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	<title>Comments on: Crassly Calculating Political Risk</title>
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	<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/05/14/crassly-calculating-political-risk/</link>
	<description>Reality-based political commentary</description>
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		<title>By: dsws</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/05/14/crassly-calculating-political-risk/#comment-59472</link>
		<dc:creator>dsws</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 May 2015 18:28:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=10698#comment-59472</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;If the number of voters against political position P is less than the number of voters for it, then the candidate should come out for P...&lt;/i&gt;

Voters?  Don&#039;t you mean dollars?

More seriously, most of us have some issues where a politician can disagree with us and it&#039;s at most a tie-breaker, and other issues where it&#039;s a deal-breaker.  If an issue can motivate us to donate, it&#039;s more toward the deal-breaker end of the spectrum.

Just comparing the number of voters on each side misses that difference.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>If the number of voters against political position P is less than the number of voters for it, then the candidate should come out for P...</i></p>
<p>Voters?  Don't you mean dollars?</p>
<p>More seriously, most of us have some issues where a politician can disagree with us and it's at most a tie-breaker, and other issues where it's a deal-breaker.  If an issue can motivate us to donate, it's more toward the deal-breaker end of the spectrum.</p>
<p>Just comparing the number of voters on each side misses that difference.</p>
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		<title>By: TheStig</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/05/14/crassly-calculating-political-risk/#comment-59468</link>
		<dc:creator>TheStig</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 May 2015 13:30:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=10698#comment-59468</guid>
		<description>Without the tedium of actually fitting any data, I&#039;m guessing the Cynical Formula (CF) is a pretty adequate decision rule in small political estates, with a well established, stable majority block vs a minority block, over relatively short time scales. (Whew, long sentence).

That pretty much describes the vast majority of finally tuned (euphemism for Gerrymandered) House O&#039; Reps districts across the USA. Just get your ducks in line on every issue people in your Majority Block actually care about, and you can remain Representative for Life, or until you move up to a grander political office, where voters cannot be so intricately Gerrymandered into reliable knee jerking voting blocks. Or retire, and cash in your war chest. No triangulation is needed in this lush political ecology.  

I think it&#039;s no accident that Mr. Triangulation, Bill Clinton, cut his political teeth as governor of a state where Democrats and Republicans were genuinely competitive at the polling places. Or so archeologists tell us. Triangulation is just another way of looking at political consensus building, wooing people who can be wooed.  I suppose that can be viewed as cynical, but it can also be viewed a noble service, actually representing All The People with a capital P.  In Clinton context, lets say it&#039;s a from little column A, a little from B.

I would think triangulation is often a better decision rule in Presidential, Gubernatorial and Senate politics, where time scales are longer, populations more diverse and political boundaries can&#039;t be radically redrawn every decade. Even at these upper levels, genuinely competitive races are fairly rare, including only a dozen or so states in the Presidential sphere.

For a career politician, CF is nice if you can get it, safe and predictable. Any moron in a suite, with a staff and a budget can do it. In the early 21th Century, consensus building is viewed as weak and somehow immoral, like holding non-fundamentalist religious views.

Anyway, this article is a very nice thought experiment.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Without the tedium of actually fitting any data, I'm guessing the Cynical Formula (CF) is a pretty adequate decision rule in small political estates, with a well established, stable majority block vs a minority block, over relatively short time scales. (Whew, long sentence).</p>
<p>That pretty much describes the vast majority of finally tuned (euphemism for Gerrymandered) House O' Reps districts across the USA. Just get your ducks in line on every issue people in your Majority Block actually care about, and you can remain Representative for Life, or until you move up to a grander political office, where voters cannot be so intricately Gerrymandered into reliable knee jerking voting blocks. Or retire, and cash in your war chest. No triangulation is needed in this lush political ecology.  </p>
<p>I think it's no accident that Mr. Triangulation, Bill Clinton, cut his political teeth as governor of a state where Democrats and Republicans were genuinely competitive at the polling places. Or so archeologists tell us. Triangulation is just another way of looking at political consensus building, wooing people who can be wooed.  I suppose that can be viewed as cynical, but it can also be viewed a noble service, actually representing All The People with a capital P.  In Clinton context, lets say it's a from little column A, a little from B.</p>
<p>I would think triangulation is often a better decision rule in Presidential, Gubernatorial and Senate politics, where time scales are longer, populations more diverse and political boundaries can't be radically redrawn every decade. Even at these upper levels, genuinely competitive races are fairly rare, including only a dozen or so states in the Presidential sphere.</p>
<p>For a career politician, CF is nice if you can get it, safe and predictable. Any moron in a suite, with a staff and a budget can do it. In the early 21th Century, consensus building is viewed as weak and somehow immoral, like holding non-fundamentalist religious views.</p>
<p>Anyway, this article is a very nice thought experiment.</p>
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		<title>By: Michale</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/05/14/crassly-calculating-political-risk/#comment-59466</link>
		<dc:creator>Michale</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 May 2015 08:48:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=10698#comment-59466</guid>
		<description>If anyone honestly believe Jeb is going to be the GOP Candidate, I have some swampland in FL for sale..  :D

Jeb won&#039;t be the GOP Candidate for the same reason Hillary can&#039;t win the General Election..

The represent the past.. They are old and has-beens...  

Michale</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If anyone honestly believe Jeb is going to be the GOP Candidate, I have some swampland in FL for sale..  :D</p>
<p>Jeb won't be the GOP Candidate for the same reason Hillary can't win the General Election..</p>
<p>The represent the past.. They are old and has-beens...  </p>
<p>Michale</p>
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		<title>By: Michale</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/05/14/crassly-calculating-political-risk/#comment-59465</link>
		<dc:creator>Michale</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 May 2015 08:46:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=10698#comment-59465</guid>
		<description>Another great talent has left us..

