other, most words, voters don't really like either choice all that much. If you ask Republicans to rank order their first and second choices, Trump is first choice for 24% and second choice for 13%. Bush is first choice 14% and 10% second choice. Given a margin of error +/- 4.5%, Bush can take some comfort in knowing he is a fairly 2nd choice, maybe. Interesting, but here's something more definitive. If you specifically ask who has the better chance of winning the presidency, Donald Trump, or someone else as the GOP nominee, it's 38% Donald, 58% some other candidate and 4% no opinion. Party affiliation makes no difference! Trump has a real electability hurdle. This is going to play out in the primaries. Bush's best gambit is to stress his electability as second favorite as opposed to a Trump who is much less likely to win. As weaker candidates drop out, Bush may find it easier to make this case to voters. In closing, the above is something to think about, and yes, you can and should apply the same reasoning to the Clinton/Sanders contest. All numbers cited are from the CNN/ORC poll of Aug. 18th. Of all the poll categories over at RCP, I find the poll averages the least interesting....especially in large fields. Not worthless, it gives some idea of voter identification/passion, but primary and general election voters also consider a candidate's electability. They make strategic decisions, and will trade a bit of passion for a bigger chunk of electability.

Favorable /unfavorable polls are much more informative IMHO, because they capture the strategic decision element better. If you contrast Trump and Bush, you find both candidates score roughly the same: about 1/3 favorable and 2/3 unfavorable. In other, most words, voters don't really like either choice all that much.

If you ask Republicans to rank order their first and second choices, Trump is first choice for 24% and second choice for 13%. Bush is first choice 14% and 10% second choice. Given a margin of error +/- 4.5%, Bush can take some comfort in knowing he is a fairly 2nd choice, maybe.

Interesting, but here's something more definitive.

If you specifically ask who has the better chance of winning the presidency, Donald Trump, or someone else as the GOP nominee, it's 38% Donald, 58% some other candidate and 4% no opinion. Party affiliation makes no difference! Trump has a real electability hurdle. This is going to play out in the primaries. Bush's best gambit is to stress his electability as second favorite as opposed to a Trump who is much less likely to win. As weaker candidates drop out, Bush may find it easier to make this case to voters.

In closing, the above is something to think about, and yes, you can and should apply the same reasoning to the Clinton/Sanders contest.

All numbers cited are from the CNN/ORC poll of Aug. 18th.

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/08/20/the-gop-field/#comment-62928 Michale Fri, 21 Aug 2015 09:07:16 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=11104#comment-62928 Well, I think one thing has been made clear.. Ya'all have completely and unequivocally under-estimated the appeal that Trump has to Joe and Jane SixPack... I said from the start that Trump is touching a nerve with everyday Americans who are fed up with Democrat incompetence.. Now, I am not one to toot my own horn.... But.... <B>Beep, Beep</B> :D Seriously, though.. Trumps ascension has only been made possible by the utter incompetence of the Democrats and their intransigent insistence on pushing their agenda at the expense of the American people.. Trump is THE candidate of the <B>WE'RE PISSED OFF AND WE'RE NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANYMORE!!</B> group Michale Well, I think one thing has been made clear..

Ya'all have completely and unequivocally under-estimated the appeal that Trump has to Joe and Jane SixPack...

I said from the start that Trump is touching a nerve with everyday Americans who are fed up with Democrat incompetence..

Now, I am not one to toot my own horn....

But.... Beep, Beep :D

Seriously, though.. Trumps ascension has only been made possible by the utter incompetence of the Democrats and their intransigent insistence on pushing their agenda at the expense of the American people..

Trump is THE candidate of the WE'RE PISSED OFF AND WE'RE NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANYMORE!! group

Michale

]]> By: Michale http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/08/20/the-gop-field/#comment-62927 Michale Fri, 21 Aug 2015 08:54:46 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=11104#comment-62927 David, <I>There were three big losers coming out of the first debate. Jeb Bush used to be leading the field, and now he's struggling to even stay in second place. He's seeing individual poll numbers in the single digits, and his average is down to 10.7 percent. His super PAC just announced they're spending millions on some early ads, which seems like a good idea at this point. If Jeb slips any further, he may not be able to recover. His weak and play-it-safe debate performance certainly didn't help.</I> Ready ta pick out yer T-Shirt?? :D Michale David,

There were three big losers coming out of the first debate. Jeb Bush used to be leading the field, and now he's struggling to even stay in second place. He's seeing individual poll numbers in the single digits, and his average is down to 10.7 percent. His super PAC just announced they're spending millions on some early ads, which seems like a good idea at this point. If Jeb slips any further, he may not be able to recover. His weak and play-it-safe debate performance certainly didn't help.

Ready ta pick out yer T-Shirt?? :D

Michale

]]> By: John From Censornati http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/08/20/the-gop-field/#comment-62925 John From Censornati Fri, 21 Aug 2015 07:00:39 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=11104#comment-62925 "Rand Paul continues to slide slowly downwards" This weekend, the KY GOP makes its decision about whether or not to ditch their primary in favor of a caucus so that Paul could run for both senator and president. They want him to pay for the caucus upfront and he hasn't done so. Everybody knows about the Paulcult's bribery scandal, so it probably hurts their feelings that he's holding out on them. "Rand Paul continues to slide slowly downwards"

This weekend, the KY GOP makes its decision about whether or not to ditch their primary in favor of a caucus so that Paul could run for both senator and president. They want him to pay for the caucus upfront and he hasn't done so. Everybody knows about the Paulcult's bribery scandal, so it probably hurts their feelings that he's holding out on them.

]]> By: John From Censornati http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/08/20/the-gop-field/#comment-62924 John From Censornati Fri, 21 Aug 2015 06:46:28 +0000 http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=11104#comment-62924 "If Jeb slips any further, he may not be able to recover." JEB has cornered the market on stupid, but he thinks everyone else is stupid. He really only has one strategy that would work and that is to admit that the idiot King George W started the fire and stop trying to blame it on somebody else. The rest of us are all painfully aware of what actually happened. Then he needs to pledge not to start any fires of his own. He should admit that he is a terrible person for using private email and promise to never speak Mexican again. "If Jeb slips any further, he may not be able to recover."

JEB has cornered the market on stupid, but he thinks everyone else is stupid. He really only has one strategy that would work and that is to admit that the idiot King George W started the fire and stop trying to blame it on somebody else. The rest of us are all painfully aware of what actually happened. Then he needs to pledge not to start any fires of his own. He should admit that he is a terrible person for using private email and promise to never speak Mexican again.

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