BB King... 

RIP

Michale</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Another great talent has left us..</p>
<p>BB King... </p>
<p>RIP</p>
<p>Michale</p>
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		<title>By: Michale</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/05/14/crassly-calculating-political-risk/#comment-59464</link>
		<dc:creator>Michale</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 May 2015 08:40:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=10698#comment-59464</guid>
		<description>&lt;I&gt;Jumping forward to this week, Hillary Clinton has been noticeably absent in the debate over the free trade agreement (and giving the president fast-track negotiating authority) currently going on in Congress. Now, I&#039;m inclined to cut her a little slack for the moment, as her campaign is deliberately getting off to a gradual start, and they deserve to open Hillary&#039;s campaign in whatever fashion they choose. So far, it&#039;s been annoying the media no end, but it seems to be pretty well received among her supporters. &lt;/I&gt;

Of course it&#039;s well received amongst her supporters..

Her supporters know that all Hillary has to do is open her mouth and the American People will hate her..

Let&#039;s face it.. Hillary does not know how to campaign.  She doesn&#039;t know how to slap the backs and kiss the babies..

The ONLY time she can be in a group of Americans who like her is when she chooses the group and chooses the script..

When she can no longer be the decider, she is going to be crushed..

Paula,

&lt;I&gt;Every effing year here in Ohio the pubs trot out another round of their &quot;Keep Democrats from voting&quot; program. It&#039;s maddening and it is undemocratic.&lt;/I&gt;

As opposed to the Democrats &quot;Lets See How Many Illegals We Can Get To Vote&quot; programs???

Just as maddening...

Just as undemocratic..

But it&#039;s ALSO illegal as well..

The GOP games the system, true..  But it IS the system..

Democrats flat out commit crimes and break the law...

Michale</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Jumping forward to this week, Hillary Clinton has been noticeably absent in the debate over the free trade agreement (and giving the president fast-track negotiating authority) currently going on in Congress. Now, I'm inclined to cut her a little slack for the moment, as her campaign is deliberately getting off to a gradual start, and they deserve to open Hillary's campaign in whatever fashion they choose. So far, it's been annoying the media no end, but it seems to be pretty well received among her supporters. </i></p>
<p>Of course it's well received amongst her supporters..</p>
<p>Her supporters know that all Hillary has to do is open her mouth and the American People will hate her..</p>
<p>Let's face it.. Hillary does not know how to campaign.  She doesn't know how to slap the backs and kiss the babies..</p>
<p>The ONLY time she can be in a group of Americans who like her is when she chooses the group and chooses the script..</p>
<p>When she can no longer be the decider, she is going to be crushed..</p>
<p>Paula,</p>
<p><i>Every effing year here in Ohio the pubs trot out another round of their "Keep Democrats from voting" program. It's maddening and it is undemocratic.</i></p>
<p>As opposed to the Democrats "Lets See How Many Illegals We Can Get To Vote" programs???</p>
<p>Just as maddening...</p>
<p>Just as undemocratic..</p>
<p>But it's ALSO illegal as well..</p>
<p>The GOP games the system, true..  But it IS the system..</p>
<p>Democrats flat out commit crimes and break the law...</p>
<p>Michale</p>
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		<title>By: John From Censornati</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/05/14/crassly-calculating-political-risk/#comment-59460</link>
		<dc:creator>John From Censornati</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 May 2015 01:02:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=10698#comment-59460</guid>
		<description>You&#039;re not happy about it? It&#039;s amazing what a billion dollars can do about that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You're not happy about it? It's amazing what a billion dollars can do about that.</p>
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		<title>By: Paula</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisweigant.com/2015/05/14/crassly-calculating-political-risk/#comment-59459</link>
		<dc:creator>Paula</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 May 2015 00:54:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisweigant.com/?p=10698#comment-59459</guid>
		<description>Not exactly to you point, but I am thrilled to learn that Hillary&#039;s team is tackling Ohio&#039;s various and sundry election-suppression efforts, courtesy of the repubs in charge:
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/hillarys-lawyer-sues-ohio-thwart-voter-suppression-tactics-helped-gop-steal-ohio-2004#.VVKIgyaIlyQ.facebook

I&#039;m pleased because it says to me these folks bear no illusions anymore about the depths to which repubs will sink, and instead of &quot;hoping for the best&quot; they are tackling it head-on. I suppose they could lose at the Supremes but if they win it will be terrific. Every effing year here in Ohio the pubs trot out another round of their &quot;Keep Democrats from voting&quot; program. It&#039;s maddening and it is undemocratic. And, if successful, it will help whoever gets the nod on the Dem side so double-kudos to Hillary&#039;s team for this.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not exactly to you point, but I am thrilled to learn that Hillary's team is tackling Ohio's various and sundry election-suppression efforts, courtesy of the repubs in charge:<br />
<a href="http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/hillarys-lawyer-sues-ohio-thwart-voter-suppression-tactics-helped-gop-steal-ohio-2004#.VVKIgyaIlyQ.facebook" rel="nofollow">http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/hillarys-lawyer-sues-ohio-thwart-voter-suppression-tactics-helped-gop-steal-ohio-2004#.VVKIgyaIlyQ.facebook</a></p>
<p>I'm pleased because it says to me these folks bear no illusions anymore about the depths to which repubs will sink, and instead of "hoping for the best" they are tackling it head-on. I suppose they could lose at the Supremes but if they win it will be terrific. Every effing year here in Ohio the pubs trot out another round of their "Keep Democrats from voting" program. It's maddening and it is undemocratic. And, if successful, it will help whoever gets the nod on the Dem side so double-kudos to Hillary's team for this.</p>
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